Episodios

  • Are We Heading for a 2030s Depression? - Understanding Global Economic and Population Shifts

    Are We Heading for a 2030s Depression? - Understanding Global Economic and Population Shifts
    Jul 24 2024

    What we can monitor and do now in preparation for a 2030s depression, which may or may not arrive.

    Topics covered include:

    • Why ITR Economics has been predicting a 2030s depression for over a decade.
    • What are the early warning signs we can monitor for increasing risk of economic and financial turmoil
    • What are U.S. and global population predictions by the Congressional Budget Office and the United Nations
    • What is the status of Social Security and what would it take to make it more sustainable
    • What are the impacts of a slowing or shrinking population
    • How should we invest, and what other financial actions should we take in the face of long-term depression forecasts


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    Show Notes

    Top 5 Causes of the 2030s Great Depression—ITR Economics

    The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054—Congressional Budget Office

    Testimony on Social Security’s Finances—Congressional Budget Office

    World Population Prospects 2024—The United Nations

    World Population Prospects 2024: Graphs/Profiles—The United Nations

    America is uniquely ill-suited to handle a falling population—The Economist

    Suddenly There Aren’t Enough Babies. The Whole World Is Alarmed. by Greg Ip and Janet Adamy—The Wall Street Journal

    Related Episodes

    479: National Debt Master Class Finale – What To Do

    468: Lessons from Japan’s 34 Years of Stock Market Underperformance

    395: How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, Inflation, Investing and Well Being


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    28 m
  • How Retail Traders Lose Big While Enriching Wall Street

    How Retail Traders Lose Big While Enriching Wall Street
    Jul 17 2024
    Gambling in the stock market is increasing, with most traders losing money while generating billions of dollars per year for brokerages and wholesalers. Will all this trading lead to big market swoons?Topics covered include:Why sports gambling has grown so muchHow gambling in the stock market is measured, and how prevalent is itWhy most traders lose money but continue to trade anywayHow uninformed traders improve market liquidity and encourage trading by informed tradingWhy being an asset allocator is more rewarding and as intellectually stimulating as tradingSponsorsNetSuiteBetterment - the automated investing and savings appInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesHow Stocks Became the Game That Record Numbers of Americans Are Playing by Claire Ballentine—BloombergMURPHY, GOVERNOR OF NEW JERSEY, ET AL. v. NATIONAL COLLEGIATE ATHLETIC ASSN. ET AL. SYLLABUS—The Supreme Court of The United StatesAmerica's Sports Betting Boom by Felix Richter—StatistaSearching for Gambles: Gambling Sentiment and Stock Market Outcomes by Yao Chen, Alok Kumar, Chendi Zhang—SSRNStocks as Lotteries: the Implications of Probability Weighting for Security Prices by Nicholas Barberis and Ming Huang—SSRNDay Trading for a Living? by Fernando Chague, Rodrigo De-Losso, Bruno Giovannetti—SSRNComputer based trading system and methodology utilizing supply and demand analysis—Google PatentsRetail Trading in Options and the Rise of the Big Three Wholesalers—Svetlana Bryzgalova, Anna Pavlova, Taisiya Sikorskaya—SSRNAmateurs Pile Into 24-Hour Options: ‘It’s Just Gambling’ by Gunjan Banerji—The Wall Street JournalRetail Traders Love 0DTE Options... But Should They? by Heiner Beckmeyer, Nicole Branger, Leander Gayda—SSRNRelated Episodes482: Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and Creativity239: How to Be a Successful TraderSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
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    23 m
  • Should You Invest in Defined Outcome Buffer ETFs?

    Should You Invest in Defined Outcome Buffer ETFs?
    Jul 10 2024
    Buffer ETFs protect against the downside while capping the upside. We examine them closely to see if they are worth it.Topics covered include:How buffer ETFs are structured and some current examplesHow buffer ETFs have performed over the past five yearsWhat are the risks of buffer ETFsHow loss aversion and narrow framing contribute to the popularity of buffer ETFsAre buffer ETFs worth it and what are some alternative strategies that could be used insteadSponsorsShopify NetSuiteInsiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletterOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesBlackRock Enters Booming Market for Stock ETFs With a 100% Hedge by Emily Graffeo—BloombergNew Stock ETF Offers 100% Hedge as Buffer Funds Nab $46 Billion by Emily Graffeo—BloombergThe Dynamics of Defined Outcome Exchange Traded Funds by Luis García-Feijóo and Brian Silverstein—SSRNMonetizing Loss Aversion for Fun and Profit—Paul KedroskyThirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment by Nicholas C. Barberis—Journal of Economic PerspectivesProspect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversk—ECONOMETRICAInvestments MentionedInnovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - January Series (UJAN)Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - June Series (UJUN)iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Jun ETF (MAXJ)Innovator U.S. Equity Accelerated 9 Buffer ETF (XBJL)SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)Related Episodes465: Transforming Financial Regrets into Portfolio Gains: Five Strategies for Navigating Investment Emotions460: Should You Be Invested 100% in Stocks Before and During Retirement? A Recent Study Says Yes. 451: How Much Should You Invest in Stocks? The Art of Position Sizing in a Volatile Market394: How to Get Better at Risk Taking321: How to Analyze Complex InvestmentsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
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    28 m
  • 7 Steps to Living a Long Life

