Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, lays out his thesis for a "Goldilocks" first half of 2026, characterized by growth inflecting higher alongside continued disinflation — a very equity-positive environment. However, Warren identifies four key risks testing the market's delicate balance: vanishing MAG7 buybacks due to AI capex, software's existential disruption, Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination (which he calls "the worst pick for investors"), and precious metals volatility. Despite these headwinds, Warren argues the most bearish narratives are overdone. He notes that software has moved from overvalued to fairly valued, that post-GFC markets have returned double digits in every year with buyback contractions, and that extreme return dispersion near all-time highs historically resolves in six-month rallies. His core investment thesis: "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted" — rotate from bonds into commodities as the ideal portfolio hedge. Warren maintains his equity overweight, expects the bull case to remain intact through H1, and sees the recent rotation as healthy rather than ominous.

Links:

https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/

https://x.com/WarrenPies

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome back Warren Pies

1:16 Macro picture: The secular debasement regime

3:30 Goldilocks for H1 2026 — growth up, inflation down

5:38 Four risks to the delicate balance

12:34 Is the market healthier than people think? The rotation argument

16:38 Software went from overvalued to fairly valued

17:26 Markets at record highs

18:30 Extreme dispersion under the surface

22:18 Sentiment: More pessimistic than you'd expect near ATHs

30:11 The four risks: Buybacks, software, Warsh, and precious metals

30:52 Commodities thesis: When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted

37:38 Kevin Warsh and the Fed

45:22 10-year

49:53 The economy

53:33 Where to find Warren and parting thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen discusses the structural conflict between President Trump and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: Trump wants home prices to stay high, while Warsh wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet — and "someone's going to be disappointed." Chris warns that resuming quantitative tightening could repeat the 2018 repo crisis, especially concerning given Morgan Stanley paid 45% for repo funding in Q4 2025. He breaks down the Penny Mac disaster, where Bill Pulte's $200 billion MBS buyback plan caused the stock to crash from $150 to $90 in a day, explaining why "when politicians play with markets, bad things happen." On housing, Chris argues there's no easy policy fix for affordability — prices simply need to fall 10-20% to normalize. He declares last year's speculation wave over, noting "we just ran out of runway," and advises investors to shift toward defensive positioning and stocks with cash flows. Chris remains bullish on gold and silver long-term despite recent pullbacks, urging viewers to buy the dips.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome

1:13 Last year was a year of aspiration — reality is setting in

2:30 Gold and silver pullback — Chris is buying the dips

4:19 Speculative money rotating from crypto to metals (Hyperliquid)

5:00 Still bullish on gold and silver long-term

7:11 Kevin Warsh and the yield curve problem

8:20 Politicians can't control long-term rates — but they keep trying

9:43 Can Warsh shrink the balance sheet without breaking something?

11:46 Trump vs. Warsh: Someone's going to be disappointed

13:23 Significant number of realtors didn't do deals last year

14:38 Housing consolidation and overcapacity

15:26 Is housing a leading or lagging indicator?

17:04 The only fix: Home prices need to fall 10-20%

19:36 The Penny Mac bombshell explained

21:40 "Our leaders are not serious people"

22:53 What would smart housing policy actually look like?

24:35 Theme for 2026: Risk off and defensive positioning

25:00 Preserving capital over speculation

26:21 "We just ran out of runway" — the end of the speculation wave

28:11 Viewer mail: Congress stuck between a rock and a hard place

29:12 The two bad choices: Hyperinflation or less growth

31:14 Americans hate paying taxes — and seeing money wasted

32:20 Closing thoughts

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, lays out his big theme for 2026: rotation. George argues that the debasement trade is the dominant macro narrative, with the bill coming due for decades of reckless fiscal and monetary policy. He calls the 60/40 portfolio dead, urging investors to dump bonds and buy gold, noting that gold miners could double in 12 months if prices hold. He makes the case that the AI trade is over. Noble sees energy as one of the most compelling opportunities. He expects emerging markets and foreign equities to continue outperforming the US, small caps to beat large caps, and the equal-weight S&P to trounce the cap-weighted index. His bottom line for investors: get out of bonds, buy gold, add energy, put money abroad, and switch from cap-weighted to equal-weight.

