Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌎 Soybeans
Soybean futures advanced on Tuesday, with the most heavily traded Mar26 contract gaining nearly 12 cents to settle near $11.23 per bushel. Strength was tied largely to continued optimism surrounding Chinese demand after last week’s signals that China may boost this season’s US soybean purchase target. The rally came despite USDA leaving its US soybean export, crush, and ending stocks projections unchanged. Meanwhile, USDA raised its Brazilian soybean production outlook to 180 mmt.

🌽 Corn
USDA reduced its outlook for US corn ending stocks, primarily reflecting stronger export expectations. The adjustment provided modest underlying support to the corn market.

🌾 Wheat
Wheat balance sheets saw minimal changes, with ending stocks estimates largely steady.

🏛️ US–China Developments
US Treasury staff visited China last week to reinforce communication between Washington and Beijing. Discussions centered on preparations for a future meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. While no official date or location has been announced, the meeting is expected in the coming weeks. President Trump also recently described a productive phone call with President Xi Jinping, during which China again referenced the possibility of larger US soybean purchases.

🏗️ US Grain Storage Capacity
The University of Illinois highlighted a growing structural concern within US grain markets. After nearly two decades of steady growth, US grain storage capacity has largely stopped expanding. At the same time, crop production continues to trend higher, tightening the margin between production and available storage. Elevated construction costs, higher interest rates, and long-term production uncertainty appear to be limiting investment. If this dynamic persists, the industry may face greater basis volatility and logistical bottlenecks.

🇧🇷 Brazil Inflation & Interest Rates
Brazilian inflation moved modestly higher in January, with consumer prices rising annually and remaining above the central bank’s target. Despite inflation pressures, policymakers continue to signal that rate cuts may begin in March. Markets remain divided on the pace of easing. Brazil’s benchmark interest rate remains historically high, helping shape currency flows and global competitiveness.

🐄 Brazil Beef & Feedlot Expansion
Brazil’s cattle feeding sector continued its rapid expansion. Feedlot placements rose sharply last year, reflecting an ongoing shift toward more grain-intensive production systems. Brazil has strengthened its position in global beef markets, remaining the world’s largest exporter with China as its dominant customer. Shipments to the US also increased significantly amid tight domestic cattle supplies.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌱 Grain Markets

China returned to the U.S. market on Monday with a flash sale of 264,000 mt (10 million bushels) of corn for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.
Despite the headline, soybean futures ended lower, with the Mar ’26 contract down nearly 5 cents to settle near $11.11.
Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 10.15 mmt (accumulated export sales plus Monday’s flash sale). Roughly half of the 3.1 mmt sold to unknown destinations will likely be tagged to China, pushing total sales to ~11.7 mmt, very close to the White House’s 12 mmt target.
President Trump’s recent comments suggest China could ultimately push current marketing-year purchases toward 20 mmt.

🚢 Export Inspections

Corn: 1.3 mmt (51 mil bu)
⬆️ 14% vs prior week | ⬇️ 4.2% vs last year

Soybeans: 1.1 mmt (42 mil bu)
⬇️ 14% vs prior week | ⬆️ 3.5% vs last year

China accounted for ~66% of total inspections. Soybean shipments to China included 3 PNW cargoes and 9 Gulf cargoes.

Wheat: 580,130 mt (21 mil bu)
⬆️ 76% vs prior week | ⬆️ 1.7% vs last year

📊 USDA Preview

The USDA will release its Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11:00am CST.

Expectations:
U.S. corn ending stocks: unchanged
U.S. soybean ending stocks: slightly lower
U.S. wheat ending stocks: modestly lower
World stocks: mostly unchanged
Brazil corn & soybean production: likely revised higher

🛢️ Soybean Oil & Crush

Soybean oil rallied to its highest level in over six months following news that the U.S. and India reached a trade agreement that would reduce or eliminate duties on several U.S. ag products, including soybean oil.
India is the world’s largest edible oil importer, buying roughly 16 mmt annually. Prices could strengthen further once the agreement is finalized, though a record Brazilian soybean crop and rapidly advancing harvest may limit upside.

