• Record-breaking number of days witness world surpassing crucial 1.5°C warming threshold

  • Oct 7 2023
  • Duración: 7 m
  • Podcast

Record-breaking number of days witness world surpassing crucial 1.5°C warming threshold Por arte de portada

Record-breaking number of days witness world surpassing crucial 1.5°C warming threshold

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  • According to a BBC analysis, scientists are concerned that the world is surpassing a critical threshold of warming at an alarming rate. Approximately one-third of the days in 2023 experienced an average global temperature that was at least 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. Maintaining a long-term adherence to this limit is widely recognized as crucial in order to mitigate the most detrimental effects of climate change. However, 2023 is currently on track to become the hottest year ever recorded, and there are predictions that 2024 could be even hotter. Dr. Melissa Lazenby from the University of Sussex states that this is an indication of unprecedented levels of warming. This recent discovery follows a series of record-breaking temperatures in September and a summer characterized by extreme weather events across numerous parts of the globe. In December 2015, during a gathering of political leaders in Paris, an agreement was signed to ensure that the increase in global temperatures throughout this century remains "well below" 2 degrees Celsius, with a strong effort to keep it below 1.5 degrees Celsius. These temperature limits are measured by comparing current global average temperatures to those of the pre-industrial period, specifically between 1850 and 1900, before the widespread use of fossil fuels. Breaching these thresholds set in Paris does not simply involve surpassing them for a brief period such as a day or a week. Instead, it entails exceeding these limits consistently over a 20 or 30-year average. Currently, the average long-term warming is approximately between 1.1 degrees Celsius and 1.2 degrees Celsius. However, it is important to note that the more frequently we exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark on individual days, the closer we come to breaching this limit in the long run. In December 2015, politicians signed a deal on the 1.5C threshold, marking the first occurrence of this event in the modern era. Since then, the limit has been consistently surpassed, albeit for short durations. In 2016, due to a strong El Niño event that typically raises global temperatures, there were approximately 75 days that exceeded the threshold. However, recent analysis by the Copernicus Climate Change Service indicates that as of October 2, 2023, there have already been around 86 days surpassing the 1.5C mark, surpassing the 2016 record well before the year's end. While there may be some uncertainty in the exact count due to small data discrepancies in the global average, the significant margin by which 2023 has exceeded 2016 figures provides confidence that the record has been broken. Dr. Lazenby expressed concern over the daily and prolonged occurrence of the 1.5C anomaly in 2023. The onset of El Niño conditions, although weaker than in 2016, plays a significant role in driving these temperature anomalies. These conditions facilitate the transfer of heat from the eastern Pacific Ocean to the atmosphere. This, combined with the long-term impact of fossil fuel combustion, likely explains why 2023 is the first year in which the 1.5C anomaly has been observed between June and October. Professor Ed Hawkins, from the University of Reading, expressed astonishment at the unprecedented occurrence in the summer of the northern hemisphere. He emphasized the significance of the situation and acknowledged the concerns of Australian colleagues regarding the potential consequences, such as severe wildfires, as their summer approaches, particularly in light of the El Niño phenomenon. In September, there were continued instances of temperature differences exceeding 1.5C, with some surpassing 1.8C above the average temperature before industrialization. The overall temperature for the month was 1.75C higher than the pre-industrial level. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the year-to-date temperature is approximately 1.4C above the average from 1850-1900. Although 2023 is expected to be the warmest year on record, it is not anticipated to exceed the 1.5C threshold as a global average throughout the entire 12 months. Several factors have contributed to these temperature patterns. The world's oceans have experienced unusually high temperatures this year, leading to the release of additional heat into the atmosphere. The North Atlantic Ocean has recorded its highest temperatures to date, while the North Pacific Ocean has shown a stretch of abnormally warm water extending from Japan to California, as reported by Dr. Jennifer Francis from the Woodwell Climate Research Centre. The precise causes for these elevated sea temperatures are not yet fully understood, although one theory suggests that reduced air pollution from shipping across the North Atlantic may have played a role by decreasing the number of small particles that previously reflected some of the sun's energy and kept the Earth's surface cooler. Another factor impacting global temperatures is the situation surrounding Antarctica....
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