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🇺🇸🇧🇷 US vs Brazil Soybean Profitability
This week, the University of Illinois farmdoc team broke down a critical difference between US and Brazilian soybean economics. Brazil’s costs are heavily tied to direct inputs like fertilizer, while US producers face far larger overhead expenses driven by elevated farmland values. Brazilian production costs surged from 2020–2024 due to fertilizer inflation and currency weakness, yet profitability held up thanks to strong prices and export demand. US margins were far less stable, contributing to losses in multiple years.

📈 Soybean Market Update
Soybean futures pushed higher Tuesday, with strength linked to easing fears surrounding US tariff policy and China demand. The market continues to weigh the potential impact of evolving trade policy, while rumors of Chinese PNW business circulated. Traders remain cautious but attentive to any confirmation of export activity.

🌽 Corn & Wheat Trade
Corn futures were slightly lower. Chicago wheat was mostly steady as traders monitored persistent dryness across key HRW regions. Weather remains the dominant driver, with warm and windy conditions stressing parts of the Southern Plains, though rain chances loom further out.

🌦️ Weather Watch
Forecast models keep much of Kansas and surrounding wheat areas dry near-term, while temperatures run well above normal. Moisture prospects in the extended window remain a focal point for price direction.

🧪 Fertilizer & Tariff Policy
Most fertilizer imports remain exempt under the latest tariff framework. Key products like ammonia, sulfur, and sulfuric acid face minimal disruption, largely due to Canadian dominance in US import flows.

₿ Bitcoin Sentiment
Investor confidence remains fragile. A large share of supply is now underwater, reinforcing a pattern where rallies encounter selling pressure. Despite price weakness, ETF positioning suggests longer-term holders have not fully exited.

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Trade drama is back in the headlines. President Trump is threatening higher tariffs on countries that fail to honor trade agreements. Following last week’s Supreme Court ruling, the EU announced it would pause ratification of its agreement, while India is deferring talks on its own deal. Despite the legal setback, the White House says it remains committed to its trade agenda and is exploring alternative tools to implement tariffs. Markets clearly reacted to the renewed uncertainty, with stocks under pressure to start the week.

Grain markets felt the ripple effects. Soybean and wheat futures moved lower Monday as traders weighed the potential impact of trade disruptions and retaliation tied to the newly announced 15% global tariff. Corn futures, meanwhile, managed to hold steady. When policy uncertainty rises, volatility often follows — and that theme remains firmly in play.

Export data offered a few surprises. US corn shipments exceeded expectations for the third straight week, posting a very strong year-over-year gain. Wheat inspections also came in above trade guesses. Soybean shipments, however, disappointed and continue to reflect uneven demand patterns. China remained a major buyer, accounting for roughly half of weekly inspections.

USDA also reported a fresh flash sale of corn to Colombia, adding to an already solid sales pace this marketing year. Demand for US corn has been a notable bright spot recently, especially when compared to other segments of the export complex.

Weather and field conditions remain a major talking point in South America. Brazil’s soybean harvest is advancing at its slowest pace in several years, with rains and longer crop cycles creating delays. Planting progress for Brazil’s second corn crop is also lagging last year’s pace, which could become increasingly important for global feed grain supply expectations.

Outside of grains, US consumers continue to show remarkable resilience in the face of high beef prices. Despite record price levels, demand remains strong as buyers adapt by shifting toward more affordable cuts and smaller portions. The protein story remains a powerful force across the broader agricultural landscape.

As always, volatility, policy, and global production trends remain key market drivers.

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Soybean markets started the week wrestling with fresh tariff drama. The Supreme Court struck down the administration’s prior global tariffs, ruling that the use of emergency powers was unlawful. Shortly afterward, the White House announced a new blanket tariff approach, creating another wave of uncertainty across financial and commodity markets. The key question for agriculture remains unchanged: how will this impact trade flows and demand, particularly from China? Earlier signals pointed toward stronger soybean buying interest, but policy volatility continues to cloud the outlook.

Meanwhile, USDA is preparing to roll out a major round of farm assistance through the Farmer Bridge Assistance program. The application window opens today, with payments expected to move quickly. Market participants will be watching closely to see how the agency handles what could be a surge in producer enrollment. The program arrives at a time when farm margins remain under pressure and policy uncertainty is elevated.

Export demand signals were mixed in the latest weekly data. Corn demand continues to hold up relatively well despite some week-to-week variability, while soybean and wheat sales showed uneven momentum. Traders remain highly sensitive to shifts in global demand and competitiveness.

The latest Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding to positions across the grain complex, with soybeans drawing particular attention. Positioning trends remain an important driver of short-term price movement, especially in an environment dominated by macro headlines.

