In this consumer focused conversation, Matt Hudson and Mike Aden (Employing Broker at Colorado Home Realty) discuss the proposed settlement of the 6 year class-action lawsuit which, amongst other things claims that the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is complicit in required practices by members that contributed to price fixing.

Mike and Matt discuss the terms of the settlement, the timeframe for implementation, the 2 primary characteristics of the settlement that will impact the industry and the ripple affect these changes will have on consumers.

This is one of the biggest industry changes in American industry history and impacts every homeowner and prospective homeowner. Know that your CHR agent is highly informed and can walk you through exactly what these proposed changes will mean for you.

The January Producer Price Index inflation report released in February effectively eliminated the Federal Reserve from beginning the decline of banking rates this spring, which caused a market reaction that drove mortgage rates higher.

This upward movement of mortgage rates has tempered buyer activity year to date, but we still see real estate prices rising on healthy demand. But the market is finicky right now, with some areas red hot and other areas unpredictably slow. We call this hyper-local real estate and as a buyer or seller, it is important to understand.

Many households may soon have a decision to make if prices continue to rise. Get a second job, or change lifestyle. Credit card debt in America now stands at $1.1 trillion with an average interest rate of 24% and auto loan debt is now $1.6 trillion with defaults and late payments on the rise. This may drive change to the housing market as some homeowners may choose to sell in order to payoff debts from past spending habits.

The Colorado Real Estate market seems to be playing out as we predicted.  However, the US economy and in particular the jobs market is showing more robust signs than most expected.  US GDP growth expectations far outweighs any signs of recession and the byproduct is the Federal Reserve pausing on lowering interest rates due to persistent inflation concerns.  

Long story short, this is creating even more volitility for mortgage rates than anticipated and the question remains, what impact will this have on real estate locally and nationally.  

Matt and Adam rapid fire the answers in this episode.  

In this episode Matt Hudson and Adam Hebener share analysis of what occured in the 2023 Colorado real estate market and predictions for 2024.

Wanting to know what is happening to the value of your home?  Trying to answer the questions should I sell and buy this spring?  Gain some practical advice as you think about your personal desires and hopes with respect to 2024 Colorado real estate.  

Interest rates, economy, housing starts, rental values, geo-political conflicts and presidential election year are all influencing Matt and Adam's conclusions.  Listening in as they walk you through where the 2024 real estate market is most likely headed and why.  

Too many industry "experts" are saying a real estate crash is on the way.  Matt and Adam simply believe these other experts are wrong.  

Interest rates are likely to be coming down and have markedly since recording this episode,  The Federal Reserve appears to be changing direction as a result of economic and labor market reporting, and at home in the Colorado market, we simply have one of the most diversified and strong economies in the country with a population begging to purchase real estate.  

There is no real estate crash in the near future.  

Buyers should be looking to buy right now, today before interest rates drop further.  When rates do drop,  increased demand will drive prices higher.  As long as a buyer can afford today's payment, has money in reserve, and is purchasing for the long term, today is the best time to buy.  Then if rates drop in the future, refinance to the lower payment.  

Sellers should anticipate rising prices next spring and command a good value for their home.  We'll likely see a market of competitive offers and short marketing time starting mid-February to early March.  

This episode was recorded only days before the most recent war in Isreal began.  Matt and Adam discuss the necessity of some "black swan" event occuring to shift the US economy, such as a another pandemic, lock downs, or war.  We don't know that war in Isreal will lead to a major social or economic event in the United States.  But we can see that conditions exist around the world as ingredients for change that may cause rapid shifts here at home.  Most likely those rapid shifts would include lower interest rates, which would spike real estate buyer activity and drive home values even higher.  

In this eposide Matt and Adam move fast in explaining current real estate market conditions in the Colorado market and use the word "judicious" in providing guidance to buyers and sellers.  2023 is the slowest year in real estate, most likely since the great depression.  And prices continue to rise.  Why?  Real estate appears a strong bet.  What is it we see in market conditions that have us remain positive about stability?

Where might interst rates be headed and how should a real estate buyer or seller be thinking right now?  

Matt and Adam recommend long term thinking.  Any real estate purchase should be a minimum 3 year buy and hold to be most prudent.  Note-there has not been a value decline of American real estate more than 2 years in a row, since the great depression.  The great depression saw real estate lose only 7% value over a 4 year period.  What hurt homeowners at that time was variable rate mortgages and declining wages.  

Home buyers should have money in reserve, a payment that is comfortable right now,  relative job security and minimize descretionary purchases unless you are in a position that is incredibly financially comfortable.  

If you need to move due to circumstances of life such as marriage, divorce, births, jobs or death, have confidence that real estate is simply the best performing asset class in the history of western civilization (Read the rate of return of everything https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/wp2017-25.pdf).  

The Colorado economy is strong and the real estate market remains healthy for reasons we've discussed in the past, even though volume of activity is as low as we've ever seen for a population of this size.  

However, there is a market condition Matt and Adam discuss in this Podcast that cannot be ignored.  They make reference to the physics question, "what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?"  

The unstoppable force in real estate is inflationary pressure and monetary policy plaguing the national economy.  Will sustained inflation continue to drive interest rates higher?  Will the Federal Reserve be force to continue to raise the overnight rates?  And if so, does this ultiamtely create economic slow down and job loss that cools buyer activity in real estate even further, potentially to some tipping point?

And the immovable object is the bedrock of real estate stability right now, 76% of homeowners have an interest rate and payment on their current home they absolutely love. This is keeping inventory low and that low supply ultatmely is what is keeping prices elevated.  

Will this real estate health continue?  Matt and Adam acknowledge the complexity of this question and work to provide the listener an answer with specific recommendations of how to protect yourself in an economy that feels more than a little shaky.   

In this episode we affirm for the listener that we are right on track with expected 2023 real estate market conditions.  Our only miss was anticipating interest rates to hit the mid to high 5% range, as we currently sit closer to 7% on a 30 year fixed.

There are two reasons for higher interest rates, which we address in this episode along with current market and economic conditions indicative of a rate decline in the coming months.  If rates do drop, we likely see a surge in buyer activity.

We discuss the seasonal changes currently observable in the market.  Headlines will speak of catastrophe as values are declining.  But values decline every year from July through year end.  All market conditions point to a strong, stable market now driven by lifestyle changes of marriages and births, death and divorce, job changes and lifestyle desire, versus cheap capital of 2020 through early 2022.

The 2023 Colorado real estate market is set up to end strong, priming for a stable, appreciating 2024 market that likely sees more homes hit the market and more buyer activity than 2023.