Episodios

  • Fed Cutting Cycle Imminent, What's Next for Markets? | Weekly Roundup

    Fed Cutting Cycle Imminent, What's Next for Markets? | Weekly Roundup
    Sep 14 2024
    This week we discuss the split odds between a 25 and 50 basis point cut at the Fed’s next meeting, market cutting cycle dynamics, and the rotation from growth to value. We also delve into the latest inflation data, rising labor productivity, and the outlook for crypto Enjoy! – Follow Ram: https://x.com/ramahluwalia Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin – Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1XMVpZ672sX1qJV-admNYvznOPFXR737S – Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii – Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:22) Ram's Background (03:26) 25 Bps vs 50 Bps (08:42) Inflation Data (11:01) The Economy Is Okay (12:36) Fed Opening the Door to 50 Bps Cut (16:08) Parsing the Economic Data (18:12) Labor Productivity (20:27) Ads (21:44) Chinese Economy & Red Flags (28:08) US Equities (32:02) Growth Vs Value (34:31) Factor Market (36:34) Market Rotation (44:24) Permissionless Ad (45:02) Narratives Driving Markets (48:21) Digital Assets (54:49) Bitcoin & Crypto Price Action (59:05) Hot Money Rotation (01:00:37) Cutting Cycle Dynamics – Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    1 h y 8 m
  • Breaking Down the Disconnect Between TradFi & Crypto | Austin Campbell

    Breaking Down the Disconnect Between TradFi & Crypto | Austin Campbell
    Sep 12 2024
    In this episode, Austin Campbell joins the show to discuss the modern banking system and how crypto is driving innovation. We also delve into stablecoin designs, their role in dollar hegemony, the pros and cons across the spectrum of decentralization, and much more. Enjoy! – Follow Austin Campbell: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin NYDFS Stablecoin Guidance: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/regulatory/us-regulatory-nydfs-stablecoin-guidance.pdf – MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii – Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:46) Austin's Background (03:21) Unpacking the Banking System (06:15) Money Markets & Reverse Repo (10:35) Crypto's Role in Banking (14:05) Stablecoin Designs & Reserves (22:00) What is Crypto Solving? (27:33) Mantra Ad (28:14) Spectrum of Decentralization (32:34) CBDCs (36:41) Blockchains vs Databases (40:06) Permissionless Ad (40:46) Crypto & Dollar Hegemony (44:52) Backlash to Crypto (47:46) Crypto Market Outlook – Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    52 m
  • Fed Easing Will Match Weakness In The Labor Market | Weekly Roundup

    Fed Easing Will Match Weakness In The Labor Market | Weekly Roundup
    Sep 7 2024
    This week we discuss the soft jobs report and how it compares to the other data, the state of the yield curve and credit markets, and how China is bringing down commodities. We also delve into AI centralization, the outlook for Bitcoin and crypto, and much more. Enjoy! – Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin – Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GnXSyf79KLMoG5p0RRFoNBoAQUet_TOE/view?usp=sharing – Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii – Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:37) Non-Farm Payrolls (09:52) Comparing Other Labor Market Data (12:47) The Fed's Reaction Function (17:54) The Yield Curve Uninverting (19:13) Credit Spreads & Equity Rotation (25:54) Buy What The Government Is Incentivizing (28:34) Advertisements (29:48) Tyler's AI Rant (33:25) What's Going On In China? (39:30) Flight From China (41:52) Permissionless Ad (42:32) Crypto Market Update (44:54) The Effects Of Rate Cuts (47:13) Bitcoin Downside & Outlook – Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    57 m
  • Why The Fed Shouldn’t Cut Rates | Eric Wallerstein

    Why The Fed Shouldn’t Cut Rates | Eric Wallerstein
    Sep 4 2024
    In this episode, Eric Wallerstein joins the show to discuss why the labor market is cooling (not crashing), the decline in the personal savings rate, and increasing labor productivity. We also break down GDP, the credit markets, and how to rethink asset allocation in today's market. Enjoy! – Follow Eric Wallerstein: https://x.com/ericwallerstein Yardeni QuickTakes: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin – MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii – Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:14) Eric's Background (03:07) The Labor Market Is Okay (08:17) Why The Fed Is So Dovish (11:08) Consumer Savings (14:22) Real Wages (16:53) Labor Productivity (20:38) Breaking Down GDP (24:08) Economic Big Picture (26:46) Mantra Ad (27:25) Risks To The Consumer (29:52) The Fed Doesn't Need To Cut (33:34) Private Credit Markets (37:08) The Fed Supporting Credit Markets (39:17) Bond Markets (41:54) Stock & Bond Correlations (44:10) Rethinking Asset Allocation (46:22) Permissionless Ad (47:02) Global Markets & The Carry Trade Unwind (49:36) Chinese Economy (52:15) Europe Doesn't Issue Debt (55:31) Key Takeaways – Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    58 m
  • NVIDIA Passing The Baton From Growth To Value | Weekly Roundup

