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🌽 Grain Export Demand Still 🔥
USDA reported multiple flash corn sales on Thursday:
• 100,800mt to Colombia
• 392,500mt to Mexico
➡️ Both for 2025/26 MY
Corn demand remains fantastic — 🚢 exports + ⚗️ ethanol running near record pace — yet futures just can’t seem to catch a bid.

📦 “Catch-Up” Export Sales Report
Week ending Oct 30:
• Corn: 2mmt — down 📉 11% WoW (Mexico biggest buyer)
• Soybeans: 1.2mmt — down 📉 14% WoW (Unknown biggest buyer; China finally showed with 232kmt)
• Wheat: 505kmt — down slightly (Mexico biggest buyer)

🐖 China’s Pork Prices Keep Sinking
• Pork values now the lowest since 2022
• Prices -18% YTD, expected to fall further
• Weak consumer spending + slow economy
• China’s sow herd only -2.1% YoY so far
➡️ If cuts deepen → less feed demand → soybean implications

⛽ API Flips Again on E15
American Petroleum Institute now supports year-round E15 🤯
✔ Joined biofuel groups urging legislation
✔ Also pushing for limits on EPA refinery exemptions
🔊 Pete Meyer:
“Positive step but not mandatory. Stations need blender pumps + storage — not feasible in big cities.”

🌾 Canada’s Record Wheat Crop
StatsCan final crop report:
• ~40mmt wheat, 🔺11.2% YoY — new all-time record
• Beats 38.5mmt estimates
• Spring wheat the driver: 29.3mmt (+10.3% YoY)
➡️ More pressure on a wheat market already struggling — especially spring wheat vs winter wheat

🌦 Drought Monitor Update
Corn Belt: mostly steady
✔ Improvements: N. Illinois & SE Wisconsin
❌ Slight worsening: Michigan
High Plains: little change
✔ Only modest improvement in NE Kansas

US Areas in Drought:
• Corn — 30%
• Soybeans — 30%
• Winter Wheat — 35%
• Spring Wheat — 16%
• Cattle — 25%

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🚜 China Soybeans: Goalposts Moving?
China is expected to fulfill its US soybean purchase agreement… eventually. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China will meet its commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. The White House originally said by year-end, but Bessent now expects by the end of February. To date, China has purchased just 2.2mmt (~19%) of the required volume. 🤨
The White House "Fact" Sheet stated—verbatim—that China will buy at least 12mmt during the last two months of 2025… plus 25mmt annually through 2028. Now the timeline has magically shifted. Sure sounds like some goalpost-dragging.

📦 Chinese shipments of US soybeans are set to ramp up in the coming weeks:
At least 6 vessels scheduled to load from the Gulf
1 vessel already en route—the first since May
Still well behind typical purchase pace
Low Chinese demand = pressure on soybean prices
US sorghum shipments to China have also resumed for the first time since March.

🌽 Iowa Eyeing More Corn in 2026
Iowa State University’s Dennis Johnson says farmers in north-central Iowa are leaning toward more corn acres next year. Corn has been the consistent moneymaker—despite some southern rust this year—and early 2026 budgets still favor corn over beans.
He advised not to go overboard on fungicides next season… Just scout the crop.

⛽️ Ethanol Production = New Record
US output hit 1.13mil bpd last week—an all-time high.
Stocks rose to 22.51mil barrels.
But… ethanol margins have softened:
Roughly –$0.05 to +$0.25/gal depending on the plant

⚓ Black Sea Insurance Costs Explode
Ukrainian attacks on Russian-affiliated vessels have caused insurance rates to triple for ships calling at Russian ports. Escalating risks raise concerns about retaliation:
➡️ Potential Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure
➡️ Ongoing pressure on global grain trade dynamics

📉 US Jobs Market Cooldown Continues
ADP reports 32,000 private-sector job losses in November vs. +47,000 in October. Hiring has slowed sharply under tariff fallout + tighter immigration.

Monthly job growth:
62k (Jul–Sep 2025) vs 186k (same period 2024) 😬
Markets see an 87% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 10.

