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Bernoulli's Fallacy
- Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science
- Narrado por: Tim H. Dixon
- Duración: 15 h y 14 m
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Resumen del Editor
There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: It underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy, with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations.
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Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for listeners interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach - that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information - in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli’s Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data - and how to fix it.
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Throughout his distinguished and unconventional career, engineer-turned-molecular-biologist Douglas Axe has been asking the questions that much of the scientific community would rather silence. Now, he presents his conclusions in this brave and pioneering book. Axe argues that the key to understanding our origin is the "design intuition" - the innate belief held by all humans that tasks we would need knowledge to accomplish can be accomplished only by someone who has that knowledge.
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Seductively Challenge what are consider facts
- De Rafael Vila en 10-08-16
De: Douglas Axe
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Is God a Mathematician?
- De: Mario Livio
- Narrado por: Tom Parks
- Duración: 9 h y 4 m
- Versión completa
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Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner once wondered about "the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics" in the formulation of the laws of nature. Is God a Mathematician? investigates why mathematics is as powerful as it is. From ancient times to the present, scientists and philosophers have marveled at how such a seemingly abstract discipline could so perfectly explain the natural world. More than that - mathematics has often made predictions, for example, about subatomic particles or cosmic phenomena that were unknown at the time, but later were proven to be true.
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Origins of Mathematics
- De Rick B en 07-08-21
De: Mario Livio
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The Structure of Scientific Revolutions
- De: Thomas S. Kuhn
- Narrado por: Dennis Holland
- Duración: 10 h y 14 m
- Versión completa
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Historia
A good book may have the power to change the way we see the world, but a great book actually becomes part of our daily consciousness, pervading our thinking to the point that we take it for granted, and we forget how provocative and challenging its ideas once were - and still are. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions is that kind of book.
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The problem is not with the book
- De Marcus en 08-09-09
De: Thomas S. Kuhn
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The Landscape of History
- How Historians Map the Past
- De: John Lewis Gaddis
- Narrado por: Jack Chekijian
- Duración: 6 h y 16 m
- Versión completa
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Historia
What is history, and why should we study it? Is there such a thing as historical truth? Is history a science? One of the most accomplished historians at work today, John Lewis Gaddis, answers these and other questions in this short, witty, and humane book. The Landscape of History provides a searching look at the historian's craft as well as a strong argument for why a historical consciousness should matter to us today.
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Excellent Book!
- De Billy en 09-15-18
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Expert Political Judgment
- How Good is it? How can We Know?
- De: Philip E. Tetlock
- Narrado por: Anthony Haden Salerno
- Duración: 9 h y 48 m
- Versión completa
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The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future.
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Five-star book, one-star reading
- De Christian Tarsney en 01-23-19
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The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- De: Shane Parrish
- Narrado por: Shane Parrish
- Duración: 3 h y 23 m
- Versión completa
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The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
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A dissapointing debut
- De Peter en 04-14-19
De: Shane Parrish
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The Genetic Lottery
- Why DNA Matters for Social Equality
- De: Kathryn Paige Harden
- Narrado por: Katherine Fenton
- Duración: 10 h y 4 m
- Versión completa
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Historia
In The Genetic Lottery, Harden introduces listeners to the latest genetic science, dismantling dangerous ideas about racial superiority and challenging us to grapple with what equality really means in a world where people are born different. Weaving together personal stories with scientific evidence, Harden shows why our refusal to recognize the power of DNA perpetuates the myth of meritocracy, and argues that we must acknowledge the role of genetic luck if we are ever to create a fair society.
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Mix of Genetic Science and Ideology
- De James en 10-12-21
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Why Darwin Matters
- The Case for Evolution and Against Intelligent Design
- De: Michael Shermer
- Narrado por: uncredited
- Duración: 4 h y 22 m
- Versión resumida
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Historia
Columnist and publisher Michael Shermer, once an evangelical Christian and a creationist, argues that Intelligent Design proponents invoke a combination of ad science, political antipathy, and flawed theology in their new brand of creationism. He refutes their pseudoscientific arguments and then demonstrates why conservatives and people of faith can and should embrace evolution. Why Darwin Matters is an incisive examination of what is at stake in the debate over evolution.
