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0:00 USDA and Corn Rally
6:10 The Funds
8:26 US/China Talks to Resume
9:39 USDA Reporting Problems
11:12 Rare Soybean Oil Sale

🌽 USDA Shakes Up Corn & Soybeans
US corn acreage is projected to be the largest since 1936. On Friday, USDA raised its estimate by 1.5% to 98.7 million acres. Despite a lower average yield projection of 186.7 bpa, the agency still forecasts a record 16.8 billion bushel corn crop. Ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 2.1 billion bushels but remain the highest since 2018/19.

For soybeans, yield was lowered to 53.5 bpa, but acreage revisions lifted production to 4.3 billion bushels. Exports were cut due to the ongoing US–China trade war, pushing ending stocks higher. If confirmed, USDA’s corn crop estimate would beat the previous record (2023) by a massive 9.6%.

📉 Funds Add to Shorts
CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed money managers were net sellers:
Corn: -4k contracts
Soybeans: -25k contracts (largest net short since mid-August)
SRW Wheat: -10k contracts

🤝 US–China Trade Talks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Madrid. The talks aim to lay the groundwork for a deal: China purchases in exchange for tariff relief. This comes as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiration in early November. So far, China hasn’t bought a single bushel of US soybeans for the current marketing year.

🇨🇳 Export Sales Twist
Last week’s reported “sale” of 2 million bushels of soybeans to China actually dated back to January, highlighting USDA reporting issues amid budget cuts and staffing problems. For comparison, China bought 26.8 mmt ($12.6B) of US beans last season.

🛢 Soybean Oil Surprise
USDA reported a flash sale of 22,000 mt soybean oil to South Korea for 25/26 delivery—the first of the year. Flash sales of oil are rare given domestic biofuel demand.

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0:00 Building Drought
6:13 USDA Preview
9:41 Export Sales
12:21 Brazil's Crop Report
14:20 Inflation is Up

🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re covering drought updates, USDA’s big monthly reports, export sales, Brazil’s latest production numbers, and fresh inflation data. Let’s dive in 👇

🌦 Weather & Drought Monitor
USDA’s weekly drought monitor shows worsening dryness across much of the Corn Belt. Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio saw notable deterioration, while Iowa and Minnesota posted smaller declines. About 20% of the region is now in drought, up 6% from last week. North Dakota remains the most drought-free state in the country.

Corn: 13% affected
Soybeans: 22%
Winter Wheat: 38%
Spring Wheat: 13%
Cattle: 18%

📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview
USDA releases its September Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11am CST. Traders expect lower corn and soybean yields, though both are still projected at record highs.
Corn & soy yields expected to be down on dryness/disease
US ending stocks seen slightly lower
Global corn/soy stocks edging down, wheat up

🚢 Export Sales
US corn, soybean, and wheat export sales were all disappointing last week:
Corn: 539,900 mt (down 74%)—Mexico top buyer
Soybeans: 541,100 mt (down 34%)—Unknown destinations top buyer
Wheat: 305,400 mt (down 2%)—Japan top buyer

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update (Conab)
Conab raised estimates again:
Corn: record 139.7 mmt
Soybeans: record 171.5 mmt
Soy exports: 106.7 mmt, driven by China
Brazilian farmers are wrapping up safrinha harvest and starting first-crop planting.

📈 Economy & CPI
US consumer prices rose 2.9% YoY in August, the highest since January. Food led gains with meat and eggs up sharply. Trump’s tariffs may be adding to pressure. Markets expect Fed rate cuts in September, October, and possibly December.

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0:00 Intro
0:49 USDA Preview
3:38 Argentina Situation
7:22 Positive (ish) Soybean Spin
10:11 Biofuel Back and Forth
12:15 Ethanol Production

🌽 Welcome back! Big USDA Report Tomorrow 🌽

📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview
The USDA releases its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report Friday at 11am CST. Traders expect corn and soybean yield/production cuts, though both remain at record highs. Soybean exports could be trimmed again, with China still absent from the US market. Carryout projections: US corn, soybeans, and wheat are all expected to decline slightly; global wheat is seen higher. The big ticket items tomorrow are US corn and soybean yield estimates—this month USDA adds objective yield data into the mix.

🇦🇷 Argentina Outlook
Rosario Exchange pegs corn production at 61mmt, record-large if rainfall is adequate. 2024/25 outlook also boosted to 50mmt. Soybean acreage expected down 7%, with production forecast at 47mmt vs. 49.5mmt last year. Buenos Aires Exchange also sees lower acreage, down 4.3%.

🇨🇳 China’s Snub of US Soybeans
China booked 7.5mmt of October soybeans—95% from Brazil. At this time last year, they had 12–13mmt from the US. Despite US beans being cheaper, the 23% tariff adds $2/bu, keeping them uncompetitive. Analysts warn US farmers could lose 14–16mmt of soybean sales if China waits until mid-November. Still, USDA projects US exports only -9% YoY, thanks to other global buyers stepping in.

