While the war between Russia and Ukraine drags into its third year and out of the front pages of newspapers, some surprising developments in recent months are giving experts new cause for concern. The US, which has already supplied over fifty billion dollars worth of military aid and weapons to Kiev, has signaled that it is open to sending long-range cruise missiles to enhance the capabilities of Ukraine’s newly acquired F-16 fighter jets. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s army caught Russia off guard this summer with a surprise incursion into the western Russian territory of Kursk. Putin’s response so far has been more muted than expected.

Our guest on this Munk Dialogue is sounding the alarm. Dmitri Trenin, a member of Russia’s Foreign and Defense Policy Council, is warning western leaders not to confuse Putin’s silence with tolerance. On the contrary, he argues: we are on a path of direct collision between two superpowers who are unwilling to back down. Once two many Russian red lines are crossed, the use of nuclear weapons will be inevitable.

The host of the Munk Debates podcast is Rudyard Griffiths

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Editor: Kieran Lynch