On today’s show we are looking at something that appears to be news, if you strictly follow the headlines. But if you’re following the industry, you will recognize that the media are reporting news that quite frankly is several years old.

The issue is the condo market. The problem is that the condo model is flawed, at least in its current incarnation.

Any condo developer needs to achieve somewhere between 60-80% pre-sale of units in order to qualify for their construction financing, the pre-sales process is full of uncertainty. New condos are just not selling.

The way developers in the past have got a jump on the sales process is to sell somewhere between 20-30% of the units to investors. That means designing units that are very small and will generate the most rent per square foot. Developers have also frequently relied upon the so-called friends and family contingent of buyers. These are sometimes subcontractors to the project who will commit to buy a few units, knowing that they will likely never take occupancy. These units will be sold after completion, or perhaps some of these contracts will be assigned prior to finalizing the condo registration.

Even with that, many of these units are more expensive to purchase than existing units in the market. Even units that were delivered 5 or 10 years ago are experiencing negative cash flow at today’s interest rates. So that eliminates 20-30% of the buyers right off the top. It’s now almost mathematically impossible to achieve the pre-sales targets without the investor component.

There are hundreds of incomplete condo projects across the US and Canada that are stalled and in danger of going back to the lender.

-------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

Happy New Year and Happy first of the month. On the first day of each month we review the book of the month. In order to be considered for book of the month a book needs to meet a simple criteria. It needs to be impactful enough that it might change your life or your perspective on the world. I would put this month’s book into the category of philosophy.

It is a thought provoking read called “Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind”, by Yuval Noah Harari. The book has sold more than 25M copies since it was first published in 2011. His works have been translated into 65 different languages.

The central thesis of the book is that Homo sapiens dominate the world because we are the only species capable of cooperating flexibly in large numbers, a feat we achieve by believing in "shared myths" —things like money, gods, nations, and human rights that exist only in our collective imagination.

-----------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are looking forward to 2026. I’m going to make some predictions for the coming year.

------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are talking about the narratives that impact market movement. Throughout history there have been two truths:

1. What happened
2. The story about what happened.

It’s that narrative that can powerfully influence the perception of what happened and the way investors view the market.

I’m going to use silver as an example. But the process applies to real estate, indeed to any investment vehicle.

-----------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are talking about one of the greatest threats to real estate, and it doesn’t come from real estate, or even have anything to do with real estate.

The word bubble has been making headlines lately with an increasing number of pundits calling the level of investment in AI a bubble.

Last week we talked about three styles of investing: fundamentals, momentum and arbitrage. On today’s show we are talking about the level to which a bubble has been created, and the discussion is centering around which pin is going to pop the balloon. The emphasis on the pin is misplaced in my view.

When you are in a bubble, it feels good. I know. I experienced it in the dot com bubble. My company went public in February of 1999. Much of 1998 was spent in the preparation for the public offering.

There were some really good technology companies that lost most of their valuation in the wake of the dot com bubble bursting. Amazon lost 90% of its value. Nvidia lost 85% of its value. Intel lost 80% of its value and Microsoft lost 58% of its value.

1/3 of the value of the S&P 500 is based on just 7 technology companies. If the market wakes up one day and realizes that these companies are over-valued, there will certainly be a correction. If the value of those 7 companies were to be similarly cut down as the dot com related stocks were in the year 2000, what would be the impact on the overall stock market?

Let’s do a simple thought experiment. Let’s say that these 7 stocks lose 80% of their value and that none of the other 493 companies in the S&P500 lose any value. If we see that happen, then the S&P500 would effectively lose 27.2% of its value.

------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s we are looking at the Year in Review. We are going to look at Six Themes That Defined Commercial Real Estate in 2025.

2025 was not an easy year in commercial real estate, but it was an important one. It was a year that forced clarity. If there was one central theme that defined the global economy in 2025 it was the word uncertainty. This was artificially and intentionally created by the White House and it permeated virtually all aspects of the economy. Commercial real estate was similarly affected. From one day to the next we didn’t know if a sector of the economy was going to be impacted by tariffs. We didn’t know if critical materials that are needed for construction or maintenance would be available, and at what price?

------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

Michael Matthew is a CPA based in Toronto Canada specializing in international tax for real estate investors. He has both Canadian and US clients. On today's show we are talking about some of the distinct differences between the Canadian and US Tax code.

To connect with Michael, email michael@askmichael.ca.

--------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are talking about what I consider to be the number one risk in any construction project. This is one of those activities that forms part of the substrate of the project, but in a customer visible sense adds zero value to the project. It’s necessary, but unwelcome. Furthermore, it’s the number one area where subcontractors notoriously overcharge their clients.

I’m talking about excavation, site preparation, backfill and grading. All of this falls into the category of dirt work.

At the core of this work is a high quality geotechnical survey. The geotech tells you the condition of the soils beneath the surface. Some conditions might be suitable for construction, and others not.

--------------

*Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)