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🍭 Sugar, Diet Guidelines & Corn Demand

The Trump administration is expected to advise Americans to cut back on sugar consumption under the new Dietary Guidelines set for release later this week. Americans—especially children—will be encouraged to consume no more than 10 grams of added sugar per meal. The guidelines are also expected to push lower consumption of highly processed foods and encourage higher daily protein intake.

The existing recommendation limiting saturated fat to no more than 10% of daily calories is expected to remain unchanged. One challenge could be implementation in schools, as many cafeterias aren’t equipped to prepare meals from scratch.

Corn plays a major role here. In 2023, added sugars—including high-fructose corn syrup and glucose/dextrose—accounted for roughly 770 million bushels of corn demand, or about 5.3% of total U.S. corn usage.

🌱 China Buys U.S. Soybeans

USDA reported a soybean flash sale on Tuesday, with exporters selling 336,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.

According to traders, China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased roughly 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mt (22 million bushels) for shipment between March and May. Estimates suggest China’s total U.S. purchases are now nearing 10 mmt, representing more than 80% of the reported 12 mmt purchase agreement.

Additional flash sales may be reported today given ongoing trade chatter.

🚢 Brazil Export Update

Brazil’s soybean exports hit a record high in 2025, according to shipping agency Cargonave. Shipments rose 11.7% year over year to 108.68 mmt, driven by a record harvest and surging Chinese demand.

Soybean meal exports also reached a record 23.1 mmt, while corn exports totaled 41.7 mmt, up nearly 11% from last year. Brazil is once again projected to produce a record soybean crop in the coming season.

🚜 Farmer Sentiment Slips

U.S. farmer sentiment declined modestly in December. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 136, down slightly from November. The drop was driven by weaker long-term expectations, while near-term sentiment held steadier.

Trade policy remains a major concern. Nearly one-fifth of farmers said they’re uncertain how tariffs will affect the ag economy long-term. Competition from Brazil continues to weigh heavily on soybean outlooks. Still, three-quarters of respondents believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction—the highest reading since the question was introduced.

📈 Stocks, Oil & Venezuela

U.S. equity markets rallied Tuesday despite geopolitical uncertainty. The Dow Jones climbed to a new record above 49,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record highs.

Markets appear to view recent U.S.–Venezuela developments as modestly bullish for oil supply. Late Tuesday, President Trump announced Venezuela would turn over 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. In response, WTI crude fell to $56.25 per barrel.

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🌎 Geopolitics & Oil
The U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro could significantly complicate **China’s oil and investment ties with Venezuela.

For years, China has been Venezuela’s largest oil buyer and creditor. While Venezuelan crude made up just about 4% of China’s total oil imports last year, it has played an important role in diversifying China’s energy supply.

President Trump’s push to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry is expected to weaken China’s influence in the region, introduce financial risks for Chinese banks, and force Beijing to reassess its broader Latin America strategy.

Through 2015, China extended more than $60 billion in oil-backed loans to Venezuela for infrastructure and energy projects. Roughly 20% of those loans are believed to be unpaid—raising major questions about repayment now that Maduro is out of power.

We’ve seen similar U.S. responses before when foreign powers got “too close to home,” including:
Cuba / Soviet Union (1962)
Grenada / Soviet Union (1983)
Panama / Noriega (1989)

🚢 Export Inspections
USDA reported stronger soybean inspections last week.
Soybeans: 980,518 mt
Up from the prior week
Down vs. last year
China accounted for roughly 40%

Corn: 1.2 mmt
Lower vs. last week
Strongly higher vs. last year

Wheat: 183,305 mt
Below expectations
Sharply lower week-over-week and year-over-year

Marketing-year-to-date shipments:
Soybeans: sharply behind last year
Corn: well ahead
Wheat: modestly higher

📊 Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)
USDA released its final catch-up export sales report for the week ending December 25.
Soybeans: Solid weekly sales, with China the top buyer
Corn: Toward the low end of expectations, led by Mexico
Wheat: Below expectations, with Colombia the top destination

🌱 Brazil Crop Update
StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly to a record 177.6 mmt, citing excellent December growing conditions and strong yields in Mato Grosso.
Conab: 177.6 mmt
USDA: 175 mmt
Based on current USDA estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop is more than 50% larger than the U.S. crop this season.
Weather outlook from World Weather suggests generally favorable conditions, though parts of southern Argentina will need closer monitoring due to expected drying.

