Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular Fringe Finance substack, warns we're in "completely off the rails, unprecedented territory" with the Fed trapped between printing money to save markets or allowing deflationary debt defaults. He predicts the Fed will ultimately implement yield curve control to bail out the bond market, pushing America down an emerging market path negative for the dollar—which gold's historic rally is already pricing in. Irons dismisses gold meme stock concerns since central banks are the primary buyers, and argues government spending is politically impossible to cut. Drawing from his background as anonymous short seller "Quoth The Raven," he explains why short sellers face unprecedented challenges as Fed liquidity creates massive distortions—$2 trillion in worthless crypto finds bids while fundamentally sound shorts get squeezed. He believes during April's Liberation Day, markets were "days away from a bond market crisis" when stocks and bonds unusually sold off together. Irons warns a sharp deleveraging event is inevitable though timing is uncertain, offering blunt advice: "Don't listen to anybody, including me" and avoid certainty, because we've never been here before and things can change profoundly overnight.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

X: https://x.com/QTRResearch

Substack: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction & welcome

0:36 - Guest introduction: Chris Irons "Quoth The Raven"

1:14 - Big picture macro view: unprecedented territory

2:19 - Gold's rally & stock market highs

2:54 - The 100-year inflationary cycle

4:35 - Fed's dual mandate tension

5:34 - Upcoming Fed meeting & rate cuts

8:45 - Trump administration's economic approach

11:18 - Trump's business background & debt management

13:53 - The Fed's uncomfortable position

16:00 - Quantitative tightening discussion

20:03 - Oil markets & commodities

22:45 - Investment strategy: gold, silver, Bitcoin

27:30 - Bitcoin vs gold debate

31:15 - Portfolio allocation discussion

34:20 - Short selling in today's market

39:07 - The Herbalife case study (Bill Ackman)

43:01 - The ultimate bubble & market risks

45:37 - Where to find Chris's work

45:56 - Final advice: avoid certainty & do your own research

48:16 - Closing remarks

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 297 for an in-studio appearance. Bianco argues the Fed is making a policy error by cutting rates when financial markets are at all-time highs across the board—stocks, gold, bonds, M2, and home prices. He explains that job creation has slowed from 158,000 to 29,000 per month not because the economy is weak, but because immigration has essentially stopped, reducing population growth to an 80-year low—meaning 29,000 jobs may actually be appropriate. Bianco warns that cutting rates in this environment risks recreating inflation through two key channels: tariffs (average rates up 6x to 17-18%) and remote work (giving labor more power to demand higher wages). He sees dangerous concentration in AI stocks (41 companies representing 47% of S&P 500 market cap) reminiscent of late-1990s bubble dynamics, with aggressive retail buying and passive flows creating mispricing that could end badly when the "buy the dip" mentality finally breaks.

This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

BiancoResearch.com

BiancoAdvisors.com

x.com/biancoresearch

0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco - first in-person episode

0:27 Big picture macro view

1:18 Jobs market slowdown - 158K to 29K jobs/month

2:18 Immigration and population growth collapse

3:04 How many jobs should we be creating?

4:34 Is the Fed making a policy error by cutting?

6:35 Risk of recreating inflation with rate cuts

7:28 Tariffs update - average rate up 6x to 17-18%

9:00 Remote work as inflation driver

10:32 Labor power shift and wage pressure

13:00 Where will new workers come from?

15:00 What would you ask Jay Powell at FOMC?

17:05 What problem does cutting rates actually fix?

18:15 Market behavior - everything going up

19:08 The 60/40 portfolio debate

20:00 Passive bid and perpetual motion machine

21:25 Retail buying the dip aggressively

23:02 AI concentration - 41 companies = 47% of market cap

25:00 Data center overbuilding risk

25:59 Opening your statements - everything looks great

27:28 Top 10% making 50% of all income

29:21 Inflation destroys cultures and economies

30:00 Would you trade higher unemployment for lower inflation?

