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Thinking in Bets
- Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
- Narrado por: Annie Duke
- Duración: 6 h y 50 m
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Resumen del Editor
Wall Street Journal bestseller!
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
Reseñas de la Crítica
"A big favorite among investors these days."–The New York Times
"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world."–Marc Andreessen
"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work."–Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge
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Good book but not in audio format.
- De Viktar en 11-25-15
De: Peg Streep, y otros
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Performing Under Pressure
- The Science of Doing Your Best When It Matters Most
- De: Hendrie Weisinger, J. P. Pawliw-Fry
- Narrado por: Michael Butler Murray
- Duración: 11 h
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
Performing Under Pressure tackles the greatest obstacle to personal success, whether in a sales presentation, at home, on the golf course, interviewing for a job, or performing onstage at Carnegie Hall. Despite sports mythology, no one rises to the occasion under pressure and does better than they do in practice. The reality is pressure makes us do worse and sometimes leads us to fail utterly. But there are things we can do to diminish its effects on our performance.
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great book!
- De Family Account en 04-01-15
De: Hendrie Weisinger, y otros
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The Art of Strategy
- A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life
- De: Barry J. Nalebuff, Avinash K. Dixit
- Narrado por: Matthew Dudley
- Duración: 17 h y 2 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Game theory means rigorous strategic thinking. It’s the art of anticipating your opponent’s next moves, knowing full well that your rival is trying to do the same thing to you. Though parts of game theory involve simple common sense, much is counterintuitive, and it can only be mastered by developing a new way of seeing the world. Using a diverse array of rich case studies - from pop culture, TV, movies, sports, politics, and history - the authors show how nearly every business and personal interaction has a game-theory component to it.
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Completely misleading title
- De Motorjaw en 01-28-15
De: Barry J. Nalebuff, y otros
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In Defense of Troublemakers
- The Power of Dissent in Life and Business
- De: Charlan Nemeth
- Narrado por: Joyce Bean
- Duración: 6 h y 2 m
- Versión completa
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Historia
We've decided by consensus that consensus is good. In In Defense of Troublemakers, psychologist Charlan Nemeth argues that this principle is completely wrong: left unchallenged, the majority opinion is often biased, unoriginal, or false. It leads planes and markets to crash, causes juries to convict innocent people, and can quite literally make people think blue is green. In the name of comity, we embrace stupidity. We can make better decisions by embracing dissent. Dissent forces us to question the status quo, consider more information, and engage in creative decision-making.
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A Good Review of Group Thinking
- De J. Justice en 03-20-24
De: Charlan Nemeth
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I'm Afraid Debbie From Marketing Has Left for the Day
- How to Use Behavioural Design to Create Change in the Real World
- De: Morten Münster
- Narrado por: David Bateson
- Duración: 9 h y 27 m
- Versión completa
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With more than 50,000 copies sold in Denmark, this book has been on the bestseller list since its publication in 2017. Barack Obama used a secret competitive advantage to win two elections. Companies such as Google, Amazon and Novo Nordisk use the same insight to stir up innovation, increase compliance, improve the work environment and sell more products. And successful management groups in the C20 index have started using it as their preferred strategy. But what kind of insight are we talking about here? The answer is - behavioural design.
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Great, practical summary of behaviour design
- De Elena en 06-01-21
De: Morten Münster
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The Best Place to Work
- The Art and Science of Creating an Extraordinary Workplace
- De: Ron Friedman PhD
- Narrado por: Walter Dixon
- Duración: 8 h y 18 m
- Versión completa
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General
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In The Best Place to Work, award-winning psychologist Ron Friedman, Ph.D. uses the latest research from the fields of motivation, creativity, behavioral economics, neuroscience, and management to reveal what really makes us successful at work. Combining powerful stories with cutting edge findings, Friedman shows leaders at every level how they can use scientifically-proven techniques to promote smarter thinking, greater innovation, and stronger performance.