💰 Fund Positioning
The CFTC is now fully caught up on Commitment of Traders data.
Funds continued selling corn and soybeans
Soybean fund length has dropped sharply since mid-November
Small net buying was seen in SRW wheat

🥇 Metals & Macro
Gold and silver surged amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Prices jumped following Maduro’s removal and comments from President Trump that the U.S. will now control Venezuela, including access to its oil reserves. Tensions also escalated after Trump reiterated his interest in Greenland, prompting sharp pushback from Denmark, which warned such a move would effectively end NATO.

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🌍 Geopolitics & Energy
The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife over the weekend. Both have been indicted on multiple charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine trafficking, and weapons offenses. Maduro is now being held in a federal prison in New York and is expected to make his first court appearance today in Manhattan.
The unprecedented military intervention drew condemnation from Russia and China, while Argentina expressed support. President Trump said the move was necessary to address drug trafficking and what he described as “stolen oil,” adding that the US will be strongly involved in Venezuela’s oil industry going forward.
Crude oil futures fell on last night’s open but are trading near unchanged this morning. The bigger selloff was in natural gas, which is down more than 2.5% early today. Venezuela holds the largest crude oil reserves in the world, though accessing them will take years and massive capital investment. The country also has large natural gas reserves, which could be easier to develop.

🚜 Farm Aid Update
USDA announced payment rates under the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program on New Year’s Eve. The agency will distribute $12 billion total, with $11 billion allocated to one-time payments for row crops and $1 billion directed to specialty crops and sugar.

Payment rates:
Corn: $44.36 per acre
Soybeans: $30.88 per acre
Wheat: $39.35 per acre

Payments are based on 2025 planted acres. Second crop acres are eligible, while prevent plant acres are excluded. Farmers are expected to receive payments by the end of February. See graphics below. Click HERE and HERE for USDA links.

🌱 Grain Markets & Weather
Soybean futures fell on Friday, with the Mar26 contract down nearly 10 cents before recovering. China’s purchase program now appears to be a mostly “known” factor for the current marketing year, with expectations that China will reach the 12mmt US purchase target over the next couple of months.
Brazil’s forecast turns slightly drier early this week, while southern Argentina remains dry for at least another week.

🐄 Livestock
Mexico reported new cases of New World screwworm last week, including a goat in central Mexico and a calf in Tamaulipas near the US border. No additional animals tested positive at either site.
The news sent live and feeder cattle futures sharply higher. The US–Mexico border is expected to remain closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports for the foreseeable future. Since November 2024, authorities have recorded over 13,000 cases, with several hundred currently active.

⛽ Ethanol
US ethanol production rose to a weekly high last week at 1.12 million barrels per day. Output was higher week-over-week and year-over-year. Ethanol stocks increased slightly but remain below last year’s levels.
According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain positive across the Corn Belt, ranging from roughly 5 to 25 cents per gallon.

🚢 Export Sales
USDA released another delayed export sales report:
Soybean sales missed expectations and were sharply lower week-over-week, with China accounting for most of the total
Corn sales exceeded expectations, led by Mexico
Wheat sales came in near the low end of expectations

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🌏 China Grain & Soybean Strategy Update
China is pushing to reduce its reliance on grain and soybean imports in the name of food security. State media says Beijing plans to boost domestic grain and oilseed production through better seed quality, upgraded machinery, and more advanced farming practices. Trade tensions with the U.S. have accelerated this shift toward ag self-sufficiency. China also plans to support farm incomes, protect migrant worker employment, and extend rural land-use contracts by an additional 30 years after 2027.
China’s grain production hit a record high this year, rising 1.2% to 714.9mmt. Corn and wheat self-sufficiency looks achievable, but soybeans remain a much tougher challenge.

📉 Grain & Oilseed Market Recap
Soybean futures edged lower Tuesday, with the Mar26 contract slipping about a penny to settle near $10.62. This came despite China returning to the U.S. market with a soybean flash sale, as expectations for a record Brazilian crop continued to pressure prices. Corn futures moved lower on South American crop optimism, while wheat futures also finished lower amid hopes for progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and expectations for a record Argentine wheat harvest.

🌧️ South American Weather Update
Brazilian weather continues to support ideas of a large soybean crop. According to CropProphet data, Brazilian soybean areas received 106% of normal rainfall over the last 14 days (production-weighted). Forecasts remain favorable, with near-normal rainfall expected in both the 1–7 and 8–14 day periods, though amounts will vary.
Argentina is a different story, with very little rain expected over the next week. Euro model guidance suggests rainfall returns to normal in the 8–14 day window, with rains likely returning to corn and soybean areas around Tuesday next week. Some southern regions may wait longer.