🚜 Farm Economy

Farm bankruptcies rose sharply in 2025, climbing 46% year over year to 315 filings, marking the second straight year of increases.
The Midwest and Southeast led the way, with Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska posting the highest totals. Between 2017 and 2024, roughly 160,000 U.S. farm operations exited the industry. With losses expected to persist across most crop sectors, bankruptcies and farm exits are likely to increase again in 2026.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🥩 Cattle & Beef

President Trump signed an executive order allowing up to 100,000 metric tons of Argentine beef to enter the U.S. this year under a lower tariff rate. The goal is to reduce retail beef prices.
• Imports will consist only of lean beef trimmings, used primarily in ground beef
• A similar move last fall triggered sharp selloffs in cattle futures
• Beef prices did not fall meaningfully last time
• Markets will be watching closely to see if funds react again

🌱 Soybeans

Soybeans rallied for a third straight session on Friday.
• The Mar26 contract settled near $11.15, the highest since early December
• The rally followed Trump’s comments suggesting China may boost U.S. purchases to 20mmt
• Traders remain skeptical China will follow through
• Brazil’s record crop continues to hang over the market

🌽 Corn & 🌾 Wheat

Corn and wheat futures ended the session lower.
• No fresh bullish catalysts
• Focus remains on demand, fund positioning, and policy developments

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Geopolitics

Trump’s planned April visit to China may be at risk.
• The U.S. is preparing a potential $20B arms sale to Taiwan
• This follows an $11B package approved in December
• China has criticized the move, warning it could strain relations
• Trade talks could become more complicated if tensions escalate

🇮🇳 India Trade

India is considering limited ag-market access for U.S. products.
• Possible tariff reductions on soybean oil and DDGS
• India continues to block imports of GM food crops like soybeans and dairy
• Indian farmers are pushing back, citing risks to small producers

🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & Crop

Brazil’s soybean harvest is moving fast.
• ~17% harvested vs ~10% this time last year
• Yields remain strong across most regions
• StoneX projects a record 181.6mmt crop
• Argentina remains dry but rain is forecast over the next 10 days

📊 CFTC & Funds

The latest CFTC report showed modest fund buying, but it’s already outdated.
• Funds were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat during the reporting window
• Post-report price action suggests positioning has shifted significantly
• Private estimates now show large specs heavily long soybeans

⛽ Ethanol & E15

The push for year-round E15 sales continues.
• E15 accounts for ~30% of Iowa fuel sales
• Usage is growing roughly 45% annually
• Draft legislation expected by mid-February
• Political divisions could slow progress

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌱 Soybeans Lead the Rally

Soybean futures pushed higher again Thursday, building on momentum from President Trump’s comments suggesting China could increase U.S. soybean purchases this season. While some traders are buying into the optimism, others remain skeptical that verbal commitments will turn into real demand—especially during Brazil’s peak export window. Corn and wheat futures also finished the session higher.

💰 USDA: Farm Profits Jump on Government Payments

USDA’s Economic Research Service says farm income rebounded last year, largely due to a sharp increase in direct government payments. Looking ahead, USDA expects farm income to level off somewhat, with payments remaining elevated relative to recent years.

⚖️ Fertilizer Prices Under DOJ Scrutiny

The Iowa Corn Growers Association is pressing the Department of Justice for updates on its investigation into fertilizer pricing. The group says high input costs are adding to financial stress across farm country and wants clarity on whether consolidation in the fertilizer industry is limiting competition.

🚢 Export Sales Remain Soft

Weekly export sales were underwhelming across the board. Corn sales declined again, soybean sales hit a marketing-year low, and wheat sales came in near the bottom of expectations. While China was the top soybean buyer for the week, overall demand remains sluggish.

🌧️ Drought Still a Concern

Cold temperatures limited drought improvement despite some recent precipitation. Frozen soils and low Mississippi River levels continue to restrict barge traffic, while drought conditions across the High Plains remain largely unchanged.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌱 China & US Soybeans

China is considering boosting US soybean purchases. In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Donald Trump said China may raise its current-season buying target from 12 mmt to 20 mmt, sparking a sharp rally in soybean futures.

That said, it’s far from certain those additional purchases actually happen. After recently fulfilling its initial commitment, China has shifted back to cheaper South American supplies. Brazil is on track for a record soybean crop, keeping Brazilian prices attractive during the heart of their export window.

China has so far purchased 9.65 mmt of US soybeans for this marketing year, with a large share still unshipped. Trump’s comments imply potential additional buying before the August 31 marketing-year end — but the big question remains:
➡️ Will China really buy and ship US soybeans during peak Brazilian export season?
➡️ Are we headed toward a rare contra-seasonal export program tied to trade tensions?

Price action suggests optimism — even as many traders and analysts remain deeply pessimistic.