Links:

George Noble's Independent Research Conference: https://noble-capevents.com/

X: https://x.com/gnoble79

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and intro to George Noble

1:17 The debasement trade: The big macro picture

3:42 The bill is coming due for decades of reckless policy

5:10 The US government's math doesn't work — bond yields way too low

6:55 2026 theme: Rotation — don't worship the altar of price

7:06 The macro backdrop and where to be allocated

7:33 US exceptionalism is fading — fiscal pulse now in Europe

8:45 China outperforming the US — and it's going to continue

9:48 Rotation out of US dollar-based assets

11:27 Long bond headed north of 5%? Implications for housing

13:27 Credit spreads tight, inflationary boom possible

14:50 The bond market measured in gold — it's crashing

16:26 The 60/40 portfolio is dead

16:55 Inflation: People don't live on rate of change, they live on prices

18:55 The K-shaped economy and rising prices everywhere

20:41 Gold update: You cannot be bullish enough

22:30 The song remains the same — macro drivers still in play

24:04 Gold miners could double in 12 months

25:21 Don't get caught up in short-term thinking

26:45 The Dunning-Kruger Institute of Finance

28:48 The death of speculation

29:26 Is it a stock picker's market again?

30:30 The Japan analogy: MAG 7 is today's Japan 1989

32:16 Just avoid MAG 7 and you'll outperform

33:23 Recency bias and why consensus is stuck

34:42 George is not bearish — he's rotating

35:12 Energy: Only 3% of the S&P — massively out of favor

37:46 Oil prices and the case for energy equities

39:14 Venezuela is a nothing burger — fade the hot takes

40:41 AI trade is a short: Nvidia, Tesla, software

43:05 SaaSmageddon and ServiceNow at 73x earnings

45:51 Rotation: The theme in one word

46:11 What should the average investor do?

48:36 The playbook: Equal weight, gold, energy, foreign markets, no bonds

49:19 March 11th conference

53:00 Closing

Alex Gurevich, founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Gurevich discuss his updated thesis on interest rates, deflation, and the forces shaping markets. He argues that zero interest rates are "not off the table" — and that the probability is far higher than the market is pricing. He sees labor market deterioration happening quietly under the surface, warning that "the less visible it is, the worse it's probably going to be" because policymakers won't act until it's too late. Unlike the consensus worried about inflation, Alex is firmly in the deflation camp, though he notes any deflation can be countered by fiscal stimulus — he just doesn't think the government will act aggressively enough given how burned they were by the post-COVID inflation. He also discusses his newly released second edition of "The Next Perfect Trade," explaining why he kept the original text intact to maintain intellectual honesty about what worked and what didn't over the past decade. He declares the 40-year bond bull market "definitively over," shares his framework on carry as an underappreciated edge, and offers a fascinating take on AI's future energy demands potentially exceeding the output of the sun.

Links:

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Next-Perfect-Trade-Magic-Necessity/dp/1544550014/

X: https://x.com/agurevich23

Website: https://honteinv.com/

0:00 Welcome and congratulations on the second edition

1:19 The Next Perfect Trade — second edition out now

2:01 Setting the table: The macro view today

3:30 All the fireworks have been in precious metals

4:08 Interest rates are "pinned in confusion"

4:45 Alex's view: Leaning toward zero rates

5:40 Labor market deterioration — the less visible, the worse it will be

7:20 The behavior of rates during Fed cutting cycles

8:58 What zero rates would mean for the economy

9:36 The relationship between stocks, jobs, rates, and growth is broken

11:30 Could we have strong growth and weak jobs simultaneously?

13:13 Deflation, not inflation

14:10 The pendulum: Deflation, then too much stimulus, then inflation again

15:25 Recency bias from COVID stimulus keeping government cautious

16:02 Precious metals: What does the move signal?

18:41 Why the second edition? Intellectual honesty

20:29 Admitting mistakes: "It was arrogant of me"

23:12 Growth as a trader — recognizing your weaknesses

24:08 The one chart to rule them all — is the 40-year bond bull market over?

25:41 Bull markets break up before they break down

27:19 The 2020 bond breakout should have been a warning

29:47 The underappreciated power of carry

32:04 Be the casino, not the gambler

33:30 The corporate borrowing rate indicator

36:27 Why the indicator broke down in 2021-23

38:26 Has the macro investing world changed?

39:52 The most underappreciated force in macro right now

42:46 AI's energy demand will overwhelm all sources — even fusion

45:18 Is energy the trade?

