Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have dominated activity in currency markets in the past fortnight or so. The safe-haven dollar gained across the board as the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified, although news of a US brokered ceasefire has buoyed risk appetite and sent the greenback crashing to its lowest level in three years.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its June policy meeting, with FOMC members appearing divided over the path ahead for policy. Meanwhile, the latest data suggests that Britain’s labour market appears to be faltering, but what does this mean for the UK economy and the pound?

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The dollar has continued to lose ground against most major and emerging market currencies in the past few weeks. A US court ruling that deemed White House tariffs to be illegal has been delayed pending an appeal. Trade negotiations are ongoing, although these have failed to yield much progress thus far. Investors are also fearful that Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax bill could lead to a sharp increase in US debt in the next few years.

Thus far, however, the world’s largest economy is holding up remarkably well. Will a US recession be avoided in 2025? And what do the latest UK data surprises mean for the Bank of England and the pound?

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US tariff headlines continue to dominate the narrative in financial markets. Fears over a US recession triggered a sharp sell-off in US equities, Treasuries and the dollar last month. Yet, signs of progress in trade negotiations, particularly following the news of a US-China trade deal, have lifted optimism, and raised hopes that the economic impact of the tariffs will be less significant than initially anticipated.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by another 25 basis points last week. MPC members appear perhaps as divided as ever over the path ahead for UK rates. The bank’s communications were hawkish, however, suggesting that a “gradual” pace of cuts lies ahead. But, what does this mean for sterling?

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The US dollar collapsed to its lowest level in three years this week, with investors still reeling from the unveiling of (and subsequent delay to) President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Yet, with Trump and his top team softening their stance towards China, and the President backtracking on his calls to remove Jerome Powell from his position as chair of the FOMC, has the tide turned for the US currency?

We also look ahead to the release of next week’s highly important US GDP report. Is the world’s largest economy on course to post a shock contraction in the first quarter? And is a US recession inevitable in 2025?

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It’s been a barely believable few days in financial markets since President Trump unveiled the details of his reciprocal tariffs during his so-called “Liberation Day” on 2nd April. Risk assets crashed on the realisation that the tariffs would be significantly more aggressive than anyone had been anticipating. The dramatic 90-day pause to all trade levies (China aside) has triggered a fresh bout of volatility in markets, and some stocks indices posted among their largest one-day rallies this century.

We’ve seen a non-typical reaction in financial markets, however. The traditional safe-havens, US Treasuries and the dollar, have sold-off aggressively, with investors seemingly losing faith in American exceptionalism. The euro has emerged as a de facto safe-haven, and EUR/USD has soared to its strongest position in three years. What do our analysts make of the chaotic week in markets? And what might happen next?

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In this week’s episode of FX Talk, Matt and Roman are joined by our Sao Paulo analyst, Eduardo Moutinho, to discuss the latest headlines in the currency market. The dollar has sold-off sharply against most currencies in recent weeks as investors fear a slowdown in US growth. Yet, with the Federal Reserve sticking to its cautious approach to cuts, is this move lower in the greenback perhaps overdone?

Meanwhile, the euro has surged above the $1.09 level this month, buoyed by the news of a massive fiscal stimulus package in Germany. Is this a game changing moment for the Euro Area economy and the common currency?

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President Trump has followed through with plans to slap massive 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while also unveiling fresh 10% duties on China. The US dollar would ordinarily be trading higher under such circumstances, but the greenback has sold-off sharply across the board. What is fuelling the move? And how concerning is the recent deterioration in US economic news?

Meanwhile, last week’s Ukraine discussions in the White House descended into a farce. European currencies are performing well, however, as markets take an optimistic view on the situation. What do our analysts make of an extraordinary hectic couple of weeks in financial markets?

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The outlook for UK interest rates has been clouded once again this week by strong data on the labour market and inflation. The main inflation rate jumped to a 10-month high in January, while the core rate is now printing at nearly double the BoE’s 2% target. Could this herald a slower pace of rate reductions ahead? Or will the committee prioritise supporting Britain’s admittedly fragile growth outlook?

Elsewhere, European currencies have been buoyed by hopes of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Yet, investors are skeptical that the negotiations will lead to anything more than a temporary pause in the conflict, which is acting to keep the rally in risk in check. Our analysts discuss all the latest developments and more in the latest episode of FX Talk.

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