In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen analyzes the Blue Owl situation as part of a broader pattern in private credit. He argues that private credit firms purchasing insurance companies is "the fox getting into the hen house" since insurance assets are held at book value rather than marked to market, beyond easy regulator reach. Chris makes the case that public markets are superior due to transparency and liquidity, while private markets mainly benefit Wall Street through higher fees, and predicts roughly half of private equity managers will struggle to raise capital due to poor performance. From his Washington visit, Chris notes redistricting has left few genuinely competitive House seats, discusses a Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act enforcement, and predicts 2028 will be Rahm Emanuel versus Marco Rubio. He explains Vice Chair Michelle Bowman's proposal to roll back Basel III mortgage restrictions that have discouraged bank housing finance for 15 years. On silver, Chris describes Chinese exchanges imposing trading limits due to supply constraints, commercial buyers sourcing from artisanal mines, and potential COMEX cash settlement, noting he continues adding to gold and silver positions despite volatility.

Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricing

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Preview: The fox getting into the hen house

0:38 Welcome back — Blue Owl and the private credit blowup

1:23 Chris's reaction to Blue Owl restricting redemptions

3:19 Why this matters for retail investors and retirees

4:21 Two reasons this matters — volatility and annuity risk

5:59 How many people truly understand this risk?

6:47 It's not a headline issue until it becomes one

9:22 The Modigliani-Miller Theorem explained

11:12 Do you dabble in private markets at all?

12:18 How do you see this ultimately playing out?

13:05 Half of all PE managers will go out of business

15:12 Do you get pushback from the industry?

16:06 Moving to DC — upcoming midterms

16:45 The disconnect between media narrative and reality

18:22 Supreme Court case on Voting Rights Act

20:33 Base case for midterms — who takes the House?

22:42 Trump administration's communication problems

23:30 Bold call: Rahm Emanuel for Democratic nomination 2028

24:56 The case for Rahm Emanuel

27:09 Marco Rubio vs Rahm Emanuel prediction

28:23 Michelle Bowman's significant speech on Basel III

30:07 How Basel III distorted the mortgage market for 15 years

32:15 What's going on in silver specifically? 34:55

The silver squeeze — producers going to artisanal mines

36:01 Still long gold and silver, adding positions

37:01 What Chris is watching next week

In this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, calls the Federal Reserve "borderline cruel" after FOMC minutes revealed several participants wanted rate hikes despite Americans' financial wellbeing hitting record lows. Danielle argues we're already in a labor market recession that "won't be acknowledged for years but is undeniable to the people who are in it," pointing to unprecedented data: 12 consecutive months of negative payroll revisions, 419,000 net job losses when excluding education and health services, seasonal adjustment anomalies adding 140,000 phantom jobs in January, and unemployment survey response rates at record lows making the data unreliable. She highlights that Truflation shows inflation at just 0.7% while the Fed maintains hawkish rhetoric, that 52% of college graduates are underemployed with another graduating class arriving in two months, and that AI is destroying entry-level jobs in finance, accounting, and architecture without any retraining programs in place. Danielle warns about the societal implications of Gen Z and millennials (52.5% of voters) increasingly using buy now pay later for basic necessities like medical bills and utilities, while others use it for vacations with no intention of paying it back. She questions whether Kevin Warsh will hold to his stated principles about shrinking the Fed's balance sheet or cave to market pressure like Powell did in 2018, and reveals that Fed governor Michael Barr is already hinting at expanded social safety nets or UBI to address AI-driven unemployment. Danielle refuses to "gaslight Americans" about the economy and emphasizes the urgent need to think about retraining workers and the societal implications of mass youth unemployment.

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth

0:52 FOMC minutes: Several participants want rate hikes

1:46 Americans' financial wellbeing at record lows — the disconnect

3:31 Truflation at 0.7% — what the Fed is missing

5:27 What's the Fed missing on the labor side?

7:06 Labor recession in plain sight — concentrated in non-cyclical sectors

8:28 Buy now pay later for medical and dental bills

9:32 Gen Z and millennials: Taking on debt with no intention to pay

11:00 A revolt against the system?

12:15 The Fed didn't listen to your open letters

13:40 Rate hike talk while small business borrowing costs are "prohibitively tight"

14:59 Fed being sanguine on credit delinquencies

16:14 What would be the responsible thing for the Fed to do?

17:12 "It's getting personal" — Americans worried about losing their own jobs

18:02 52% of college graduates are underemployed

18:42 Is this AI or just an excuse?

20:08 What happens in 2028 if the pendulum swings?

