In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the labor market, industrial production, retail sales, the Consumer Price Index, corporate earnings, and the upcoming Key Wealth National Call.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:31 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 10th declined to 227,000, down 7,000 from the week prior

02:00 – U.S. industrial production declined 0.6% for July, as a preliminary read

02:32 – Retail sales reported above expectations at an increase of 1.0% month-over-month for July

03:07 – The inflation print for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported at 2.9% year-over-year for July; excluding food and energy, the report came in at 3.2%

07:17 – Based on the favorable CPI report, the market is anticipating the Fed may not have to begin cutting rates in an aggressive manner and could begin cutting rates only by 25 basis points as soon as September

13:05 – While earnings haven’t had any recent record highs, expectations still continue to heighten; even though the economy is slowing, it is still growing

16:56 – Final comments highlighting the upcoming Key Wealth National Call Wednesday, September 4th at 1:00pm EST.

Additional Resources

Key Questions: "You're Killin' Me Smalls!" Will Small Caps Ever Outperform Again | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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Market Minutes Recap - Market Update (Perspectives on the Economic Calendar and Recent Market Volatility)

In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on recent market volatility and its implications for investors. Our panel shares predictions on earnings season and insights on the fragility of the market and the outsized reactions to events in recent years.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:33 – Remarks on the economic calendar, Services PMI increase in July economic activity, and update on Initial Unemployment claims

02:40 – Comments on Monday's market volatility, rebound through the rest of the week, and what it means for investors for the near-future
13:20 – Predictions for Q2 earnings season and what investors should know about the sensitivity in the markets

17:43 – Recommendations of what investors should do about spikes in market volatility and what long-term investing principles apply

Additional Resources

Key Questions: "You're Killin' Me Smalls!" Will Small Caps Ever Outperform Again | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the JOLTS report, the Case-Shiller, the Employment Cost Index, the Employment Situation Summary, the recent FOMC meeting, and the VIX index.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
Cindy Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:16 – The job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported the amount of job openings remained unchanged as 8.2 million for June

01:33 – The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller reported 5.9% annual of gains for May. This continues to support that home sale demand is high, however the inventory of homes is low

01:58 – The Employment Cost Index measured wages and salaries increased to 4.2% in June

02:36 – The Employment Situation Summary showed unemployment increased to 4.3% for July

03:35 – The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met Wednesday and decided to leave rates unchanged at 5.25% – 5.5%. While the economic outlook is uncertain, Fed Chair Powell didn’t directly use language that hinted towards there may or may not be a rate cut in soon

06:48 – The Fed seems to have inflation close to their intended target of 2%, now it seems their focus will soon shift from inflation to prioritizing normalization within the labor market

09:25 – Comments on the Fed, and that the market anticipates two to three rates cuts by the end of the year due to the release of recent labor reports

14:03 – Comments on the stock market and highlighting the VIX index spiking to 24.5% signaling the economy getting back to a more normal volatility market

Additional Resources

Key Questions: "You're Killin' Me Smalls!" Will Small Caps Ever Outperform Again | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into existing home sales, Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, the stock market, and next week’s FOMC meeting.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:55 – Existing home sales declined 5.4% in June, confirming the hesitancy people have to acquire a new mortgage at higher rates

02:20 – The Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reported at 2.8% for the second quarter

03:37 – Overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation declined from 2.6% in May to 2.5% in June, while the Core PCE remained constant at 2.6%

04:45 – Comments on the stock market and the pullback we have seen for the S&P 500

10:51 – Comments on small-caps and their unexpected performance

12:16 – Remarks on the expectations for next week’s FOMC meeting and if there will be a September interest rate cut

Additional Resources

Key Questions: Private Equity: What Else Do I Need to Know? | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the monthly retail sales, industrial production, the Fed’s Beige Book report, unemployment data, the equities market, and the bond market.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities
Tim McDonough, Senior Portfolio Manager

