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🌽 Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA Reports
Corn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa — a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown.

📝 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST)
Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large.
• Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines
• US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases
• Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks
• October reports were skipped due to the shutdown

🚢 US Export Sales Return After Shutdown
For the week ending Sept 25:
• Corn: 1.4 mmt—down from last week; Mexico top buyer
• Soybeans: 870,500 mt—up 20%; Netherlands top buyer
• Wheat: 315,900 mt—near low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer

⛽ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still Strong
Weekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year:
• Output: -2.7%
• Stocks: +1%
Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reuters’ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc.

🇧🇷 Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean Outlook
Soybeans:
• Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year)
• Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exports
Corn:
• Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y)
• Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y)

🌧️ US Drought Monitor Update
Rainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week.
• Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana
• Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin
• High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of Oklahoma

US Areas in Drought:
🌽 Corn—29%
🫘 Soybeans—31%
🌾 Winter Wheat — 39%
🌾 Spring Wheat—17%
🐄 Cattle — 28%

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🌱 Grain Markets This Morning
Soybean futures posted fresh highs overnight. Jan26 pushed above $11.40 for the first time this year, marking the best continuation trade since July 2024. Corn and wheat followed higher — Dec25 corn added a few cents to trade near $4.35 as traders brace for a potential USDA yield cut on Friday. Dryness and disease across parts of the Corn Belt remain key storylines.

🇨🇳 US–China Truce & 2025 Soybean Acres
Market economist Ed Usset (University of Minnesota) says the trade truce is supportive for soybean demand, basis, and planted acreage next year. Soybean futures are at one-year highs, crush demand keeps climbing, and he compared today’s soybean story to early ethanol-era corn demand 15–20 years ago.
Early farm budgets still lean toward corn, but the Dec26 corn / Nov26 soybean ratio has softened with recent rallies in both markets.

🚫 China Has Stopped Buying US Soybeans (Again)
Chinese soybean purchases have paused following a brief round of post-truce buying. There’s growing doubt they’ll meet:
12mmt pledge before Jan 1
25mmt annually over the next three years
China never officially confirmed the commitments, and many analysts see them as more diplomatic than binding. Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper, China’s stocks are comfortable, and US beans still face a 13% tariff.
With the 43-day government shutdown now over, traders will look to tomorrow’s USDA export sales to reveal what (if anything) China bought in recent weeks.

🌾 Friday’s USDA Crop Production & WASDE (11:00am CST)
Expectations heading into Friday:
Corn: Large downward yield/production revision expected, though still record-large crop
Soybeans: Slight cuts to yield and production
Ending stocks: Modestly higher for corn/soy/wheat
Global stocks: Minimal changes expected
USDA skipped the October reports due to the shutdown, so this release covers two months of revisions.

🍌 Tariff Talk: Food Imports on the Table
The Trump administration is considering removing tariffs on food items not produced domestically — coffee, bananas, etc. The discussion comes after GOP losses in recent state/local elections where cost-of-living concerns were front and center.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says household costs should ease by the first half of 2026. He also reiterated that no final decision has been made on Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividend.
Many of the affected products are sourced from Brazil, and some traders think the administration may be preparing to drop current 50% tariffs on certain Brazilian imports. Beef imports are being discussed quietly given Trump's recent clash with high beef prices.

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🇨🇳 China Chooses Brazil
China’s state-owned COFCO has signed a $10B deal to purchase 20mmt of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other ag products. The agreement includes contracts with ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus.
Despite the recent US–China trade truce, Beijing has yet to make major US soybean purchases—and the 13% tariff on US soybeans remains in place. While much of this business likely would’ve happened anyway, it’s a bad look for the U.S. considering the White House’s touted 12mmt purchase floor due by January 1st.

🇹🇭 Thailand Boosts U.S. Corn Imports
As part of its U.S. trade concessions, Thailand will raise its annual feed-corn import quota from 54,700mt to 1mmt — and eliminate the 20% in-quota tariff.
Imports will be allowed Feb 1–June 30 to protect domestic producers. Thailand’s total feed demand is projected at 21.8mmt, with about 60% imported, mainly corn, soybean meal, and wheat. The country isn’t a top-10 global importer, but it’s a notable shift in regional demand.

🏛️ Shutdown Nears an End
The Senate passed a temporary funding bill Monday, and the House votes today. The measure would fund most agencies through January, with USDA funded through September 30.
All unpaid federal workers will be compensated, and no layoffs are expected through January. Still, it may take weeks for USDA reporting and air travel to normalize.
Traders are watching for the return of two key reports:
1️⃣ CFTC Commitment of Traders – what are “the funds” doing?
2️⃣ USDA Export Sales – has China actually bought anything?

🌽 WASDE & Crop Production Ahead
The USDA’s November reports drop Friday at 11:00am CST. Markets expect:
A downward revision to U.S. corn yield and production
Slight declines for soybeans
Marginal increases to U.S. ending stocks
Because of the shutdown, October’s reports were skipped—so this release carries extra weight.

