The violent confrontation between China and the Philippines on June 17th near the Second Thomas Shoal marked a sharp escalation in tensions between the two countries over their rival territorial claims in the South China Sea.

After the melee that severely injured one Filipino sailor, the two countries engaged in a second battle, this time in the media, to shape the narrative of what happened and where this burgeoning crisis goes from here.

Alex Vuving, a professor at the Pentagon-backed think tank Asia-Pacific Security Studies Center in Honolulu, joins Eric to discuss why the events of June 17th have prompted Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to recalibrate his strategy.

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Even just a few years ago, it would have stretched credulity to argue that China was a major diplomatic player in the Persian Gulf. Today, that is no longer the case as Beijing is fast becoming one of the key actors in the region.

China is now the largest energy buyer from Gulf countries, it was instrumental in the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Beijing has become a forceful advocate for the Palestinian cause at the UN and other major international fora.

A new book, "A Dragon's Odyssey: China's Rise in the Gulf" charts China's trajectory in the Persian Gulf and how it's become a major player in the region in a relatively short period of time. The book's three authors, Zeno Leoni, Ahmed Aboudouh, and Carlotta Rinaudo, join Eric to discuss how China's rise in the Gulf coincides with perceptions of a U.S. retreat.

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With memories still fresh from the first Cold War, leaders in Africa, Asia, and across the Global South have repeatedly said they do not want any part of a second Great Power rivalry. But as tensions between the U.S. and China steadily deteriorate, the pressure on these smaller, non-aligned countries is going to surge.

The geopolitical dynamics are changing very fast.

Jane Perlez, a renowned Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist who spent more than thirty years reporting for The New York Times as a foreign correspondent, laid out the challenges in a new eight-part podcast series on the burgeoning U.S.-China strategic competition.

Jane joins Eric & Cobus from Sydney to share her insights on where this competition is going and what impact she thinks it will have on developing countries.

SHOW NOTES:

Listen to Face-Off: The U.S. vs. China hosted by Jane Perlez: https://tinyurl.com/22kkfpu8

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BYD announced that it opened its 100th dealership in Brazil, highlighting the South American country's growing importance to the Chinese electric vehicle giant. It's a similar story across the board in tech, agriculture, and natural resources, among other sectors.

Trade and investment between China and Brazil is booming and is unlikely to slow anytime soon.

Tulio Cariello, director of content and research at the Brazil-China Business Council joins Eric & Cobus from Rio de Janeiro to explain how Brazil is benefitting a lot from Beijing's souring ties with Washington.

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Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto will take office later this year at a critical time when regional tensions over territorial disputes in the South China Sea are surging.

And this won't be just a foreign policy challenge for the new president. Chinese ships have crossed into Indonesia's exclusive economic zone near the Nantuna Islands at the bottom tip of Beijing's controversial ten-dash line.

Managing the escalating crisis in the South China Sea is going to be a "pivotal" challenge for Prabowo, according to Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, director of the China-Indonesia desk at the Center of Economic and Law Studies. Zulfikar joins Eric from Jakarta to discuss how he thinks Prabowo is going to handle what's becoming a very volatile situation.

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It wasn't that long ago the Persian Gulf was a no-go zone for Chinese diplomacy. Back then, China didn't source much energy from Gulf countries, and its diplomats were ill-equipped to handle the region's contentious politics. That is no longer the case.

The six member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council collectively form one of China's largest trading blocs anywhere in the world... and not just for energy. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others are now major destinations for Chinese investment in tech, autos, and other non-oil sectors.

But this relationship is still relatively new and often poorly understood by outsiders. The team at the ChinaMed Project issued a new report this month that provides a helpful country-by-country overview of the key issues that frame China's ties in the Persian Gulf.

Enrico Fardella, director of the ChinaMed Project and an associate professor at the University of Naples, along with Andrea Ghiselli, the ChinaMed Project's research director and an assistant professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, join Eric and Cobus to discuss the different narratives about how Chinese and Gulf stakeholders view one another.

SHOW NOTES:
Download the report: Power Shifts? China's Growing Influence in the Gulf: Key Trends and Regional Debates in 2023: https://tinyurl.com/24e4ks4u

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Senior U.S. leaders have once again called on China to use its considerable economic leverage to persuade Iran to change its behavior in the escalating conflict with Israel. Various U.S. have made this same request on several occasions already, going back all the way to the day after Hamas launched its assault on southern Israel on October 7th.

Each time, though, those U.S. appeals have largely been ignored by the Chinese.

That raises two important questions: why does the U.S. keep asking if nothing happens? And, even if Beijing was willing to do act, would the leadership in Tehran even listen?

For some perspective on these two questions, Eric spoke with Iran-China scholar Bill Figueroa, an assistant professor at the University of Groningen, who explained why so many in Washington are misreading just how much influence China actually has in Iran.

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Former Cambodian strongman Hun Sen was in Beijing last week lobbying the Chinese government to move forward with the $1.7 billion Funan Techo Canal project which his son, President Hun Manet, has made the centerpiece of his new administration.

The new canal would connect Phnom Penh's inland port to Kep province on the Gulf of Thailand, creating a new transport link for Cambodia's garment and agricultural exporters, among others.

However, the project is also raising concerns in neighboring Vietnam. Officials there are worried the new canal will divert water from the fragile lower Mekong Delta ecosystem, which provides a vital lifeline for millions of farmers. The Vietnamese also stand to lose a lot of business and are concerned about the potential security implications of the new canal.

Jack Brook, an independent journalist based in the Cambodian capital, Phnom Penh, recently wrote about the canal for a story published in Nikkei Asia and joins Eric to explain why this project is generating so much controversy.

SHOW NOTES:

• Nikkei Asia: Cambodia to divert Mekong trade via China-built canal, vexing Vietnam by Jack Brook: https://tinyurl.com/25j2fv3t
• The China-Global South Project: Q&A: How Cambodia’s Chinese-backed Funan Techo Canal Risks Destabilizing the Lower Mekong Delta: https://tinyurl.com/2adfcr3w

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