21:32 Kevin Warsh — will he stick to his principles?

24:01 Is the Fed too beholden to the market?

25:15 Unemployment survey response rate at record lows

27:23 Base case for the economy — labor market recession continues 28:56 What keeps you up at night and what makes you hopeful?

In this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, predicts that over the next 18 months, markets will see both new highs and new lows amid heightened volatility. Ted currently holds 50% of his portfolio in short-term Treasuries (recently extending some to 3-year), waiting for opportunities as he notes that second years of presidential terms historically return just 1% and typically experience mid-year declines. He argues that financial repression—holding rates low while letting inflation run—is the only way out of America's $40 trillion debt crisis, which is why he's positioned in hard assets including gold, silver, miners, energy, and commodities. Ted recently trimmed silver positions after a 200% move in 2025, expecting consolidation back to $50-60 (from $76), and warns that hidden leverage is at record levels: margin debt as a percentage of market cap is at all-time highs, high-net-worth investors have massive off-balance-sheet securities-based lines of credit, and leveraged ETFs have exploded fourfold. He's critical of private equity for overpaying for companies and using secondary funds as a "gimmick," and predicts this will be a year for active stock pickers as the regime shifts from passive buying to passive selling when baby boomers (averaging age 71 this year) begin withdrawing funds.

Links:

Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors

X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome back Ted Oakley

1:14 Big picture macro view — dislocation since mid-October

2:59 Year 2 of presidential terms historically poor performers

4:05 Why second years are difficult

5:23 How to prepare for drawdowns

6:51 Why Ted holds 50% in short-term Treasuries

8:21 Can't own long bonds for the next 10 years

9:17 Are we past the point of no return on debt?

11:04 What $1 trillion really means — $100k/hour for 1,100 years

12:03 What's the end game?

13:02 Financial repression — the only way out 13:34 Regime change to hard assets

14:19 Gold and silver — took some profits

16:25 Trading in and out vs. staying long

18:21 Price levels for getting back into silver and gold

19:32 Regime change for hard, durable assets

21:06 Are we due for a major pullback or bear market?

23:09 Hidden risks — margin debt at record levels

25:12 High net worth debt hidden off balance sheet

27:08 Private credit and private equity — trouble brewing

29:40 Would the Fed intervene in a generational bear market?

31:09 The thesis on oil

33:22 Kevin Warsh as Fed chair — Ted's reaction

34:24 The Fed doesn't really matter for stock picking

34:52 Where are you finding opportunities today?

36:58 At what level would you deploy the 50% cash?

38:25 Takeaway for investors this year

39:54 Active stock pickers will outperform

41:05 Prediction for a year from now

42:22 Where to find Ted and closing thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen argues that the AI narrative is stalling and we're witnessing a sustained rotation from tech, AI, and crypto into safer, income-generating stocks. Chris points out that JPMorgan — arguably the best-run bank in America — has fallen from the top of his rankings to 87th place in just six months, a dramatic shift showing managers are rotating into smaller cap names. He describes this as a "manic, momentum-driven market" where the extraordinary gains of 2025 are now being given back. Chris is skeptical of both the AI and crypto narratives, calling them "driven by Wall Street hype," and notes that crypto is suffering specifically because the AI story has broken down. For 2026, he advises looking for safety and income rather than growth, remains long gold and silver despite volatility, and cautions that "this year is going to be a much more difficult year" for most sectors. On housing and the Fed, Chris lays out what Kevin Warsh and Scott Besant must do: swap the Fed's $2 trillion MBS portfolio to Treasury, restructure low-coupon securities into CMOs, and bury them in insurance company balance sheets to unlock the housing market.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and intro

01:00 AI narrative stalling, tech's worst week since November

1:59 Is this a healthy correction or something bigger?

4:58 JPMorgan now ranks 87th — what does that tell you?

6:36 Small caps rule right now — managers rotating to safety

7:30 What does it mean if managers won't own the best bank in America?

8:30 The link between crypto and AI

11:32 Chris is skeptical of both AI and crypto narratives

11:57 What's the next legitimate growth story for the US?

13:15 All that trapped private equity capital in tech

14:55 Fannie and Freddie earnings — but where's the growth?

17:00 What Warsh and Bessent need to do to fix housing

19:00 Should the Fed engage in fiscal issues?

21:54 The Fed's real mandate — keeping the Treasury market open

23:00 What should Warsh do with the MBS on the balance sheet?