🌾 Argentina Crop Update
Argentina’s wheat crop is now projected at a record 27.8mmt, up from 27.1mmt previously, thanks to favorable weather and strong yields. About 93% of the wheat crop has been harvested. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange also reports soybean planting at 82% and corn planting at 84%. Hot and dry conditions ahead could still pose risks for corn and soybeans.

🚢 USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported soybean flash sales Tuesday:
• 136,000mt (5 mil bu) sold to China for 2025/26 delivery
• 231,000mt (8 mil bu) sold to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery

🏦 Federal Reserve & Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady near term. December meeting minutes show growing resistance to additional cuts as inflation pressures persist. Strong economic growth and consumer spending have reduced the urgency for easing, even as unemployment has ticked higher. The Fed’s dot plot now projects just one rate cut in all of 2026. Markets are pricing an 83% chance of no cut in January, with slightly higher odds for a cut in March.

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🌱 Soybean Export Inspections
US soybean shipments disappointed again last week. Export inspections came in near the low end of expectations, with shipments well below both last week and last year. China was barely present, accounting for only a small share of total inspections. On a marketing-year basis, soybean shipments continue to lag badly compared to last year.

🌽 Corn & Wheat Shipments
Corn inspections beat expectations, even though they slipped from the prior week. Compared to last year, corn shipments remain strong and well ahead on a cumulative basis. Wheat inspections also topped estimates, though they were sharply lower week-to-week and modestly below last year’s pace.

🚢 Flash Sale & Export Sales
USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to Egypt early this week. Despite that sale, total accumulated soybean sales for the marketing year remain significantly behind last year, reinforcing ongoing demand concerns.

🌎 China Shifts Away from US Ag
China continues pouring money into Latin American ports, railways, and logistics. These investments are designed to lock in cheaper, faster access to South American ag products—especially soybeans. With Chinese involvement now spread across dozens of ports, global trade flows are shifting in a way that may be extremely difficult for the US to reverse, even if trade relations improve.

📉 Grain Futures Slide
Corn futures dropped sharply on Monday amid speculation that China could release domestic grain reserves, potentially displacing corn with older wheat in feed rations. Soybeans followed lower, pressured by weak export demand and ongoing global competition. Wheat futures also finished the day in the red.

🥩 Beef Market Outlook
Beef prices could stay elevated as Brazilian cattle production slows. Brazil is entering a contraction phase as producers retain heifers, while the US cattle herd remains at its smallest level in decades. Even with lower production, Brazil is still expected to remain the world’s top beef exporter.

🪙 Silver Takes a Hit
Silver prices saw a massive one-day sell-off after Friday’s historic rally. The drop was driven by profit-taking and technical pressure rather than a fundamental shift. Despite the sharp decline, silver remains dramatically higher on the year, with volatility still front and center.

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🪙 Precious Metals

Silver prices surged last week, hitting a new all-time high above $78.50 per ounce on Friday. Silver is now up sharply this year, supported by a structural market deficit, strong industrial demand, and expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The metal is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, and some analysts believe the rally could extend into 2026 amid economic uncertainty and sticky inflation. Gold and platinum also reached record highs on Friday.

💵 US Dollar & Interest Rates

The US dollar posted its largest weekly decline in six months. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8% last week as traders looked ahead to key January jobs and inflation reports. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next month, but pricing suggests a rate cut by mid-year and another later in 2026. The dollar is now down roughly 8% on the year — on pace for its worst annual performance since 2017.
See charts below.

🌧️ South American Weather

Dry weather is expected across key Argentine corn and soybean areas over the next seven days. Large portions of Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Córdoba are forecast to receive little to no rainfall, while areas farther north may see only limited precipitation. The 8–14 day forecast calls for a return to more normal rainfall across much of Argentina. Meanwhile, mostly normal rainfall is expected across major Brazilian soybean regions during the next two weeks.

🌽 Grain Markets

Corn futures drifted lower on Friday, with the Mar26 contract slipping one cent to settle near $4.50. Thin holiday trade and a lack of fresh catalysts kept activity subdued. Soybean futures also declined, as the Jan26 contract fell nearly 5 cents to close near $10.59. Beans remain under pressure from ample global supplies and ongoing concerns about the pace of Chinese buying. Chicago wheat futures moved lower as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continued.

🌍 Geopolitics

President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Sunday to continue peace negotiations. Trump said the US and Ukraine are very close to an agreement to end the war, though key issues — including the future of the Donbas region — remain unresolved. No formal deadline was set, but Trump suggested clarity could come within weeks. Ahead of the meeting, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing the call as productive and noting Putin’s interest in helping rebuild Ukraine, including supplying low-cost energy.