📈 Grain Market Recap
Futures were mixed Tuesday—corn and Chicago wheat gained modestly, while soybeans slipped.
Traders continue to assess the pace of a government reopening and China’s lack of buying activity despite the trade truce. Beijing seems to have little incentive to meet even short-term U.S. purchase goals.

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🇺🇸 Iowa Farmland Controversy
Iowa Auditor and gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand is backing a plan to raise taxes on out-of-state property owners — including farmland. Sand argues it would help make land more affordable for Iowans and preserve state culture.
👉 Iowa State University’s 2022 data shows half of Iowa farmland is owned by non-farmers, and a quarter of 2022 land sales were investment-driven. Two of the top 10 landowners in Iowa are based out of state.

🌱 Market Update
Soybeans led Monday’s rally—Jan 26, up 13¢ to $11.30/bu—as optimism grows that the government shutdown may end and exports to China may pick up.
Corn gained nearly 3¢ to $4.30, and Chicago wheat rose 8¢ to $5.36.
📊 Traders are eyeing possible yield cuts in Friday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports.

🚢 Export Inspections
USDA data showed 1.1mmt of soybeans inspected for export last week—up 11% from the prior week but down 54% from last year.
🇨🇳 China was absent from the market.
Corn: 1.4mmt (strong vs. last year)
Wheat: 290kmt (weaker week-over-week)

🥩 Tyson Foods Outlook
Tyson Foods expects 2026 profits to hold steady despite ongoing beef segment losses from high cattle prices.
🐄 The US cow herd is at a 70-year low, and rebuilding may take until 2028.
🍗 Stronger demand for chicken and processed products is helping offset beef weakness.
President Trump recently urged the DOJ to investigate major packers — including Tyson — over alleged price manipulation.

🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & Planting
Brazil’s soybean planting reached 61%, up 14% from the week prior but behind last year’s 67%.
🌦️ Irregular rainfall continues to slow progress.
Corn planting is 72% complete, in line with 2024.

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✅ Today’s Focus: Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Dividend & Inflation Risks

📊 💰 Economic & Policy Updates
President Trump announced plans for a $2,000 “tariff dividend” to most Americans. He said the payout would exclude high-income earners and be funded by tariff revenue, which he also pledged to use toward the $37 trillion national debt. Any such payments would likely need congressional approval.
Scott Bessent later clarified that support could come in other forms, such as tax cuts. Meanwhile, Trump’s team is pushing for a 50-year fixed-rate mortgage program, both moves viewed as potentially inflationary.

🥩 🐄 Meatpackers Under Fire
Trump accused major meatpacking companies of manipulating beef prices and urged the Justice Department to investigate. Beef prices remain high as the US cattle herd sits at its smallest size in 74 years. The Meat Institute defended the industry, citing transparency and oversight, while USDA data shows packers facing steep losses expected to continue into next year.

🍔 🏢 Texas Roadhouse Outlook
Texas Roadhouse expects commodity costs to rise 6% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, driven by higher beef prices. Commodity inflation reached 7.9% in Q3, but the chain offset pressure through 1.7% menu price hikes and strong customer traffic. Same-store sales rose 6.1%, beating forecasts.

🌏 🇨🇳 China Trade Developments
China will reinstate soybean import licenses for CHS, Louis Dreyfus, and EGT on Nov. 10, easing tensions after a recent Trump–Xi trade truce. The move follows tariff cuts and limited US grain purchases. Still, traders remain cautious about China’s follow-through on purchase commitments.

🌾 📈 Fund Position Estimates
Private data (amid the government shutdown) suggest:
Corn: net short 40–60K
Soybeans: net long 100–150K
SRW Wheat: net short 50–80K
Funds were net buyers of 7K soybean contracts last week and ended the week flat in corn. The Senate moved closer to ending the shutdown after a bipartisan vote on Sunday.

⛽ 🧪 Biofuel Waiver Rulings
The EPA granted biofuel blending exemptions to HF Sinclair and Phillips 66, while Chevron was denied. The waivers apply to blending obligations from 2021–2023 and were issued for economic hardship. Biofuel producers warned the move could undermine renewable fuel demand and add market uncertainty.

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🌱 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!
Today’s update dives into a sharp selloff in soybeans, trade developments with China, and a closer look at shifting global dynamics affecting U.S. ag markets.

🌾 Soybean Market Drop
Soybean futures plunged Thursday, with the Jan26 contract down nearly 27¢ to around $11.08/bu. The slide followed China’s limited U.S. soybean purchases, despite last week’s trade truce. China suspended certain retaliatory tariffs but kept a 13% duty on soybeans. Wheat also fell sharply, while corn saw modest losses. 📉

🇨🇳 China Trade Update
COFCO hosted a soybean procurement signing ceremony in Shanghai — but details remain vague. The U.S. claims China agreed to buy 12 MMT by January and 25 MMT annually thereafter, yet China hasn’t confirmed those volumes. Traders are growing skeptical after repeated “confirmations” without firm numbers.

