Episodios

  • Fed dropped the rates but also did something from old playbook, printing 40 billion a month in QE
    Dec 18 2025

    If the **Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 0.25% and simultaneously restarts a form of quantitative easing (QE) by buying about $40 billion per month of securities, the overall monetary policy stance becomes very accommodative. Here’s what that generally means for interest rates and the broader economy:

    📉 1. Short-Term Interest Rates

    The Fed’s benchmark rate (federal funds rate) directly sets the cost of overnight borrowing between banks. A 0.25% cut lowers that rate, which usually leads to lower short-term borrowing costs throughout the economy — for example on credit cards, variable-rate loans, and some business financing.
    Yahoo Finance
    +1

    In most markets, short-term yields fall first, because they track the federal funds rate most closely.
    Reuters

    📉 2. Long-Term Interest Rates

    Purchasing bonds (QE) puts downward pressure on long-term yields. When the Fed buys large amounts of Treasury bills or bonds, it increases demand for them, pushing prices up and yields down.
    SIEPR

    This tends to lower mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and yields on long-dated government bonds, though not always as quickly or as much as short-term rates.
    Bankrate

    🤝 3. Combined Effect

    Rate cuts + QE = dual easing. Rate cuts reduce the cost of short-term credit, and QE often helps bring down long-term rates too. Together, they usually flatten the yield curve (short and long rates both lower).
    SIEPR

    Lower rates overall tend to stimulate spending by households and investment by businesses because borrowing is cheaper.
    Cleveland Federal Reserve

    💡 4. Market and Economic Responses

    Financial markets often interpret such easing as a cue that the Fed wants to support the economy. Stocks may rise and bond yields may fall.
    Reuters

    However, if inflation is already above target (as it has been), this accommodative stance could keep long-term inflation elevated or slow the pace of inflation decline. That’s one reason why Fed policymakers are sometimes divided over aggressive easing.
    Reuters

    🔁 5. What This Doesn’t Mean

    The Fed buying $40 billion in bills right now may technically be labeled something like “reserve management purchases,” and some market analysts argue this may not be classic QE. But whether it’s traditional QE or not, the effect on liquidity and longer-term rates is similar: more Fed demand for government paper equals lower yields.
    Reuters

    In simple terms:

    ✅ Short-term rates will be lower because of the rate cut.
    ✅ Long-term rates are likely to decline too if the asset purchases are sustained.
    ➡️ Overall borrowing costs fall across the economy, boosting credit, investment, and spending.
    ⚠️ But this also risks higher inflation if demand strengthens too much while supply remains constrained.

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    6 m
  • closed a second mortgage in 3 hours, that is for real
    Dec 11 2025

    That is wild — and honestly a sign of where mortgage tech is heading fast.

    A three-hour closing versus three days used to be unheard of. What likely made it possible:

    🚀 Why it happened so fast

    1. Automated income/asset verification
    Lenders now pull bank statements, payroll data, and tax transcripts digitally instead of waiting for uploads.

    2. Instant credit + DU/LPA underwriting
    If everything lines up, AUS can issue an immediate approve/eligible.

    3. e-sign + remote online notarization (RON)
    Cutting out scheduling delays saves days.

    4. Title automation
    Many second mortgages use “property data reports” or streamline title searches that don’t need a full title commitment.

    🧩 Why second mortgages close faster than first mortgages

    They don’t require an appraisal if AVM hits.

    Fewer compliance disclosures.

    Title and insurance requirements are lighter.

    No escrow setup.

    📈 Bigger picture

    The mortgage industry is absolutely racing toward:

    close-in-a-day loans

    fully digital underwriting

    AI-assisted document interpretation

    more instant approvals for clean files

    We’re going to see more of what you just experienced—especially for HELOCs and seconds.

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    4 m
  • Fed is cutting rates does that help us on the mortgage side and lets close your loan this month for homestead
    Dec 4 2025

    ✅ Why mortgage rates can rise even when the Fed cuts rates

    Mortgage rates don’t move directly with the Fed Funds Rate. Instead, they are primarily driven by the 10-year Treasury yield and investor expectations about inflation, recession risk, and future Fed policy.

    Here are the main reasons this disconnect happens:

    1. Markets expected the rate cut already

    If investors already priced in the Fed’s cut weeks or months beforehand, then the cut itself is old news.
    When the announcement hits, mortgage rates may not fall—and often rise if the Fed hints at fewer future cuts.