🚜 Farm Crisis Concerns Grow

Former US farm leaders and lawmakers are sounding the alarm on the worsening farm economy. In a letter to the Trump administration, former US Department of Agriculture officials and industry leaders warned of a potential “widespread collapse of American agriculture.”

They cited rising input costs and abundant global grain supplies that have pushed prices low enough for farmers to lose money three years in a row. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that average farm operating loan sizes jumped sharply last year.

While $12 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance payments are set to go out soon, most agree the aid will only cover a fraction of producer losses.

🌽 Ethanol Production Slumps

US ethanol production fell hard last week, driven by plant slowdowns tied to high natural gas prices, limited availability, and severe winter weather. Output dropped well below the prior week and last year’s levels.

Ethanol stocks declined, while margins actually improved across much of the Corn Belt. According to Reuters data, margins range from modestly negative to modestly positive when factoring in corn, DDGs, and inputs.

🐄 Texas Braces for Screwworm Threat

Texas ranchers are preparing for a potential return of New World screwworm. Since late December, 20 cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas, Mexico — just south of the Texas border. The threat prompted Greg Abbott to issue a disaster declaration to unlock state resources.

Screwworm could cost Texas cattle producers hundreds of millions and hit the broader state economy even harder. The USDA plans to release glow-in-the-dark sterile flies in northern Mexico and south Texas, but full eradication would take years. Meanwhile, the continued ban on Mexican feeder cattle imports is adding further support to cattle prices.

🌾 Corn Flash Sale

USDA also reported a flash sale of corn Wednesday. Exporters sold 130,480 mt to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery. Total accumulated corn sales are running well ahead of last year’s pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🏛️ 45Z Clean Fuel Tax Credit — New Guidance
The US Treasury Department and IRS released long-awaited proposed guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production tax credit this week. Biofuel and agricultural groups largely welcomed the rules, citing improved clarity after years of delays.
Key takeaways from the proposal:
Fuels produced after December 31, 2025, must use feedstocks grown exclusively in the US, Mexico, or Canada
The 45Z credit is extended through 2029
The special SAF credit rate is eliminated for fuel produced after January 1, 2026
The indirect land use change (ILUC) penalty is removed
A 60-day public comment period is now open, with a public hearing scheduled for May 28

🧾 45Z — Important Context & Clarifications
45Z was enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, but implementation has been repeatedly delayed
It is a clean fuel production credit, claimed by biofuel producers (ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, etc.)
This is not 45Q, which applies to carbon capture and sequestration
In most cases, plants can claim either 45Z or 45Q—not both
Non-SAF fuels can receive up to $1.00 per gallon
Only a limited number of plants claimed 45Z in 2025
Plants are now preparing for 2026 production, though rules remain proposed
There is no direct payment to farmers—plants will decide how low-CI premiums are shared
Treasury plans to release a Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) to address farming practices

🚜 US Farmer Sentiment Slides
Farmer sentiment dropped sharply in January. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed:
A steep decline in current conditions and future expectations
Nearly 60% of farmers expect bad financial times over the next year
Long-term pessimism rose meaningfully
Concerns about US agricultural exports increased
This highlights the difficult backdrop facing producers even as policy clarity improves.

🇧🇷 Brazil Ethanol Production Outlook
Brazilian ethanol production is expected to rise this year as-
Ethanol prices improve
Sugar prices weaken
New corn ethanol plants come online
A large sugarcane crop boosts output
StoneX projects strong growth, with corn ethanol production jumping sharply. This could push Brazil toward higher ethanol exports, and corn usage for ethanol may reach a record share of production.

🇨🇳 China’s “No. 1 Document” & Food Security
China unveiled its annual rural policy blueprint aimed at boosting food self-sufficiency. The plan emphasizes:
Higher grain and oilseed production
Diversified agricultural imports
Reduced reliance on traditional suppliers like the US and Canada
Expanded sourcing from South America and the Global South
New quotas on beef imports and tariffs on EU dairy
Increased investment in agricultural innovation

₿ Bitcoin Update
Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since November 2024, pressured by:
Liquidations of leveraged positions
Weak sentiment in crypto derivatives
Broader financial market volatility
Despite some institutional interest, everyday investor participation has slowed, leaving Bitcoin under continued pressure.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🇺🇸🇮🇳 US–India Trade Deal
The Trump administration announced a trade agreement with India that reduces tariffs on Indian imports into the US from 25% to 18%. In exchange, India agreed to remove tariffs and trade restrictions on US goods and halt purchases of Russian oil.
India also committed to purchasing more than $500 billion of American goods, including agricultural products. However, key details remain unclear, including when the deal takes effect and which specific products India will buy.

