India is reporting 8%+ GDP growth and cooling inflation, yet stock market returns are muted, the rupee continues to weaken, and everyday expenses feel anything but stable.

So which reality should we trust?

In this episode, Deepak and Shray unpack the contradictions shaping India's economy today. From headline vs core inflation to GDP data quality, rupee depreciation, and why markets aren't rewarding growth, they connect macro numbers to lived experience.

A nuanced, data-driven conversation on what truly lies beneath the headlines and what it means for investors, policy watchers, and India's economic trajectory heading into 2026 and beyond.

Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
01:15 - GDP growth 8.2% but contradictions everywhere
02:32 - Are we booming or fizzling out?
02:55 - Let's start with inflation
08:09 - Headline inflation 0.71% vs core inflation 4.1%
10:07 - Why people don't believe 0.7% inflation
12:08 - Bangalore rent example - 28k to 60k
15:10 - Supply will moderate rent prices
17:37 - Inflation expectations matter
21:05 - Uncertainty makes planning difficult
22:07 - What's happening with the rupee?
22:36 - Economics standing on its head
24:08 - Gold making current account look worse
28:31 - RBI needs to decide - control or not?
31:37 - GDP - 8.2% real growth
35:29 - Base year problem - still using 2011-12
40:37 - Discrepancies in GDP calculation
43:11 - What's driving growth?
43:16 - Manufacturing doing well at 9%
47:43 - Financial services growth worrying
48:05 - Is 8% growth here to stay?
51:42 - China grew 10% for 15 years
56:22 - Stock market - just a bad year?
59:16 - Small players will benefit more
1:05:38 - SEBI new rules on TER and BER
1:06:04 - What are the changes?
1:17:47 - TER vs BER explained
1:23:23 - Who benefits from new rules?
1:30:18 - Brokerage reduction impact
1:34:16 - Impact on sell-side research
1:36:17 - BER is more comparable going forward

Shray sits down with Deepak Shenoy from Capitalmind to expose how proxy advisors, index manufacturers, credit rating agencies, and one costly habit are secretly making decisions about your investments.

What we uncover:

Proxy Advisors: How Glass Lewis and ISS voted against Elon Musk's $1 trillion Tesla package—and why their word has become gospel for fund managers managing your money

Index Manufacturers: Why NSE and BSE make subjective calls in supposedly "objective" indices. The HDFC-HDFC Bank merger and Reliance-Jio demerger reveal they're acting more like fund managers than neutral rule-followers

Current Account Waste: ₹21 lakh crores sitting idle in corporate accounts earning zero interest—₹40,000 crores in lost profits annually

Deepak breaks down why passive investing isn't truly passive, how the NBFC rule hurts startups, and why transparency matters as index funds take over the market.

Timestamps:
0:00 - Three institutions controlling your money

1:44 - Proxy Advisors - Fighting Elon Musk

6:28 - Proxy advisors have their own agendas

13:30 - Proxy advisors becoming gospel

17:16 - Index Manufacturers - Second institution

18:24 - 35 lakh crores active vs 12 lakh crores passive

20:22 - Index no longer objective function

26:45 - Index manufacturers becoming fund managers

32:01 - Credit Rating Agencies - Third institution

35:21 - Big names get triple A ratings easily

37:52 - Market knew ILFS wasn't triple A

41:37 - Don't link things strictly to ratings

46:25 - Why so much money in current accounts?

49:00 - Could add 40,000 crores to profits

49:36 - Startup NBFC rule problem

56:37 - Reduce need for inefficient buffers

For 17 years, Deepak Shenoy has made annual Diwali predictions about markets, crashes, interest rates, and more. But how many were actually right?

Shray sits down with Deepak Shenoy from Capitalmind to examine his prediction history from 2007 to 2024. He correctly called the 2008 crash and Trump's 2024 victory. But real estate and gold? Wrong almost every year.

We break down why most predictions fail and what makes the rare successful ones different. Deepak explains the three elements of valid predictions (direction, magnitude, timeframe), why cash on sidelines signals crashes, how AI bubbles mirror 2000, and why interest rates are easy to predict but impossible to profit from.

This episode breaks down crashes, bubbles, and market timing, offering honest takes that you can actually use. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more real insights on building wealth in Indian markets!

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Chapters:

00:00 Introduction & 2024 Predictions Recap
01:00 Will There Be a Market Crash in 2025?
03:40 How AI Could Trigger the Next Crash
06:15 Why This Time Is Different from 2008
09:40 US Recession + Inflation = Stagflation?
12:10 Why Indian Markets May Keep Rising
15:00 The Real Estate Prediction Trap
20:20 Gold, Inflation & Interest Rate Outlook
28:20 Japan's 30-Year Debt Problem Explained
33:40 Can the Rupee Go Global?
40:20 Why Predictions Usually Fail
46:00 Don't Predict, Respond Instead
50:10 Deepak's 2025 Predictions Recap
58:00 Closing Thoughts

When Indian Equity Markets Go Sideways: Are Alternative Assets Worth It? Indian equities have been flat for over a year. So where should you actually put your money?

