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In Episode 8 (recorded August 11, 2024), the Stock Jocks give their bull/bear treatment power semiconductor specialist Onsemi ($ON). Bull Gordon gets into a virtual “sword fight” with co-host George, who puts on his bear suit (very much unlike the one he dons in his basement on the weekends.) We of course also recap $SMCI earnings and implications for $NVDA. George would like us to advise listeners that this episode has some particularly “naughty” comments and is hopeful that his mother won’t listen (and give us 1 star!) You’ve been warned! Gordon would like everyone to know he thinks George is being a weenie. Compliments / complaints / nudes: StockJocksTips@gmail.com

Highlights:

(2:44) Obligatory take on the shifting sands of our Idiocracy / recent changes to political landscape for investors

(4:18) George pontificates on why recent market volatility is overdone; the Jocks debate the current state of the macro and the finer points of the “Sahm rule” for calling a recession

(10:49) $SMCI earnings (did anyone get the plates on the truck that hit those margins?) and implications for AI demand and $NVDA (on its road, per Bruce, to $10 trillion in market cap)

(18:44) Bruce floats a new income idea for unemployed Gordon: fraudulent invoices to the Mag 7! And why Gordon will never have $100 million dollars (hint: it’s a “naughty” reason!)

(19:58) George takes a brief victory lap on $SHOP (the topic of our last episode!)

(21:57) The Main Event: $ON is giving Gordon a semi! Company overview, and how Onsemi is like He-man (and Orko’s incomparable legacy as a “submissive”)

(32:25) Recent financial performance and outlook

(38:36) What might have been: May 2023 analyst day projections vs Street

(39:26) DA COMPS!

(42:05) George kicks off the bear case. A falling knife? Timing is everything. Host Bruce makes early deductions for style.

(49:29) George argues that cars (a key end market for Onsemi) is a market that is challenged by extending replacement cycles near-term and will be decimated by robotaxis in the long term.

(1:03:25) Stock Jocks “open their kimonos” and reveal their “real” opinions.

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In Episode 7 (recorded June 28, 2024), the Stock Jocks give their bull/bear treatment to e-commerce specialist Shopify ($SHOP). Bull George (a proud owner of $SHOP) shameless “talks his book” and tries to convince us the put some $SHOP shares in the basket (or we get the hose again!). Conversely, Bear Bruce makes the case Shopify is basically GoDaddy plus shitty pass-through payment revenue and therefore should be comped to other similarly shitty companies. Listen in to learn why Gordon thinks Shopify should be hosting bat orgies!

Highlights:

(2:17) The Jocks´ ¨hot take” (this episode was recorded the day after the debate) on the Presidential debate and what it means for stocks (if anything) and how it may have impacted lotion consumption in David Sack´s house(s).

(6:56) Newsbreak! $NVDA shift in sentiment and $400B pullback

(10:36) George cops to his losses in SolarEDGE ($SEDG) (and begrudgingly, to his “edging” hobby) and the Stock Jocks half-assedly discuss the current state of the EV and Solar end markets

(17:44) George kicks off the Bull case for $SHOP.

(20:07) Why Shopify is a “Perfect Company” / George bull “fever dream”

(35:00) WAM, BAM, thank you TAM! George dives deep into the key question: how big is the market opportunity for Shopify?

(48:17) The AI opportunity for Shopify

(54:51) DA COMPS!

(1:02:05) Bruce pleads with us to empty our basket of $SHOP shares: “Shopped Till IT DROPPED”

(1:07:38) A dive into the “quality” of Shopify´s revenue

(1:11:10) DA REAL COMPS! (per Bruce)

(1:21:55) Shopify´s earnings trajectory reflects its status as a “poster child” pandemic stock (and why Shopify should start hosting bat orgies!)

(1:25:17) The Stock Jocks reveal their “real” opinions.

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In a blissfully more succinct Episode 6 (recorded June 16, 2024), the Stock Jocks give their customary bull/bear treatment to hypeconverged infrastructure specialist Nutanix ($NTNX), which, turns out, is not a breakfast cereal and is instead, per Bear Gordon, “a shitty on-premise box company.”

Highlights:

(1:50) Gordon´s budding feud with the Reddit Advertising Overlords (We´re still hopeful they may adopt the moniker we´ve given them – “Glory Hole of the Internet”. The Jocks know a “shakedown” when they see one!

(3:31) At last, fans of Just the Tips will get the answer: How many children has Gordon conceived on 4 Loko?

(5:16) In celebration of Pride month, George starts “shooting his shot” on Bruce, aggressively complimenting his “guns”.

