For this podcast, it’s just yours truly. With 2H25 in mind, I go over trade wars, Middle East tension, and the US economy. Then I take a bunch of questions from clients and colleagues. We go over asset allocation, US debt outlook, attractiveness of Asian sovereign bonds, and a few non-market questions. Enjoy!

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We dive into the presently shifting capital flow dynamic with David Skilling, Founding Director, Landfall Strategy Group. David’s firm provides insights on global economic, geopolitical, and policy developments to firms, investors, and governments, so we begin by getting a sense of the mood of his clients. We then discuss if the ongoing geoeconomic instability is creating room for Europe and Asia to come closer, even with the China-US complications in place. We then delve into his recent publication, Capital Wars, in which he argues that efforts to rebalance global trade flows will contribute to structural change in global capital flows. We go region by region, from the US to Europe, UK to Japan, and then ending with South-East Asia, to take stock of the likely impact of greater competition for capital at the firm and national levels.

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This is a recording from the DBS Asia Insights Conference 2025, held in Jakarta on May 21. I had the privilege of discussing Indonesia’s near and medium term outlook with Chatib Basri, former finance minister. In this conversation, Mr. Basri talks about Indonesia’s strategy during a time of geoeconomic fragmentation, the ability of the economy to absorb shocks, what it would take to reach 8% growth, the challenges to education, health, and infrastructure, sectoral development strategies in place, and the future of jobs amid tech disruption. An erudite speaker, Mr. Basri’s insights are invaluable to those following South East Asia’s most populous economy.

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Prof Danny Quah, Dean of LKY School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to share his insights on the dangers and opportunities stemming from the changing world order. We go over two of his recent pieces; first, an open letter to the US president (penned before the US elections last November, and second, a research paper on the correlation between global trade and geopolitics. Prof Quah dissects the great power rivalry through (i) the perception of win-win versus zero sum and (ii) a tendency to attribute domestic welfare shortfalls (blue collar jobs, health, education, safety) to external factors (trade, immigration, defence spending). He then points out that trade liberalisation and the politics of global engagement have gone hand in hand on the way up (say, from the 1960s to 2010) and down (the past decade and a half). We then discuss a key point—the US shying away from globalisation or green transition does not doom those dynamics. There is a huge world of trade and GDP outside the US. The world is not being swayed; rules and agreements among the rest are proceeding, with the window left open for the US to return one day.

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Dr. Krishna Srinivasan, IMF’s Director of the Asia and Pacific Department, takes us on a journey of Asia, which is facing a major challenge to its export-led growth model. With geoeconomic fragmentation intensifying, how do nations strike a balance between trade promotion and domestic demand support? From China to India, South Korea to Vietnam, what is the outlook for growth, interest rate, and exchange rate, and what are the IMF’s fiscal, monetary, and structural policy prescriptions? What are the risk scenarios, given the heightened levels of uncertainty? What about the usage of the US dollar and financial stability risks? Krishna offers valuable insights on these questions.

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Alicia Gregory, Managing Director at Blue Owl, an alternative asset manager, joins Kopi Time to walk us through private equity, a USD12trln asset class. Drawing on her extensive experience as a PE investor, Alicia begins by going over the genesis of the industry. We then go through a number of topics, including the structure of private equity investments, key investment strategies, PE’s track record relative to public equity markets, and the state of the PE cycle and the outlook for 2025. We also cover the PE secondary market, connection between private debt and private equity, PE’s foray into retail, and possible risks in PE investment. A deep dive indeed.

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Kopi Time hits 5 years and 150 episodes! We celebrate the milestone with Piyush Gupta, outgoing CEO of DBS Bank Ltd. Piyush brings his remarkable intellectual breadth in this conversation, in which we touch upon various aspects of the present and future of banking. We begin by discussing how banks in Asia and the West have evolved since the 2008/09 global financial crisis, and their track record in embracing digital banking, financial inclusion, risk management, and relationship with regulators. Piyush then weighs in on conventional banks versus pure-play digital banks. The conversation moves on to the digital asset ecosystem and what that means for both banks and central banks going forward. We also talk about cyber security and banks’ role in green transition. We conclude with Piyush’s take on the promise and challenge of AI, particularly LLMs. What makes him hopeful? It’s the capacity of humanity to absorb all sorts of transformations and cataclysms, and yet move forward. This is not goodbye; we will have Piyush back.

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We welcome a foremost expert on the science of aging, lifespan, and healthspan, Professor Brian Kennedy, Distinguished Professor of Biochemistry and Physiology, National University of Singapore. In this fascinating conversation, we begin by understanding senescence, the process of functional decay of organisms. Prof Kennedy explores aging at physical and cognitive levels, and its linkage with genetics, diet, and exercise. We then delve into the scientific work going with several molecules that appear to be promising in slowing cell decay, including alpha keto-glutarate, spermidine, and the in-vouge NAD. Prof Kennedy is a keen proponent of data-driven personalised approach to medicine, seeing a great deal of promise in the application of gene therapy, stem cell therapy, and artificial intelligence. At the end, I ask him if aging is a disease that can be cured; let’s just say he has an intriguing response!

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