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TOTAL MISREPRENTATION: WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE?
- De Theo Tsourdalakis en 09-04-11
De: Michael Shermer
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Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking
- De: Daniel C. Dennett
- Narrado por: Jeff Crawford
- Duración: 13 h y 22 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Over a storied career, Daniel C. Dennett has engaged questions about science and the workings of the mind. His answers have combined rigorous argument with strong empirical grounding. And a lot of fun. Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking offers seventy-seven of Dennett’s most successful “imagination-extenders and focus-holders” meant to guide you through some of life’s most treacherous subject matter: evolution, meaning, mind, and free will.
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Loved it, but some philosophy background needed.
- De LongerILiveLessIKnow en 11-14-13
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When Einstein Walked with Gödel
- Excursions to the Edge of Thought
- De: Jim Holt
- Narrado por: David Stifel
- Duración: 15 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
Does time exist? What is infinity? Why do mirrors reverse left and right but not up and down? In this scintillating collection, Holt explores the human mind, the cosmos, and the thinkers who’ve tried to encompass the latter with the former. With his trademark clarity and humor, Holt probes the mysteries of quantum mechanics, the quest for the foundations of mathematics, and the nature of logic and truth. Along the way, he offers intimate biographical sketches of celebrated and neglected thinkers, from the physicist Emmy Noether to the computing pioneer Alan Turing and the discoverer of fractals, Benoit Mandelbrot.
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A good overview of scientific theory
- De MJ Walters en 09-11-18
De: Jim Holt
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Epistemology: Bolinda Beginner Guides
- De: Robert M. Martin
- Narrado por: Richard Aspel
- Duración: 6 h y 4 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Epistemology is the philosophical study of knowledge. Without knowledge, scientific enquiry is meaningless and we can’t analyse the world around us. But what exactly is knowledge and how do we obtain it? Should we trust our senses? When is belief knowledge? Presuming no prior experience, Robert Martin covers everything in the topic from scepticism and induction to Kant’s transcendentalism. Clear and readable, this audiobook is essential for philosophy students and a much needed introduction for the general reader.
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Going to hear it again
- De R Durero en 08-02-14
De: Robert M. Martin
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James Gleick's story begins at the turn of the 20th century, with the young H. G. Wells writing and rewriting the fantastic tale that became his first book, an international sensation: The Time Machine. A host of forces were converging to transmute the human understanding of time, some philosophical and some technological - the electric telegraph, the steam railroad, the discovery of buried civilizations, and the perfection of clocks.
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Fiction gives us Truth by connecting the dots
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The Personality Brokers
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The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator is the most popular personality test in the world. It is used regularly by Fortune 500 companies, universities, hospitals, churches, and the military. Its language of personality types - extraversion and introversion, sensing and intuiting, thinking and feeling, judging and perceiving - has inspired television shows, Online dating platforms, and Buzzfeed quizzes. Yet despite the test's widespread adoption, experts in the field of psychometric testing, a $2 billion industry, have struggled to validate its results - no less account for its success.
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A biography that reads like a novel.
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The Code
- Silicon Valley and the Remaking of America
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- Narrado por: Nan McNamara
- Duración: 19 h y 11 m
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Long before Margaret O'Mara became one of our most consequential historians of the American-led digital revolution, she worked in the White House of Bill Clinton and Al Gore in the earliest days of the commercial Internet. There, she saw firsthand how deeply intertwined Silicon Valley was with the federal government - and always had been - and how shallow the common understanding of the secrets of the Valley's success actually was.
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Mostly good, but also irrating
- De Rodney en 12-20-20
De: Margaret O'Mara
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Weathering
- The Extraordinary Stress of Ordinary Life in an Unjust Society
- De: Dr. Arline T. Geronimus
- Narrado por: Alma Cuervo
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Dr. Arline T. Geronimus coined the term “weathering” to describe the effects of systemic oppression—including racism and classism—on the body. In Weathering, based on more than 30 years of research, she argues that health and aging have more to do with how society treats us than how well we take care of ourselves. She explains what happens to human bodies as they attempt to withstand and overcome the challenges and insults that society leverages at them, and details how this process ravages their health. And she proposes solutions.
