Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, returns for his quarterly update. Despite clear deterioration in the labor market — where he argues real unemployment is closer to 5.4% than the reported 4.3% — Henrik is not calling a market top yet. In fact, he sees a 30%+ rally still ahead in the Nasdaq, echoing the 25% surge in mid-2007 and the 45% explosion in 2000, both of which happened right before everything fell apart. He breaks down why the Fed is repeating the exact same mistake as 2007, why PMI numbers are widely misunderstood, and why private credit is the new subprime — only this time the dominoes are lined up in a dark room and nobody knows who's exposed to what. He also shares his current positioning and his outlook for gold and silver.

Links:

X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/

Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201

TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro and welcome back Henrik

1:23 - Macro view: economy slower than expected, the jobs reality

3:46 - Why Henrik doesn't trust the jobs numbers

8:44 - Why PMI is one of the most misunderstood indicators 1

0:21 - What's keeping the market propped up

11:00 - Consumer delinquencies and private credit cracks

13:26 - The final blow-off rally: are we still in it?

16:36 - The 2000 and 2007 parallels: Nasdaq surges right before the crash

8:15 - "We have not seen the top" — 30%+ rally still ahead

20:29 - Is Henrik buying the dip right now?

25:30 - The Titanic

28:46 - The Fed making the same mistake as 2007

34:09 - Private credit: the new subprime

38:27 - Why the next crisis will be harder to backstop than 2008

40:47 - The greatest Fed policy mistake in history

44:16 - What the Fed should have done

46:29 - 2007 flashback: 125 basis points in a single month

48:46 - The Zeberg Business Cycle Model explained

53:59 - Gold and silver: why he expects a major decline from here

56:12 - Henrik's current positioning: fully risk-on

57:27 - Parting thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says this selloff is worse than Liberation Day because it's real economic dislocation — not just a market surprise — driven by the Iran war's devastating knock-on effects on energy, chemicals and global supply chains. He says the Fed should do nothing, because this inflation is caused by war not monetary policy and central banks can't fix a sulfur shortage. But he warns QE is coming anyway — "the question is not if, but when" — because Congress refuses to deal with the deficit and the Fed will eventually be forced to monetize the debt. He's been cutting market exposure, raising cash, and buying physical metals on the dip. On private credit he sees a slow-motion trainwreck with a Lehman moment still possible, and says Washington is going to make it worse by ignoring it.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro and welcome Chris

01:00 - The Fed should do nothing — you can't fight war inflation with rate hikes

2:39 - Why this inflation is fundamentally different from 2021

3:03 - Powell got it wrong on QE — and Trump totally mishandled the situation

4:12 - The rationale for doing nothing — the dual mandate is the problem

5:12 - Jobs report — 178,000 jobs added, unemployment at 4.3%

8:02 - M2 is expanding — this economy keeps going regardless of policymakers

9:01 - Are we headed for a recession?

10:06 - The John Dizard interview — diesel is the real key to the global economy

12:54 - Even if the war ends tomorrow — damage will take months or years to fix

20:00 - Whalen has been cutting market exposure and raising cash

20:28 - Is this worse than Liberation Day? "I think it is — much more significant"

21:29 - Why gold and silver sold off — Gulf states raising cash

22:41 - What's behind the dollar rebound

23:28 - QE is coming — "not if, but when"

25:09 - Viewer Mail: Second and third order impacts of the oil surge on liquidity

26:47 - Viewer Mail: Can private credit break all at once?

28:16 - Viewer Mail: Should I lock my mortgage rate now?

29:05 - Viewer Mail: Rising long-term rates and Annaly — what am I missing?

30:31 - Viewer Mail: What can Treasury do to help private credit?

32:06 - Is it too late to do anything about private credit?