Shray sits down with Deepak Shenoy from Capital Mind to break it all down. Silver just hit $50 for the first time in 45 years.

Deepak explains the Hunt Brothers saga, the Thailand import drama, and why silver might only deserve 2% of your portfolio.

Gold – it's outperformed. But should you buy now? Only 30% of the time has gold beaten Nifty over 10 years.

We also discuss foreign stocks, why debt funds aren't just parking lots, and whether India at 21-22x earnings is still expensive.

If you're confused about where to deploy capital right now, this episode is for you. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more insights on building real wealth in Indian markets!

#investing #stockmarket #alternativeassets #gold #bitcoin #portfoliomanagement

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Chapters:

0:00 - Intro
2:11 - Silver: What's Happening Right Now?
7:19 - Hunt Brothers: The Biggest Silver Bet Ever
11:58 - Should You Own Silver?
15:49 - Why Diamonds Are a Terrible Investment
17:38 - Gold: Why Deepak Was Wrong
21:14 - Gold as an Inflation Hedge
23:03 - When Gold Could Crash 40%
27:05 - Why We Treat Gold Differently Than Stocks
30:00 - Land Deals: How to Make 400% Returns
32:20 - Why Luxury Watches Beat Stocks
34:45 - Bitcoin: The Leverage Problem
41:32 - Bitcoin's Altcoin Curse
44:08 - Quantum Computing Could Kill Bitcoin
47:32 - How Much Bitcoin Should You Own?
50:22 - When Big Winners Become Too Big
52:01 - Foreign Stocks: The Smart Diversification
56:46 - Debt Funds: Beyond Just Parking Money
1:01:47 - Debt Market: Hidden Inefficiencies
1:04:06 - Why Debt Funds Deserve Your Money
1:06:07 - Why Bank FDs Are Ripping You Off
1:08:27 - Is India Still Too Expensive to Invest?
1:11:06 - Why 20x PE Actually Makes Sense
1:13:54 - Final Thoughts

What do DreamFolks, Dream11, JSW Steel, and Donald Trump's H-1B visa policy all have in common? Each shows how unexpected risks can reshape markets and investments overnight.

Deepak Shenoy and Shray Chandra break down 5 types of risk you never saw coming from business model collapse and legal shocks to regulation, policy changes, and passive investing illusions.

Chapters:
00:00 - Intro
01:53 - DreamFolks
16:19 - JSW Steel and Bhushan Steel & Power
30:41 - Dream11 & Crypto currency
41:56 - H1B Visa situation
52:10 - When money moves markets

ESOPs (Employee Stock Options) are one of the least understood parts of compensation in India. Are they wealth creators or just glorified lottery tickets? We break down everything you need to know, the trade-off between salary and ESOPs, the risks of taxation and dilution, and how exits, IPOs, and secondary markets really work. From early employee bets to Flipkart's game-changing Walmart deal, we explore stories that show both the pitfalls and life-changing rewards. If you've ever been offered ESOPs or are considering them. This podcast will help you make informed decisions about your financial future.

Chapters:
00:00 - Intro
02:57 - Salary vs ESOP: the real trade-off
15:02 - ESOPs ≠ Shares?
28:35 - Should companies help you exit?
37:41 - Black-Scholes for expense
40:39 - Why not just give shares?
45:59 - Promoters/Directors rules in India
50:11 - What every employee must check in their ESOP package!
57:20 - After the payout: diversify & spend

What if money wasn't the goal… but the tool? Deepak Shenoy and Shray Chandra dive deep into how money can enable experiences, freedom, and meaning, instead of becoming an end in itself.

00:00 Intro
02:33 GDP, Good Life, and Getting Real About Returns
15:14 The Real Cost of Wealth (and the Price of a Good Life)
31:20 Planning for Joy, Not Just Returns
43:34 Compartmentalize to Live Fully
01:04:04 I have enough money, what do I do now?
01:13:23 Is winning in life all about money?

In this episode, Deepak and Shray unpack the SEBI allegations against global trading giant Jane Street and explore whether this is a case of shrewd arbitrage or market manipulation in India's underregulated options landscape.

In doing so, they reveal deeper structural issues. An outsized derivatives market, regulatory blind spots, tax inequities, and unchecked index power that favour global giants over domestic traders all act as leading factors to the outsized profits made by the firm. The episode ends with a call for reform: position limits, STT rationalisation, index oversight, and a level playing field to restore market integrity.