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Useful ideas and information past first chapters
- De superstasia en 07-12-17
De: Ron Friedman PhD
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Originals
- How Non-Conformists Move the World
- De: Adam Grant, Sheryl Sandberg - foreword
- Narrado por: Fred Sanders, Susan Denaker
- Duración: 10 h y 1 m
- Versión completa
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With Give and Take, Adam Grant not only introduced a landmark new paradigm for success but also established himself as one of his generation’s most compelling and provocative thought leaders. In Originals he again addresses the challenge of improving the world, but now from the perspective of becoming original: choosing to champion novel ideas and values that go against the grain, battle conformity, and buck outdated traditions. How can we originate new ideas, policies, and practices without risking it all?
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Interesting, but not science
- De Lloyd Fassett en 03-14-16
De: Adam Grant, y otros
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You Are Now Less Dumb
- How to Conquer Mob Mentality, How to Buy Happiness, and All the Other Ways to Outsmart Yourself
- De: David McRaney
- Narrado por: Don Hagen
- Duración: 8 h y 40 m
- Versión completa
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You Are Now Less Dumb is grounded in the idea that we all believe ourselves to be objective observers of reality - except we’re not. But that's okay, because our delusions keep us sane. Expanding on this premise, McRaney provides eye-opening analyses of 15 more ways we fool ourselves every day. This smart and highly entertaining audiobook will be wowing listeners for years to come.
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Not a lot of guidance
- De A. Yoshida en 02-08-14
De: David McRaney
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Friend and Foe
- When to Cooperate, When to Compete, and How to Succeed at Both
- De: Adam D. Galinsky, Maurice E. Schweitzer
- Narrado por: Tom Perkins
- Duración: 9 h y 1 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
In Friend and Foe, researchers Galinsky and Schweitzer explain why this debate misses the mark. Rather than being hardwired to compete or cooperate, humans have evolved to do both. It is only by learning how to strike the right balance between these two forces that we can improve our long-term relationships and get more of what we want.
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Unexpected
- De Garron Rose en 01-05-16
De: Adam D. Galinsky, y otros
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Commit to Win
- How to Harness the Four Elements of Commitment to Reach Your Goals
- De: Heidi Reeder PhD
- Narrado por: Heidi Reeder PhD
- Duración: 5 h y 55 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
What do you need besides motivation and willpower? In Commit to Win, Heidi Reeder, PhD, unpacks over forty years of research by psychologists and economists to show that the key to reaching any goal, whether it’s to hit the gym more often or to finally quit that dead-end job, isn’t motivation, willpower, or determination. It’s commitment. Busting the myths most of us believe about commitment, Reeder shows that it all comes down to four variables.
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Practical, but misses passion
- De ANDRÉ en 11-07-14
De: Heidi Reeder PhD
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Mindwise
- Why We Misunderstand What Others Think, Believe, Feel, and Want
- De: Nicholas Epley
- Narrado por: Nicholas Epley
- Duración: 6 h y 24 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
You are a mind reader, born with an extraordinary ability to understand what others think, feel, believe, want, and know. It's a sixth sense you use every day, in every personal and professional relationship you have. At its best, this ability allows you to achieve the most important goal in almost any life: connecting, deeply and intimately and honestly, to other human beings. At its worst, it is a source of misunderstanding and unnecessary conflict, leading to damaged relationships and broken dreams. How good are you at knowing the minds of others?
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Finally gave up - no real point
- De Thomas en 05-12-14
De: Nicholas Epley
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The Secret Thoughts of Successful Women
- Why Capable People Suffer from the Impostor Syndrome and How to Thrive in Spite of It
- De: Valerie Young
- Narrado por: Susan Ericksen
- Duración: 9 h y 38 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
It's only because they like me. I was in the right place at the right time. I just work harder than the others. I don't deserve this. It's just a matter of time before I am found out. Someone must have made a terrible mistake. If you are a working woman, chances are this internal monologue sounds all too familiar. And you're not alone. A shocking number of accomplished women in all career paths and at every level feel as though they are faking it - impostors in their own lives and careers.
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Don’t read between the title lines
- De Amazon Customer en 02-28-18
De: Valerie Young
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The Upside of Irrationality
- The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic at Work and at Home
- De: Dan Ariely
- Narrado por: Simon Jones
- Duración: 8 h y 18 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
In his groundbreaking book Predictably Irrational, social scientist Dan Ariely revealed the multiple biases that lead us into making unwise decisions. Now, in The Upside of Irrationality, he exposes the surprising negative and positive effects irrationality can have on our lives. Focusing on our behaviors at work and in relationships, he offers new insights and eye-opening truths about what really motivates us on the job.
