The big things you need to know:

• First, 3Q25 reporting season has gotten off to a strong start on beat rates for the major indices, but we are continuing to see deterioration in the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the S&P 500, the Russell 2000, the biggest market cap names in those indices, and the rest of both indices when their top weights are excluded – something we continue to see as a challenge for performance if it persists.
• Second, we run through the main macro takeaways we found in our review of last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls. The tone on the overall macro, consumer and tariffs came across as mixed, with a number of companies expressing optimism about improvements / stabilization underway or potentially coming into view.
• Third, other things that jump out in our updates this week include a new study we’ve published on the relationship between ROEs and P/Es in the major Small, Mid and Large Cap indices.

The big things you need to know: First, solid commentary from the S&P 500 Financials that reported last week helped get 3Q25 reporting season off to a good start, though it was overshadowed by private credit concerns. Second, we reviewed stock market performance in early 2023 around the regional banking crisis as a starting point for thinking about risks to the broader US equity market. Third, other things that jump out include further deterioration in earnings revisions trends for the major indices and stalling sentiment.

The big things you need to know:

• First, earnings sentiment has been fading for the broader US equity market and is at a critical juncture for the biggest market cap names and Tech sector within the S&P 500.
• Second, macro signals were mixed from the S&P 500 companies that reported over the past few weeks.
• Third, our thoughts on Friday’s weakness in the S&P 500.

The big things you need to know:

• First, across all industries and regions, our analysts are constructive on performance over the next 6-12 months.
• Second, at the global sector level our analysts have the most positive performance outlooks for REITs, Materials and Financials.
• Third, our analysts were slightly less optimistic on forward performance for Europe/UK than other regions.
• Fourth, our analysts generally had mixed views of the policy backdrop.
• Fifth, when we look at some of our macro indicators, Canada has been the bright spot in terms of performance YTD and over the past month.

The big things you need to know:

• First, many of the US equity investors we met with last week were frustrated and wary.
• Second, other things that jump out in our work include a speech by the USTR to the financial community in NYC last week, the recent fade in the broadening trade and Small Cap leadership, the continued easing in earnings sentiment, and expectations around the shutdown’s duration in betting markets.

The big things you need to know:

• First, we review what clients were most interested in talking about on our trip to the UK last week, which included differences between US and UK investor sentiment, valuations, geographical funds flows, and sectors.
• Second, we recap the macro tidbits we picked up from last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls (where the auto-related names had a negative tone), our takeaways from the Duke CFO survey that came out last week (optimism about their own companies moved up slightly), and what we learned from our review of how stocks have traded around government shutdowns in the past.

The big things you need to know:

• First, weakness in Homebuilders doesn’t bode well for the recent outperformance of Small Caps.

• Second, we’ve continued to see some slippage in earnings sentiment (the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions) for the S&P 500, which has been driven by companies outside of the biggest market cap names.

• Third, bulls picked up sharply in the AAII survey last week.

• Fourth, our work on US equity market performance in the 12-month period following non-recession-related Fed cuts and reset cuts highlights upside risk to our 2H26 S&P 500 target price of 7,100.

• Fifth, capex growth improved in 2Q25.

• Sixth, US equity funds flows bounced back last week, driven by US-domiciled funds.

The big thing you need to know:

• The big thing you need to know: We are introducing preliminary forecasts for the S&P 500 for 2026 of 7,100 (a 2H26 price target) and $297 (full-year 2026 S&P 500 EPS). We think they should be viewed as a very early indication of how our models are tracking at the moment.