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Chapter 3 was excellent
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The Pleasure of Finding Things Out
- The Best Short Works of Richard P. Feynman
- De: Richard P. Feynman
- Narrado por: Sean Runnette
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The Pleasure of Finding Things Out is a magnificent treasury of the best short works of Richard P. Feynman, from interviews and speeches to lectures and printed articles. A sweeping, wide-ranging collection, it presents an intimate and fascinating view of a life in science - a life like no other. From his ruminations on science in our culture to his Nobel Prize acceptance speech, this book will delight anyone interested in the world of ideas.
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Interesting, but material is covered in better book.
- De Erlend en 04-06-16
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Your Brain Is a Time Machine
- The Neuroscience and Physics of Time
- De: Dean Buonomano
- Narrado por: Aaron Abano
- Duración: 8 h y 51 m
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In Your Brain Is a Time Machine, brain researcher and best-selling author Dean Buonomano draws on evolutionary biology, physics, and philosophy to present his influential theory of how we tell and perceive time. The human brain, he argues, is a complex system that not only tells time but creates it; it constructs our sense of chronological flow and enables "mental time travel" - simulations of future and past events.
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Great book on an underrated subject
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De: Dean Buonomano
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Time Travel
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- De: James Gleick
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James Gleick's story begins at the turn of the 20th century, with the young H. G. Wells writing and rewriting the fantastic tale that became his first book, an international sensation: The Time Machine. A host of forces were converging to transmute the human understanding of time, some philosophical and some technological - the electric telegraph, the steam railroad, the discovery of buried civilizations, and the perfection of clocks.
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Fiction gives us Truth by connecting the dots
- De Gary en 04-21-17
De: James Gleick
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The Personality Brokers
- The Strange History of Myers-Briggs and the Birth of Personality Testing
- De: Merve Emre
- Narrado por: Ellen Archer
- Duración: 11 h y 30 m
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The Myers-Briggs Type Indicator is the most popular personality test in the world. It is used regularly by Fortune 500 companies, universities, hospitals, churches, and the military. Its language of personality types - extraversion and introversion, sensing and intuiting, thinking and feeling, judging and perceiving - has inspired television shows, Online dating platforms, and Buzzfeed quizzes. Yet despite the test's widespread adoption, experts in the field of psychometric testing, a $2 billion industry, have struggled to validate its results - no less account for its success.
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A biography that reads like a novel.
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The Code
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- Narrado por: Nan McNamara
- Duración: 19 h y 11 m
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Long before Margaret O'Mara became one of our most consequential historians of the American-led digital revolution, she worked in the White House of Bill Clinton and Al Gore in the earliest days of the commercial Internet. There, she saw firsthand how deeply intertwined Silicon Valley was with the federal government - and always had been - and how shallow the common understanding of the secrets of the Valley's success actually was.
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Mostly good, but also irrating
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De: Margaret O'Mara
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Weathering
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- De: Dr. Arline T. Geronimus
- Narrado por: Alma Cuervo
- Duración: 13 h y 3 m
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Dr. Arline T. Geronimus coined the term “weathering” to describe the effects of systemic oppression—including racism and classism—on the body. In Weathering, based on more than 30 years of research, she argues that health and aging have more to do with how society treats us than how well we take care of ourselves. She explains what happens to human bodies as they attempt to withstand and overcome the challenges and insults that society leverages at them, and details how this process ravages their health. And she proposes solutions.
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Chapter 3 was excellent
- De Karen Koch en 04-12-23
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The Pleasure of Finding Things Out
- The Best Short Works of Richard P. Feynman
- De: Richard P. Feynman
- Narrado por: Sean Runnette
- Duración: 8 h y 23 m
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The Pleasure of Finding Things Out is a magnificent treasury of the best short works of Richard P. Feynman, from interviews and speeches to lectures and printed articles. A sweeping, wide-ranging collection, it presents an intimate and fascinating view of a life in science - a life like no other. From his ruminations on science in our culture to his Nobel Prize acceptance speech, this book will delight anyone interested in the world of ideas.
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Interesting, but material is covered in better book.