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🇷🇺 Black Sea Threats Push Grain Higher
Tensions escalated again this week after Russia warned it may retaliate for a recent surge in Ukrainian attacks on its tanker fleet. Vladimir Putin said Moscow could strike vessels belonging to countries that support Ukraine and even cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea if attacks continue. Several Russian-affiliated tankers have already been targeted over the last week — a notable escalation from prior sporadic incidents.
Corn and wheat futures responded quickly: Mar26 corn +5¢ to $4.50, and March Chicago wheat +6¢ to $5.41. Russia and Ukraine together are expected to account for 27% of global wheat exports and 13.5% of global corn exports this year. 🌎

🌱 China Soybean Commitment: Can They Still Do It?
Some traders still believe China can meet its 12mmt US soybean purchase pledge, but they’ve got a long way to go. State-owned importers — especially Cofco — are expected to ramp up buying in the next few weeks, including shipments destined for state reserves.
The problem? US beans are still priced at a premium versus South America, leaving little commercial incentive. To date, China has purchased only 2.25mmt — just 18.8% of its commitment. To hit the target, they’d need to buy more than 2mmt per week for the rest of the year.
There are 20 business days left in 2025, meaning China must average 487,450mt per business day to reach the White House goal. Most analysts view recent buying as short-term political optics, not a durable shift toward US supplies.

🚢 More US Soybeans Heading to China
Reuters reports at least six bulk vessels will load soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals in the next two weeks. Based on USDA flash data, China has “officially” purchased 2.2mmt so far this marketing year—but the true number could be higher due to USDA reporting delays.
These shipments likely reflect previously reported sales. China taking a small batch of US soybeans is not new information and not bullish.

💵 Bridge Payment Coming Next Week
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed Tuesday that a farm “bridge payment” will be announced next week. The program is designed to provide short-term relief while longer-term trade and assistance plans are finalized.
President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” expanded farm support, but many groups argue more is needed heading into next season. Even before the bridge payment, the US is on track to spend $40+ billion on farm payments this year—the second-highest total since 1933. 🌾

📈 Farmer Sentiment Surges
US farmer sentiment jumped sharply in November. Purdue/CME’s Ag Economy Barometer rose to 139, the highest since June, with much of the increase driven by stronger future expectations. The Future Expectations Index climbed 15 points to 144.
This was the first survey after the newly negotiated US–China trade truce, likely boosting optimism.

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Welcome back! Lawmakers are zeroed in on trade issues and a potential new farm-aid package as the year winds down. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is expected to release details this week—but many in D.C. and across farm country say it won’t be nearly enough. The American Farm Bureau notes that the rumored $12B is a fraction of the $50B+ in losses farmers have endured over the last three years. Deputy USDA Secretary Stephen Vaden added that recently negotiated trade deals could impact how much aid is ultimately distributed.

🚢 Export Inspections: Soybeans Still Dragging
Soybeans: 920,194mt (34M bu) — +14% vs last week, but -56% vs last year 😬
Corn: 1.4mmt (56M bu)—-16% vs last week, +50% vs last year 🚀
Wheat: 384,881mt (14M bu) — -20% vs last week, +29% vs last year
A small amount of sorghum headed to China. Expect more China-bound soybeans in the coming weeks.

🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Update
Private group AgRural pegs soybean planting at 89%, slightly behind last year’s 91%. Moisture issues exist in pockets, but it’s still too early to raise yield concerns.
Patria Agronegocios: 171.9mmt (+0.2%)
Conab: 177.6mmt
USDA: 175.0mmt

📈 Catch-Up Export Sales (Week Ending Oct 23)
Soybeans: 1.4mmt (53M bu), +31%, Mexico top buyer
Corn: 1.8mmt (71M bu), -36%, Mexico top buyer
Wheat: 499,800mt (18M bu), +46%, unknown destinations top buyer

🇦🇺 Massive Australian Wheat Crop Incoming
Australia’s Department of Agriculture raised its forecast to 35.6 mmt—up 5.3% and potentially the third-largest crop on record.
Timely spring rains + mild temps = big yields.
This adds to global supply pressure, with Chicago wheat recently hitting 5-year lows.
USDA expects Australia to account for 4.3% of global output this year.

