Is it too soon to call the bottom? Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer of Verdence Capital Advisors gives follow-up to Monday's sell of and what that means moving forward. "We think it's too early to call this bottom", stating that volatility is not behind us.

Reason being? Economic data was light this week, a recession is still on the table due to the prices paid component spike, treasury auctions were weak, it's the season for pullbacks, and earnings still need to come down. There's still plenty to see and we don't think it's over.

While Markets with Megan won't have new episodes next week, the following week will have more economic data and market insights to share. Subscribe, like, and share with friends and colleagues and for more episodes, go to MarketsWith Megan.fm.

https://youtu.be/0bM3V5BQ27Q

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

This is a Special Edition of Markets with Megan today after the markets experienced an incredibly volatile Monday. Is August truly the most treacherous month for equity markets? In this episode of Markets with Megan, we dissect the recent rollercoaster ride in global equities, marked by a sharp downturn followed by a fleeting "dead cat bounce." We delve into the abyss of plunging tech stocks, a skyrocketing VIX, and dipping yields, all triggered by a labor market report that spooked investors. Additionally, we examine the ripple effects of Japan's currency interventions and the ensuing anxiety among market participants.

Looking ahead, we emphasize the importance of a cautious yet strategic approach, highlighting the value of cash reserves and prudent risk management. With a volatile election season and an unpredictable Federal Reserve meeting on the horizon, our analysis offers insights into potential investment opportunities amidst the turmoil. While the road ahead appears bumpy, we assure you that we are not yet in bear market territory and still have attractive prospects to consider. Tune in to gain perspective on how to navigate what may be challenging in the months ahead.

https://youtu.be/VksPdZwLkGw

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Are central banks around the globe shifting gears? This week on Markets with Megan, Megan Horneman explores the pivotal monetary policy decisions that are shaping economies worldwide. From the Bank of Japan's unusual rate hike to defend a faltering yen to the Bank of England's unexpected rate cut amid a divided vote, the landscape is rapidly changing. The Central Bank of Brazil's cautious stance on inflation holds rates steady, and we dive into the Federal Reserve's hints at a potential September rate cut if economic conditions align.

Today, we unravel the implications of these central bank moves and what they mean for the future. With a critical U.S. unemployment report on the horizon, the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment takes center stage. What does the recent rise in jobless claims signal for the labor market? Don't miss Megan's analysis and insights into these crucial developments. Remember to like, subscribe, and share!

https://youtu.be/iWC0B9NG26k

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) prepares to unveil its latest decisions, our latest podcast episode dives deep into the economic data influencing these critical choices. We analyze housing, job market trends, and consumer confidence data to provide an outlook on potential Fed policy shifts. Join us as we unravel the economic puzzles ahead and consider the implications of a potential rate adjustment in September.

One of the central topics in our discussion is the housing market slowdown. Housing prices have been on a year-over-year growth trajectory of 6.8%, a deceleration from the previous month's 7.25%. This decline suggests a potential alignment with the Fed's shelter component goals. The cooling housing market, alongside the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report indicating a slight drop in job openings from 8.2 million to 8.1 million, presents a complex scenario for the Fed. Consumer confidence has shown a notable rise, particularly in future expectations, painting a hopeful picture for continued consumer spending.

The podcast also delves into the implications of these economic indicators for the upcoming FOMC meeting. With the housing market showing signs of deceleration, the labor market remaining tight, and consumer confidence on the rise, the Fed faces a challenging task. The possibility of a September rate cut is explored, with experts weighing in on the likelihood of such a move. Tune in to stay informed and gain valuable insights into the intersection of economic data and monetary policy.

https://youtu.be/20kuFiYBozY

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Can the latest GDP report signal a turning point for the economy? Join Megan as she dissects the surprising 2.8% GDP growth for the second quarter, a stark improvement from the previous quarter’s 1.4%. Understand how personal consumption, especially in services and auto spending, has been a major driver of this growth. It's a quick analysis of the AI boom's contribution to equipment spending and what the decline in residential spending implies for the housing market.

