• How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI)

  • Jul 23 2024
  • Duración: 1 h y 16 m
  • Podcast

How U.S. Treasury Is Fighting The Fed | Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran on Treasury’s $800 Billion of “Stealth QE” via “Activist Treasury Issuance” (ATI)

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  • Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. New paper published by Hudson Bay Capital, written by Nouriel Roubini & Stephen Miran, “ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy”: https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf Nouriel Roubini’s book discussed in the interview, “Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy”: https://www.amazon.com/Political-Cycles-Macroeconomy-Alberto-Alesina/dp/0262510944 Nouriel Roubini’s latest book, “Megathreats”: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/nouriel-roubini/megathreats/9780316284059/?lens=little-brown Follow Nouriel Roubini on Twitter https://x.com/Nouriel Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://x.com/SteveMiran Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) What Is "Activist Treasury Issuance" (ATI)? (08:00) The Mechanics Of How The U.S. Treasury Has Altered Engaged In "Activist Treasury Issuance" (20:52) VanEck Ad (24:21) Activist Treasury Issuance Played A Role In Boosting Asset Values, And In Avoiding A Recession (And Might Have Caused A "No Landing" Instead of a "Soft Landing") (29:53) History of Treasury's "Bill Share": GFC, Money Market Reform, March 2020 Panic (33:44) How Much Does Current Treasury Issuance Differ From Historical Issuance Patterns? (45:43) Permissionless Ad (46:46) Does Government Borrowing "Crowd Out" Private Investment? (59:09) Will ATI Continue In The Next Presidential Administration? (01:07:20) Long-Term Interest Rates Could Rise and Force a "Meaningful Repricing of Risk Assets" (01:10:49) It's Not Just The Fed - U.S. Treasury Has "Forward Guidance" Now Too (01:13:02) Nouriel Roubini's Closing Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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