In livestock, the latest Cattle on Feed report landed near expectations and was generally viewed as neutral. While placements data offered some supportive elements, the overall numbers did not point to a major shift in supply outlook.

Lots to unpack this week as markets digest policy developments, demand signals, and fund activity. Stay tuned.

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Welcome back 🌾

Wheat futures pushed sharply higher on Thursday, fueled largely by short covering as traders reacted to drought and high winds across the US Southern Plains. Weather risks remain front and center, with ongoing concerns about potential crop stress in key HRW regions. There was also chatter surrounding possible issues with Ukraine’s wheat crop. Chicago and Kansas City contracts both posted solid gains. The Climate Prediction Center added another layer of support with updated seasonal outlooks calling for a warm and dry pattern across much of wheat country. While long-range forecasts always deserve some skepticism, the market clearly paid attention.

🌱 USDA Acreage & Production Outlook
USDA projects an increase in soybean acreage this season, while corn acres are expected to decline. Soybeans are viewed as offering stronger relative profitability, helping drive the shift. Despite fewer corn acres, production is still forecast to be massive. Wheat acreage is seen slipping slightly.

⛽ Ethanol Production & Margins
US ethanol production moved higher last week, and stocks also increased. Margins reportedly strengthened across much of the Corn Belt, a supportive signal for corn demand. We’ll take a look at what’s driving profitability and why this matters.

🚢 Ethanol & DDGS Trade
Ethanol exports surged to one of the highest monthly totals on record, capping off a year of very strong international demand. DDGS shipments also remained robust. Trade flows continue to play a critical role in demand dynamics.

🚜 John Deere Shares Surge
John Deere shares posted a stunning rally following earnings. The company exceeded expectations and raised its income outlook. Management commentary hinted at stabilizing farm economics and potential improvement in equipment demand.

🛢️ Crude Oil & Geopolitics
Crude oil climbed to multi-month highs amid escalating US-Iran tensions and renewed concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Energy markets remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments.

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🌽 Ag Outlook Forum – Acreage & Yield Estimates
USDA will release its first look at 2026 acreage and yield projections this morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum. Analysts expect corn acreage near 94.9 million acres with production around 15.9 billion bushels. Soybean acreage is forecast near 84.9 million acres with production pegged at 4.4 billion bushels. Wheat acreage is projected at 44.8 million acres with production near 1.9 billion bushels. These numbers often set the tone for new-crop expectations and market psychology.

🚜 NCGA Warns of Farm Financial Stress
The National Corn Growers Association released a report emphasizing mounting financial pressure across US agriculture. The group argues that many corn farmers are facing multiple years of negative margins amid rising costs and increased volatility. Long-term consolidation trends continue as productivity gains fail to consistently translate into profitability. Off-farm income remains critical for many operations. Demand growth and supportive policy remain central themes.

🌾 Wheat Strength – Weather Concerns
Kansas City wheat futures posted fresh multi-month highs overnight, with nearby contracts reaching their best levels since late summer. Comments from Ukraine’s farmers union regarding winter wheat risks following a thaw and cold snap helped support prices. Wheat continues to show relative strength compared to corn.

📊 Corn & Soybean Price Action
Soybeans briefly traded into fresh multi-month highs, while corn futures remain sluggish ahead of First Notice Day. Spreads, positioning, and technical flows are all in focus as traders manage delivery risk and roll activity.

⛽ E15 Policy Push Continues
Ag groups continue pressing for year-round nationwide E15 sales despite missed legislative deadlines. Advocates argue expanded blends would boost corn demand and potentially reduce fuel costs. Market participants continue to monitor Washington for movement.

🌧️ South American Weather Update
Recent rains improved soybean conditions in southern Brazil and brought relief to dry Argentine areas. Additional precipitation could disrupt harvest pace and second-crop corn planting. Brazilian production estimates remain historically large.

🚢 Argentina Strikes & Logistics
Labor strikes are temporarily disrupting Argentine grain shipments. While these events frequently generate headlines, they historically produce limited lasting impact on global price trends.

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🌱 Biofuel Mandates & Soybean Strength
The EPA is expected to submit its proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House for final review in the coming days. The Trump administration is working to finalize the delayed mandates by the end of March.

Earlier proposals pointed to a sizable increase in total biofuel volumes and a sharp jump in the biomass-based diesel target. While the agency is now considering a slightly revised range for biomass-based diesel, the numbers still imply substantially stronger demand compared to prior years.

Both old and new crop soybean futures pushed to multi-month highs overnight. Biofuel optimism — combined with ongoing Chinese demand optimism — continues to support prices despite the advancing Brazilian harvest.