34:07 - What Whalen is watching next week — credit, Treasury market, mortgage rates

Brent Johnson, founder and CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, joins The Julia La Roche Show in-studio for a wide-ranging conversation on why the world most investors grew up in is over. Johnson argues that power now matters more than economics — that the old framework of spreadsheets and cash flows is no longer sufficient when supply chains, national security, and geopolitical competition determine outcomes. He breaks down the US-China power competition, the implications of the Iran conflict for energy, food prices, and portfolios, and why he remains in US equities despite the consensus rotation into emerging markets. He also updates his Dollar Milkshake Theory, makes a provocative case that what comes after the American Republic is the American Empire, and explains why stablecoins may be the most underappreciated geopolitical tool the US has right now.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@milkshakespod

Substack: https://research.santiagocapital.com/

0:00 Intro & welcome Brent Johnson

1:05 Current macro picture: the world has changed & power matters more than economics

4:37 Signposts reinforcing the thesis — Trump as symptom, not cause

5:42 What the paradigm shift means for investors — the law of one price is gone

8:25 The high angst/low drawdown paradox — markets only down 10% but everyone's acting like it's 30%

9:43 Conviction vs. confliction — investing for what will happen vs. what you want to happen

13:23 Iran: thinking through the probabilities without the certainty

16:27 The US is still the most powerful country in the world — what that means for portfolios

18:01 Portfolio implications of the Iran scenarios — energy, food prices, the Strait of Hormuz

21:23 It's all about US-China — the prisoner exchange and the technology race

29:16 Where Brent is putting money right now — capital preservation, cash, gold, US equities

31:12 Why he's NOT rotating into emerging markets — the four scenarios framework

34:09 The Dollar Milkshake Theory explained — and how it's held up in 2025-26

39:29 Stablecoins: what Brent got wrong and why they matter more than he thought

46:26 CBDCs vs stablecoins — and the coming conflict between the Fed and the Treasury

50:05 The Fed: cut, hike or hold?

52:48 Japan: the yen trap, JGBs, and why it matters for everyone

54:46 What question nobody asks Brent but should

56:33 What keeps him up at night and what makes him optimistic

57:44 The Roman Republic vs the Roman Empire — is America heading toward empire not collapse

1:01:40 Parting thoughts: find a community of people you trust who disagree with you

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-person episode discussing the risks in the markets today. McDonald makes the case that private credit is this cycle's subprime — opaque, over-leveraged, and already cracking — and warns that the retail investors who were sold quarterly liquidity on an inherently illiquid asset class are about to find out the hard way. He also breaks down why stagflation is the defining macro theme of 2026, why the 60/40 portfolio is broken, and why the great migration out of financial assets and into hard assets — energy, copper, gold, and commodities — is only in the second or third inning. Plus: a surprising first-ever Bitcoin buy, why natural gas is his top multi-year trade, and the under-the-radar risk nobody is talking about.

Links:

How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond

Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

0:00 Intro: Welcome back Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report & author of "How to Listen When Markets Speak"

1:21 Private credit: is this cycle's subprime already here?

7:30 The Trump off ramp: 2025 vs. 2026 and what's different this time

9:43 Stagflation: sticky energy prices, slowing growth, and the TACO trade

13:14 The Fed's next move — hike or cut?

15:30 The great migration: from financial assets to hard assets

16:58 Mag7 double-digit drawdowns and the rotation playing out now

19:36 Is there a relationship between energy costs and the private credit crisis?

22:41 Gold, silver and precious metals — tourists flushed out, time to buy

26:13 First ever Bitcoin buy — the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio and why now

30:10 The under-the-radar risk: UK fiscal crisis and bond vigilantes

32:30 US fiscal picture: $39 trillion in debt and the dollar's secular decline

36:48 Why anyone still owns long-term bonds — and why that's changing

39:21 Lehman lessons

43:09 Is private credit already a crisis?

48:00 Parting thoughts and how to find The Bear Traps Report

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says stagflation is now the base case — the Iran war has already cost American investors trillions in reduced investment value, Treasury auctions are weak, and mortgage rates are heading toward 7% if the 10-year hits 5%. Despite all of this, he still calls for a Fed cut in April, arguing the inflation is caused by war not monetary policy, and the Fed's real mandate is employment. He says we're heading toward a medium to long-term reset in risk premia, equities are out and debt is in, and that a recession by 2028 — "misery on the eights" — is becoming a near certainty. He's adding to gold and silver on the dip and if Annaly goes down he's buying more.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 - Intro and welcome Chris

0:47 - The Iran war and long-term damage to the global economy

2:18 - Are we headed toward more inflation?

