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Corn futures moved higher for a second straight session on Thursday. The Mar26 contract settled near $4.45, supported by strong export demand.
Accumulated US corn sales through the end of November are running well ahead of last year.
Wheat futures finished higher on short covering but remain near two-month lows.
Soybean futures continued to slide, pressured by uncertainty around Chinese buying.
There was chatter of possible Chinese purchases of US corn out of the PNW (several cargoes). A USDA flash sale today or Monday would confirm the business.

🥩 Beef Prices
Beef prices remain near record highs.
Ground beef prices jumped again in November, now well above last year’s levels.
Steak prices have also climbed sharply, depending on the cut.
The biggest driver continues to be the smallest US cowherd in more than 70 years, paired with strong consumer demand.
The Trump administration recently removed tariffs on Brazilian beef imports and called for a price-fixing investigation into the major packers.
Despite higher projected beef imports, prices are expected to stay elevated.

🌱 USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.
A large volume of soybeans has now been sold to unknown destinations this year, with speculation that China accounts for roughly half.

📦 Export Sales Report
Corn export sales were strong again, with Japan leading buyers.
Soybean sales slowed from the prior week, though China was the top buyer.
Wheat sales increased week over week, with Bangladesh leading purchases.

📉 Inflation Update
CPI eased in November, coming in below expectations.
Food and energy prices were key contributors to slower inflation.
The data was collected later than usual due to the government shutdown, raising questions about accuracy.
There’s concern inflation could reaccelerate in December.

🌧️ Drought Monitor
Scattered precipitation improved drought conditions in parts of Iowa and Ohio.
Drought worsened in portions of Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri.
Conditions across the High Plains were mostly unchanged.
US Areas Experiencing Drought
Corn: 32%
Soybeans: 33%
Winter Wheat: 36%
Spring Wheat: 16%
Cattle: 27%

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🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On?
Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week.

Official USDA data still shows less than 4mmt of confirmed soybean sales to China so far this marketing year. Flash sales to China over the last 10 days total just 1.2mmt. Meanwhile, roughly 3mmt of US soybeans have been sold to unknown destinations, with the market widely believing China accounts for about half of that volume.

📊 USDA Flash Sales Recap
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:
Soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 delivery
Additional soybeans sold to unknown destinations
Corn sold to Mexico
A cancellation of white wheat to China, originally reported in November
This mix of sales and cancellations continues to add noise to the market.

🌾 Grain Futures – Wheat Weighs on the Complex
Chicago wheat futures fell for a fourth straight session, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months as global supplies remain ample and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue.
Despite the China buying headlines, soybean futures also declined for a fourth straight day. Corn was the lone bright spot, posting modest gains, though wheat weakness limited upside.

⚠️ Russia / Ukraine – Export Disruptions Escalate
Russia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure in southern Ukraine, forcing temporary shutdowns at several grain terminals.
Ukraine has shipped just 36% of its contracted wheat exports for the month so far. Rail infrastructure feeding ports has also been targeted, contributing to a sharp year-over-year decline in wheat exports this marketing year.

💰 Fund Positioning – CFTC Catch-Up Report
The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. Large money managers were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.
The soybean fund long remains one of the largest on record, keeping downside risk elevated if sentiment shifts. The CFTC expects to be fully current by the end of December.

⛽ Ethanol – New All-Time Production High
US ethanol production surged to a new record, while ethanol stocks declined. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins have strengthened, now running modestly positive across much of the Corn Belt.

📌 Bottom Line
China appears to be buying more US soybeans than official data suggests—yet futures keep falling. We’ll explain why the market doesn’t care (yet) and what actually needs to change to stabilize prices.

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🏥 ACA Health Insurance & Farmers
Enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act are scheduled to expire in 2026, which could lead to huge increases in health insurance premiums.
Farmers, ranchers, and other self-employed individuals are especially exposed since they don’t have employer-sponsored coverage.
Some families could see premiums jump by more than $20,000 per year. Affordable ACA plans have played a key role in supporting rural economies. Without them, more families may be forced into off-farm work, and rural hospitals could feel added financial strain.
As an alternative, 13 state Farm Bureaus now offer non-ACA-compliant health plans that are significantly cheaper. This issue impacts nearly every business owner and self-employed worker—and could weigh on the broader economy as disposable income shrinks.

🌱 Grain Markets
Soybean futures continued lower on Tuesday. The Jan26 contract fell 9 cents, settling near $10.63, as traders unwound long positions amid weak US export demand and expectations for a massive Brazilian crop.
Corn and wheat also finished lower. Despite solid export demand, Mar26 corn slipped about 3 cents to close near $4.37.
Chicago wheat was pressured by ample global supplies, with March futures down roughly 11 cents near $5.10.

🇨🇳 China & Soybeans
China’s state stockpiler Sinograin auctioned roughly 323,000mt of imported soybeans, about 63% of the total offered, to make room for incoming US supplies.
Another auction later this week will offer 550,000mt, and traders expect around 4mmt to be sold in this auction cycle.
The move comes despite ample domestic inventories, as Beijing has pledged to increase purchases of US soybeans.