- De Erlend en 04-06-16
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Your Brain Is a Time Machine
- The Neuroscience and Physics of Time
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In Your Brain Is a Time Machine, brain researcher and best-selling author Dean Buonomano draws on evolutionary biology, physics, and philosophy to present his influential theory of how we tell and perceive time. The human brain, he argues, is a complex system that not only tells time but creates it; it constructs our sense of chronological flow and enables "mental time travel" - simulations of future and past events.
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Great book on an underrated subject
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De: Dean Buonomano
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Desk 88
- Eight Progressive Senators Who Changed America
- De: Sherrod Brown
- Narrado por: Leon Nixon, Sherrod Brown
- Duración: 12 h y 46 m
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Since his election to the US Senate in 2006, Ohio’s Sherrod Brown has sat on the Senate floor at a mahogany desk with a proud history. In Desk 88, he tells the story of eight of the Senators who were there before him. Despite their flaws and frequent setbacks, each made a decisive contribution to the creation of a more just America. Together, these eight portraits in political courage tell a story about the triumphs and failures of the Progressive idea over the past century.
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Loaded with interesing information
- De Jean en 12-17-19
De: Sherrod Brown
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Code Warriors
- NSA's Codebreakers and the Secret Intelligence War Against the Soviet Union
- De: Stephen Budiansky
- Narrado por: Mark Deakins
- Duración: 14 h y 35 m
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The National Security Agency was born out of the legendary codebreaking programs of World War II that cracked the famed Enigma machine and other German and Japanese codes, thereby turning the tide of Allied victory. In the postwar years, as the United States developed a new enemy in the Soviet Union, our intelligence community found itself targeting not soldiers on the battlefield, but suspected spies, foreign leaders, and even American citizens.
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Did Vladimir Putin Steal the American Election?
- De Cynthia en 12-01-16
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The Technological Society
- De: Jacques Ellul
- Narrado por: Arthur Morey
- Duración: 21 h y 20 m
- Versión completa
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Narración:
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Historia
Jacques Ellul’s The Technological Society has become a classic in its field, laying the groundwork for all other studies of technology and society that have followed. Ellul offers a penetrating analysis of our technological civilization, showing how technology - which began innocuously enough as a servant of humankind - threatens to overthrow humanity itself in its ongoing creation of an environment that meets its own ends. No conversation about the dangers of technology and its unavoidable effects on society can begin without a careful listening of this book.
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A singular work.
- De Daniel S Hoffman en 06-20-21
De: Jacques Ellul
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American Revolutions
- A Continental History, 1750-1804
- De: Alan Taylor
- Narrado por: Mark Bramhall
- Duración: 18 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
The American Revolution is often portrayed as a high-minded, orderly event whose capstone, the Constitution, provided the ideal framework for a democratic, prosperous nation. Alan Taylor, two-time winner of the Pulitzer Prize, gives us a different creation story in this magisterial history of the nation's founding. Rising out of the continental rivalries of European empires and their native allies, Taylor's Revolution builds like a ground fire overspreading Britain's mainland colonies, fueled by local conditions, destructive, hard to quell.
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Best book on the American Revolution that I have read
- De Peter Stephens en 11-16-16
De: Alan Taylor
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The Inkblots
- Hermann Rorschach, His Iconic Test, and the Power of Seeing
- De: Damion Searls
- Narrado por: Paul Boehmer
- Duración: 15 h y 42 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
In 1917, working alone in a remote Swiss asylum, psychiatrist Hermann Rorschach devised an experiment to probe the human mind: a set of 10 carefully designed inkblots. For years he had grappled with the theories of Freud and Jung while also absorbing the aesthetic movements of the day, from futurism to dadaism. A visual artist himself, Rorschach had come to believe that who we are is less a matter of what we say, as Freud thought, than what we see.
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Memorable
- De Jason Comely en 03-04-17
De: Damion Searls
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Journey of the Mind
- How Thinking Emerged from Chaos
- De: Ogi Ogas, Sai Gaddam
- Narrado por: Cary Hite
- Duración: 10 h y 15 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
Why do minds exist? How did mud and stone develop into beings that can experience longing, regret, love, and compassion - beings that are aware of their own experience? Until recently, science offered few answers to these existential questions. Journey of the Mind is the first book to offer a unified account of the mind that explains how consciousness, language, the Self, and civilization emerged incrementally out of chaos.