🌽 Grain Markets
Grain futures extended losses on Monday. The March 2026 corn contract fell roughly 3 cents to near $4.26 per bushel, while March 2026 soybeans slipped about 4 cents to around $10.60 per bushel.
Wheat futures also ended lower, pressured by concerns about frigid temperatures across the US Plains and the Black Sea region.

🚢 Export Inspections
US corn inspections declined last week but remain strong overall. The USDA reported inspections of 1.1 million metric tons for the week ending January 29, down 27% from the prior week and nearly 10% below the same week last year.
Soybean inspections came in near the high end of expectations at 1.3 million metric tons. That figure was slightly lower week-over-week but well above last year’s pace, with China accounting for roughly 56% of total shipments.
Wheat inspections totaled 326,828 metric tons, near the top of expectations. Shipments were lower versus the previous week but significantly higher than the same week last year.

🥩 Tyson Foods
Tyson Foods reported another difficult quarter for its beef segment, posting an adjusted operating loss of $143 million. Tight cattle supplies continue to push costs higher, and Tyson expects those conditions to persist through this year and into 2027.
In contrast, Tyson’s chicken segment posted year-over-year sales growth, marking a fifth straight quarter of volume gains. The company expects chicken to be the preferred protein this year due to affordability.

🇧🇷 Brazil Soybeans
Brazil’s soybean harvest continues to advance steadily. AgRural estimates that 10% of the crop had been harvested as of last Thursday, slightly ahead of last year’s pace.
StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate to a record 181.6 million metric tons, while Celeres lifted its forecast to 181.3 million.

🚜 Farm Aid Talks
Lawmakers continue to push for additional farmer assistance. Michigan Representative Kristen McDonald Rivet said more aid is needed to help farmers cope with high input costs and tariff-related disruptions.
She emphasized that federal aid is a temporary fix and that farmers ultimately need more reliable markets and predictable trade policy. McDonald is a co-sponsor of the proposed Farm and Family Relief Act of 2026, which calls for nearly $30 billion in aid. She believes Congress will approve the recently discussed $15 billion package by the end of the month.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/

Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095
Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG

🌽🌱 Grain Futures Recap

Grain futures finished lower on Friday, pressured by profit-taking and a rebound in the US dollar.

March corn slipped by nearly 3 cents to $4.28

March soybeans dropped 8 cents to $10.64

Wheat futures also declined, with Chicago March wheat down about 4 cents to $5.38

Markets also continue to price in strong Brazilian crop expectations, while traders assessed the impact of severe cold across the US Plains earlier this week and frigid temperatures in Ukraine.
👉 See grain charts below

🥇🥈 Gold & Silver: Historic Volatility

Precious metals suffered historic one-day losses on Friday.

Gold futures fell sharply

Silver posted its worst daily decline since 1980

The selloff followed President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which eased concerns about central bank independence and sent the US dollar sharply higher.

Longer term, metals may still find support from geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty, but Friday was a major reset.
👉 See gold, silver, and Dollar Index charts below

🏛️ Federal Reserve Update

President Trump officially selected Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair when Powell’s term ends in May.

Warsh has historically been a policy hawk

Recently shifted toward supporting lower rates

Viewed by markets as more inflation-focused than other rumored picks

One analyst summed it up:

“Because Warsh has been a policy hawk his entire life, his newfound dovishness looks very suspect.”

👉 See Dollar Index and Bloomberg Commodity Index charts below

📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its weekly COT report.

For the week ending January 27, funds were net buyers across major ag markets:

Corn

Soybeans

SRW wheat

👉 See Fund Tracker charts below

🚜 Farmer Assistance Update

Additional farmer aid remains under discussion in Washington.

According to John Boozman, the proposed $15B package was excluded from the current spending bill

Aid could still move forward as a standalone bill or disaster relief add-on

The $11B Farmer Bridge Assistance program is still scheduled to be distributed by February 28

🐄 Cattle Inventory: Historically Tight

The USDA cattle inventory report confirmed the smallest US herd since 1951.

Total herd: 86.2 million head

Beef cow numbers declined again

Slight uptick in replacement heifers, but not enough to signal real expansion

Bottom line: structurally bullish for the cattle market with no clear signs of herd rebuilding.