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Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down export sales, flash deals, China/Brazil soybean news, ethanol margins, and record-setting Black Friday spending. 👇

📦 Weekly Export Sales (Backdated Again…)
Corn:
USDA reported 2.8mmt (111 mil bu) in net corn sales for the week ending Oct 16—well above expectations and sharply higher than last week. Mexico was the top buyer.
I continue to believe that in real time, US corn sales are running at a record pace, despite the outdated data.
Soybeans:
Net sales hit 1.1mmt (41 mil bu), up 41% from last week. The Netherlands was the top buyer.
Wheat:
Came in at 341,300mt (13 mil bu), below expectations and down 44% from last week. Colombia was the top buyer.

🚨 Flash Sales Update
USDA reported multiple flashes Friday:
• 312,000mt (11 mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 25/26
• 273,988mt (11 mil bu) of corn sold to Unknown for 25/26

Through Flash Sales alone, China has achieved 18.1% of the 12mmt pre-January purchase goal.
There are 22 business days left in 2025.
China must average 443,136mt/day to hit the White House target.

🇨🇳🇧🇷 China Suspends Some Brazilian Soybean Imports
China halted shipments from five Brazilian export facilities after detecting pesticide-treated wheat contamination. Impacted companies include Cargill, CHS, and Louis Dreyfus.
Exports from unaffected plants will continue — China still has 2,000+ approved Brazilian facilities. Similar issues earlier this year were resolved quickly.

🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins
• Production rose to 1.11 mil bpd last week (+2% WoW).
• Stocks fell to 21.97 mil barrels (-1.5% WoW).
• Both metrics are slightly stronger vs. the same week last year.
Margins remain solid:
Reuters shows Corn Belt ethanol plants earning +10¢ to +40¢ per gallon depending on local corn, DDGs, and inputs.

🛍️ Black Friday: Record Online Spending
US consumers spent $11.8B online on Black Friday (+9.1% YoY) and another $6.4B on Thanksgiving Day.
In-store traffic fell 3.6% YoY.
Despite tariff uncertainty and a softening job market, analysts still expect holiday spending to top $1T this season—with more shoppers leaning on buy-now-pay-later options.

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🇨🇳 China Steps Up US Soybean Buying
China made major purchases of US soybeans this week. Since Tuesday, Chinese buyers have booked an estimated 10–15 cargoes — roughly $300 million in value. These sales followed President Trump’s call with Xi Jinping, during which Trump urged China to accelerate purchases, and Xi largely agreed. All cargoes are slated for January shipment out of Gulf Coast and PNW ports.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that US soybean exports to China are “right on schedule.” The Trump administration claims China has agreed to buy 12mmt before Jan 1 and 25mmt annually for the next three years. China has not officially confirmed these numbers, but Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins expects confirmation in the coming weeks.

🕊️ Ukraine–Russia Peace Framework?
Multiple sources say Ukraine is ready to move forward with a US-backed peace framework. The original US proposal — once 28 points and seen as favorable to Russia — has been cut to 19 revised points after input from both sides.
Russia has not yet confirmed its position, and major terms are still unresolved. US officials will continue negotiations this week.

📊 CFTC Fund Positioning Update
CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report:
Funds sold 54k corn contracts → net short grows to 188k, the largest since early July.
Funds sold 1k soybean and 15k SRW wheat contracts.
SRW wheat net short of 111k is the biggest since mid-May.
Private estimates for yesterday’s close:
Corn: –110k
Soybeans: +120k
SRW Wheat: –65k
CFTC expects to be fully current by late January. Charts below.

🚢 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)
For the week ending Oct 9:
Corn: 1.3 mmt—down 41%
Soybeans: 785k mt—down 15%
Wheat: 613.9k mt—down 31%
Mexico was the top buyer across all three.

🎰 Online Betting Risks Are Growing
Bank of America warns that online betting and prediction markets are driving higher debt loads, especially among low-income consumers and young men.
Research shows:
Lower credit scores
Higher bankruptcy rates
More debt going to collections
Prediction markets have surged, letting people bet “yes/no” on everything from elections to sports.