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Not as good as the first
- De Stephen en 06-20-10
De: Dan Ariely
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The Upside of Your Dark Side
- Why Being Your Whole Self - Not Just Your "Good" Self - Drives Success and Fulfillment
- De: Todd Kashdan, Robert Biswas-Diener
- Narrado por: Jeff Cummings
- Duración: 8 h
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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In The Upside of Your Dark Side, two pioneering researchers in the field of psychology show that while mindfulness, kindness, and positivity can take us far, they cannot take us all the way. Sometimes, they can even hold us back. Emotions like anger, anxiety, or doubt might be uncomfortable, but it turns out that they are also incredibly useful.
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Boring and learned nothing
- De Taryn en 07-25-16
De: Todd Kashdan, y otros
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What entrepreneur or founder doesn't aspire to build the next Amazon, Facebook, or Airbnb? Yet those who actually manage to do so are exceedingly rare. So what separates the start-ups that get disrupted and disappear from the ones who grow to become global giants? The secret is blitzscaling: a set of techniques for scaling up at a dizzying pace that blows competitors out of the water.
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not much here.
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The Miracle Equation
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Hal Elrod, motivational speaker and author of the best-selling book The Miracle Morning, shares his "miracle equation", the secret to unlocking happiness, success, and your full potential. With the Miracle Equation 30-Day Challenge to guide your way, you’ll create a step-by-step plan to actualize your miracles and become the person you need to be in order to succeed. No goal is out of reach!
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This unique guide features the start-up stories of regular people launching side businesses that almost anyone can do: an urban tour guide, an artist inspired by maps, a travel site founder, an ice pop maker, and many more. In 100 Side Hustles, best-selling author of The $100 Startup Chris Guillebeau presents an "idea book" filled with inspiration for your next big idea. Distilled from Guillebeau's popular Side Hustle School podcast, these case studies feature teachers, artists, coders, and even entire families who've found ways to create new sources of income.
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The Third Door takes listeners on an unprecedented adventure—from hacking Warren Buffett’s shareholders meeting to chasing Larry King through a grocery store to celebrating in a nightclub with Lady Gaga—as Alex Banayan travels from icon to icon, decoding their success. After remarkable one-on-one interviews with Bill Gates, Maya Angelou, Steve Wozniak, Jane Goodall, Larry King, Jessica Alba, Pitbull, Tim Ferriss, Quincy Jones, and many more, Alex discovered the one key they have in common: they all took the Third Door.
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So, how do you change someone's mind - or at least advance the conversation - when everyone is entrenched in their own points of view? Communication expert Lee Hartley Carter has spent nearly 20 years advising and helping the world's most well-known companies do just that. Filled with deeply researched insights into how we make up - and change - our minds, as well as colorful real-world examples and actionable recommendations, Persuasion will help you hone your message and craft your narrative in order to get heard and get results.
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Conflict is going to be part of your life - as long as you have relationships, hold down a job, or have dry cleaning to be picked up. Bracing yourself against it won't make it go away, but if you approach it consciously, you can navigate it in a way that not only honors everyone involved but makes it a source of deep insight as well. Seasoned mediator Diane Hamilton provides the skill set you need to engage conflict with wisdom and compassion, and even - sometimes - to be grateful for it.
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Acuff knows the reason why many writers' novels go unfinished - it's the same reason why gyms are filled in the first week of January and empty by the end of the month and why people stop learning a new language once they get past the easy parts. It's not just that people lose momentum or get distracted. People give up on projects when they fail to live up to their own high expectations and decide that if they can't do something perfectly, they won't do it at all. If you're going to finish, you have to kill perfectionism.
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Hey you...you saw the title. You get the deal. You’re smart. You’ve made a few dollars. You’ve done what the financial books and websites tell you to do. So why isn’t it working? Maybe emotions and expectations are getting in the way of good sense - or you’re paying attention to the wrong people. If you’ve started counting your lattes, for god’s sake, just stop. Listen to this book instead. After decades of working as a Wall Street trader, investment adviser, and money expert for CBS News, Jill Schlesinger reveals 13 costly mistakes you may be making right now with your money.
