The July payroll report confirmed the US economy is heading for trouble. Key parts of it showed recession has likely already begun. As reality dawns across the marketplace, focus turns to what comes next now that the soft landing didn't land.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

With the questions of "what" and "when" now mainly answered, we can finally focus on "how bad." To start putting together some answers, we'll use three different markets and sets of indications each examine a separate aspect of the recession proposition; short run, intermediate, and the long term.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A whole bunch of bad data, much of it focused on deterioration in the US labor market (pre-July payrolls). That unleashed huge swings in rates markets and forward rates. One reason for all this is the historical pattern is perfectly clear. What we're seeing right now happens EVERY TIME. No exceptions.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

FOMC Monetary Policy Statement
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htm

Federal Reserve Chair Powell Press Conference July 31
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hb1eHcqGpY0

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Central banks don't hike rates during a recession. Or do they? The Bank of Japan just did and for the second time. By doing it, BoJ is laying itself bare; both in terms of transparently acting politically and maybe more important exposing the lie about interest rate policies. Peter Pan is not happy.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bank of Japan Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations and Decision on the Plan
for the Reduction of the Purchase Amount of Japanese Government Bonds
https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2024/k240731a.pdf

Nikkei Bank of Japan raises interest rate to 0.25%, open to further hike this year
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Bank-of-Japan/Bank-of-Japan-raises-interest-rate-to-0.25-open-to-further-hike-this-year

Japan Times Bank of Japan delivers one-two punch few were expecting
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/07/31/economy/boj-rates/

Wall Street Journal Bank of Japan Raises Rates, Driving Up Yen
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/bank-of-japan-hikes-rates-tapers-bond-buying-in-fresh-step-to-policy-normalization-bc8c33fb

Bloomberg Japan’s Central Bank Hikes Key Rate Hours Before the Fed
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-31/boj-hikes-interest-rate-unveils-plan-to-cut-back-bond-buying

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Hiring in the US absolutely plunged in June, so much you really have to see it to believe it. At the same time, global fast food giant McDonalds reported lower same store sales for the first time since 2020. The reason why people can no longer afford to eat as much under the golden arches isn't necessarily price changes, what's changed recently is the alarming retreat in employment.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

BLS JOLTS press release July 30, 2024
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm

CNBC McDonald’s earnings, revenue miss estimates as consumer pullback worsens
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/29/mcdonalds-mcd-q2-2024-earnings.html

CNBC McDonald’s executives admit diners think prices are too high, say they’re working to create value
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/29/mcdonalds-earnings-executives-say-prices-are-too-high.html

Philly Fed Large Bank Credit Card and 
Mortgage Data
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/large-bank-credit-card-and-mortgage-data
https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A whole lot going on in the eurodollar shadows. Record high repo pool (reverse repo) at the Fed. Bull steepening even more aggressively outside of Treasuries. Primary dealers absolutely hoarding collateral to a degree we haven't seen since March 2020. Banks around the world heavily buying safety and liquidity. The dollar hammering currencies. But why?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Reuters Rupee hits record low on month-end dollar demand; RBI helps cap losses
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-hits-record-low-month-end-dollar-demand-rbi-helps-cap-losses-2024-07-29/

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

According to the latest update, US consumers are out of savings. As nominal incomes have slowed way down, consumers have cut back only somewhat mainly spending on goods - causing the goods recession every big-name company is currently warning over. With unemployment rising and savings gone, there's no margin left even to maintain the current rate of decline.

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Companies around the economy are increasingly warning about the negative effects of the goods recession, one after another missing revenue and sales targets/expectations. The latest from several of the largest global businesses point to deepening macroeconomic setbacks. Even the automobile industry is showing signs of serious weakness, starting with pricing. No surprise commodity markets are sharply lower in spite of supply factors as the downturn is set to spread.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Markets Tear Up Popular Trades That Reached ‘Stupid Levels’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-25/everything-you-thought-you-knew-about-2024-markets-has-changed

EuroNews Nestlé downgrades sales outlook and looks to new products for growth
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/07/25/nestle-downgrades-sales-outlook-and-looks-to-new-products-for-growth

CNBC Unilever pops 6% on margin guidance raise, Ben & Jerry’s spinoff on track to complete by end of 2025
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/25/unilever-pops-6percent-on-guidance-raise-says-ben-jerrys-spinoff-on-track.html

STMicroelectronics Reports 2024 Second Quarter Financial Results
https://investors.st.com/static-files/9f07c6a1-5da9-49cf-8a95-4c301436fb0b

The Detroit News Ford CFO says growing dealer inventory 'worries me'
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2024/06/11/ford-cfo-john-lawler-growing-dealer-inventory-worry/74056579007/

J.D. Power-GlobalData U.S. Automotive Forecast for July 2024
https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20240726147635/jd-power-globaldata-us-automotive-forecast-for-july-2024

CNBC U.S. crude oil on pace for third weekly decline as China demand outweighs U.S. growth
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/26/crude-oil-prices-today.html

CNBC U.S. crude oil falls nearly 2% to lowest levels in six weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/23/oil-prices-drop-to-lowest-levels-in-more-than-a-month.html

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU