Episodios

  • Pre-Trading Thoughts
    Jul 30 2024

    The IMF Executive Board has completed the third review of our USD 8 bn loan program, enabling the government to immediately draw the USD 820 mn third tranche.

    Foreign investments in Egypt’s debt currently stands at USD 32-33 bn after the exit of USD 4 bn in June.

    Egypt is not expected to tap the international debt market this year, adding that the state is focusing on the local market to meet its financing needs for the time being

    The cabinet gave the green light the ins and outs of the subsidized loan program for hospitality companies worth up to EGP 50 bn. The new program will offer financing at a reducing interest rate of 12%. Individual companies can access up to EGP 1 bn, while those with affiliates may receive up to EGP 2 bn.

    Several pharma companies have asked the Egyptian Drug Authority to approve another 1% increase in medicine prices to compensate for rising fuel prices.

    The government is planning to devote 37% of its investments to industrial development and infrastructure this fiscal year.

    Income tax revenues grew by 26% YoY during the last fiscal year to reach EGP645 billion, compared to EGP516.3 billion in the previous fiscal year.

    The Mineral Resources Authority is preparing to launch a new global bidding for exploration of mineral ores before the end of this year.

    CIRA reported 3Q23/24 attributable net profit of EGP122 million (-6% YoY, -35% QoQ). This decline is mainly arising from lower construction revenues in addition to high interest expenses and investment loss from sister companies. This brings 9M23/24 bottom-line to 410 million (+16.9% YoY). CIRA is currently trading at 2024f P/E of 79.3x.

    EFIC recorded 2Q24 unaudited standalone net profit of EGP250.5 million, a 118% YoY increase (+253% QoQ). During 1H24, net profit increased by 59% YoY to EGP321.5 million.

    Egypt's chemical industries and fertilizers exports reached USD4.2 billion during 1H24.

    EGAL aims to implement a project to establish an alumina refinery with a capacity of 2 million tons annually, to provide the company’s needs for alumina ore. Also, EGAL plans to build a new aluminum production factory, with the aim of replacing 100% of imports and filling the deficit in the local market.

    Egypt’s production of rebar rose by 37% during the first half of this year to reach 4.158 million tons. The growth in production came supported by the availability of the dollar and companies’ tendency to export.

    ETEL is studying borrowing EGP18 billion from a syndicate of local banks, out of which EGP12 billion directed towards paying off the company’s short-term credit facilities and the remaining to be directed towards funding operations and network development.

    MASR (FV: EGP5.24, OW) launched Esse Residence, its latest project situated on over 0.4 million sqm in Sarai in East Cairo. The project is expected to require an investment cost of EGP10.0 billion and generate revenue of EGP18.2 billion.

    MNT-Halan wants to expand globally through acquire entities across several markets, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Also it aims to raise EGP 24 bn from securitized bonds issuances this year.

    ACTF’s net income rose 79.3% y/y to EGP109.4 mn in 1H24, while its revenues came in at EGP261.2 mn during the half, jumping 104.5% y/y.

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    4 m
  • Technical Analysis
    Jul 30 2024

    Market Overview
    BTFH
    PHDC
    ASCM
    CLHO


    prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

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    2 m
  • Pre-Trading Thoughts
    Jul 29 2024

    The IMF Executive Board is scheduled to discuss the third review of Egypt's USD8 billion loan program today. The greenlight from the board will see the Fund disburse a fresh USD820 million tranche into the state coffers and will allow Egypt to apply for an additional USD1.2 billion in climate financing.

    The G20 countries could greenlight a decision to provide debt relief to the countries that are most indebted to the IMF, which could mean upwards of USD370 million in debt relief to Egypt.

    The Oil Ministry and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) inked an agreement with Shell and Malaysia’s Petronas to invest USD222 million in the deepwater West Delta to boost its gas production.

    The Oil Ministry and EGPC also signed an agreement with local energy giant Cheiron Energy to invest USD120 million in the Geisum and Tawila West development fields in the Gulf of Suez.