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🇨🇳🚢 China to Resume Shipments of US Soybeans & Sorghum
Two Chinese vessels are scheduled to arrive at grain terminals near New Orleans this week to load US soybeans—the first such shipments since May. Another vessel is expected in Corpus Christi next week to load sorghum, marking the first sorghum shipment to China since March.
These movements follow increased Chinese purchasing after the late-October trade truce in South Korea. According to the Trump administration, China has agreed to buy 12mmt of US soybeans by January and 25mmt annually over the next three years. China has not yet officially confirmed the deal.

🌱📈 Fresh US Soybean Sales to China
China resumed buying on Monday. USDA reported:
• 123,000mt (5 million bushels) sold for 2025/26
• 1.92mmt (71 million bushels) purchased so far in November
With 25 business days left in 2025, China must average 402,440mt/day to hit the targeted 12mmt.

🚢🌎 US Export Inspections (Week Ending Nov 20)
Soybeans:
• 799,042mt (29mb)
• Down 34% vs. last week, down 62% vs. last year—still disappointing
Corn:
• 1.6mmt (64mb)
• Down 21% from last week but up 62% vs. last year
Wheat:
• 474,530mt (17mb)
• Up 92% vs. last week and up 30% vs. last year

📞🇺🇸 Trump–Xi Phone Call
President Trump says the call covered Chinese purchases of US soybeans and other ag goods. He described the trade truce as a “great deal” for US farmers. China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said all elements of the agreement are being implemented.
The two leaders agreed to meet in person—first in April in Beijing, then later in the US.

💵🚜 More Farmer Aid Expected
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says details of the long-discussed farmer assistance package will be released within the next two weeks. The Farm Bureau welcomed the update, calling aid “urgently needed.”
Rollins also indicated that China will formally confirm its soybean purchase commitments within the next few weeks.

🌧️🌽 China Corn Market: Prices Hit 2-Month High
Chinese corn futures have rallied due to:
• Excessive rains damaging crops in major northern regions
• Slow farmer selling
• Government import restrictions keeping foreign corn out
Through October, China’s corn imports totaled less than 1mmt, down 93% from last year.

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🌽 Record Wisconsin Corn Crop + Storage Crunch

Wisconsin is harvesting a record corn crop, with many farmers reporting yields 20–30 bushels above previous highs.
Grain elevators across the state are full or overflowing, forcing coops to pile millions of bushels outside on the ground.
United Cooperative near Appleton is moving grain out by rail as fast as possible.
Some farmers are turning to grain bagging because space is so tight.
Slow soybean sales are tying up even more storage as producers wait for better prices.
USDA pegs Wisconsin’s 2025 state yield at a record 183 bpa.
Other states — Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, South Dakota — also posted record yields.
Western Corn Belt basis is weak, while basis in many eastern areas is stronger than normal.

🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting Update
Consulting group Patria Agronegocios estimates Brazil’s soybean planting at 80% complete vs 83% last year.
Still ahead of the 75% five-year average.
Irregular rainfall has caused localized delays and could affect yields.
Mato Grosso is nearly done — about 98% planted.

🐂 Cattle on Feed Report — Bullish Across the Board
As of Nov 1: 11.7M head, down 2% YoY — in line with expectations.
Placements: 2.04M head → down 10% and the lowest since 1996 for October.
Marketings: 1.7M head → down 8%, matching expectations.
Market should view this as bullish, though volatility could mute reaction.
Heifer retention still shows no major herd rebuilding.

🏭 Tyson Closing Major Nebraska Beef Plant
Tyson will close one of its largest beef plants in Lexington, NE — processing 5,000 head/day.
Roughly 3,000 jobs impacted.
Amarillo, TX plant will shrink from two shifts to one, affecting ~1,700 workers.
Changes take effect by end of January.
Tyson reported $2B higher cattle costs in FY2025 vs prior year.

💵 Macroeconomy: Shutdown Cost + Bessent Outlook
The government shutdown cost the US economy $11B.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic about 2026 growth.
Says easing interest rates and tax cuts will help, and doesn’t see the broader economy at risk.
Shutdown expected to cut Q4 growth in half → now 1.5%–2% expected.