    7 Steps to Living a Long Life
    Jun 26 2024
    Seven ways to increase the odds of living long into your retirement years (if you choose to retire).SponsorsMonarch Money – Get an extended 30-day free trialLifetime Money for the Rest of Us Plus membershipOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesPodcast Stats: How many podcasts are there?—Listen NotesQuality Over Quantity Is A Growth Strategy by Steven Goldstein—Amplifi MediaSlow Productivity by Cal Newport—Penguin Random HouseWhy our brains crave beauty, art and nature by Jemima Kelly—The Financial TimesWhy southern Europeans will soon be the longest-lived people in the world—The EconomistWhat I’ve learnt from two decades eating in Paris by Simon Kuper—The Financial TimesGetting Good Sleep Could Add Years to Your Life—American College of CardiologyClose friends can help you live longer but they can spread some bad habits too by Maggie Mertens—NPRUnited we thrive: friendship and subsequent physical, behavioural and psychosocial health in older adults (an outcome-wide longitudinal approach) by E. S. Kim, W. J. Chopik, Y. Chen, R. Wilkinson and T. J. VanderWeele—Cambridge University PressWhy I’ve hung up my wellies and given up the country cottage by Tom Hodgkinson—The Financial TimesAn Emersonian Guide to Taking Control of Your Life by Arthur C. Brooks—The AtlanticWhy you should never retire—The EconomistIt’s not so ‘terribly strange to be 70’ by Anne Lamott—The Washington PostSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
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    31 m
  • Don't Lose Access to Your Cash: Comparing Banks, Neobanks, and Fintech Platforms for Cash Savings

    Don't Lose Access to Your Cash: Comparing Banks, Neobanks, and Fintech Platforms for Cash Savings
    Jun 19 2024
    Millions of fintech app users have lost access to their cash. In this episode, we explain why this happened and show you how to protect yourself when placing cash with traditional banks, neobanks, and fintech platforms.Topics covered include:The mass chaos in the fintech space spawned by the bankruptcy of Synapse Financial TechnologiesWhat are FBO accounts, and why they are so troublesomeWhat is the difference between a traditional bank, a neo bank, and a non-bankWhat to look for and protect yourself when investing your cash savingsSponsorsNetSuite Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% offOur Premium ProductsAsset CampMoney for the Rest of Us PlusShow NotesCHAPTER 11 TRUSTEE’S INITIAL STATUS REPORT BY UNITED STATES BANKRUPTCY COURT CENTRAL DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA SAN FERNANDO VALLEY DIVISION—CourtListenerFintech platform Synapse raises $33M to build ‘the AWS of banking’ by TechCrunch—SynapseX Post by Jason Mikula—X"Full Reconciliation... May Not Be Possible," Synapse Trustee Says by Jason Mikula—Fintech Business WeeklyMercury Seeking $30M From Synapse, Emergency Court Filing Reveals by Jason Mikula—Fintech Business WeeklyInfighting among fintech players has caused TabaPay to ‘pull out’ from buying bankrupt Synapse by Mary Ann Azevedo—TechCrunchFintech startup Copper forced to discontinue banking services amid Synapse fiasco by Taylor Soper—GeekWirea16z-backed Tellus wants to offer consumers a much better savings rate. Here’s how. by Mary Ann Azevedo—TechCrunchFDIC Demands Three Companies Cease Making False or Misleading Representations about Deposit Insurance—FDICRelated Episodes440: Beware of Platform Risk424: Are More Bank Runs Coming? The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank412: Where to Invest Your Cash Savings for Higher Yields304: A 15% Guaranteed Return? Lending on the Fringes of FinanceSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
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    24 m
  • Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and Creativity

    Unlocking the Power of Positive Skewness: Strategies for Investing, Business, and Creativity
    Jun 12 2024

    How a few high-impact successes drive up overall average outcomes in investing, business, and creative projects. How to harness positive skewness using a barbell approach. Learn when to mitigate risks and when to embrace them.