2:41 - The term structure of interest rates is blowing out — here's why

4:02 - Making the case for a Fed cut despite $100 oil

4:26 - Stagflation is ahead

5:30 - The Fed's real mandate is employment — that's what forces the cut

6:40 - Whalen calls for a rate cut in April

7:51 - What difference would a cut actually make?

8:19 - Bonds are behaving like equities

9:08 - The $5.12 trillion cost of the Iran war to American investors

11:11 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now

13:03 - Why the market has stayed resilient despite all the headlines

13:53 - Private credit - Is Apollo facing a Lehman moment?

18:53 - Weak Treasury auctions — what that means for mortgage rates

20:06 - People don't want to understand what the war is doing to the economy

21:03 - This year is the opposite of last year — no easy trades

21:58 - Bob Elliott's world where long rates are closer to 4% than 2% — is that the new normal?

23:11 - If the 10-year hits 5% has the bond market lost trust in the Fed?

24:16 - Gold at $4,500 today — volatile but Whalen is staying long

25:26 - Viewer question: crypto-backed mortgages with Fannie and Freddie?

27:20 - Is recession now a near certainty?

28:07 - Viewer Mail: What are the downside risks to Annaly?

30:00 - Viewer Mail: Should you invest in Canadian banks?

31:49 - What Whalen is watching next week

Legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, makes his debut on The Julia La Roche Show for a wide-ranging conversation on the most pressing risks facing investors in 2026. Gundlach makes the case that we are living through a fundamental regime shift — one where the next recession brings rising long-term interest rates and a falling dollar, the exact opposite of what most investors expect. He breaks down why the private credit market is shaping up to be the defining financial stress of this cycle, drawing parallels to subprime in 2006 and revealing just how opaque and potentially dangerous the marks in that market really are. He also shares his current asset allocation, explains why American investors should have 100% of their equity exposure outside the US, and lays out two scenarios — dollar debasement or outright debt restructuring — for how America's unsustainable fiscal path eventually resolves. Plus: why he's avoiding general obligation munis in California, Illinois and New York, where gold goes from here, and his non-consensus prediction for the next presidential election.

Links:

Website: https://doubleline.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DoubleLineCapital

X: https://x.com/truthgundlach

Economist op-ed: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/12/13/americas-debt-cannot-keep-stacking-up-says-jeffrey-gundlach

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction — Jeffrey Gundlach on the debt burden and why something has to give

1:33 Big picture macro: secular shift from falling to rising interest rates

16:00 The case for 100% non-US stocks

17:30 Gundlach's current asset allocation: 40% non-US stocks, 25% fixed income, 15% commodities, rest in cash

22:00 Private credit: why it reminds him of subprime 2006 and why it’s “a total unmitigated disaster"

38:00 The Fed follows the 2-year Treasury — why the next Fed move actually be a hike?

42:30 Recession probability: at least 50% in 2026

47:00 Capital preservation mode: lowest risk positioning in DoubleLine's 17-year history

50:00 The gold call: from $2,915 to $4,000 and where it goes from here

53:00 The most dangerous force in investing: not fear or greed — need

56:00 California, Illinois, New York: avoid all general obligation munis

1:00:20 Wealth taxes, billionaire flight, and why it'll cost more to administer than it raises

1:01:00 Non-consensus prediction: three parties on the ballot in the next presidential election

1:02:00 The Fourth Turning reset — why 2030 is the timeline

Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory, makes the case that the U.S. no longer deserves its premium valuation — and that the biggest investing opportunity in decades is happening everywhere else.

Jay's framework, the Tri-Polar World thesis, argues that regional integration across Europe, Asia and the Americas is the dominant force shaping the global economy. Built on 30+ years of global macro experience, his view is that a global growth long cycle — driven by government and private sector spending on AI, defense and renewable energy — remains firmly intact, and that the Iran conflict may actually accelerate it.

