Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for the debut of his weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Markets hit all-time highs this week before pulling back sharply as the Fed ended quantitative tightening amid growing liquidity stress in money markets—echoing the dangerous conditions of November 2018 when Chairman Powell nearly crashed the system. Whalen warns we're seeing the same warning signs: tightening liquidity, basis trades breaking down, and a Fed flying blind without proper tools to measure reserve availability. Meanwhile, cracks are appearing across markets—from Bitcoin's retreat below $100k to BlackRock's stunning 100% writedown on private debt it valued at par just weeks ago.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction: New weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen"

0:42 - Markets this week: biggest decline since April

2:34 - Treasury General Account and bank reserves

6:50 - December rate cut now 50-50 toss up

8:14 - Economy still bubbling along robustly

8:39 - If big sell-off, Fed will start QE again

10:40 - Is it November 2018 all over again?

14:38 - Are we setting up for another repo crisis?

17:27 - Bitcoin fell below $95,000 - what's it signaling?

20:50 - Gold discussion: most investors under-invested

24:44 - Private credit concerns

25:48 - Government shutdown resolution

28:29 - Mortgage markets and housing policy

31:08 - Closing remarks and what to watch next week

James Lavish, co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joins Episode 305 of the Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Lavish explains how the government shutdown has locked nearly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account, draining liquidity from financial systems and raising concerns about a 2019-style repo crisis as bank reserves fall to dangerous levels. He argues Americans have lost 25% of their purchasing power from 2020 to 2025, and while technology should bring deflation, we instead have persistent 3% inflation because it's necessary to manage $38 trillion in debt through currency debasement. Lavish explains the K-shaped economy where the top 1% gained 8X wealth since 1990 versus 4X for the bottom 50%, noting commercial real estate defaults are spiking and subprime auto lenders are collapsing. When the TGA liquidity eventually floods back into markets, he warns not to mistake it for prosperity—it's currency debasement, which is why he recommends positioning in hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and real estate. The Fed is trapped between dual mandates with no way out, and while AI stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves risking a market shock, his message is clear: own assets because he's not bullish on the economy, he's bearish on the currency.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish

The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/

The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction and welcome

1:20 - Big picture macro view: Fed battling dual mandates

4:30 - Stagflation risk: prices rising as economy rolls over

5:10 - Government shutdown removing liquidity from markets

7:19 - Treasury General Account (TGA) explained

14:21 - 2019 repo crisis explained

21:31 - Current concerns about overnight lending market

26:18 - Will Fed do QE again?

29:03 - Credit markets

29:07 - K-shaped economy explained

37:08 - Position for currency deterioration

38:28 - Why people think 2% inflation is normal

40:11 - Lost 25% purchasing power from 2020 to 2025

40:41 - Technology should bring deflation, not inflation

46:30 - Why we need inflation: $38 trillion debt problem

50:59 - What's keeping James up at night

55:27 - Closing remarks and contact information

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 304. Ed Dowd argues we're already in a technical recession, with the stock market bubble driven by just seven stocks masking underlying economic weakness as housing rolls over, layoffs accelerate at Amazon and UPS, and credit markets tighten. He warns that insider selling is at unprecedented levels as institutions distribute to retail investors in classic "FOMO" behavior, while the equal-weighted S&P has gone nowhere since January. Dowd criticizes the Trump administration for gaslighting Americans about the economy instead of communicating the Biden hangover from illegal immigration and deficit spending, explains China is exporting deflation due to their real estate crisis and 20 years of excess housing inventory, and predicts a deflation scare with oil plummeting to $30 before the Fed intervenes with massive QE. He recommends raising cash and moving into treasuries like Warren Buffett, expects the dollar to rip as liquidity dries up globally, sees gold hitting $10,000 by 2030 as central banks accumulate it, and warns Bitcoin will go much lower as it's underperforming treasuries—an early warning indicator of the risk-off environment ahead.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/

US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm?

Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction and welcome

1:09 - Macro view

5:00 - Credit markets tightening, distribution phase of stock market, Trump administration gaslighting about economy

