Le Cygne Noir
La puissance de l'imprévisible
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Le Cygne Noir
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Narrado por:
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Tristan Harvey
Acerca de esta escucha
Quel est le point commun entre l'invention de la roue, Pompéi, le krach boursier de 1987, Harry Potter et Internet ? Pourquoi ne devrait-on jamais lire un journal ni courir pour attraper un train ? Que peuvent nous apprendre les amants de Catherine de Russie sur les probabilités ? Pourquoi les prévisionnistes sont-ils pratiquement tous des arnaqueurs ? Ce livre audio révèle tout des Cygnes Noirs, ces événements aléatoires, hautement improbables, qui jalonnent notre vie : ils ont un impact énorme, sont presque impossibles à prévoir, et pourtant, a posteriori, nous essayons toujours de leur trouver une explication rationnelle.
Dans cet ouvrage éclairant, plein d'esprit et d'impertinence, Taleb nous exhorte à ne pas tenir compte des propos de certains "experts", et nous montre comment cesser de tout prévoir ou comment tirer parti de l'incertitude. Un livre audio plus que jamais d'actualité, admirablement lu par Tristan Harvey.
Table des matières :
Prologue
PREMIÈRE PARTIE : L'antibibliothèque d'Umberto Eco, ou comment nous recherchons la validation de notre savoir
- Chapitre 1 : L'apprentissage d'un sceptique empirique ;
- Chapitre 2 : Le Cygne Noir de Yevgenia ;
- Chapitre 3 : Le spéculateur et la prostituée ;
- Chapitre 4 : Mille et un jours, ou comment ne pas être une dupe ;
- Chapitre 5 : Confirmation... mon œil ! ;
- Chapitre 6 : L'erreur de narration ;
- Chapitre 7 : Vivre dans l'antichambre de l'espoir ;
- Chapitre 8 : La chance infaillible de Giacomo Casanova : le problème de Diagoras ;
- Chapitre 9 : L'erreur ludique ou l'incertitude du polard.
DEUXIÈME PARTIE : Les prévisions sont tout bonnement impossibles
- Chapitre 10 : Le scandale des prévisions ;
- Chapitre 11 : Comment chercher de la fiente d'oiseau ;
- Chapitre 12 : L'épistémocratie, un rêve ;
- Chapitre 13 : Le peintre Apelle, ou que faire si l'on ne peut pas prévoir.
TROISIÈME PARTIE : Ces cygnes gris de l'extrêmistan
- Chapitre 14 : Du médiocristan à l'extrêmistan, et vice versa ;
- Chapitre 15 : La courbe en cloche, cette grande escroquerie intellectuelle ;
- Chapitre 16 : L'esthétique du hasard ;
- Chapitre 17 : Les fous de Locke, ou des courbes en cloche au mauvais endroit ;
- Chapitre 18 : L'incertitude du charlatan.
QUATRIÈME PARTIE : Fin
- Chapitre 19 : Moitié-moitié, ou comment rendre la pareille au Cygne Noir ;
- Épilogue - les Cygnes Blancs de Yevgenia ;
- Remerciements.
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