The Demographic Cliff

How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019

De: Harry S. Dent Jr.

Narrado por: Harry S. Dent Jr.

Duración: 11 h y 4 m

Resumen del Editor

Best-selling author and financial guru Harry Dent shows why we’re facing a "great deflation" after five years of desperate stimulus - and what to do about it now.

Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-so-secret weapon: demographics. Studying the predictable things people do as they age is the ultimate tool for understanding trends. For instance, Dent can tell a client exactly when people will spend the most on potato chips. And he can explain why our economy has risen and fallen with the peak spending of generations, and why we now face a growing demographic cliff with the accelerating retirement of the Baby Boomers around the world.

Dent predicted the impact of the Boomers hitting their highest growth in spending in the 1990s, when most economists saw the United States declining. And he anticipated the decline of Japan in the 1990s, when economists were proclaiming it would overtake the U.S. economy.

But now, Dent argues, the fundamental demographics have turned against the United States and will hit more countries ahead. Inflation rises when a larger than usual block of younger people enter the workforce, and it wanes when large numbers of older people retire, downsize their homes, and cut their spending. The mass retirement of the Boomers won’t just hold back inflation; it and massive debt deleveraging will actually cause deflation - weakening the economy the most from 2014 into 2019.

Dent explores the implications of his controversial predictions. He offers advice on retirement planning, health care, real estate, education, investing, and business strategies.

Dent shows that if you take the time to understand demographic data, using it to your advantage isn’t all that difficult. By following his suggestions, listeners will be able to find the upside to the downturn and learn how to survive and prosper during the most challenging years ahead.

©2014 Harry S. Dent, Jr. (P)2014 Brilliance Audio, all rights reserved.

great insights.

obviously Abe and Yellen have not read your book yet. maybe Angela Merkel has. xXxX

Needs a PDF

Good info, but needs a PDF with graphics for reference. I would have given it a higher rating if it had the PDF.

Very interesting and different view things!

If you could sum up The Demographic Cliff in three words, what would they be?

Quite long, lots of good reasoning, refreshingly different view on what's going on in the world.
He is probably very right, but I really hope he is wrong!

Interesting, but…

Interesting, very enjoyable perspective and insight with the special emphasis on demographics. Regrettably, there is way too much emotion in the narrative and way too few figures. The central thesis that the smaller number of working age adults going forward will put downward pressure on economies and be deflationary. Yet there is absolutely no statistical explanation of this belief. Super repetitive with the thesis argument. I just observe that when people feel so strongly and offer so few statistical and factual underpinnings, it undercuts the argument is being made. But it certainly encourages one to research the arguments and plan for these eventualities.

interesting, but questionable

Would you recommend this audiobook to a friend? If so, why?

Yes, because it makes one think about the potential for future change.

What did you like best about this story?

Acknowledging that demographic and population level changes just have to have an economic effect.

What does Harry S. Dent, Jr. bring to the story that you wouldn’t experience if you just read the book?

His passion for the topic. Though, to be fair, I bought the audio book to use the two hours of commute each day more equitably than listening to Miley Cyrus screech at me.

What insight do you think you’ll apply from The Demographic Cliff?

I haven't decided yet. Even though I'm almost fifty, I'm just getting off the ground in my 401k. If Dent's prediction of a demographic cliff striking soon comes to fruition, I have plenty of time to capitalize on that downside.

Any additional comments?

Dent has an image problem. There's a lot of negative press out there about him and his predictions. He mentions Tony Robbins a lot too, who has his own image issues. A lot of people think these guys are, to a greater or lesser extent, snake oil salesmen. I think a more concerted effort should be made by Dent to reasonably talk down his critics; not, I hasten to add, in a negative way, but in a constructive prove-my-pont sort of way.

Very good reading by author

Worth listening to often. Information is timely and to my mind, accurate. It should be given wide circulation.

Great ideas but missed target on some forecasts

The things the author predicts in this book may well still come to pass but clearly didn't happen in 2014 as predicted.

Pretty good

I found 90% of the book to be very interesting and informative. I hadn't really thought about the demographic aspect of how economies function. I like most of the book, excepting the portions were the author injected his political beliefs. The epilogue at the end was mostly garbage.

Outstanding Information -- a must read

In the demographic Cliff, Dent make a reasoned, well supported argument for his predictions. The first third of the book is very slow because he spends a great deal of time convincing you of his solid record in past predictions -- of course they have worked out well or why would he write another book?

That sarcasm aside, he makes a very convincing argument and it dovetails with other books like "The Next 100 years" and Freakonomics. I think this is a must read -- think it over, his argument does make common sense.

The good parts and the bad parts

Would you recommend this book to a friend? Why or why not?

Probably not. The book doesn't fully fulfill its promise in my opinion.

What could Harry S. Dent, Jr. have done to make this a more enjoyable book for you?

To base the numerous conclusions on facts. To avoid proving things using a few examples and rounded up statistics which I guess is also derived from a few examples. In particular the author talks about "cycles" he discovered, however, it's not clear how he discovered those cycles, why he thinks those past examples apply to current situation, and with what certainty.

Have you listened to any of Harry S. Dent, Jr.’s other performances before? How does this one compare?

No

What did you take away from The Demographic Cliff that you can apply to your work?

The demographic analysis is described very good. I wish the whole book would follow the same style as the parts about nations getting close and falling off the demographic cliff.

Any additional comments?

I would recommend this book to someone who is interested in understanding the world demographic situation in the context of the recent financial crisis and the coming one. However, the authors conclusions regarding the deflation period after the next crisis are weak, and as it seems to me, even sometimes contradictory.