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Consciousness: objectively physical yet subjective
- De Jeffrey W. Rudisel en 04-16-22
De: Ogi Ogas, y otros
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Surfacing
- De: Kathleen Jamie
- Narrado por: Cathleen McCarron
- Duración: 6 h y 42 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Historia
In this remarkable blend of memoir, cultural history, and travelogue, poet and author Kathleen Jamie touches points on a timeline spanning millennia, and considers what surfaces and what reconnects us to our past. From the thawing tundra linking a Yup'ik village in Alaska to its hunter-gatherer past to the shifting sand dunes revealing the impressively preserved homes of neolithic farmers in Scotland, Jamie explores how the changing natural world can alter our sense of time.
De: Kathleen Jamie
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The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life
- De: Erving Goffman
- Narrado por: Graham Halstead
- Duración: 9 h y 30 m
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
A notable contribution to our understanding of ourselves. This audiobook explores the realm of human behavior in social situations and the way that we appear to others. Dr. Goffman uses the metaphor of theatrical performance as a framework. Each person in everyday social intercourse presents himself and his activity to others, attempts to guide and control the impressions they form of him, and employs certain techniques in order to sustain his performance, just as an actor presents a character to an audience.
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Finally on Audible!!
- De Anonymous en 02-14-20
De: Erving Goffman
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Travelers to Unimaginable Lands
- Stories of Dementia, the Caregiver, and the Human Brain
- De: Dasha Kiper, Norman Doidge - foreword
- Narrado por: Holly Linneman
- Duración: 5 h y 53 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
After getting a master’s degree in clinical psychology, Dasha Kiper became the live-in caregiver for a Holocaust survivor with Alzheimer’s disease. For a year, she endured the emotional strain of looking after a person whose condition disrupts the rules of time, order, and continuity. Inspired by her own experience and her work counseling caregivers in the subsequent decade, Kiper offers an entirely new way to understand the symbiotic relationship between patients and those tending to them.
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Instant Classic
- De Duane en 06-05-23
De: Dasha Kiper, y otros
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The Medicine Book
- De: DK
- Narrado por: Jonathan Oliver
- Duración: 16 h y 59 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
This audiobook explores big questions like these, explaining the breakthroughs and discoveries that have shaped our modern-day understanding of medicine and helped us protect and promote our health. Written in plain English, The Medicine Book cuts through the jargon and is packed with pithy explanations of the most important milestones in medical history to untangle knotty concepts.
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super diverse topics
- De Matthew M. en 04-04-24
De: DK
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The Hidden Life of Trees
- What They Feel, How They Communicate - Discoveries from a Secret World
- De: Peter Wohlleben
- Narrado por: Mike Grady
- Duración: 7 h y 33 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
How do trees live? Do they feel pain or have awareness of their surroundings? Research is now suggesting trees are capable of much more than we have ever known. In The Hidden Life of Trees, forester Peter Wohlleben puts groundbreaking scientific discoveries into a language everyone can relate to.
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Tree Hugger
- De Darwin8u en 04-18-19
De: Peter Wohlleben
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In the Waves
- My Quest to Solve the Mystery of a Civil War Submarine
- De: Rachel Lance
- Narrado por: Rebecca Lowman
- Duración: 9 h y 59 m
- Versión completa
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General
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Narración:
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Historia
On the night of February 17, 1864, the tiny Confederate submarine HL Hunley made its way toward the USS Housatonic just outside Charleston harbor. Within a matter of hours, the Union ship’s stern was blown open in a spray of wood planks. The explosion sank the ship, killing many of its crew. And the submarine, the first ever to be successful in combat, disappeared without a trace. For 131 years the eight-man crew of the HL Hunley lay in their watery graves, undiscovered.
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A wonderful scientific dive!