    2. Fed cuts can signal economic trouble

    Sometimes the Fed cuts because the economy is weakening. That can cause:

    Investors to worry about higher future inflation, or

    A “risk-off” move where money leaves bonds

    Both of these drive the 10-year yield UP, which pushes mortgage rates UP even though the Fed cut.

    3. Bond investors wanted a bigger cut

    If markets expect a 0.50% cut but the Fed only delivers 0.25%, that’s seen as “too tight.”
    Result:

    10-year yield jumps

    Mortgage rates move higher

    4. Fed messaging (“forward guidance”) matters more than the cut

    Example:
    The Fed cuts today, but says:

    “We may need to slow or pause future cuts.”

    That single sentence can raise mortgage rates, even though short-term rates just went lower.

    5. Inflation surprises after the cut

    If new inflation data comes in hot after a Fed cut, the bond market panics → yields go up → mortgage rates go up.

    Quick summary
    Fed Cuts Rates Mortgage Rates Move
    ✔ Expected or priced in Can rise or stay flat
    ✔ Fed hints at fewer future cuts Often rise
    ✔ Inflation remains sticky Rise
    ✔ Economy looks unstable Rise
    ❗ Only when 10-year yield falls Mortgage rates fall

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    5 m
  • New Loan limits have increased in 2026
    Nov 27 2025

    Here are the anticipated conforming loan limits for Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac for 2026 (pending official announcement by the Federal Housing Finance Agency):
    819,000 is the new loan amount, so you can buy a home for $862,105 and only put 5% down to keep in conforming
    Interesting how prices of homes have come down, and the loan amounts have increased, so it's another way of not having to go to Jumbo financing.

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    3 m
  • FNMA now has no credit scores when applying for a mortgage
    Nov 20 2025

    What Does “No Credit Score Mortgage” Mean (for FNMA)

    Policy Change

    As of November 15, 2025, Fannie Mae’s automated underwriting system (Desktop Underwriter, or DU) will no longer require a minimum third-party credit score.
    Fannie Mae
    Instead of relying on a fixed cutoff (like “you must have a 620 FICO”), DU will use Fannie Mae’s proprietary risk-assessment model to evaluate credit risk.
    Fannie Mae
    That model considers more than just credit score: payment history, “trended” credit data, nontraditional credit sources like rent, utilities, and so on.
    Fannie Mae
    Nontraditional Credit Allowed
    Fannie Mae’s Selling Guide includes rules for “nontraditional credit” — that is, credit history documented without a standard credit score.
    Selling Guide

    When a borrower truly has no credit score, lenders must document nontraditional credit history. For example, they might look at 12 months of cash flow or payment history (rent, utilities, insurance, etc.).
    Fannie requires borrowers without any credit score to complete homeownership education before closing.
    Selling Guide
    Why This Could Be a Good Thing
    Greater Access to Homeownership
    This change will likely help people who are “credit invisible” (i.e., they don’t have a traditional credit score) get conventional mortgages.
    Historically underserved groups (such as those who rent, use nontraditional credit, or have limited credit history) could benefit.
    More Holistic Underwriting
    By removing the rigid score minimum, DU can look at the whole financial picture. This means more weight on things like debt-to-income ratio, reserves, employment, and nontraditional credit.

    Using more data (rent history, payment trends) can be more predictive of whether someone will make mortgage payments than just a credit score.
    Potential Cost Benefits for Some Borrowers
    If done right, borrowers with limited credit but solid finances could qualify for a conventional loan (which may have more favorable terms than some other high-risk or subprime options).
    It may reduce the need for more expensive or risky loan products for people who don’t fit the “traditional” credit profile.
    Risks and Downsides
    Higher Risk for Lenders → Possibly Higher Cost
    Without a credit score floor, lenders are taking on more uncertainty. They may require larger down payments, lower loan-to-value ratios (LTVs), or more reserves to compensate.

    If the borrower is truly “credit invisible,” the lender’s verification burden is higher (to safely assess risk), which could make underwriting more stringent in non-score cases.

    Potential for Higher Interest Rates / Pricing Risks

    Even if a borrower qualifies, the interest rate may be higher compared to someone with a very good credit score, because the risk model may not “discount” as heavily without a high score.

