✍︎: The Curious Worldview Newsletter - the ultimate compliment to the podcast...

Other episode of the podcast that suit this episode...

• Brian Klaas – Fluke & Randomness
• Russ Roberts – EconTalk
• Luca Dellanna – Ergodicity All The Way Down
• Scott Patterson – Chaos Kings
• Nassim Taleb & Incerto Podcast

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Everything Is Predictable – Tom Chivers

Tom Chivers is a prolific science writer whose written for Buzzfeed, The Telegraph, Unherd, published books, written for loads of other publications as well and now writes for Semafor’s daily flagship email (something I read everyday)… but here Tom is today to discuss his book about Bayes called… EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE: How Bayes’ Remarkable Theorem Explains the World and, the lead is not buried in this case, it is a book about Bayes Throerom which to put it simply… is an equation to calculate probability.

Now, my Talebian listeners will recognise a contradiction to our worldview in the title here… everything is predictable? how often has Taleb’s quotes, how can we predict a future of infinite possibilities based off a finite experience of the past appeared on this podcast? We get into Chivers differences with that Talebian worldview, but as well, there is top to bottom what is Bayes theorem, why does it matter, the role of this theorem at the foundation of all of these LLM’s and therefore much of AI. a neat little anecdote of Chivers family member, Sir John Maynard Keynes and plenty more as well!

• 00:00 – Who Is Tom Chivers
• 01:34 – Great Great Uncle John Maynard Keynes
• 08:44 – What’s The Point Of Bayes?
• 19:14 – What Is Bayes Theorem?
• 39:34 – Disagreeing With Nassim Taleb
• 52:24 – Counterintuitive Aspects Of Bayes
• 56:28 – Bayes & LLM’s & AI
• 1:15:12 – Serendipity In Tom’s Life

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https://atlasgeographica.com/brian-klaas/

Brian Klaas is an associate professor in global politics at University College London, author of several books, host of a really good podcast, creator of a huge substack and someone who has created a life for himself for which I wish to emulate many parts…

We recorded this in person!… Brian and I sat down together in his Winchester kitchen and spoke about randomness, chance, Nassim Taleb, Flukes and why all these things are worth thinking about…

If you like Taleb, then Brian’s new book, Fluke which just came out… is right up your alley. Brian’s research is wonderful.

• 00:00 – Who Is Brian Klaas?
• 01:00 – Life Can Be Understood Backwards, But It Must Be Lived Forwards.
• 11:55 – Does Brian Feel Like He Has More Or Less Agency?
• 20:51 – Taleb’s Blindfold Metaphor & The Problems Of Prediction.
• 35:20 – How Nassim Taleb Effected Brian’s Worldview.
• 44:55 – Why Experimentation Is Wise.
• 50:55 – Why The Minority Rule Is Relevant To Politics.
• 53:20 – Extremistan V Mediocristan
• 1:03:00 – The Idea Of Lock-In.
• 1:07:30 – Serendipity In Brian’s Life & The Media Landscape In The Next 20 Years.
• 1:22:00 – Brian’s Favourite Authors.
• 1:24:30 – An Ode To Madagascar & Explanation OF Geographical Determinism.

Curious Things Mentioned During The Episode

• Scott Patterson – Chaos Kings
• Russ Roberts – Reflecting on 15 Years Of EconTalk
• Luca Dellana – Ergodicity
• Me Being Interviewed For The Profile On Nassim Taleb
• Nassim Taleb Incerto Podcast
• Nassim Taleb Incerto Book Reviews

🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhogg

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/

A Curious Worldview Podcast (My Interview Podcast) - https://curiousworldview.buzzsprout.com/1485736

🎙️: https://atlasgeographica.com/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/ryanfhogg/

The following is with the debut Italian on this podcast, the one and only Luca Dellanna.

Luca is the extremely successful author of 9 books, and he writes these alongside his day job, as an independent consultant advising businesses across the world at the intersection of risk and behavioural psychology

This makes him the best communicator of the subject of todays conversation, which funnily enough is the very same title of most recent book... Ergodicity.

Time Stamps For Luca Dellanna

• 00:00 – Introduction
• 01:23 – What Is Ergodicity?
• 05:53 - Why Does Ergodicity Matter?
• 15:23 - Fat Tails & Power Laws
• 22:43 - Consultants & Skin In The Game
• 29:50 - Ole Peters & Ergodicity In Insurance
• 39:58 - The Perfect Example To Explain Ergodicity + My Attempt At Applying Ergodicity To Cricket
• 48:31 - Behavioural Change Is Non Ergodic
• 51:35 - Kelly Criterion In Nature + Survivorship Bias & Lindy
• 1:07:58 - The Influence Of Nassim Taleb
• 1:16:03 - Serendipity & Ergodicity

🍻☕: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ryanhogg