- De Stephen en 05-01-20
De: Rachel Lance
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Bernoulli's Fallacy
Calificaciones medias de los clientesReseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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Total
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Ejecución
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- Dylan Rosario
- 11-12-23
Statistical method based upon Racist Justification
Immersed in the labyrinthine realms of statistical theory, I found myself captivated by the nuanced debate between the frequentist and Bayesian schools of thought. In the book I had the pleasure of reviewing, Clayton masterfully illuminates the stark incompatibilities that lie at the heart of these two methodologies. His adept critique of frequentist assertions, which he then artfully deconstructs, proved both enlightening and accessible, demanding no more than a foundational understanding of undergraduate statistics.
My intellectual voyage through this domain was profoundly enriched by Clayton's work, which bestowed upon me the essential historical context of the Bayesian versus frequentist discourse, underscoring Jaynes' work as a pivotal intellectual achievement.
Entitled "Bernoulli’s Fallacy," the book adeptly traces the trajectory of statistical thought, journeying from Bernoulli's pioneering efforts to the unsettling application of statistics in the pursuit of eugenic agendas. It also confronts the contemporary "crisis of replication" afflicting various research fields, a crisis stemming from an excessive dependence on statistical significance and p-values in hypothesis evaluation.
In its initial chapters, the book articulates its core concepts, which, though not revolutionary, remain critical and frequently misunderstood in modern discussions. These concepts pivot around the idea of probability as a subjective belief informed by available knowledge, the imperative of articulating assumptions in probability statements, and the transformation of prior probabilities into posterior probabilities via observation. The book underscores that data alone cannot yield inferences; rather, it reshapes our existing narratives based on their plausibility.
A pivotal insight from the book is the acknowledgment that improbable events do indeed transpire. This realization challenges the practice of deducing the veracity or fallacy of hypotheses solely based on the likelihood of observations. Instead, it advocates for adjusting our subjective belief in the plausibility of a hypothesis in relation to other competing hypotheses.
Moreover, the book elucidates a critical distinction: Bayesian and frequentist methods are not merely two different perspectives but rather, the Bayesian approach forms the bedrock of probability understanding, with the frequentist method emerging as a historical aberration, a specific instance within the expansive Bayesian paradigm.
It was particularly enlightening to learn how a small cadre of British mathematics professors, namely Galton, Fisher, and Pearson, engineered an entire statistical school of thought. This school, founded on flawed and convenient principles, served to justify and rationalize their eugenic and racist viewpoints, reinforcing the Victorian-era racial supremacy of the British upper class through a veneer of mathematical rationalization. This review offered a fascinating glimpse into a quasi-scientific method employed by researchers who, standing on shaky ground, resort to limited group sampling and mathematical subterfuge to lend false precision and authority to their biased models and probability findings.
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- Alex Sidorenko
- 08-06-22
Amazing book
Great read and must have for everyone in risk management community. Yet another wake up call to the flaws in many traditional risk analysis techniques.
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- Benjamin Davidson
- 12-20-23
Changes World Views
Occasionally one finds a book or audio presentation that challenges the roots, the rock, on which all you thought you and beliefs are based is dissolves and is taken away. For me, “Bernoulli’s Fallacy: Statistical Illogical and the Crisis of Modern Science” is that kind of book.
As a child, I always wanted to be a scientist when I grew up, even though I never worked as a scientist, science was my passion, the ability to use numerical analysis to aid in understanding the world, business, finance, production control, and scientific research and publications was the rock I based my view of reality on. From the earliest learning to graduate school in philosophy, it was what could be counted on and trusted. Logic, Mathematics, and Philosophy could be used to solve any problem. Then I read both text and digital versions and listened to the audio rendition once, twice, and now many more times.
Slowly, with the precision of a surgeons knife, Aubrey Clayton has cut the roots of my knowing and smashed the rock on which they were anchored.
Coming to see the logical fallacy upon which much of modern statics (the orthodox Frequentist methods) has deceived me in a since that many of my key beliefs and understanding are built on / based on errors, logical errors, that, under some conditions approximate what is correct or valid. However, when applied in general as the prescribed method of analysis, criterion for publication, and the preferred method of analysis, above all others, one finds that these methods lead to many issues and often bogus or even silly conclusions.