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🚁 Drone Industry Shock
A new ban on Chinese-made drones is sending shockwaves through the U.S. drone industry.
On Monday, the FCC banned drones and critical components manufactured in certain foreign countries, citing national security risks. The restrictions primarily target Chinese manufacturers—including DJI, which controls an estimated 70–90% of the U.S. drone market.
The ban does not apply to drones already purchased or currently sitting in stores, though the FCC has left the door open to expanding restrictions to older models in the future.
U.S. officials have long warned that Chinese-made drones could allow data access or interference by the Chinese government. Drone pilots and ag operators warn that under the new rules, many businesses may only have a few years left.

🌽 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Edition)
USDA released another outdated, catch-up Export Sales report on Tuesday.
Soybeans: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, up sharply from the prior week
China was the top buyer, accounting for 58% of total sales
Corn: Solid sales near the high end of expectations at 1.7 mmt
Japan was the largest buyer
Wheat: Sales totaled 432,600 mt, with Mexico leading purchases
Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 5.4 mmt, though real-time estimates suggest the total could be closer to 7–8 mmt.
USDA says Export Sales reports will be fully current by January 8th.

🌱 Grain Market Update
Soybean futures edged lower Tuesday.
The Jan ’26 contract slipped slightly, as traders remain cautious about the pace of Chinese buying and the looming pressure from another record Brazilian soybean crop.
While the market often sees a year-end rally, bearish fundamentals continue to cap upside.

🇺🇸 U.S. Economy Update
The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years during the third quarter.
GDP expanded at an annualized 4.3%, beating expectations. Growth was driven mainly by strong consumer spending, along with higher exports and government spending.
Notably, analysts pointed out that rising healthcare costs accounted for a meaningful share of Q3 GDP growth.

🥇 Precious Metals Explosion
Precious metals ripped to record highs on Tuesday.
Silver surged past $70/oz
Gold climbed above $4,490/oz
Platinum and palladium also moved sharply higher
The rally has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, expectations for U.S. rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong investment demand.

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🏛️ USDA Workforce Cuts & Data Quality
The US Department of Agriculture saw a massive workforce reduction in the first half of the year. Between January and June, more than 20,000 employees left the agency—about 18% of total staff.
Most departures were tied to the Trump administration’s voluntary resignation program, which offered up to six months’ pay. Over 15,000 employees accepted the program, while roughly 2,000 resigned and about 1,300 retired.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service was hit especially hard, losing more than one-third of its workforce. DTN reported that NASS alone lost 275 employees—about 34% of staff—during the first six months of the year.
A USDA Office of Inspector General report shows that another 4,200 employees left between June and October. While USDA says it continues to hire for critical roles and refocus on a “farmer-first” mission, some recent USDA data issues are likely tied to severe understaffing.

🚢 Weekly Export Inspections
US soybean shipments were weak last week, landing near the low end of expectations. USDA reported soybean inspections at 870,199 mt, up from the prior week but sharply lower versus last year. About 44% of shipments were headed to China.
Corn shipments were strong, coming in at 1.7 mmt, well above last year. Wheat shipments also beat expectations at 627,443 mt.
Soybean shipments to China totaled 386,010 mt. Only one cargo moved through the PNW, with the rest shipped out of the Gulf.

🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop Outlook
AgRural raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180.4 mmt, well above last season and above USDA’s forecast. Crop conditions have been favorable so far, and harvest has begun in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso.
Conab is forecasting production slightly lower, but still historically large. Yield potential will depend heavily on weather in the months ahead.

🌍 Wheat Market & Black Sea Tensions
Wheat futures moved higher amid escalating Black Sea tensions. Russia increased attacks near Ukraine’s Odesa region, while Ukraine struck Russia’s port of Taman. The disruption risks pushed Chicago wheat futures higher on the session.

📢 USDA Flash Sales & Export Sales
USDA reported another flash sale of soybeans to China, with most of the volume booked for the 2025/26 marketing year.
Export sales data showed strong soybean sales, led by China, while corn and wheat sales came in lower week-to-week. The report was part of USDA’s ongoing catch-up releases.

💰 Gold & Macro Markets
Gold surged to a new record above $4,400 per ounce, supported by geopolitical risk and expectations for interest rate cuts next year. Rising global tensions and uncertainty continue to drive safe-haven demand. Silver prices also moved sharply higher.

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