First-time homebuyers in the US face a prolonged period of high mortgage rates and soaring home prices, with Bank of America economists predicting the housing market will remain "stuck" until at least 2026. Despite potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, mortgage rates may not significantly drop, and home prices are expected to continue rising due to an ongoing housing shortage. The "lock-in effect," where homeowners with low pandemic-era mortgage rates are reluctant to sell, further limits supply. This scarcity has driven the median price of a previously owned home to a record $419,300, creating a historically unaffordable market. The stagnation is evident in the record low pending home sales, as existing homeowners hesitate to move and new buyers struggle to afford homes. While experts like Dave Liniger of RE/MAX advise patience, the divide between current homeowners and prospective buyers grows, with the latter missing out on wealth creation. The market's future depends on economic conditions, with potential scenarios ranging from further price hikes if the economy stabilizes without a recession to possible price drops if a recession occurs, temporarily easing affordability.

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