In this episode of The Flux, host John Cordier sits down with Don Burke, co-founder of Epistemix and a trailblazing epidemiologist, to explore the fascinating intersection of infectious disease research, artificial intelligence, and agent-based modeling (ABM). Burke shares his journey from a traditional career in infectious disease research to becoming a passionate advocate for modeling and simulation, offering a behind-the-scenes look at his groundbreaking work with HIV, vaccines, and global disease prevention.

Burke recounts his early days in the military, developing vaccines for tropical diseases and his epiphany when he first encountered genetic algorithms and artificial intelligence. This moment sparked a shift in his approach to public health, leading him to apply simulation methods to complex biological and social systems, ultimately culminating in his co-founding of Epistemix. He discusses his pivotal role in creating agent-based models for predicting disease outbreaks like smallpox, avian flu, and most recently, COVID-19, illustrating the power of simulation in making better decisions in public health.

Beyond infectious disease, Burke reflects on the future of modeling, emphasizing its potential to not only tackle epidemics but also simulate human behavior, social contagions, and decision-making processes—showing how these tools are critical for addressing broader societal challenges. Throughout, Burke conveys his belief that interdisciplinary collaboration and data-driven insights are essential for solving today’s most pressing global issues.

This episode offers an in-depth, accessible exploration of how AI, computational social science, and agent-based modeling are shaping the future of public health and decision-making across industries.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction to the Flux Podcast

00:19 Meet Don Berg: From Infectious Disease Physician to Modeler

00:30 Early Career and Vaccine Development

01:47 HIV Research and Genetic Algorithms

04:29 The Epiphany: Modeling Viral Evolution

06:52 Transition to Johns Hopkins and Building Modeling Skills

08:16 9/11 and the Rise of Biodefense Modeling

12:42 The MIDAS Program and Agent-Based Modeling

20:23 Expanding Agent-Based Modeling Beyond Infectious Diseases

26:43 The Campfire Concept: Collaborative Modeling

30:12 Lessons from DA Henderson and Smallpox Eradication

32:49 Reflections on a Career in Modeling and Simulation

34:49 The Future of Modeling and Simulation

39:11 Current Projects and Historical Insights

In this episode of The Flux, John Cordier interviews Rob Axtell from
George Mason University, where he leads the largest graduate program
in agent-based modeling (ABM) globally. Axtell shares his journey into
complex systems modeling and how the field has evolved since the
1990s. He explains how George Mason’s Ph.D. program in
Computational Social Science is shaping the next generation of experts
who go on to roles in government, research, and the private sector.

They discuss the power of agent-based models to simulate real-world
dynamics, from consumer behavior to macroeconomics, highlighting the
increasing availability of data and computing power that allows ABM to
compete with traditional models used by institutions like central banks.
Axtell emphasizes the need for more empirical grounding in ABM and
the potential to build large-scale, highly detailed models, including the
exciting possibility of simulating entire economies.

Axtell also touches on the importance of modeling social complexity at
the individual level, the challenges of past limitations in data, and the
unique potential of ABM to provide a more accurate picture of systems
like financial markets.

For those new to the field, Axtell offers practical advice on getting
started, emphasizing the value of tools like NetLogo as a gateway to
ABM. Whether you're a student, researcher, or data enthusiast, this
episode provides a deep dive into the cutting-edge applications of ABM
and its future impact.

00:00 Welcome to The Flux Podcast

00:18 Meet Rob Axtell: Expert in Agent-Based Simulation

01:07 Overview of George Mason's Computational Social Science Program

01:45 Career Paths for Graduates

03:34 Rob Axtell Journey into Agent-Based Modeling

05:58 The Evolution and Impact of Agent-Based Models

08:37 Applications and Future of Agent-Based Modeling

11:35 Challenges and Opportunities in Agent-Based Modeling

14:06 The Importance of High-Fidelity Models

16:31 Policy Implications and Real-World Applications

29:41 Technical Advances and Future Directions

36:44 Advice for Aspiring Agent-Based Modelers

39:09 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

In The Intersection of Science Fiction and Reality episode of The Flux podcast, host John Cordier engages in a conversation with Sam Arbesman, Scientist-in-Residence at Lux Capital and Research Fellow at the Long Now Foundation. They explore how science fiction, video games, and computational social science intersect to influence real-world innovations.

Harbisman shares how early experiences like playing SimCity and reading Isaac Asimov's Foundation Trilogy sparked his interest in complexity science and computational modeling. They discuss the concept of psychohistory from Foundation, and how it inspired modern computational social science to analyze societal behaviors on a large scale.

They also touch on how venture capital plays a role in transforming science fiction ideas into reality, with Lux Capital supporting innovations that blur the lines between science fact and fiction. Arbesman reflects on the increasing complexity of technological systems, emphasizing how understanding these systems requires new tools and thinking, akin to studying biological systems.

Ultimately, this episode highlights the value of scenario planning, counterfactuals, and complexity science in decision-making and innovation, making a compelling case for the importance of these methodologies in navigating an uncertain future.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:16 Meet Sam Arbesman

01:00 Sam's Journey into Complex Systems

01:34 The Influence of SimCity and Science Fiction

03:03 The Foundation Trilogy and Psychohistory

07:01 Science Fiction's Real-World Impact

13:08 The Role of Venture Capital in Innovation

14:19 The Future of Deep Tech and Emerging Technologies

19:12 The Importance of Counterfactuals and Scenario Planning

30:20 Encouraging Complexity Science Education

35:44 The Future of Simulation and Computational Science