⚖️ SCOTUS & Trump’s Tariffs
The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are constitutional. Justices questioned if the IEEPA law gives authority to impose tariffs — it doesn’t mention “tariff” or “duty.” A ruling against Trump could partially invalidate some tariffs, though he may pivot to the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 or the Trade Act of 1974.

🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Progress
Soybean planting in Argentina is off to a strong start 🌦️. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 4.4% planted (of 43 M acres) and projects a 48.5 MMT crop. Corn planting is 36% complete, with 58 MMT expected. Late frosts caused minor damage in southern areas.

🌧️ US Drought Monitor
Recent rains improved drought in KY, OH, and parts of IL, IN, and MO. Conditions worsened slightly in MN and IA.

Corn: 30%
Soybeans: 32%
Winter Wheat: 38%
Spring Wheat: 17%
Cattle: 26%

💼 Jobs & Markets

Private data showed 153,074 job cuts last month—triple Oct 2024’s figure. Tech and warehousing led the declines. The Nasdaq fell 1.9%, the S&P 500 –1.1%, and the Dow –0.8%. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.09%, and traders now price a greater 60% chance of a December Fed rate cut.
(⚠️ Note: These job numbers are private data; BLS data remains paused amid the government shutdown.)

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Welcome back! Here’s what’s moving the markets this week 👇

🌾 China Steps Back Into U.S. Grain Markets
Reuters reports China purchased two cargoes of U.S. wheat — one soft white and one spring wheat — plus at least one shipment of U.S. sorghum. Futures for SRW and HRW hit fresh 3-month highs on the news.

💼 Tariff Rollbacks from Beijing
China’s Finance Ministry says retaliatory tariffs (up to 15%) on U.S. ag products will be lifted November 10.
That includes corn, wheat, and sorghum, though U.S. soybeans still face a 13% import tax, keeping them pricier than Brazilian supplies. Traders say major Chinese buyers are showing new interest in U.S. wheat.

🌽 Corn Harvest & Yields
Corn yields are mixed across the Corn Belt—strong in Minnesota and South Dakota but lower in Illinois and Iowa.
Wyffels Hybrids averaged 241 bpa across 724 plots (vs. 247 last year).
Many still expect near-record crops, but yield chatter is closer to 178–179 bpa, well below USDA’s 186.7 bpa.

🍶 Ethanol Sets a New Record
U.S. ethanol output hit 1.12 million barrels/day, the highest ever.
Stocks: 22.66 million barrels
Margins: +15 ¢ to +35 ¢ across the Corn Belt (Reuters data)
Strong corn grind and robust demand continue to support prices.

🌱 Brazil’s Fertilizer Gamble
Brazil Potash Corp. is investing $2.5 billion in an Amazon potash mine, aiming for self-sufficiency by 2030.
Currently 90% of fertilizer imports come from Russia — a huge risk.
Chinese investors are reportedly eyeing future supply deals tied to crop exports.

🐄 Cattle Market Meltdown
Cattle futures collapsed to limit-down levels Wednesday.
Despite Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirming the U.S.–Mexico border remains closed to feeder imports, her mention that Trump wants to reopen it added to panic.
Even with strong fundamentals — record-low cow herd, solid beef demand — government price-control talk has shattered trader confidence.

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💰 Farm Aid Update
The Trump administration still plans to deliver additional farm aid once the shutdown ends—reportedly up to $12B to offset trade-war impacts. USDA Deputy Secretary Vaden says the final total could shift depending on the China-deal market response, but the aid won’t be replaced by the truce framework.
This program would look a lot like Trump's first-term MFP rollout.
Meanwhile, inflation remains a thorn in the side of producers. And betting markets think the shutdown wraps late next week.

🏭 ADM Outlook Cut
ADM just trimmed its 2025 profit outlook. Weak soybean crush, soft ethanol margins, and China trade uncertainty are dragging earnings.
CEO Juan Luciano says markets need clearer China trade policy + biofuel rules—both delayed by the shutdown.
ADM's Q3 profit fell ~19%.

💵 King Dollar Flexes
Risk-off vibes Tuesday pushed the dollar higher—four-month highs vs. the euro. Markets are suddenly less confident in a December rate cut (65% vs. 94% last week). Stocks slipped, safe havens bid.

🌽🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds
The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer up to 129 in October.
Livestock still outshines crops—cattle profits remain massive.
58% say tariffs will strengthen US ag, while uncertainty lingers for others.
Importantly, this data came before the US-China “trade truce” news.
📊 Barometer graphics below.

🐂 Mexican Cattle Border Still Closed
Sec. Brooke Rollins says not yet on reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle.
Screwworm containment is improving, but the USDA is still cautious—price pressure in beef is not part of the decision, per Rollins.

📏 S&P Global Crop Estimates
S&P holding steady:
🌽 Corn yield ~185.5 bpa, crop ~16.8B bu
🌱 Soybeans ~53 bpa, crop ~4.26B bu