⛽ Biofuels & Policy Uncertainty
Trump’s new biofuel plan rattled the market, with concerns refiners may only face partial obligations. Senator Mike Lee’s bill adds more uncertainty. Biofuel shares (Bunge, ADM, Valero, and Green Plains) tumbled; RIN prices hit their lowest since June.

🍶 Ethanol Production & Margins
US ethanol output hit 1.1mil bpd, the strongest for this week in a decade. Stocks rose to 22.8mil barrels. Margins remain strong, anywhere from +20c to +60c across the Corn Belt, supported by low corn prices.

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0:00 Ag Economy
6:57 Soybean Hit Piece
9:58 SREs
11:15 Grain Standards Act
12:13 Cattle Selloff
14:03 BLS Data (Jobs)

💰 Ag Economy Crisis
AgWeb reports farmers nationwide are facing collapsing margins.
At a September 2 meeting in Arkansas, 400+ farmers called bailouts ineffective and skewed toward corporate players.
Monopolistic control in seed, fertilizer, and chemical markets is trapping farmers while corporations profit.
Bankruptcy risks are spiking, with 25–40% of farms in some regions projected to fail.
Leaders demand reforms: antitrust enforcement, merger freezes, lobbying limits, and greater market diversification.

🌱 Soybean Disaster
China still hasn’t purchased a single US soybean this marketing year.
Typically, China takes more than 25% of US soybean exports.
Ongoing trade tensions push China toward Brazil.
Prices are now below production costs—half a million American farmers are at risk.
Agriculture supports nearly 19% of US GDP and 1M+ jobs.
Industry leaders are calling for immediate trade resolutions.

⚡ Biofuels Battle
Senators from oil-producing states introduced the Protect Consumers from Reallocation Costs Act of 2025.
Would block the EPA from reallocating blending obligations from small refineries to larger ones.
Biofuel groups argue this rewards small refineries and weakens renewable fuel policy.
A reallocation of exemptions would be devastating to the ethanol industry.

🌾 Grain Standards Act
The House passed the US Grain Standards Reauthorization Act of 2025.
Extends the inspection and grading system through 2030.
Pushes USDA toward tech upgrades for better accuracy.
Ensures fair pricing for farmers and buyer confidence abroad.
The Senate must approve before the end of September to avoid $70M/day losses.

🥩 Cattle Market Correction
Cattle futures saw the steepest correction since June.
Feeder cattle limit down across nearly all contracts.
Driven by payroll data revisions showing a weaker consumer outlook.
Trump’s weekend comments on falling beef prices added pressure.

📉 Jobs Data Shock
BLS is expected to revise payrolls lower by 911,000 jobs.
Cuts average monthly growth nearly in half from previous reports.
Weak labor data strengthens the case for a Fed rate cut next week.
Final revisions are due early 2026.

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0:00 China Imports
5:26 Crop Progress
9:21 Brazil Planting Begins
10:57 Russia Wheat
11:54 Grain Shipments

🌎 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down key moves in global grain markets.

📊 China Soybean Demand
China ramped up soybean purchases in August, bringing in a record 12.3mmt for the month. Stockpiles now sit at 6.8mmt—the highest since March. While the US export window is just opening, China continues to rely heavily on Brazil amid the ongoing US-China trade war.

🌽 US Corn & Soy Conditions
Corn ratings slipped slightly, with 68% good/excellent vs. 69% last week, still the best since 2018. 4% of the crop is harvested vs. 3% average. Soybean ratings dipped to 64% g/e, the lowest of the year. 21% of beans are dropping leaves—a touch ahead of average.

🌾 Wheat Update
Spring wheat harvest is 85% complete, nearly in line with average. Winter wheat planting is just getting started at 5%, steady with last year.

🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Pace
AgRural reports 12% of first corn crop planted, behind last year’s 15%. Soybean planting has just begun at 0.2%. USDA projects 131mmt corn and 175mmt soybeans for Brazil this season.

🇷🇺 Russia’s Bigger Wheat Crop
Sovecon lifted its wheat estimate to 86.1mmt, matching IKAR’s latest call. Black Sea production strength continues to weigh on global wheat prices.

🚢 Export Inspections
Corn: 1.4mmt (57m bu)—up 70% vs. last year 📈
Soybeans: 452k mt (17m bu)—+24% y/y
Wheat: 425k mt (16m bu)—down sharply w/w

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0:00 Freeze
1:35 Unknown Buys Soybeans
2:43 Export Sales
8:35 Monster Corn Yield Estimate
9:56 The Funds
10:59 Job Growth Slows

🌽🌱 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down weekend weather risks, fresh export sales, and market reaction.

❄️ Weekend Freeze Event
Some US corn and soybean areas saw freezing temps early Sunday morning across North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and western Nebraska. The extent of crop damage is still unclear, but markets are shrugging it off with lackluster trade to start the week. See maps below, and please share any local details you have—past/observed weather info is much harder to pin down than forecasts!