    Topics covered include:

    • What is positive skewness and how does it manifest in investing, business and creative endeavors
    • How power laws and the 80/20 rule work
    • Why we shouldn't beat ourselves up if we aren't incredibly successful
    • When should we reduce positive skewness and when should we embrace it


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    Show Notes

    Long-Term Shareholder Returns: Evidence from 64,000 Global Stocks by Hendrik Bessembinder, Te-Feng Chen, Goeun Choi, K.C. John Wei—SSRN

    Long-Horizon Stock Returns Are Positively Skewed by Adam Farago and Erik Hjalmarsson—SSRN

    Wealth Creation in the U.S. Public Stock Markets 1926 to 2019 by Hendrik Bessembinder—SSRN

    The Coffee Can portfolio by Robert G. Kirby—csinvesting

    Active vs Passive Investing U.S. Barometer Report—Morningstar

    Table 7. Survival of private sector establishments by opening year—U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

    How Many Podcasts Are There? (New 2024 Data) by Josh Howarth—Exploding Topics

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    28 m
  • How to Navigate the Crippling Home Insurance Crisis

    How to Navigate the Crippling Home Insurance Crisis
    Jun 5 2024

    Why are homeowners seeing home insurance premiums increases of up to 70%, as David has? What can you do if your insurer drops you, you get a huge premium increase, or you can no longer afford coverage?

    Topics covered include:

    • What are the primary drivers of home insurance price increases
    • Why these increases don't show up in the U.S. consumer price index
    • How the reinsurance market works and why reinsurers are passing on 50% premium increases to property and casualty insurers.
    • What percentage of home insurers self-insure
    • What else can homeowners do


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    Show Notes

    Home Insurance Is Clobbering Consumers. Yet It’s Barely Counted in Inflation. by Jeanna Smialek—The New York Times

    NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts: Chapter 5: Personal Consumption Expenditures—Bureau of Economic Analysis

    The crippling home insurance crisis hitting America by Rana Forhoohar—The Financial Times

    The Hidden Driver of Soaring Home Insurance Costs by Jean Eaglesham—The Wall Street Journal

    When Disaster Strikes: Preparing for Climate Change by Seán Nolan and Krishna Srinivasan—IMF Blog

    Home insurance was once a ‘must.’ Now more homeowners are going without. by Patrick Cooley—The Washington Post

    Homeowners Perception of Weather Risks 2023 Q2 Consumer Survey—Insurance Information Institute

    Insurance Companies Feeling the Pressure in Iowa and the Midwest by Jerry Theodorou—Insurance Journal

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    27 m
  • Beyond Faster (T+1) Trade Settlements: The Hidden Costs of Optimization

    Beyond Faster (T+1) Trade Settlements: The Hidden Costs of Optimization
    May 29 2024

    Why stock, ETF, and bond trades are optimized to settle in less than a day, allowing investors quicker access to their cash and securities. What are the benefits and costs of optimization in the relentless drive for cheaper, faster, and more profitable.

    • Why countries are moving to T+1 settlement from T+2 for security trades
    • What will it take for secur
    • How BlackRock and Franklin have launched Treasury funds that are tokenized and trade on the Etherium network
    • How optimization works and what are the tradeoffs
    • How we can use satisficing and rules of thumb in order to cope with the complexity of the world


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    Show Notes

    About the ‘T+1’ Rule Making US Stocks Settle in a Day by Lydia Beyoud and Greg Ritchie—Bloomberg

    SEC Chair Gensler Statement on Upcoming Implementation of T+1 Settlement Cycle—SEC

    What faster trading cycles will mean for US markets by Jennifer Hughes and Harriet Clarfelt—The Financial Times

    Speedier Wall Street Trades Are Putting Global Finance On Edge by Greg Ritchie—Bloomberg

    BlackRock closes in on crown of world’s largest bitcoin fund by Will Schmitt and Brooke Masters—The Financial Times

    Optimal Illusions: The False Promise of Optimization by Coco Krumme

    Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models by Alex G. Kim, Maximilian Muhn, and Valeri V. Nikolaev—The University of Chicago

    Related Episodes

    457: AI’s Fork in the Road: Societal Bliss or Existential Threat

    329: Meme Stocks, GameStop, Short Squeezes, and Bubbles

    228: How Tokenization Will Radically Change Investing


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    27 m