24:58 Why we haven't seen a typical crash cycle

26:17 What's the trade for 2026? Safety and income

28:08 PennyMac's mistake — buying Cenlar

31:58 Viewer mail

34:39 Gold and silver portfolio — lots of opportunity despite volatility

35:00 Closing

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, lays out his thesis for a "Goldilocks" first half of 2026, characterized by growth inflecting higher alongside continued disinflation — a very equity-positive environment. However, Warren identifies four key risks testing the market's delicate balance: vanishing MAG7 buybacks due to AI capex, software's existential disruption, Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination (which he calls "the worst pick for investors"), and precious metals volatility. Despite these headwinds, Warren argues the most bearish narratives are overdone. He notes that software has moved from overvalued to fairly valued, that post-GFC markets have returned double digits in every year with buyback contractions, and that extreme return dispersion near all-time highs historically resolves in six-month rallies. His core investment thesis: "When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted" — rotate from bonds into commodities as the ideal portfolio hedge. Warren maintains his equity overweight, expects the bull case to remain intact through H1, and sees the recent rotation as healthy rather than ominous.

Links:

https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/

https://x.com/WarrenPies

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome back Warren Pies

1:16 Macro picture: The secular debasement regime

3:30 Goldilocks for H1 2026 — growth up, inflation down

5:38 Four risks to the delicate balance

12:34 Is the market healthier than people think? The rotation argument

16:38 Software went from overvalued to fairly valued

17:26 Markets at record highs

18:30 Extreme dispersion under the surface

22:18 Sentiment: More pessimistic than you'd expect near ATHs

30:11 The four risks: Buybacks, software, Warsh, and precious metals

30:52 Commodities thesis: When disruption is the risk, own that which cannot be disrupted

37:38 Kevin Warsh and the Fed

45:22 10-year

49:53 The economy

53:33 Where to find Warren and parting thoughts

In this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen discusses the structural conflict between President Trump and incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: Trump wants home prices to stay high, while Warsh wants to shrink the Fed's balance sheet — and "someone's going to be disappointed." Chris warns that resuming quantitative tightening could repeat the 2018 repo crisis, especially concerning given Morgan Stanley paid 45% for repo funding in Q4 2025. He breaks down the Penny Mac disaster, where Bill Pulte's $200 billion MBS buyback plan caused the stock to crash from $150 to $90 in a day, explaining why "when politicians play with markets, bad things happen." On housing, Chris argues there's no easy policy fix for affordability — prices simply need to fall 10-20% to normalize. He declares last year's speculation wave over, noting "we just ran out of runway," and advises investors to shift toward defensive positioning and stocks with cash flows. Chris remains bullish on gold and silver long-term despite recent pullbacks, urging viewers to buy the dips.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome

1:13 Last year was a year of aspiration — reality is setting in

2:30 Gold and silver pullback — Chris is buying the dips

4:19 Speculative money rotating from crypto to metals (Hyperliquid)

5:00 Still bullish on gold and silver long-term

7:11 Kevin Warsh and the yield curve problem

8:20 Politicians can't control long-term rates — but they keep trying

9:43 Can Warsh shrink the balance sheet without breaking something?

11:46 Trump vs. Warsh: Someone's going to be disappointed

13:23 Significant number of realtors didn't do deals last year

14:38 Housing consolidation and overcapacity

15:26 Is housing a leading or lagging indicator?

17:04 The only fix: Home prices need to fall 10-20%

19:36 The Penny Mac bombshell explained

21:40 "Our leaders are not serious people"

22:53 What would smart housing policy actually look like?

24:35 Theme for 2026: Risk off and defensive positioning

25:00 Preserving capital over speculation

26:21 "We just ran out of runway" — the end of the speculation wave

28:11 Viewer mail: Congress stuck between a rock and a hard place

29:12 The two bad choices: Hyperinflation or less growth

31:14 Americans hate paying taxes — and seeing money wasted

32:20 Closing thoughts

George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, lays out his big theme for 2026: rotation. George argues that the debasement trade is the dominant macro narrative, with the bill coming due for decades of reckless fiscal and monetary policy. He calls the 60/40 portfolio dead, urging investors to dump bonds and buy gold, noting that gold miners could double in 12 months if prices hold. He makes the case that the AI trade is over. Noble sees energy as one of the most compelling opportunities. He expects emerging markets and foreign equities to continue outperforming the US, small caps to beat large caps, and the equal-weight S&P to trounce the cap-weighted index. His bottom line for investors: get out of bonds, buy gold, add energy, put money abroad, and switch from cap-weighted to equal-weight.