(6:37) In the News: $RBRK earnings update and $RBRK investment banker “locker room talk”

(13:11) In the News: Georgie takes an $ORCL victory lap; Cathie Woods´ “fluffing” the wrong tech CEO and missing out on a cool billion. Is Oracle a real public cloud player?

(18:23) At last, an e-mail where you can send nudes (and feedback, stock ideas, etc.) to the Stock Jocks! (StockJocksTips@gmail.com). Gordon is ready to provide your much needed feedback on that summer bod! Gordon would like it known he doesn't accept e-service from family court lawyers at this address!

(19:41) The main event: Nutanix, breakfast of champion investors, or Nutty floater in the bowl? Bruce, with a little help from George, explains what Hyperconverged Infrastructure (HCI) is and its benefits to managers and owners of IT infrastructure.

(22:29) Bruce title´s his bull case, “Mutanix”, cementing why he never became a comedy writer. Real talk about Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle Michelangelo´s pioneering cannabis advocacy and his drunken attempts to find and fertilize April O´Neil´s egg nest. (Side note: April was clearly Bruce´s childhood, cartoon “Hauk Tau” girl…as evidenced by the “TMNT Boner Jams ´97” VHS tape on the bookshelf over his shoulder.)

(27:21) Three reasons Bruce thinks Nutanix is “inflecting”: 1) Massive dislocation from Broadcom´s ($AVGO) acquisition of VMWare; 2) Dell selling direct and Nutanix disaggregating its hypervisor for separate sale from its HCI offering; 3) strong forecasted growth for the HCI Market.

(41:38) Gordon kicks off his deeply insightful Bear Case: “Nutanix: Bustin´a Nut!” Featuring AI-generated cereal box art to help inspire Nutanix´s marketing department.

(49:57) Reddit “Glory Hole” checks on Nutanix leave a burning sensation in Gordon´s investing “divining rod.”

(51:56) Say it ain´t so, Northland! Nutanix catches a downgrade.

(59:11) Concluding thoughts, our “real” opinions.

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In Episode 5 (recorded May 19, 2024), the Stock Jocks give their customary bull/bear treatment to recent IPO and data security specialist Rubrik ($RBRK). Bruce takes his turn as moderator as Gordon makes the case that the stock is just too cheap on the likely 30%+ growth, even accounting for a cash burn not entirely unlike Gordon’s on a number of wistfully remembered nights in Miami. George points to a host of metrics heading in the wrong direction, including sales force efficiency.

(3:41) The return of Keith Gill (“Roaring Kitty”) and Gordon’s “colorful” analogy for trading “meme” stocks (like $GME and, arguably, $DJT)

(7:46) Gordon has the dark realization that he trades like Tommy Tuberville; why does the senior senator from Alabama have long-dated puts on Lattice Semiconductor ($LSCC)?

(9:54) Observations from software and cloud earnings season (mentions of Episode 3 topic $DOCN, $ORCL, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT)

(12:29) Obligatory interest rate/inflation discussion (good time for a pee break)

(14:53) GPT-40 and implications for customer service and sex robot industries

(20:46) The Main Event: Rubrik. Gordon leads an overview of the company; “ Backup with Ransomware protection focused on Cloud”

(40:36) Valuation deep dive

(49:49) Introducing: the Just the Tips “Quant” Department (Nerds!)

(1:05:30) George kicks off the Bear Case

(1:09:13) $RBRK’s “installed base” advantage vs. peers; is growth not as strong as advertised?

(1:18:20) Why George think’s $RBRK’s S-1 “Subscription ARR Contribution Margin” is spurious.

(1:21:02) George does some serious ‘rithmetic to highlight increasingly weak new customer ARR growth despite increasing spend. Is $RBRK’s “new customer engine” broken?

(1:39:24) Bruce declares a “winner” / “besties” give their “real” opinions.

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In Episode 4 (recorded 4/21/2024), we address a topic that is near and dear to Gordon’s heart: the master of yoga pants, Lululemon Athletica ($LULU). As per our usual format, we give $LULU the bull/bear treatment, with Georgie (he started calling himself that - waiting for him to show up to the Pod with a diaper and bonnet…) tries to bull us up that $LULU can evangelize its magical booty-support/presentation technology to new corners of the globe on its path to becoming the next $NKE, while Brucie makes the case that $LULU a “Lemon”.