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In his last book, Turn the Ship Around!, Marquet told the incredible story of abandoning command-and-control leadership on his submarine and empowering his crew to turn the worst performing submarine to the best performer in the fleet. Now, with Leadership is Language he gives businesspeople the tools they need to achieve such transformational leadership in their organizations.
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The Only Negotiating Guide You'll Ever Need, Revised and Updated
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In this book, you'll discover your negotiating behavioral style through self-assessment questionnaires, gain the tools needed to deal with negotiation sharks (or bullies), learn tips for recognizing and interpreting your negotiating counterpart's body language to create beneficial outcomes, and see examples on how to counter unethical and unprofessional tactics effectively — and much more.
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list or outline of for instances
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Financial Freedom
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Financial Freedom is a step-by-step path to make more money in less time, so you have more time for the things you love. It challenges the accepted narrative of spending decades working a traditional nine-to-five job, pinching pennies, and finally earning the right to retirement at age 65, and instead offers listeners an alternative: Forget everything you've ever learned about money so you can actually live the life you want.
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Meh...
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Wired for Story
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Imagine knowing what the brain craves from every tale it encounters, what fuels the success of any great story, and what keeps readers transfixed. Wired for Story reveals these cognitive secrets—and it’s a game-changer for anyone who has ever set pen to paper.
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Inspiring but boring
- De J. Hansen en 11-19-23
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Captivate
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Do you wish you could decode people? Do you want to know exactly what to say to your boss, your date, or your networking partner? You need to know how people work. As a human behavior investigator, Vanessa Van Edwards studies the hidden forces that drive our behavior patterns in her lab—and she's cracked the code. In Captivate she shares a wealth of valuable shortcuts, systems, and behavior hacks for taking charge of their interactions at work, at home, and in any social situation.
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Eh
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Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Thinking in Bets
Calificaciones medias de los clientesReseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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- C. Veloso
- 08-21-18
The functional version of Thinking Fast And Slow
Easily digestible. Immediately applicable. Information was not sacrificed for brevity. Not too long like Kahneman’s book.
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esto le resultó útil a 14 personas
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- Soheil
- 07-04-18
Required reading for all traders
Of all the books I have read, this book has made the most impact on my trading results. It takes a concept presented by Mark Douglas in Trading in the Zone and crystallizes it. For everyone who seeks certainty in trading and investing, this is a must read.
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esto le resultó útil a 11 personas
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- Azura S
- 11-13-18
Not Bad But A Bit Of A Restatement...
...of Thinking Fast and Slow. This is decently narrated (though I don't love the author's accent) and the ideas are completely sound. I just don't feel like it adds much to Kahneman's research even if it is told in poker terms rather than more general economic terms. Glad I read it. Would definitely read this author again.
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esto le resultó útil a 2 personas
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- Anonymous User
- 01-18-19
Good book
This is a good book
Starts of great, think the concept has good real world application, and the analogies and stories are used well however the book seems a little stretched out, could have been more concise
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esto le resultó útil a 1 persona
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- Mital
- 08-07-18
ENJOYABLE !!!
Very much enjoyed the book. Annie did a great job narrating.
Annie can't wait for your 2nd book!
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esto le resultó útil a 1 persona
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- T. Leach
- 07-02-18
Great book with life lessons
I will listen and team this book over and to calibrate my thinking. Great book
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esto le resultó útil a 1 persona
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- Anonymous User
- 04-27-18
Thinking in Bets without metrics
Although the Tyranny of Metrics argues against numbers, the one thing that would have helped a five star is numbers. Thinking in Bets is a great book and the author is an expert in poker and cognitive psychology, but numbers are too my opinion mandatory to underline statements. How often, what chance, how long etc.? Still a very nice book, probably most for novels in the field of cognitive traps, heuristics or decision making.
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- Jeffrey
- 05-19-18
A whole new set of tools for decision making
I burned right through this one and will listen again in a couple of weeks. Annie does a great job on multiple levels.
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- William
- 10-11-18
Really enjoyed this one.
Forces honest self examination. Different way of looking at learning that keeps truth seeking as primary objective.
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- Melvin
- 12-11-19
Excellent Book, it is a life changer...
Thinking in bets is a new philosophy that can change your life.
Listen to it with an open mind, start new thinking about the probabilities in your life instead of the results you have....
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