Even worse, the methods are all that has been taught at all levels of education in the statistics departments. The result of starting with logical errors, all that follows results in asking the wrong questions, designing the wrong experiments, analyzing incorrectly and getting result for the orthodox methods that lend themselves to easy manipulation, uncertainty, and the ability to cleverly wave the hands of complex methods and conclude the most absurd of all possible outcomes that may result in millions of deaths.
Hopefully more will read and study the text and ideas and arrive at conclusions that aid them in doing better science, living more wholesome life’s, and having a deeper appreciation for clear and accurate thinking.
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- Eugene Gallagher
- 03-08-24
A strong case for Bayes
Good intro to Bayesian statistics but the descriptions of equations and graphs were distracting. I bought the book for those.
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- Anthony
- 04-24-22
No punches pulled!
There has been some effort to make frequentist and Bayesian approaches seem compatible in the last few years. But they really aren’t compatible. Clayton gives a full explanation of why this is the case. The reader should know introductory statistics at the undergraduate level well to appreciate the arguments, but more advanced understanding beyond that is not required. Clayton is very generous in recapping basic claims in frequentist statistics before turning them upside down and demonstrating their absurdity.
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- Kindle Customer
- 04-05-22
Excellent and persuasive
I read the book along with listening to the Audible narration. I'm a big Edwin Jaynes fan, so this was preaching to the choir. In particular, a Presbyterian sermon from Probability Theory, driving home its themes thoroughly.
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- Nate Carter
- 01-09-24
The best introduction to Bayesian stats I’ve read
The walk through the history of stats was very enlightening, and the discussion around frequency and probability explain why I’ve always had a hard time with stats in the past.
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- Anonymous User
- 01-04-23
A well-marked path that cuts to the chase
If read/listened to attentively, it guides directly to the present [and past] day A.I. fallacy. Picture this:
Noah = Mathematics
on his barge
an Elephant = Statistics
and
a Penguine = Computer Science
Noah is pointing to their offspring, a creature with the body of a penguine [C.S.] and, attached to it, an elephant head [Statistics].
Noah [Mathematics]: "What the hell is this?!..."
E.g. Lifting oneself by one's own hair is unlikely to come down to horsepower.
[.... as Artur Avila pointed out (2014) for which he won the Fields Medal - hands down, to everyones' maximum satisfaction - puting in The Last Word on entire fields of Mathematics!]
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- M
- 01-06-23
Explanation of Bayesian (Jaynesian) statistics
The "Fallacy" in the title is this: The validity of a hypothesis can be judged based solely on how likely or unlikely the observed data would be if the hypothesis were true. The author, Aubrey Clayton, calls it Bernoulli's Fallacy because Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi is devoted to determining how likely or unlikely an observation is given that a hypothesis is true. What we need is not the probability of the data given the hypothesis, but the probability of the hypothesis given the data.
In the preface, Clayton describes the Bayesian vs Frequentist schism as a "dispute about the nature and origins of probability: whether it comes from 'outside us' in the form of uncontrollable random noise in observations, or 'inside us' as our uncertainty given limited information on the state of the world." Like Clayton, I am a fan of E.T. Jaynes's "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science", which presents the argument (proof really) that probability is a number representing a proposition's plausibility based on background information -- a number which can be updated based on new observations. So, I am a member of the choir to which Clayton is preaching.
And he is preaching. This is one long argument against classical frequentist statistics. But Clayton never implies that frequentists dispute the validity of the formula universally known as "Bayes's Rule". (By the way, Bayes never wrote the actual formula.) Disputing the validity of Bayes's Rule would be like disputing the quadratic formula or the Pythagorean Theorem. Some of the objections to Bayes/Price/Laplace are focused on "equal priors", a term which Clayton never uses. Instead, he says "uniform priors", "principle of insufficient reason", or (from J.M.Keynes) "principle of indifference".
I appreciate that it is available in audio. The narrator is fine, but I find that I need the print version too.
As someone already interested in probability theory and statistics, I highly recommend this book. I can't say how less interested individuals would like it.
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- Anonymous User
- 01-25-22
Rigorously Bayesian
Ignore the review from the snowflake triggered by the word Berkeley. This book is good. It sets up a sound logical argument against frequentist statistics. It give interesting historical details and explains why Bayesian methods are more robust.
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