Highlights:

(1:09) Deep dive on Bruce’s obsession with Taylor Swift (man card: revoked!)
(5:29) Bruce news drop intro is a baffling techno remix; $RBRK IPO (the subject of our next episode!)
(6:38) Is $RBRK a storage company or a security company?
(18:05) Georgie tees up the bull case for $LULU
(26:03) Gordon inquires: do men really wear $LULU?
(30:04) Gordon asserts: $LULU is best known for “booty optics” (making women’s (?) butt’s look good!); the Stock Jocks address the underlying fabric technology and sustainability of $LULU’s competitive advantage
(50:32) Bruce aims to “dismantle” the bull case with the “bear” view: “$LULU is a lemon”(1:00:01) What are the right “comps” (comparable companies for valuation); does $LULU have a public peer? Is it $NKE?
(1:07:35) $LULU is “losing on the Street, and losing in the Streets” (nice one, Brucie!)(1:10:40) Georgie nervously discusses his $LULU “wife channel check” and his observations of emerging brands (Aloe) supporting Silicon Valley booties in his area
(1:15:21) Bruce unveils decidedly un-woke quotes from the $LULU founder and ex-CEO (cringe! Say it ain’t so, $LULU!)
(1:17:29) Conclusions / “actual” views

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In our third episode, we take a walk on the “small cap” side and debate the “bull” vs “bear” side of DigitalOcean ($DOCN), which currently sits squarely in the “IPO Class of 2021” bargain bin. Should DigitalOcean be thrown back (next to Leprechaun 2, which besmirched the legacy of Jennifer Aniston’s Hollywood debut) or seize it furtively like you would “Weird Science” (or perhaps that’s just Gordon’s unhealthy wistfulness for 90’s Kelly LeBrock – Google it, you’ll thank Gordon later.) In our weekly news segment, we discuss whether the IPO “window” is about to open like Gordon’s wallet at a Miami “night ballet”, or whether Silicon Valley bankers should put off that third divorce.

Highlights:

(1:22) Bruce channels David Sacks (of All-In) and drops the Easter Bunny from a helicopter in Florida

(4:02) Is the IPO window opening up? ($RDT, $ALAB)

(7:41) $RDT: The monetization opportunity for the “Glory Hole” of the Internet

(15:03) The main event: $DOCN

(26:39) Anatomy of a “bed-sh!tting”

(51:08) Bruce short case: $DOCN is a “dead company walking”

(53:54) Dude, where’s my NDR? (Net Dollar Retention)

(1:04:22) Conclusions

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In our second episode, the Stock Jocks, George, Bruce and Gordon take a fresh look at Cloudflare, starting around (19:48). Recording date: March 17, 2024 (St. Patty’s day!)

In the news:

• (2:00) $SMCI: Goldman no likely, Gordon straps on some puts, and the WSJ Comment Section as a research tool
• (5:59) Revisiting $PANW, management sh!t-talking at $CRWD, $ZS
• (10:53) $ORCL and why George is dusting off this old gray mare of tech for the first time in years (Also at 27:26 – What version of facelift technology is Larry Ellison sporting?)
• (14:36) $ADBE

On Cloudflare (19:48)

• (23:18 ) Stepsister porn and Gordon’s OnlyFans business model
• (29:03) Charting Elon Musk’s “Follicle Density” vs. $TSLA
• (29:57) What Jeff Bezos says to Elon when they are alone and the relative difficulty of muscle vs. hair growth
• (38:59) Are TAMs just total bullsh!t?
• (44:46) Bruce proclaims a “world class ass-whupping” by $NET
• (47:26) The GILF olympics: Biden, Trump and Hellen Mirren
• (1:02:19) George loses all credibility (NOT THE MAGIC QUADRANT!) and destroys a podcast sponsorship opportunity

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In our inaugural “Just the Tips” podcast (recorded 2/25/2024), three Wall Street and tech industry veterans (George, Gordon, and Bruce – “stage names” to protect the “innocent”) as they share their candid (and irreverent) takes on tech stocks. Periodically (as often as we can -- we have day jobs!) we will make the bear and bull case for a tech stock. Our first “victim” is Supermicro ($SMCI – “Super Duper Micro!”)

In this episode, we address:

• The emotional rewards of losing money (generating “alpha”!) on shorts
• Palo Alto Networks ($PANW) and implications for their recent bed defecation
• NVDA blowout, the smell of Jensen Huang’s jacket, and implications for interest rates
• West Coast vs. East Coast Investing, FOMO and Momentum investing
• The highly motivating impact of CEO packages designed to make the CEO filthy rich (the Hock Tan plan)
• How big will the Artificial Intelligence (AI) investment cycle be? Is it just for generating Podcast thumbnail graphics?
• Are “servers” a commodity – or not?