02:22 – Monthly retail sales came in at 0.0% for June, which signifies a slowing in consumer spending

04:39 – Though there appears to be a slow-down within the economy – based on the consumer spending and employment data – it does not seem to be stalling

07:52 – Understanding what caused the shift within the equities market, as returns for the Nasdaq are flat, the S&P 500 is only up 1.5%, midcap stocks are up 4.0%, and commercial real estate is up 8.0% since the inflection point this month

14:05 – An update on the municipal bond market; also, after the CPI report was released, and the overall bond market is preparing for an upcoming rate cut, there has been an uptick in new issuance of bonds, and close to $11 billion new issuance of municipal bonds

17:31 - Final comments about continuing to stay diversified and investing in quality portfolios

Additional Resources

Key Questions: Private Equity: What Else Do I Need to Know? | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the Employment Situation, unemployment claims, CPI inflation, potential Fed rate cuts, and second quarter earnings.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:29 – The Employment Situation for the month of June reported new nonfarm payrolls rose by 206,000

02:15 – For the week ending July 6, initial unemployment claims were reported at 222,000

03:05 – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a decline in overall year-over-year inflation from 3.3% in May to 3.0% in June

06:16 – Based on the CPI report, as well as the Employment Situation Summary, there is a high probability there will be a September rate cut; and possibly a second one in December

10:29 – While the stock market has had a tremendous year, so far -- due to Artificial Intelligence corporations driving the markets -- we can expect a similar pattern heading into the second half, although we also expect volatility

14:31 – Final comments about continuing to stay diversified and investing in quality portfolios

Additional Resources

Key Questions: Should Investors Dump their Stocks After a Disappointing Debate? | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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Economic & Market Research
Weekly Investment Brief
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index, GDP, PCE inflation, the presidential debate, and hedge funds.

Speakers:
Ather Bajwa, Director of Investment Research
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

01:37 – The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported a 6.3% annual increase for the month of April

02:24 – The overall read for the final estimate of real GDP for the first quarter of 2024 came in at 1.4% annualized

02:58 – The PCE report for spending and inflation showed income was up 0.5% in May, and overall spending was up at 0.2% - 0.3% (based on inflation adjustments); while year-over-year PCE inflation was up 2.6%

04:52 – Comments on market participants’ boosted confidence that the Fed will implement two rate cuts in 2024, following the PCE inflation report released today

08:33 – Remarks on San Francisco’s Federal Reserve President, Mary Daly, and her comments from earlier this week

14:40 – The team dives into hedge funds, what they are, and why they are appropriate for portfolio diversification

Additional Resources

Key Question: What is the Investment Case for Traditional Energy | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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Economic & Market Research
Weekly Investment Brief
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In this week's Market Minutes recap, hear from our team of investment experts as they share their perspectives on the latest market and economic activity. Our panel shares detailed insights into retail sales, industrial production, consumer spending, the Fed, and the equities market.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:38 – The overall Advance Retail Sales report showed a slight increase of 0.1% for the month of May

02:19 – After flat/negative reports for industrial production in March and April, this week’s report showed industrial production increased to 0.9% for the month of May

03:17 – Comments on areas of the economy – such as real estate, retail sales, and overall consumer spending – that have a dependent relationship to interest rates, are seeing a slowdown

06:06 – While the market is actively reviewing data to support anticipated rate cuts starting in September, the Fed is trying to reel in market expectations as they are still trying to reach the 2% inflation target

11:59 – We have seen continued growth within the U.S. stock market as the S&P 500 is up 15% year-to-date and is showing a Sharpe ratio of near 2.0. Along with this, tech companies – like NVIDIA, Apple, etc. – are driving stocks to all-time-highs

Additional Resources

Key Questions: Key Questions: What Makes a Good Investment Fund Manager | Key Private Bank

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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Economic & Market Research
Weekly Investment Brief
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