And that’s not all—our discussion wouldn't be complete without examining the critical role of government spending, its impact on the GDP, and the implications for the Federal Reserve's next moves. As we anticipate the pivotal unemployment report in early August, today’s jobless claims offer some hints about the labor market's health. Tune in for these essential insights, and don’t forget to like, share, and visit MarketsWithMegan.fm for more data-driven economic analysis.

https://youtu.be/sBMzY9M3gNo

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Can a single index truly predict economic recessions? Join Megan as she answers this question in our latest episode. This month, the Leading Indicator Index has once again shown a negative trend, marking 27 out of the past 28 months. She unpacks the components behind this month's reading, such as declining ISM new orders, rising jobless claims, the infamous yield curve inversion, and waning consumer sentiment. Despite some positive signals from stock prices and building permits, the negative factors continue to dominate.

She also examines the skepticism surrounding this index's relevance as a recession indicator, particularly given its strong focus on goods in an economy where the service sector remains robust. Tune in as we explore the intricacies of this data and what it signals for our economic future. Don't miss out on this insightful discussion that will leave you better informed about the potential twists and turns in the economy. If you find our analysis valuable, be sure to share, like, and subscribe to Markets with Megan. For more episodes, visit our podcast page at verdece.com/podcasts.

https://youtu.be/SPjk00xKSO0

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

The latest episode of our podcast shines a light on the intriguing dynamics of the housing market, focusing on the contrasting trends between multifamily and single-family homes. In June, we witnessed some unexpected developments that could reshape the future of real estate. With a notable 3% increase in housing starts and an even more impressive 3.4% rise in building permits, the housing market is showing signs of life, but not without its complexities.

Megan unpacks the latest housing data, revealing a mixed bag for the market. While multifamily housing starts surged by nearly 20%, single-family homes declined, marking the fourth consecutive month of decreased starts. This divergence raises important questions about the sustainability of current trends and the broader economic implications.

One key point of discussion is the persistent shortage of single-family homes in the U.S. Despite the encouraging numbers for multifamily housing, the single-family sector remains in a slump. Building permits for single-family homes have also declined for five consecutive months, signaling potential challenges ahead. The episode explores the factors contributing to this shortage, including rising construction costs, labor shortages, and regulatory hurdles.

The rise in multifamily housing is not just a statistical anomaly; it reflects broader economic conditions. As mortgage rates pulled back slightly in June, housing activity had a corresponding uptick. However, this positive momentum was primarily confined to the multifamily sector. Megan examines how demographic shifts, such as the increasing preference for urban living and rental properties among younger generations, drive this trend.

Tune in!

https://youtu.be/_dG3wSUnhVY

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

In this episode, Megan discusses the unexpected consumer spending behavior despite the high credit card debt and soaring interest rates. June's retail sales data has painted a surprising picture, showing how consumers navigate these economic pressures. Contrary to the anticipated decline, retail sales remained flat, providing a beacon of stability amid financial challenges.

One of the standout revelations from June's data is the strength in specific retail sectors. Internet sales, building materials, health care, personal care, and clothing posted significant gains. These areas have shown remarkable robustness, reflecting consumers' adaptive spending habits. The uptick in internet sales is particularly noteworthy, as it underscores the ongoing shift towards e-commerce. Building materials also rose, possibly driven by a renewed interest in home improvement projects.

Despite these positive trends, not all sectors fared equally well. Motor vehicle sales experienced a decline, likely influenced by falling automobile prices and possibly a saturation in demand. Additionally, restaurant spending showed some softness, indicating that consumers might be cutting back on discretionary spending in favor of essential items. This mixed performance across sectors highlights the complexity of consumer behavior in the current economic climate.

Find out more in today's episode.

https://youtu.be/vPOozGP0htY

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...