33:17 Inflating our way out of debt problem

34:19 Jay Powell's "do your patriotic duty" speeches in 2022

36:23 Story of interviewing for Fed Governor position

39:11 Judy Shelton coming up one vote short

41:28 Who will be next Fed Chair?

42:51 Why Kevin Hassett is the leading choice

45:30 Where to find Jim's work and the WTBN ETF

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 296 to discuss the trade war, AI, and markets.

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

In this episode, Woo warns that the US economy is heading toward stagflation as tariff impacts finally materialize, with holiday shopping expected to be weak due to consumers having front-loaded purchases in anticipation of price increases. He argues the US is now in a weaker position versus China in the tech war, as China has survived Trump's tariffs through factory automation and AI integration while US manufacturing continues shedding jobs even in protected sectors. Woo is short NASDAQ heading into November 1st, when China's rare earth export restrictions take effect, believing the market has mispriced both the AI bubble (with companies like OpenAI spending unsustainably while hitting technology plateaus) and the intensifying US-China showdown over AI supremacy—calling this "the macro trade of our generation."

Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).

Links:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome David Woo back to the show

0:54 Big picture macro view and difficult 2025

3:08 Why tariffs haven't impacted economy yet

6:09 Consumer spending as preemptive buying

9:16 Holiday shopping weakness ahead

10:05 Gen Z consumer struggles

12:05 Stagflation thesis explained

14:28 Manufacturing job losses in protected sectors

16:43 Who's benefiting from tariffs?

18:05 US-China trade war positioning

21:52 China's factory automation advantage

23:54 US vs China AI strategies

26:44 The race for AI dominance

29:31 The macro trade of our generation

32:01 Jensen Huang: China "nanosecond behind"

34:22 September 29th export sanctions expansion

35:51 November 1st deadline explained

36:27 What would you tell Trump administration?

38:37 Shorting NASDAQ and AI bubble thesis

40:01 OpenAI's revenue vs spending problem

43:44 Technology plateau concerns

46:09 AI bubble meets US-China tensions

47:06 Risk management for short positions

49:15 Key catalysts: November 1st & earnings guidance

52:31 What keeps David up at night

53:13 Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine concern

55:03 Final thoughts and where to find David

Lawrence Lepard explains how the "monetary debasement trade" has gone mainstream as gold hit $4,200 and silver broke to $52. He presents a chart showing Bitcoin lags gold by months before moving harder, predicting Bitcoin will hit $250K as signs point to the "imminent big print" with Powell's May 2026 term ending.

Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

X: https://x.com/LawrenceLepard

Website: https://ema2.com/

The Big Print book: https://www.amazon.com/Big-Print-Happened-America-Sound/dp/B0DVTCWYNN

0:00 Welcome back Lawrence Lepard

1:09 Monetary debasement trade going mainstream

2:07 Gold broke from $3,400 to $4,200, silver new all-time high at $52

3:58 Fed

5:08 Fed balance sheet signs pointing to imminent big print

7:38 Bitcoin has lag to gold - gold smells it first, Bitcoin moves harder

9:38 US stock market $66T vs gold/silver miners $800B market cap

11:04 Silver move signals real bull market - heading to $60-$100

13:22 Big beautiful bill spending away tariff and DOGE savings

15:14 Chart: Bitcoin lags gold but moves harder when it catches up

18:09 Gold/Bitcoin both sound money - shouldn't fight each other

20:16 Everything bubble - been dead wrong shorting stocks

22:38 This decade like 1970s on steroids with stagflation

24:51 Possible currency reset or hyperinflation tail case

27:03 Base case: stagflationary 1970s on steroids

28:42 12 Fed members set price of money for 330 million Americans

31:13 Real Housewives of Wall Street - wife borrowed $200M non-recourse

34:17 HBS confronting Geithner - victory lap for corrupt 2008 bailouts

36:07 Changed shorting rules during crisis - got wiped out

41:22 Daniel Webster: inflation fertilizes rich man's field with poor man's sweat