🌽 Corn Market Pressure
Corn futures moved lower Tuesday, pressured by improving crop conditions in Argentina following recent rainfall. Weather developments in South America remain a key driver for global feed grain markets.

🌾 Wheat Faces Global Headwinds
Chicago wheat futures also weakened. Pressure stemmed from an increased Russian crop outlook and news that India will allow limited wheat exports. Seasonal demand softness tied to the Lunar New Year added additional weight to the market.

🚢 Port of Los Angeles & Soybean Flows
U.S. soybean shipments to China through the Port of Los Angeles remain extremely light. Flows through the port fell sharply last year and showed little recovery late in the year.

The Port of LA typically handles only a very small share of total U.S. soybean exports. The Gulf continues to dominate shipment volumes, followed by the Pacific Northwest. Brazilian soybeans remain competitively priced on the world market, influencing global trade flows.

📦 Export Inspections Update
U.S. corn shipments exceeded expectations for the second straight week, while soybean inspections remained strong and near the upper end of forecasts. China accounted for a significant portion of weekly soybean movement. Seasonal export patterns remain important to monitor.

🛢️ NOPA Crush & Soybean Oil Stocks
NOPA reported a record January soybean crush for the month. Processing margins and domestic demand continue to drive historically large crush volumes.

Soybean oil stocks increased sharply and now sit at their highest level in quite some time—an important factor for biofuel and vegetable oil markets moving forward.

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🌽 USDA Long-Term Projections (Out to 2035)
USDA released its annual baseline projections, and the acreage outlook immediately caught traders’ attention. The agency pegged 2026 corn acres at 95 million, sharply lower year-over-year, while soybean acres were projected at 85 million, implying a notable shift toward beans. Also raising eyebrows: USDA does not project an average farm price for corn above the mid-$4 range at any point through 2035. These projections assume “normal” conditions and are intended for planning and budgeting, but they often influence long-term sentiment.

🚜 The Future of US Farms & Ranches
A major Wall Street Journal feature highlighted a growing structural issue in American agriculture: succession. A large share of farms reportedly have no clear next-generation operator, while the producer population continues to age. Consolidation trends remain strong, with more operations being sold or leased to larger entities. Over time, this could accelerate the shift toward landlord-tenant and contract production models, reshaping rural communities and land markets.

📊 Fund Positioning – CFTC Commitment of Traders
Money managers were active buyers again. Funds added to net long positions in both corn and soybeans, with soybean length expanding to its largest level in weeks. Wheat, meanwhile, saw modest selling pressure. Changes in speculative positioning can heavily influence short-term price behavior and volatility.

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop & Planting Progress
Brazil’s soybean harvest remains slower than last year amid persistent rainfall delays. Safrinha corn planting is also trailing the prior pace. Weather-related slowdowns at this time of year often feed into global supply expectations and can influence export competition dynamics.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade & Soybean Demand Signals
Diplomatic engagement between US and Chinese officials continues ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meetings later this spring. Reports of a potential extension of the trade truce have supported optimism regarding Chinese demand for US soybeans. Markets remain sensitive to any indications of purchase targets, policy shifts, or rhetoric changes.

🔥 Energy Markets – Natural Gas Pullback
Natural gas prices have eased following a warmer weather outlook after January’s weather-driven rally. Storage deficits persist, however, providing underlying support. Energy markets can indirectly influence fertilizer, input costs, and broader commodity sentiment.

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🌱 Soybean Market Rally
Soybeans moved sharply higher following a South China Morning Post report hinting that the US–China trade truce could be extended when Trump and Xi meet in April. President Trump recently suggested China may boost US soybean purchases to 20mmt, but skepticism remains as Brazilian beans continue to dominate global offers at a discount.

🌽 Export Sales Breakdown
Corn export sales were a clear bright spot, easily beating expectations with Japan leading the charge. Soybean sales, however, slipped to a marketing-year low despite China showing up as the largest buyer. Wheat sales posted modest improvement. What does this mixed demand picture mean going forward?

🌎 South America Weather & Production
Argentina’s crops are still in a weather-critical window, with dryness raising concern about yield potential. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to stack record production, with Conab raising its soybean estimate again. Harvest is advancing — and global supply pressure is building.

🥩 Beef Industry Developments
Cargill is closing its Milwaukee processing facility, adding to the growing list of plant slowdowns and shutdowns. With the US cattle herd near historic lows, the livestock sector faces tightening dynamics that could reshape margins and price behavior.

☀️ Drought Monitor Update
Large portions of the Corn Belt saw limited precipitation, while drought conditions worsened in parts of Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas. We review what this means as the growing season approaches.

🚢 Flash Sale to Egypt
USDA reported new soybean business to Egypt. How significant is this sale in the broader demand landscape?