    There could be loan-level price adjustments (or other risk-based pricing) tied to the riskiness of nontraditional credit profiles.

    Performance Uncertainty

    This is a newer underwriting paradigm for Fannie Mae, so long-term performance is less “battle-tested” at scale for certain nontraditional credit borrowers.

    If default rates go up for these loans, it could have negative implications for lenders or investors (or for how such loans are underwritten in the future).

    Lender Overlays

    Just because Fannie Mae has this policy doesn’t mean all lenders will be aggressive in offering no-score loans. Some may add their own stricter requirements (“overlays”) that make it harder than it sounds.

    You’ll need a lender that is comfortable underwriting nontraditional credit and willing to do the extra documentation.

    Is It a Good Thing For You Personally?

    It depends on your situation:

    Y

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    5 m
  • What would the 50 year amortization mean
    Nov 13 2025

    ✅ the principal you borrowed
    ✅ all interest paid over the years
    ❌ It does NOT include taxes, insurance, or HOA unless noted.

    Because longer terms spread payments out more slowly, they lower the monthly payment but massively increase total interest paid.

    Below is a simple example to show how total payments change by loan term.

    ✅ Example: $300,000 loan at 6% interest
    15-Year Mortgage

    Monthly payment: ≈ $2,531

    Total paid: ≈ $455,682

    Total interest: ≈ $155,682

    30-Year Mortgage

    Monthly payment: ≈ $1,799

    Total paid: ≈ $647,514

    Total interest: ≈ $347,514

    40-Year Mortgage

    Monthly payment: ≈ $1,650

    Total paid: ≈ $792,089

    Total interest: ≈ $492,089

    50-Year Mortgage

    Monthly payment: ≈ $1,595

    Total paid: ≈ $956,140

    Total interest: ≈ $656,140

    ✅ Summary: Total Payments by Loan Term
    Term Monthly Payment Total Paid Over Life Total Interest
    15-Year ~$2,531 $455,682 $155,682
    30-Year ~$1,799 $647,514 $347,514
    40-Year ~$1,650 $792,089 $492,089
    50-Year ~$1,595 $956,140 $656,140
    ✅ Key Takeaway

    A longer mortgage = lower payment, but the total paid skyrockets because interest accrues for decades longer.

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    4 m
  • My prediction on what is going to happen next
    Nov 6 2025

    Here are the main types of events that typically cause the 10-year yield to drop:

    Economic slowdown or recession signs

    Weak GDP, rising unemployment, or falling consumer spending make investors expect lower future interest rates.

    Example: A bad jobs report or slowing manufacturing data often pushes yields lower.

    Federal Reserve rate cuts (or expectations of cuts)

    If the Fed signals or actually cuts rates, long-term yields like the 10-year typically decline.

    Markets anticipate lower inflation and slower growth ahead.

    Financial market stress or geopolitical tension

    During crises (wars, banking issues, political instability), investors seek safety in Treasuries — pushing prices up and yields down.

    Lower inflation or deflation data

    When inflation slows more than expected, the “real” return on Treasuries looks more attractive, bringing yields down.

    Dovish Fed comments or data suggesting easing ahead

    Even before actual rate cuts, if the Fed hints it might ease policy, yields often fall in anticipation.

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    6 m
  • Fed dropping rates next week , what does that exactly mean
    Oct 30 2025

    🏦 1. Fed Rate vs. Market Rates

    When the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it lowers the federal funds rate — the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans.
    That directly affects:

    Credit cards

    Auto loans

    Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs)
    These tend to move quickly with Fed changes.

    🏠 2. Mortgage Rates

    Mortgage rates are not directly set by the Fed — they’re more closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves based on investor expectations for:

    Future inflation

    Economic growth

    Fed policy in the future

    So, when the Fed signals a rate cut or actually cuts, Treasury yields often fall in anticipation, which can lead to lower mortgage rates — if investors believe inflation is under control and the economy is cooling.

    However:

    If markets think the Fed cut too early or inflation might return, yields can actually rise, keeping mortgage rates higher.

    So, mortgage rates don’t always fall right after a Fed cut.

    📉 In short:

    Fed cuts → short-term rates (credit cards, HELOCs) usually fall fast.

    Mortgage rates → might fall if inflation expectations drop and bond yields decline — but not guaranteed.

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