46:55 The perfect trade: Japan is getting interesting

48:40 Where to find Alex and parting thoughts

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, calling him "the only choice" and a "classic hawk" who won't be afraid to lecture Congress on the link between deficits and inflation — something no Fed chair has done in 30 years. Chris explains why Warsh will likely shrink the balance sheet while giving Trump one or two rate cuts, and predicts the nomination may actually keep Powell on the board through 2028 just to deprive Trump of another conservative seat. On markets, Chris sees a more boring year ahead after 2025's extraordinary run, with gold and silver due for a 10-15% correction — though the bull market isn't over. He notes that crypto platforms like Hyperliquid are now trading precious metals, signaling money flowing from crypto into the "shiny object that's moving most." Chris also warns that private equity is becoming a major risk, with one in five firms now illiquid or in default, representing hundreds of billions in potential bank losses.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome

1:09 Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair — Chris's reaction

2:15 Warsh will have to build consensus on the FOMC

3:01 Warsh won't be afraid to link deficits and inflation

3:15 Will Warsh be more hawkish?

4:26 Warsh during the financial crisis — what to expect

5:25 The martyrdom of Jerome Powell: Yellen and Powell did too much

6:04 Hard decisions the market won't like

6:15 A conservative Fed puts pressure back on Congress

7:21 Will Trump like Warsh lecturing on deficits?

7:49 Powell refusing to say if he'll stay as governor

9:32 Is staying on the board political?

10:32 What will Powell's legacy be?

12:09 The state of the Fed's balance sheet: Poor

13:21 Central banks should keep assets short — the Fed didn't

14:15 Powell's comments on the deficit being "unsustainable"

16:08 Markets: S&P briefly hit 7000

17:47 Credit-sensitive stocks under pressure, metals outperforming

18:41 Labor market and layoffs: Amazon, UPS, FedEx

19:19 Personnel costs and inflation

19:42 Gold to $5,600, silver to $110 — correction coming?

20:50 Crypto platforms now trading gold and silver

22:21 Central bank gold holdings now exceed foreign Treasury holdings

24:26 Where Chris is putting his money

24:43 WGA 50 bank rankings preview

26:57 Private equity risk: 1 in 5 firms illiquid or in default

28:29 AI companies leveraged to their eyebrows

28:50 Viewer mail: Taking profits on Annaly?

32:29 Parting thoughts: Earnings, Warsh, and what's ahead

34:47 Closing

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, breaks down why the Fed's decision to pause was both premature and political, arguing Powell is "committing policy errors to quietly dig at the administration." She explains why the Fed should have cut today — and why she believes we need 100 basis points of cuts given deteriorating labor market data that Powell is choosing to ignore. Danielle unpacks the DOJ subpoena drama, revealing that betting markets dropped Powell's odds of leaving by August from 90% to 60% after the charges, and she believes he's now "enjoying the cat and mouse" with Trump. She revisits her open letter calling for the FOMC to elect Chris Waller as chair, explains why Rick Rieder would be "inviting the fox into the hen house," and shares her bold prediction: unemployment will have a 6 handle within a year. Plus, she discusses the hidden stress signals in Buy Now Pay Later data and why gold is behaving like a "meme stock."

Links:

Danielle's open letter: https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/

Danielle's open letter part 2: https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/22/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-ii-public/

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome

1:05 The Powell subpoena: Danielle's reaction

3:35 Betting markets: Powell leaving odds dropped

4:51 Powell is the cat, Trump is the mouse

5:54 Why Powell is being political by NOT cutting rates

6:35 How Powell moved the goalposts on rate probability

7:32 The contradiction: Integrity vs. ignoring the American people

8:33 Financial conditions are easy because of passive investing, not the Fed

9:19 The shutdown has affected data integrity

10:05 Outlook for the year: Rate cuts coming?

10:50 Conference Board labor differential — recession signal

12:06 Should he have cut today? Yes. We need 100 basis points of cuts

12:52 Open Letter Part Two: Why the FOMC should have elected Chris Waller

15:03 Rick Rieder: Inviting the fox into the hen house?

16:34 Who will be the next Fed chair?