    The government is reportedly in talks with Jordan to jointly purchase a new floating regasification unit.

    Last June, foreign investments in government debt worth USD4 billion exited the Egyptian market.

    SKPC released 2Q24 unaudited financial indicators. Net profit declined 3% YoY (+19% QoQ) to EGP667 million in 2Q24. During 1H24, net profit increased by a mere 1% to EGP1.23 billion. SKPC is currently trading at 2024e PE of 5.1x and EV/EBITDA of 4.1x.

    AMOC released 4Q23/24 unaudited financial indicators. Net profit before minority interest increased by 62% YoY (+12% QoQ) to EGP441 million in 4Q23/24. During FY23/24, net profit before minority interest grew by 28% YoY to EGP1.75 billion in FY23/24. AMOC is currently trading at FY23/24e PE of 6.6x and EV/EBITDA of 5.9x.

    Singapore-based chemical company Indorama — in partnership with Phosphate Misr — is building a USD400-500 million phosphate fertilizer plant in Ain Sokhna, according to an Oil Ministry statement.

    OCDI reported solid 1H24 sales of EGP10.9 billion, up 33.8% y/y. Net profit in 2Q24 reached EGP235.4 million, up 59.3% y/y and down 39.7% q/q, bringing 1H24 net profit up 86.7% y/y to EGP625.5 million.

    According to local media, EAST is investing an initial USD20 million to raise the efficiency of its production lines. The company may add three new production lines in the long term.

    The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) has updated its rules governing the listing and delisting of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) on the EGX.

    The FRA issued new rules to limit insider trading that prohibit company insiders, including board members, executives, and major shareholders owning 20% or more of a company’s capital, from trading during the five working days before and one day after the disclosure of any significant information.

    Weekly Commodities Update

    | | Last Price | WoW Change, %
    | Brent, USD/bbl | 81.1 | -1.8%
    | Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 253 | -5.9%
    | Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 365 | 8.0%
    | Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,060 | 0.0%
    | Polypropylene, USD/ton | 1,000 | 0.0%
    | Iron Ore 65%, USD/ton | 124 | -1.0%
    | Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 392 | 0.0%
    | LME Copper Cash Price, USD/ton | 8,996 | -2.0%
    | LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,234 | -2.6%
    | Egyptia Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,144 | 0.6%
    | Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 135 | -0.2%
    | SMP, USD/MT | 2,566 | 0.0%
    | Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference

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    4 m
  • Technical Analysis
    Jul 29 2024

    Market Overview
    COMI
    BTFH
    EGCH

    Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

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    2 m
  • Pre-Trading Thoughts
    Jul 28 2024

    The government raised fuel prices 10-15% as of last Thursday.

    The price of mazut for most industries increased to EGP8.5k per ton, up 13.3% from EGP7.5k previously. The government has kept mazut prices stable for electricity generation and food industries.

    Foreign investments in Egypt’s t-bills stood at USD35.2 billion (EGP1.70 trillion) by the end of April, up from USD32.0 billion (EGP1.54 trillion) in March.

    The government is launching an initiative to support the tourism sector with EGP50 billion. Funding should not exceed EGP1 billion for one customer with a declining 12% subsidized interest rate.

    The IMF Executive Board is scheduled to discuss the third review of Egypt’s USD8 billion loan program tomorrow.

    The European Investment Bank will provide EUR200 million in the coming days for the Abu Qir Metro in Alexandria as the first tranche of the total soft financing allocated to the project from four international institutions.

    The government intends to establish three strategic factories in the automotive sector with investments of USD1.4 billion.

    Electricity distribution companies will now be able to install coded meters in buildings illegally drawing electricity until the building either legalizes its status or demolished.

    EAST approved the sale of one of its factories, which is currently rented, to United Tobacco Company for EGP1.6 billion.

    Eni will leverage Egypt’s position as a regional energy hub to export gas produced in Eni’s fields throughout the whole Eastern Mediterranean through Egyptian facilities.