42:50 WWI Liberty bonds first modern big print doubled prices

46:01 Next 10 years vision: Blue team 2028, hyperinflation by 2032

47:54 Michael Saylor for president 2032 - modern Thomas Jefferson

48:28 Why Bitcoin not gold? Better, digital age, hard to move gold

50:37 Bitcoin inequality concern - rich will spend it, plumbers get paid in it

52:59 Sound money means no more wars - governments can't afford them

54:12 Fix debt? It's in worthless dollars - we're out of debt

56:52 Decentralization saving us now

Thomas Thornton, founder and president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss extreme market conditions with investors "all in, levered, and complacent." He argues we're at a blow-off top characterized by record call buying, leverage through ETFs, and a gambling mentality fueled by 0DTE options and sports betting culture.

Thornton highlights dangerous market mechanics: the Goldman Sachs most shorted basket is up 38% year-to-date, meaning short sellers have been squeezed out and won't provide natural buying support during corrections. He notes extreme concentration risk with 10 stocks comprising 40% of the S&P 500, and Nvidia alone responsible for 18% of market gains. Technical indicators show exhaustion signals while the market continues higher on narrowing breadth. Thornton identifies AI trade risks including slowing CapEx growth, insufficient power infrastructure, and water constraints for data centers. He rebuts bull arguments by comparing current conditions unfavorably to 2000, noting $38 trillion in debt versus $4 trillion then. He explains why the Fed can't save markets this time due to Treasury market dysfunction. Currently positioned net short with disciplined risk management, Thornton predicts people will look back on 2025 and say "the signs were so obvious." He advises investors to lower exposures and leverage, warning that opportunities will come when his indicators reach oversold levels and nobody wants to buy.

This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

https://www.hedgefundtelemetry.com/

https://www.x.com/tommythornton

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction and welcome

1:02 - "People are all in, levered, and complacent" - Market positioning

3:43 - Gambling mentality and comparison to past market cycles

5:20 - How leverage and zero DTE options change market dynamics

7:39 - "Market correction or something worse" - What's ahead

7:52 - "I definitely think we're at a blow off top"

9:20 - Goldman Sachs most shorted basket and dangerous market mechanics

11:51 - Passive ETFs and leverage risk

12:46 - Market sentiment analysis with charts

14:13 - CNN Fear & Greed Index critique

15:30 - DeMark indicators flashing exhaustion signals

18:22 - Goldman Sachs most shorted basket technical breakdown

19:01 - Concentration risk: 10 stocks = 40% of S&P 500

21:28 - Call buying extremes and put/call ratios

23:23 - AI trade risks and CapEx spending concerns

25:42 - Energy and water constraints for AI data centers

30:28 - Market narrowing despite new highs

32:40 - Bull case rebuttal: Why this is different from 2000

34:48 - Why the Fed can't save the market this time

36:22 - Net short positioning and risk management strategy

39:44 - "The signs were so obvious" - How we'll remember 2025

41:35 - Long idea: Golar natural gas infrastructure play

44:28 - Hedge Fund Telemetry overview and parting advice

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the Fed minutes. In this episode, DiMartino Booth highlights how the Fed quietly reclassified nearly $300 billion in loans on a Friday afternoon with no comment, shifting them from stodgy commercial categories into the "black box" of non-depository financial institution (NDFI) lending now totaling $1.7 trillion. She draws parallels to Enron as First Brands bankruptcy exposes what appeared to be an auto supplier was actually a financial using off-balance sheet vehicles, with subprime delinquency rates likely double reported figures. Elsewhere, Booth warns youth unemployment hit 1988 levels but from lack of demand not supply as companies blindly adopt AI without hiring, leaving the Class of 2025 worse off than 2024. She argues gold has become a "meme stock" with Wall Street firms' price targets signaling contrarian risk, while the government shutdown leaves the Fed "flying blind" without official data for their October 29th meeting.

Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

0:00 Hawkish Fed minutes - knife in Miran's back
1:44 Fed insider on Miran controversy
2:48 Did Fed want September cut?
5:08 Shutdown means Fed flying blind October
6:04 Gold and NASDAQ flying - unusual
7:03 Gold as meme stock - contrarian warning
9:50 NDFI loans - $1.7 trillion black box
12:21 $250B loan reclassification bombshell
13:14 Fed reclassified quietly on Friday
14:17 First brands like Enron revelation
16:21 Off balance sheet financing returns
18:25 Subprime delinquencies likely double
20:15 Is this systemic? Fed doesn't know
21:28 Fed won't move without official data
22:22 Challenger data horror at Fed
24:52 Charts need gray recession bars
25:12 Fed put born October 1987
27:32 Youth unemployment demand crisis
30:02 AI adoption without hiring
32:24 Parents worry kids made redundant
33:20 First five years determine career
35:48 Not sending kids to college
37:11 Put faces on repo statistics
38:47 Markets masking K economy
39:01 Lowercase i economy concept

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, explains why Americans remain uncomfortable with gold despite it hitting new highs - it implies dollar weakness after 150 years of reserve currency dominance. He reveals FDR seized the Federal Reserve's gold in 1933 with little compensation, while today US gold allocation sits under 1% of portfolios versus growing central bank accumulation. Whalen defends his call for earlier Fed cuts. He sees gold reaching $5,000+ by end of 2026 as US allocations shift from under 1% toward 2%, while warning the average person without assets continues getting screwed as the Fed will eventually monetize Treasury issuance through financial repression.

Sponsor:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance

0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis

1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut

2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint

2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point

4:17 Monetary Metals ad read

5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top

6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class

7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months

9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater

10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis

13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels

15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury

18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out

19:54 Taking profits

22:36 Watching the herd mentality

25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead

27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors

31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion

33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling

34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency

36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, presents his business cycle framework showing leading indicators crossed in November 2024 (Titanic hit iceberg), but imminent recession indicators haven't triggered yet (ship not sinking). He sees a final blow-off top with S&P potentially hitting 7,500 and NASDAQ 28,000 before a potential 50% crash that would still leave valuations at third-highest ever with market cap to GDP at unprecedented 220%. Zeberg warns gold is in a "mini bubble" front-running deflationary collapse and will decline when dollar bottoms, despite $35,000 long-term target. His most provocative thesis: after deflationary bust, Fed money printing will cause stagflation because "Mrs. Johnson" will hoard rate cut savings rather than spend, while Fed remains "way too late" using lagging indicators like "driving by looking in rear window."

Sponsors:

Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/

Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201

0:00 Welcome and introduction - Henrik Zeberg

1:13 Zeberg Business Cycle framework - four phases explained

3:28 Leading indicators crossed November 2024 - Titanic hit iceberg

5:43 Imminent recession indicators - credit spreads, yield spreads, initial claims

8:39 Markets don't lead - unemployment bottoms before stock market tops

13:52 Market cap to GDP at 220% - unprecedented bubble territory

16:08 Elliott Wave targets - S&P 7,500, NASDAQ 28,000 possible

18:40 Singapore index - canary in coal mine for global economy

19:17 Everything bubble explained - rate suppression distorted all valuations

22:44 Most dangerous when people don't recognize bubble

24:37 Fed micromanaging creates inefficient capital allocation

27:05 S&P could fall 50% to 3,350 and still be third highest valuation ever

29:59 Gold mini bubble - front-running deflationary collapse

32:54 Dollar bottom coming - gold decline ahead despite long-term bullishness

34:03 Own physical gold but don't buy more right now

37:05 Stagflation thesis - deflationary bust then high inflation

42:49 Mrs. Johnson won't spend rate cut savings - she'll hoard it

44:57 Fed way too late - rearranging deck chairs on Titanic

48:43 Housing affordability

51:01 Central bank hubris

53:55 Fed using lagging indicators - driving by looking in rear window

57:42 Peak euphoria warning - when it feels best, be most careful