    NVIDIA Passing The Baton From Growth To Value | Weekly Roundup
    Aug 31 2024
    This week we discuss NVIDIA's latest earnings, the ongoing market rotation from growth to value, and the connection between credit spreads and unemployment. We also delve into the health of the consumer, the future Federal Reserve balance sheet, and Bitcoin geopolitics. Enjoy! -- On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b -- Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fUP_rOgvrTDONP2DfYnJyrzgbmWFt0mP/view?usp=drive_link Kansas Fed Paper: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/10443/Anil_Kashyap_Remarks_JH.pdf – Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:27 NVIDIA Earnings 08:12 Growth Vs Value 11:36 S&P 500 Earnings Growth 14:02 Yield Curve Steepening 17:40 High Yield Spreads 19:58 Credit Spreads, Unemployment & Recession 23:00 The Health Of The Consumer 29:59 Advertisements 31:14 The Future Fed Balance Sheet 37:05 Consequences Of Controlling Volatility 38:57 Central Bank Independence 41:18 Permissionless Ad 41:57 A Weaker US Dollar 44:54 Bitcoin & Geopolitics 53:19 Nobody Makes Money In Perps 56:51 Are Rate Cuts Bearish? 59:29 Will We Ever See Negative Real Rates Again? 01:02:02 Altcoins & Macro -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    1 h y 7 m
  • The Bull Market Will Continue Into 2025 As Liquidity Heads Higher | Michael Howell

    The Bull Market Will Continue Into 2025 As Liquidity Heads Higher | Michael Howell
    Aug 28 2024
    In this episode, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital joins the show to discuss the uptrend in global liquidity, a possible Shanghai Accord 2 to weaken the dollar, and the relationship between debt and liquidity. We also discuss the real breakeven inflation rate, the yield curve, and why you need monetary inflation hedges. Enjoy! -- Follow Michael Howell: https://x.com/crossbordercap Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Powell's Jackson Hole Speech (04:20) Uptrend In Global Liquidity (05:53) Global Risk Exposure (12:10) A New Shanghai Accord (18:44) Mantra Ad (19:24) Mechanics Of Yen Intervention (22:01) The Treasury Market (30:20) Breakeven Inflation Rates (32:56) Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio (35:52) Permissionless Ad (36:33) US Public Debt (40:14) Monetary Inflation Hedges (43:11) Managing Bill Issuance (47:03) Bull Vs Bear Steepener (48:50) The Structure Of Global Liquidity (50:08) The MOVE Index (53:49) Treasury Buybacks (55:06) Real Interest Rates (56:38) Equity Market & PBOC Liquidity (59:37) More Upside In Gold & BTC -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    1 h y 1 m
  • The Fed Put Is In & Global Easing Has Begun | Weekly Roundup

    The Fed Put Is In & Global Easing Has Begun | Weekly Roundup
    Aug 24 2024
    This week we discuss Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech, employment outweighing inflation, and Kamala Harris’ newly-proposed economic policies. We also dive into the credit markets, crypto regulation, and altcoins. Enjoy! -- On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b Roundup Chart Deck: https://blckwrks.co/4dUUAj5 -- Follow Zaheer: https://x.com/SplitCapital Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin – Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started – Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:13) Jackson Hole Speech (08:17) Employment Outweighing Inflation (09:33) Zaheer's Macro View (11:18) Housing Comeback (13:49) Polkadot Ad (14:26) Global Liquidity (18:01) Credit Isn't The Problem (23:02) New Cycle Of Investing (26:22) Kamala's Economic Policies (34:45) Permissionless Ad (35:27) Crypto Regulation (42:27) Election Impact On Crypto (44:19) Crypto Market Outlook (50:42) The Bull Market Hasn't Even Started (54:55) Altcoins (59:21) Attributes Of Value (01:01:37) Don't Fight The Fed (01:03:11) Polkadot Ad -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    1 h y 4 m
  • Generating Alpha In Macro | Capital Flows

    Generating Alpha In Macro | Capital Flows
    Aug 21 2024
    In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to discuss his macro philosophy & framework, why he was bullish after the VIX surge, and his views on the yield curve. We also discuss the equity bull market, whether the Fed will allow a recession, and the key drivers of bitcoin's price. Enjoy! -- Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Capital Flows Substack: https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin -- MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/ -- Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:59) Capital Flows Research & Strategy (04:49) Macro Philosophy (07:48) Macro Framework (11:39) Bullish After VIX Surge (15:26) Credit & Duration Risk (18:46) Mantra Ad (19:26) Interest Rate Expectations (25:51) Bull Vs Bear Steepener (27:27) What's Priced Into The Curve (30:38) Permissionless Ad (31:17) What's Driving The Equity Bull Market (36:31) Upside Tail Risks (39:31) Will The Fed Allow An Extended Recession? (43:58) Bitcoin Price Drivers -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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    55 m