    Four companies have plans to pump millions of USD into oil production through well-drilling and well-rehabilitation, according to an Oil Ministry statement.

    Egyptian Marketing Company for Phosphate targets increasing it production capacity to 5.5 million tons during 2024. The company has produced 2.6 million tons until the end of June 2024.

    MNT-Halan has fully acquired Turkish commercial finance company Tam Finans from Actera Group.

    COMI, in collaboration with the German development agency GIZ and the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, has rolled out a new SME financing product tailored to boost sustainable development.

    Beltone Mortgage, BTFH’s arm, has already snapped up a sizable market share, which it plans to grow to no less than 25% by the end of the year. It currently ranks second in the mortgage finance market in terms of bookings and market share, which stood at EGP2.6 billion and 22.5% at the end of 1H24, respectively.

    Tamweel Mortgage Company intends to complete the first issuance of a new multi-issue securitization bond program with a total size of about EGP5 billion.

    Banque Misr signed a credit facility agreement of EGP500 million with Tanmeyah micro-finance, affiliated with HRHO.

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    3 m
  • Technical Analysis
    Jul 28 2024

    Market Overview
    CIEB
    MENA
    ACGC
    CLHO


    Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe


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    2 m
  • Pre-Trading Thoughts
    Jul 24 2024

    The Finance Ministry is updating its tax policy framework so that it is more attractive to potential investors. The policy will be ready in 1Q 2025. The government expects its tax revenues to jump by around EGP 100 bn once the new policy is put in place, as a result of incorporating the informal economy and encouraging further investment.

    An international consortium has submitted a proposal to manage the Cairo International Financial Center (CIFC), an area of the new capital that will house financial institutions.

    The Ministry of Public Business Sector is studying an offer from an alliance of Egyptian and Emirati investors, to acquire a 25% to 30% stake in one of the companies affiliated with the Holding Company for Cotton, Spinning, Weaving and Clothing.

    The UAE is also looking to set up new investment projects in Egypt via various financing methods, UAE’s ambassador to Egypt said.

    Ain Sokhna Port received the seventh contracted shipment of LNG with a capacity of about 155 thousand tons, in preparation for the gasification process.

    Investment and Foreign Trade Minister has proposed a number of measures to help improve Egypt’s investment climate, facilitate procedures, and boost priority sectors.

    The CBE accepted bids from 32 banks for EGP 947.1 bn in fixed-rate deposits at a rate of 27.75% during its weekly fixed-rate auction.

    The CBE’s net foreign assets recorded a surplus of EGP494.5 billion as of June-end, compared to EGP458.63 billion last May.

    The retail tranche of ACTF’s IPO was 54.8x covered by the end of their subscription period yesterday. The subscription period for institutional investors wrapped up last Thursday and saw the offering 20.2x oversubscribed.

    According to a report issued by Fitch Credit Rating Agency, many Gulf banks are looking for several acquisitions in the Egyptian banking sector, amid interest in other markets such as Turkey and India, supported by better growth opportunities compared to Gulf markets.

    The Ministry of Electricity and Renewable Energy aims to add 750 megawatts of electrical capacity generated by two wind and solar energy projects by next October, with total investments amounting to USD700 million. The first project will be opened during August and is being connected to the national electricity grid. It is the first phase of a wind energy project with a capacity of 250 megawatts, implemented by a consortium of ORAS, Toyota, and Engie in the Gulf of Suez region near Ras Gharib. The second project is the solar energy station, which is being implemented by the Emirati company Al Nowais, with a capacity of 500 megawatts in the Kom Ombo area in Aswan Governorate, and it is scheduled to operate in October.
    The proportion of government transactions that are processed digitally is slated to rise from some 33% for the 2023-24 fiscal year to 37% by 2030.

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    4 m
  • Technical Analysis
    Jul 24 2024

    Market overview
    ARCC
    CCAP
    BTFH
    HELI
    MFPC
    SKPC
    KABO


    Prepared By: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

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    3 m