🚢 Export Sales Update
USDA reported two Friday flash sales: 327,650mt (12mil bu) of soybeans to unknown destinations for 25/26 delivery.
Accumulated sales are down 32% YoY, with “Unknown” now 41% of all new-crop soybean export sales.
China still hasn’t booked a single bushel for 25/26. While some “Unknown” could be China, a weak Northern Plains basis suggests no major PNW program yet.
New crop corn sales hit 2.1mmt (83mil bu), near the high end of expectations. Mexico was the top buyer.
Soybean sales (818,500mt) were down 40% WoW; wheat sales (313,000mt) missed expectations, with Nigeria as the top buyer. See charts below.

🌾 Crop Estimates
S&P Global pegs yields at 189.1bpa for corn (16.77bbu) and 53.8bpa for soybeans (4.31 bbu)—record-large crops. These numbers are slightly above USDA’s latest estimates but higher than StoneX’s more cautious outlook. USDA updates its official estimates this Friday.

📊 Fund Positioning
CFTC data shows:
Funds trimmed corn shorts again, buying 16k contracts. Net short now 95k, the smallest since May.
Funds sold 8k soybean contracts and 417 SRW wheat contracts.

💼 Macro Headlines
US job growth slowed in August with just +22,000 jobs (vs. 75k expected). Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. June was revised to a loss of 13k jobs—the first monthly decline since 2020. Analysts see this soft labor market reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut next week.

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0:00 US/Japan Deal
5:17 Rollins Comments
7:53 Corn/Soybean Charts
10:37 StoneX Estimates
14:23 Drought Expands
15:53 Biofuel Imports

🇺🇸🤝🇯🇵 Trump–Japan Trade Deal
Trump signed a deal with Japan that slaps a 15% tariff on Japanese imports.
Tokyo agreed to a $550B U.S. investment fund—Trump says he can use it “however he wants,” but no details yet.
Japan also pledged $8B annually in U.S. ag purchases (corn, soybeans).
For comparison: the 2020 U.S.–China “Phase One” deal had ~$40B/year in ag buys.
🌽🌱 Ag Market Impact
Japan bought 512M bushels of U.S. corn in the 24/25 marketing year—2nd only to Mexico.
Last season: $2.8B corn and $998M soybeans from the U.S.
This new pledge could be a major boost for U.S. farmers.

📉 StoneX Crop Outlook
Corn yield cut to 186.9 bpa (down from 188.1), but acreage boost lifts production to 16.58B bu.
Soybean yield trimmed to 53.2 bpa with production lowered to 4.26B bu.
The ongoing survey methodology dates back to 1993.

🌦️ USDA Drought Update
Corn Belt drought expands slightly: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, plus parts of Iowa & Minnesota.
Current drought coverage: Corn 9%, Soybeans 16%, Winter Wheat 34%, Spring Wheat 13%, Cattle 18%.
Some relief in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota with scattered showers.

🛢️🌱 Biofuels & Policy Shift
U.S. biodiesel imports down 94%; renewable diesel imports down 85% (lowest since 2012).
Cause: the new 45Z tax credit only applies to domestic biofuels (replacing the old $1/gal blender’s credit).
Positive for U.S. soybean oil & ethanol — less foreign competition ahead.

📢 Stay Informed
Big changes are underway in trade, policy, and farm markets. Don’t miss a beat — hit subscribe and drop your thoughts in the comments!

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0:00 USDA's Dire Forecast
4:10 Trump Comments
7:06 Corn/Soybean Selloff
9:22 Polymarket and CFTC
10:59 SAF Future Looks Poor
12:20 Flash Sale

🌾 Farm Economy & Receipts
USDA projects US crop receipts to decline in 2025, led by weaker returns for soybeans, corn, and wheat. Total receipts are expected at $236.6B, down 2.5% from 2024. Meanwhile, direct government payments are set to surge 300% to $40.5B. On the livestock side, cattle receipts are forecast up nearly 16%, while hogs climb almost 10%.

🌍 Trump vs. China, Russia & North Korea
President Trump accused China of conspiring with Russia and North Korea following their high-profile military parade in Beijing. Xi, Putin, and Kim stood together at the event, but Trump downplayed the threat—reminding supporters that “China needs us more than we need them.”

📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide
Corn and soybean futures pulled back midweek after recent rallies. Dec25 corn closed at $4.18, down 5 cents, while Nov25 soybeans slipped nearly 10 cents to $10.32. Losses came despite USDA reporting weaker crop condition ratings.

💻 Crypto & Prediction Markets
Polymarket scored a major win with CFTC approval to legally operate in the US. The no-action letter exempts the platform from certain costly reporting requirements, clearing the way for more growth in prediction markets.

🛢️ Shell Cancels Biofuels Project
Shell announced it will not restart construction of its massive Rotterdam biofuels facility, citing weak demand and global oversupply. This follows similar moves by BP and even Southwest Airlines, raising questions about the future of SAF and corn ethanol’s role in aviation fuel.

🚢 Soybean Meal Flash Sale
US exporters sold 185,000mt of soybean cake & meal to the Philippines. Total flash sales for this marketing year now stand at 455,000mt.

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