7:00 - China at a crossroads: real estate crisis going acute

7:55 - China exporting deflation, depreciating the yuan

9:00 - Tariffs are deflationary

10:00 - Risk-off environment is coming

11:00 - Dollar outlook

12:40 - Risk off environment: flight to safety into treasuries

14:20 - Three Hindenburg omens: market breadth disaster

15:00 - Gold discussion: long-term bullish, going to $10,000 by 2030

17:00 - AI bubble: momentum and administration fomenting it

22:20 - Retail FOMO buying: sign of unhealthy market

24:32 - Fed cutting but still behind the curve

27:00 - Credit markets sniffing out deflation scare

30:00 - 1970s stagflation period: inflation/deflation yo-yo

30:37 - Oil going to $30: China internal consumption plummeted

33:43 - Gaslighting about the economy: people feel the reality

35:30 - China facing crossroads and crisis starting in 2020

40:00 - Dollar liquidity issue: people scrambling for dollars

40:40 - Treasury Secretary Bessent can term out debt during recession

41:03 - Yellen front-loaded debt, significance of terming it out

42:30 - Immigration

48:40 - 100% probability we're in recession now

49:30 - How to be allocated: raise cash for flexibility

50:40 - Japan carry trade could blow up at any moment

52:00 - What makes Ed optimistic: asset prices will come down

54:07 - Where to find Ed's work and research

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns for an in-person conversation for episode 303. Whalen warns that stocks and crypto are slowing down as they run out of buyers, while real estate pain continues with older assets selling at discounts and more trouble ahead for private equity and private credit. He attributes Zohran Mamdani's NYC mayoral victory to inflation-driven affordability concerns, predicts a home price correction by 2027-28, and expects continued corporate exodus from New York City as long-term leases roll off. Whalen criticizes the Fed for pushing home prices up 50% since COVID and failing their mandate on price stability, discusses widespread fraud in private credit markets, and highlights Bank of America's duration risk mistakes compared to JPMorgan and Citi. He's currently focused on gold and junior mining stocks, explaining the "debasement trade" as central banks worldwide shift to gold as their primary reserve asset, while predicting crypto will "go bye-bye" and calling stablecoins a dead end.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

0:00 - Welcome and introduction

1:02 - Reaction to Mamdani election

2:03 - Is this the product of inflation?

2:10 - Inflation driving affordability issues, Fed's failure

2:54 - Heading into correction in home prices by 2027-28

5:26 - How mortgage lenders set rates vs. bond market

6:33 - Will we see a housing emergency declared?

12:08 - Outlook for New York for next four years

14:59 - Big picture view: stocks and crypto slowing down

15:30 - Pain in real estate, private equity, and private credit

20:37 - Duration risk story at banks

27:47 - Will we get December rate cut?

29:17 - Fed funds rate targeting piece

32:49 - Chris's portfolio: taking acorns off the table

35:59 - The debasement trade

39:36 - Crypto going bye-bye, stable coins a dead end

42:05 - Closing remarks

Value investor and former New York City mayoral candidate Whitney Tilson returns to The Julia La Roche Show following the election of Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist, as NYC's new mayor. Tilson reflects on the election results, expressing concern about the candidate he called a "Trojan horse for the DSA" with dangerous ideas about defunding police and seizing private property—yet remains bullish on New York City's future. He also shares his market outlook, favorite long ideas including Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon, and the "stinky six" stocks he's avoiding right now.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

https://stansberryresearch.com/

https://stansberryresearch.com/whitney-tilsons-daily

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction and welcome Whitney Tilson, day after NYC mayoral election

1:04 - Mixed feelings about election night

2:00 - Warnings about Zohran Mamdani and democratic socialist concerns

2:45 - Still bullish on New York despite election outcome

3:10 - What Mamdani's election says about the city

3:22 - Democratic Party dynamics and Trump reaction

4:37 - Why Mamdani won: identifying affordability as key issue

4:54 - Mamdani's effective messaging: free buses, freeze the rent, universal childcare

5:45 - Economics don't work: the promises can't be funded

6:30 - Mamdani as a gifted politician and brilliant public speaker

7:10 - The "Trojan horse for the DSA" warning

7:43 - Whitney's concerns about Mamdani: hostility to Israel, defund police rhetoric

8:30 - Mamdani tacking to center: keeping Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch

9:27 - NYC's vibe is back post-pandemic

9:38 - Big employers making long-term commitments to NYC

10:25 - Risk of turning into San Francisco

10:52 - Wait and see mode: wealthy residents considering leaving

14:30 - Why Mamdani is still dangerous

16:06 - Running for mayor: what surprised Whitney

20:00 - Hope that Mamdani learns from cautionary tales

36:56 - Investment ideas: favorite longs

44:00 - Stocks to avoid: the "stinky six"

47:04 - Berkshire's massive cash pile: $382 billion

51:47 - What's keeping Whitney up at night

56:30 - What makes Whitney optimistic: America's economic recovery

59:38 - Closing remarks

Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 301 on FOMC day. In this episode, Dr. Shilling warns that the economy is cooling with weakening labor markets and stagnant job creation, yet security markets continue to rise without reflecting this underlying weakness. Despite the government shutdown limiting official data, private sector information reveals businesses are cautious about demand and inflation, while consumers face limited financial slack due to heavy student loan and credit card borrowing. Shilling believes the Fed is cutting rates because they fear a recession is on the horizon, and he cautions that "we're probably gonna wake up one of these days and find that things are really a lot weaker than we expect" - at which point markets could deteriorate quickly. He also expresses concern about the "debt bomb" - the massive accumulation of government debt now exceeding $38 trillion with no logical endpoint in sight. However, Shilling remains impressed by the adaptability and resilience of the US economy, noting how it has successfully adjusted to disruptions like tariffs that many predicted would be disastrous.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction & welcome