👷 US Labor Market
The labor market remains sluggish. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, following a sharp 105,000 decline in October, the largest drop since 2020.
Much of the weakness was tied to falling federal employment during the shutdown.
The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, reflecting softer hiring and higher labor force participation.
Part-time employment for economic reasons and long-term unemployment also increased.

🛢️ Oil & Energy
Oil prices tumbled Tuesday. WTI crude fell 2.7% to $55.27, the lowest level since February 2021.
The drop was driven by ample global supplies, rising OPEC+ production, strong US output, and growing optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.
Lower crude prices have pushed US gasoline prices below $3 per gallon, the cheapest level in nearly five years.

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🌱 NOPA Soybean Crush
NOPA released its November crush report on Monday
US soybean crush hit an all-time November record
Crush was lower than October’s record, but well above last year
End-of-month soybean oil stocks jumped sharply, reaching a 7-month high
Oil stocks also came in above trade expectations

📉 Soybean Futures Pressure
Soybean futures extended losses on Monday
The Jan26 contract settled near $10.72
Market pressure continues from:
Slow Chinese buying
Expectations of a massive Brazilian crop hitting export channels
A near-record speculative long position that leaves the market vulnerable to liquidation

🚢 Export Inspections Update
US soybean inspections disappointed last week
Shipments were well below last year’s pace
About one-quarter of soybeans were headed to China
Corn and wheat inspections were near the high end of expectations
Northern Plains soybean basis remains weak due to limited PNW movement

🧪 Fertilizer Market News
The US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash over the weekend
US fertilizer stocks fell sharply on Monday in response
Belarus still faces logistical hurdles, limiting near-term impact
Belarus accounts for only a small share of US potash supply
Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian fertilizer remains the much bigger market risk

📦 USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported additional flash sales on Monday
Soybeans sold to China for next marketing year delivery
Corn sold to unknown destinations

📑 Export Sales Report (Catch-Up Edition)
USDA released another outdated export sales report
Soybean sales were strong, led almost entirely by China
Corn sales slipped from the prior week
Wheat sales landed near the low end of expectations

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🌱 Soybean, Corn & Wheat Markets
Soybean futures plunged on Friday, with the Jan ’26 contract falling nearly 17 cents to around $10.77 — the lowest level since late October. The pressure came from slowing U.S. export demand as the seasonal export window closes and growing expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Brazilian soybeans are expected to hit the export market by mid- to late January and will likely be priced at a discount to U.S. supplies, adding further downside risk. Corn and wheat futures also finished the day lower.

📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT)
The CFTC released another outdated, catch-up COT report. As of November 18, large money managers were net buyers across the grain complex. Funds were heavily long soybeans, sitting just shy of an all-time record. Notably, this was the exact time the soybean market peaked. Private estimates during the government shutdown significantly underestimated fund length, making this information largely useless from a grain marketing standpoint in real time.

🚢 USDA Flash Sales & China Watch
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday, including soybeans sold to China, soybean meal sold to Mexico, and corn sold to unknown destinations. Officially, China has purchased just over 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the current marketing year. However, trade chatter suggests actual purchases could be much larger due to sales listed as “unknown” and potential non-reportable purchases during the shutdown. Some analysts estimate total Chinese buying could be materially higher.

🏗️ Hedge Funds Move Into Physical Commodities
Hedge funds and trading firms are increasingly investing directly in physical commodities like pipelines, storage, power generation, and energy infrastructure. The goal is to gain better data, market insight, and diversification during volatile years. While this can create new profit opportunities, it also puts hedge funds in direct competition with major global trading houses.

⛽ 2026 Biofuel Quotas Delayed
The EPA is expected to delay finalizing 2026 biofuel quotas until next year. The agency is still reviewing public comments and plans additional stakeholder meetings. The decision could become part of a broader negotiation between oil and agricultural interests. While higher biofuel mandates could help farmers, expectations remain muted, with year-round E15 already largely conceded. A mandated E15 requirement would be the only real surprise.

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🌱 Fertilizer Markets

Fertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia.
While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions.
Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production.
Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers.
For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery.
Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costs
Potash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costs
Last month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP.

🌎 Export Flash Sales
Soybeans:
264,000 mt to China (25/26)
266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)
Corn:
186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)

📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)
Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectations
Mexico was the top buyer
Soybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-week
Germany was the largest buyer
Small China cancellation
Wheat: Sales beat expectations sharply
Unknown destinations led buying

🇧🇷 South America Update
Conab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmt
Still a record crop if realized
The cut reflects dry November weather and some replanting
About 90% planted as of early December
First exportable supplies expected early January
Total exports estimated at 112 mmt

🌦️ US Drought Monitor
Corn Belt saw cold temps, with most moisture falling as snow
Drought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and IN
High Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma
Areas Experiencing Drought:
🌽 Corn: 31%
🌱 Soybeans: 31%
🌾 Winter Wheat: 34%
🌾 Spring Wheat: 16%
🐄 Cattle: 25%

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🏦 Fed Cuts Rates for the Third Straight Meeting
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates another quarter point on Wednesday, bringing the fed funds rate down to 3.5%–3.75%, the lowest since September 2022. Three FOMC members dissented — the most pushback since 2019 — signaling deep concern about the path forward.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the goal is to steady the labor market while keeping inflation moving toward the 2% target. The Fed’s new projections show just one cut in 2026 and another in 2027, far fewer than markets expected.
Some economists warn that stagflation is becoming a real risk — inflation that stays too high while job growth weakens.
👉 Prices keep rising while the economy slows, family budgets get squeezed, and fixing one problem risks worsening the other.