17:35 What we don't understand about Fed chair transitions

19:04 The questions reporters should have asked Powell

21:29 Hidden signal: Google searches for "file unemployment" keep rising

22:28 Buy Now Pay Later for dental bills and utilities — the stress is real

25:41 Gen Z risk appetite and the environment that shapes investors

26:45 Gold is a meme now

29:01 DoubleLine roundtable: Long utilities, short financials

31:14 Commercial real estate capitulation and bankruptcies

32:14 Bold prediction: Unemployment will have a 6 handle by next year

33:20 Parting thoughts: Don't forget about your neighbors

33:45 Closing

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's Davos speech, noting that despite promises on housing affordability, the administration has no real plan to lower prices — and Trump explicitly said he doesn't want home prices to fall. Chris explains why that won't matter: hot markets like San Diego and Florida are already cooling, and he predicts a significant correction by 2028 that could push prices back to 2020-21 levels, leaving every mortgage made since COVID underwater. He warns that Trump will "run the economy hot" to win the midterms, with consequences to pay afterward. On rates, Chris explains why long-term yields keep rising despite Fed cuts and what happens if a new Fed chairman loses an FOMC vote. He also discusses gold's march toward $5,000, calling it "the return of gold" as central banks worldwide reverse 70 years of policy, and weighs in on the FDIC's approval of Ford and GM to establish deposit-taking banks.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira802

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and intro

0:50 Trump at Davos: Greenland walkback and housing

2:55 The two sides of housing: Owners vs. buyers

4:00 401(k) withdrawals for down payments — does it help?

5:00 Why stoking demand pushes prices higher

6:17 Hot markets cool first: San Diego, Florida, Carolinas

7:58 Demographics and housing: Boomers vs. millennials

8:37 Rate cuts coming and the 2028 correction

9:35 What happens if prices fall 20%? Every post-COVID loan underwater

10:10 Signs to watch for a broader market shift in 2026

12:36 Why long-term rates rise when the Fed cuts

14:15 How lenders are feeling right now

15:14 Gold closing in on $5,000

16:28 Trump will run the economy hot for the midterms

18:05 You pay for it after the election

18:51 What if the new Fed chair loses an FOMC vote?

21:00 What should the Fed actually be doing?

22:45 The asymmetry of gold and silver investments

26:32 The return of gold: Central banks reverse 70 years of policy

27:06 Peter Schiff's crisis call — does Chris buy it?

28:36 FDIC approves Ford and GM banks — what it means

32:46 Viewer mail: Gold as a hedge for real estate

33:45 Viewer mail: Stable coins debate

35:30 Closing

In this special in-person interview, Jim Rickards breaks down why the Trump administration is far more strategic than the media portrays, explaining the "flood the zone" tactic and Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" approach to bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio. Jim dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, revealing that foreign central banks are not dumping Treasuries and that the real risk lies in the Eurodollar market and the $1 quadrillion derivatives system underpinning global finance. He warns that stablecoins are quietly hoarding Treasury bills needed for collateral — and the risk of fraud waiting to blow up. On gold, Jim explains why $5,000 is just the beginning, making the case for $10,000 to $25,000 based on historical precedent from the 1970s when the dollar lost 94% of its value measured in gold. He also offers a bold prediction: the potential breakup of NATO as geopolitical alliances fracture under pressure.

More about Rickards:

Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.

Links:

http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/

https://x.com/RealJimRickards

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

2:33 Why the second Trump term is different from the first

5:25 The Heritage Foundation and Project 2025

6:45 Executive orders and legislative wins

8:20 Federal courts and the Supreme Court battles

9:49 The economy: Is it really chaos?

11:32 The national debt: Why $39 trillion isn't the number to watch

13:45 The debt-to-GDP ratio explained

15:30 The Keynesian multiplier and diminishing returns

17:38 How we fixed the debt ratio after WWII (1945-1980)

18:36 Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" strategy

19:19 The debasement trade: Why it's a false narrative

21:15 Are foreign central banks dumping Treasuries? (No)

23:15 What triggers a financial panic

24:45 How the Fed actually "prints money"

26:30 The Eurodollar market: Where real money comes from

28:00 The $1 quadrillion derivatives market

30:15 Stablecoins: The hidden risk in crypto

33:24 Tether's commercial paper problem

35:37 Gold: Why it's really moving

37:45 The Russian asset freeze and its unintended consequences

42:26 Gold does well in deflation too

45:48 The first Pentagon financial war game (2009)

49:54 Gold's trajectory: $10,000 to $25,000 or higher

51:45 The 1970s: When gold went up 2,700%

55:30 Anchoring bias and why $1,000 jumps get easier

56:33 Jim Rogers on the 50% retracement rule

58:49 Silver: Precious metal meets industrial input

63:21 Bold prediction: The potential breakup of NATO

67:34 Parting thoughts: True diversification