0:48 - Big picture macro view: economy appears to be cooling

1:30 - Government shutdown: private data filling the holes

2:00 - Weakening labor markets: limited new hiring

2:45 - Businesses cautious about demand and inflation

3:17 - Recession concerns: won't know until well into it

3:45 - Security markets not reflecting economic weakness

4:03 - Fed Chair Powell presser context (October 29th FOMC meeting)

4:32 - Why markets are overly focused on Fed actions

5:30 - Fed's tightrope walk: keeping economy above water

6:25 - Are rate cuts signaling recession fears?

6:34 - Fed concerned about softening labor markets

7:20 - Finding hidden vulnerabilities during data blackout

7:51 - Labor market concerns: limited consumer slack

8:20 - Heavy borrowing: student loans and credit cards

27:24 - US fiscal picture: debt north of $38 trillion

27:45 - The debt bomb concept explained

28:45 - Massive global debt expansion concerns

29:49 - What happens when debt reaches its limit?

30:23 - What's keeping Dr. Shilling up at night

31:15 - Lack of concern about debt accumulation

32:00 - What makes him hopeful: US economy's strength and adaptability

32:46 - Economic adaptability to disruptions

33:11 - Tariffs discussion: six months later perspective

33:46 - How economies adapt to tariff disruptions

35:03 - Where to find Dr. Shilling's work

35:25 - Parting thoughts: avoiding fads of the moment

36:37 - Closing remarks

Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the October 2024 FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's surprisingly hawkish stance despite mounting evidence of labor market weakness. Danielle questions whether the Fed is ignoring its dual mandate as major companies like UPS, GM, Meta, and Amazon announce tens of thousands of layoffs. She discusses the dissents from both Stephen Miran and Jeffrey Schmid, explores potential political dynamics at play within the Fed, and examines growing stress in private credit markets, commercial real estate, and rising corporate bankruptcies. Danielle also highlights alternative labor market indicators like state-by-state data and WARN notices that paint a concerning picture of the economy, while emphasizing the importance of compassion for struggling American families heading into the holiday season.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

This show is brought to you by Monetary Metals.

Learn more about Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

0:00 Introduction & episode 300 celebration

1:37 FOMC meeting reaction - Powell's hawkish tone

2:33 What's really going on at the Fed?

3:48 The two dissenters - Miran & Schmid

5:39 Market reaction to Powell's comments

6:17 The Fed's labor mandate - are they ignoring it?

7:16 Major layoff announcements - UPS, GM, Meta, Amazon

8:00 Is the Fed sticking it to the administration?

9:55 Fed balance sheet & mortgage-backed securities

16:19 Private credit market concerns

27:04 Corporate bankruptcies rising

28:18 October bankruptcy data - highest post-pandemic

29:22 Interest rate impact on corporate refinancing

30:05 What would you ask Powell? State-by-state data

31:29 WARN notices & real labor market data

32:19 Layoffs aren't free - cost to companies

33:10 ADP weekly data as labor market indicator

33:26 Message of compassion during the holidays

34:29 Closing & where to find Danielle's work

35:09 QI Research & Daily Feather newsletter

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche for episode 299. Pento continues to warn of three unprecedented asset bubbles in stocks, bonds, and credit existing concurrently. Despite being net long and up handsomely this year, he emphasizes the critical need for active management. Pento explains why the next crisis will likely stem from spiking bond yields and intractable inflation rather than insolvency alone, making traditional Fed interventions ineffective. He argues that any meaningful correction would be catastrophic given the massive scale of current distortions, while the Fed desperately tries to keep bubbles inflated through rate cuts and resumed quantitative easing.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠

Links:

https://pentoport.com/

https://twitter.com/michaelpento

0:00 Intro and welcome back Michael Pento

0:59 Big picture macro view

1:38 Three unprecedented asset bubbles: Stocks, bonds, and credit

3:38 Inflation accelerating

4:01 Fed panicking to keep the bubble going

6:56 Are you nervous being net long the market?

8:35 The next crisis will be different - Stagflation risk

9:43 Bond market revolt scenario

12:28 Magnificent Seven concentration risk

14:15 Government shutdown and lack of economic data

16:19 Treasury issuance and bond market dynamics

18:42 Federal budget deficit concerns

20:33 Fed's balance sheet and quantitative tightening ending

24:18 Bifurcated economy

36:45 Political pressure on the Fed

38:50 Trump's economic policies and inflation risks

40:33 Tariffs and their inflationary impact

46:23 What keeps Michael up at night?

47:50 The great reconciliation of asset prices coming

49:02 Where to find Michael's work - Pento Portfolio Strategies

50:10 Closing thoughts