🌱 Soybeans Rebound on Flash Sales
Soybean futures stabilized after multi-week lows. Jan26 beans +4¢, settling near $10.91 after USDA announced a 5 mil bu sale to China and 12 mil bu to unknown destinations. Gains were limited by ongoing confusion regarding China’s schedule for buying the agreed 12mmt of U.S. soybeans.
Corn and wheat moved lower:
• Mar26 corn −4¢ → ~$4.44
• Mar Chicago wheat −5¢ → ~$5.30

🚢 Fresh Flash Sales Reported Wednesday
USDA confirmed new export activity for 2025/26 delivery:
• 136,000mt soybeans → China (~5 mil bu)
• 331,000mt soybeans → Unknown (~12 mil bu)
• 120,000mt soybean cake & meal → Poland

🌾 Trump Administration Rolls Out $700M Regenerative Ag Pilot
The White House announced a $700 million program under “Make America Healthy Again” to expand practices like cover crops, no-till, conservation planning, and whole-farm soil & water management.
Farmers will apply through EQIP or CSP, with an emphasis on soil health, water quality, and habitat.
📝 Payment rates have not yet been released.

⚓ Ukraine Hits Russia’s Shadow Fleet Again
Ukraine used Sea Baby drones to attack a large Suezmax tanker tied to Russia’s oil trade. The empty vessel (1 million-barrel capacity) suffered major damage.
As these attacks continue:
• Freight costs are expected to rise
• Crews are increasingly wary of Black Sea movements
• Putin warned he may retaliate against vessels controlled by Ukraine’s allies
• He also suggested Russia could cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea entirely

⛽ US Ethanol Production Slips
Weekly ethanol output fell to 1.11 million bpd (−1.9% vs. last week, +3% vs. last year).
Stocks declined to 22.51 million barrels, slightly lower week-over-week and −2.1% versus last year.
Margins have weakened: Reuters estimates break-even to +30¢ across the Corn Belt based on spot corn, DDGs, inputs, and product values.

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🇨🇳 Soybean Purchase Deadline Confusion
Questions remain over China’s commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. On Tuesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the deadline isn’t year-end but “end of the growing season.” Nobody seems to agree on what that actually means. The White House fact sheet indicated the end of 2025, while Greer insists there’s a discrepancy in the published deadline vs. the real one.
So far this marketing year, China has purchased only 3mmt of US soybeans. The CNBC article we’re referencing is… interesting. Greer, Bessent, and former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber all seem to have different interpretations of the deadline.

📊 USDA Report—Soybeans Weak, Corn Strong
Tuesday’s WASDE didn’t bring many surprises.
• Soybean exports unchanged at 1.64B bu—a 13-year low
• Ending stocks unchanged at 290M bu
• Exports currently running ~40% below last year → further cuts likely
Corn was the bright spot:
• Record 3.2B bu corn export forecast
• Ending stocks trimmed to 2.03B bu, lower than trade expected

🚜 Deere Responds on High Machinery Costs
After President Trump’s call for lower tractor prices, John Deere says it is helping farmers cut costs—not by lowering sticker prices, but through automation that reduces labor and chemical use.
Equipment inflation has been driven by:
• Post-COVID manufacturing inflation
• Tech advancements
• Steel & aluminum tariffs

🐄 USDA Cuts 2026 Fat Cattle Price Forecast
• New forecast: $235/cwt—down 4.5% from November
• Still 5% above the 2025 projection
USDA cited reduced packing capacity as the driver.
Tyson is closing its Lexington, NE, beef plant and cutting the second shift at Amarillo.
US beef imports for 2026 are now forecast at a record 5.45M lbs, supported by tariff relief on major suppliers like Brazil.

🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Grain Export Taxes
Permanent tax cuts are coming soon:
• Soybeans 24% → 22%
• Soymeal/soyoil 24.5% → 22.5%
• Corn 9.5% → 8.5%
• Wheat 9.5% → 7.5%
Milei’s government frames this as a step toward fully eliminating export tariffs.

🥈 Silver Breaks Record High
Spot silver rallied ~4% Tuesday to $60.50/oz 📈
Drivers include:
• Expected Fed rate cuts today
• Newly added to US critical minerals list → tariff & supply concerns
• Weaker dollar + geopolitical safe-haven flows
Silver is now up ~110% YTD, beating gold and platinum.

📑 CFTC Data Catch-Up Accelerated
Commitments of Traders Reports will be current by the end of December, not late January.
Expect fast-tracked report releases over the next several weeks.