Links:

George Noble's Independent Research Conference: https://noble-capevents.com/

X: https://x.com/gnoble79

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and intro to George Noble

1:17 The debasement trade: The big macro picture

3:42 The bill is coming due for decades of reckless policy

5:10 The US government's math doesn't work — bond yields way too low

6:55 2026 theme: Rotation — don't worship the altar of price

7:06 The macro backdrop and where to be allocated

7:33 US exceptionalism is fading — fiscal pulse now in Europe

8:45 China outperforming the US — and it's going to continue

9:48 Rotation out of US dollar-based assets

11:27 Long bond headed north of 5%? Implications for housing

13:27 Credit spreads tight, inflationary boom possible

14:50 The bond market measured in gold — it's crashing

16:26 The 60/40 portfolio is dead

16:55 Inflation: People don't live on rate of change, they live on prices

18:55 The K-shaped economy and rising prices everywhere

20:41 Gold update: You cannot be bullish enough

22:30 The song remains the same — macro drivers still in play

24:04 Gold miners could double in 12 months

25:21 Don't get caught up in short-term thinking

26:45 The Dunning-Kruger Institute of Finance

28:48 The death of speculation

29:26 Is it a stock picker's market again?

30:30 The Japan analogy: MAG 7 is today's Japan 1989

32:16 Just avoid MAG 7 and you'll outperform

33:23 Recency bias and why consensus is stuck

34:42 George is not bearish — he's rotating

35:12 Energy: Only 3% of the S&P — massively out of favor

37:46 Oil prices and the case for energy equities

39:14 Venezuela is a nothing burger — fade the hot takes

40:41 AI trade is a short: Nvidia, Tesla, software

43:05 SaaSmageddon and ServiceNow at 73x earnings

45:51 Rotation: The theme in one word

46:11 What should the average investor do?

48:36 The playbook: Equal weight, gold, energy, foreign markets, no bonds

49:19 March 11th conference

53:00 Closing

Alex Gurevich, founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Gurevich discuss his updated thesis on interest rates, deflation, and the forces shaping markets. He argues that zero interest rates are "not off the table" — and that the probability is far higher than the market is pricing. He sees labor market deterioration happening quietly under the surface, warning that "the less visible it is, the worse it's probably going to be" because policymakers won't act until it's too late. Unlike the consensus worried about inflation, Alex is firmly in the deflation camp, though he notes any deflation can be countered by fiscal stimulus — he just doesn't think the government will act aggressively enough given how burned they were by the post-COVID inflation. He also discusses his newly released second edition of "The Next Perfect Trade," explaining why he kept the original text intact to maintain intellectual honesty about what worked and what didn't over the past decade. He declares the 40-year bond bull market "definitively over," shares his framework on carry as an underappreciated edge, and offers a fascinating take on AI's future energy demands potentially exceeding the output of the sun.

Links:

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Next-Perfect-Trade-Magic-Necessity/dp/1544550014/

X: https://x.com/agurevich23

Website: https://honteinv.com/

0:00 Welcome and congratulations on the second edition

1:19 The Next Perfect Trade — second edition out now

2:01 Setting the table: The macro view today

3:30 All the fireworks have been in precious metals

4:08 Interest rates are "pinned in confusion"

4:45 Alex's view: Leaning toward zero rates

5:40 Labor market deterioration — the less visible, the worse it will be

7:20 The behavior of rates during Fed cutting cycles

8:58 What zero rates would mean for the economy

9:36 The relationship between stocks, jobs, rates, and growth is broken

11:30 Could we have strong growth and weak jobs simultaneously?

13:13 Deflation, not inflation

14:10 The pendulum: Deflation, then too much stimulus, then inflation again

15:25 Recency bias from COVID stimulus keeping government cautious

16:02 Precious metals: What does the move signal?

18:41 Why the second edition? Intellectual honesty

20:29 Admitting mistakes: "It was arrogant of me"

23:12 Growth as a trader — recognizing your weaknesses

24:08 The one chart to rule them all — is the 40-year bond bull market over?

25:41 Bull markets break up before they break down

27:19 The 2020 bond breakout should have been a warning

29:47 The underappreciated power of carry

32:04 Be the casino, not the gambler

33:30 The corporate borrowing rate indicator

36:27 Why the indicator broke down in 2021-23

38:26 Has the macro investing world changed?

39:52 The most underappreciated force in macro right now

42:46 AI's energy demand will overwhelm all sources — even fusion

45:18 Is energy the trade?

46:55 The perfect trade: Japan is getting interesting

48:40 Where to find Alex and parting thoughts