His most provocative argument: the "EMification of America." The U.S. is increasingly exhibiting the volatile policymaking, concentrated power and institutional erosion typically associated with emerging markets — and yet still trades at a premium valuation. That, he says, is the disconnect that defines the next decade of investing.

Where does he see opportunity? Emerging markets — particularly China and Latin America — copper miners, commodities broadly, and the intersection of renewable energy and autonomous defense technology. He has held no long duration developed market sovereign debt for years.

Links:

Subscribe to Jay's Substack: https://jaypelosky.substack.com/

Learn more about TPW Advisory: https://pelosky.com/

Timestamps

0:00 — "The US doesn't deserve its premium valuation"

0:26 — Welcome Jay Pelosky

1:00 — Is the global growth long cycle being derailed by Iran?

4:00 — AI, defense & climate as existential government spending drivers

6:30 — Oil price sensitivity today vs. the 1970s — why it's different this time

9:10 — The contrarian take: Iran could actually boost global growth

14:20 — TACO Trump & the search for an off-ramp

18:06 — Why Iran is the best advertisement for renewable energy ever

19:55 — Secular shift: the baton of global equity leadership passing to EM

21:05 — Why 2025 was just year one of US underperformance

24:00 — China, ASEAN & the reduced dependence on the US consumer

25:00 — Europe forced to confront reality: the US is no longer an ally 26:18 — The petrodollar at risk; the yuan's rising role 28:41 — US valuation erosion: gradual, not a crash

32:08 — What is the "EMification of America"?

36:32 — The American investor dilemma: wanting America to win vs. global opportunity

38:45 — China within EM: rare earths, digital & physical power shift

41:00 — China's lead in renewables, embodied AI and automation

42:36 — China defeating deflation; potential US-China rapprochement

43:05 — Portfolio positioning: overweight equities & commodities

44:00 — Specific ETF ideas: COPX, ILF, SMH and China equities

47:10 — Parting thoughts & where to find Jay

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen says the private credit unwind is now spreading to consumer credit funds and warns that retirees and pension funds will feel the pain most — while the firms that sold these products face devastating reputational damage. On the Fed, he calls Trump's handling of Powell "truly incredible, almost like he wants to screw it up" and warns Powell could remain Fed Chair for three more years if Trump doesn't back down. He says the Fed is late, oil above $100 is not a monetary problem but a political one, and that if Trump puts Marines in the Persian Gulf it could effectively end his presidency. He's buying gold and silver on the dip and watching the K-shaped economy crack wider.

Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction and welcome

0:52 - Consumer credit

3:16 - Big banks now offering ways to short private credit

4:53 - How private equity evolved into private credit — and why quality collapsed

7:25 - "Risk Concealed" — SPE loans, PIK structures and hidden bank exposure

9:26 - How do you know if YOU are exposed? You don't.

11:29 - "We're all exposed" — what bank disclosure actually tells you

13:12 - The opacity problem — loan by loan, you can't see it

13:58 - Will everyday investors feel this? Retirees and pension funds will

15:25 - The Fed — rates unchanged, Powell is staying

16:11 - Trump "almost like he wants to screw it up" — the Powell/Warsh debacle

19:06 - Powell could be Fed Chair for three more years — here's why

20:47 - Could Trump have gotten the rate cuts he wanted if he'd handled this differently?

21:50 - If Trump puts Marines in the Persian Gulf "that's the end of his presidency"

23:18 - All roads lead to inflation — and it's not monetary

25:19 - Is the Fed late? "Chronically late for the past 10 years"

26:27 - The K-shaped economy — the bottom half is already in recession

27:38 - Luxury hotels booming, economy hotels empty — the data tells the story

29:58 - Inflation and affordability will decide the midterms

30:29 - FHFA rolls back climate insurance rules — mostly a press release

31:13 - UWMC/TWO — a cash offer emerged, Whalen says Two Harbors goes to auction

33:43 - Viewer Mail: AGNC and mortgage REITs — what to own for income

35:41 - Viewer Mail: Why is gold dropping? Whalen is buying the dip

37:15 - What Whalen is watching next week