Episodios

  • #328 Peter Boockvar: Why $60 Oil Is One Of The Cheapest Assets In The World
    Jan 16 2026

    Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, sees "bells ringing" on the AI tech trade with Oracle, CoreWeave, and Nvidia showing tiredness, and warns the question is whether the baton can be passed to other sectors without the market falling apart. His three favorite groups for 2026 are energy (where $60 oil is "one of the cheapest assets in the world" and he sees $70+ minimum), agriculture (fertilizer stocks like Mosaic and Nutrient), and beaten-down consumer staples offering "bond-like dividend yields with equity-like upside." On Venezuela, he disagrees with the oil-for-midterms thesis - it's really about stiff-arming China, Russia, and Iran, and won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years anyway. He's been trimming silver after its vertical move toward $100 but still likes gold driven by central bank buying and dollar diversification. His biggest concern: if we lose the AI trade, its dominance is so large it could take everything down with it.


    This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

    Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia


    Links:

    Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/

    Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvar


    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Boockvar

    01:18 2025 retro: World markets did really well, fire lit under international markets

    03:15 Bells ringing on AI tech trade - Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia tiredness

    05:45 China competition in AI - models more applicable, monetizing faster

    06:30 Bifurcated economy: Manufacturing recession, lower-middle income spending weak

    07:45 Data center build out - question of when not if it slows

    08:30 Delta earnings: Premium cabin strong, main cabin no growth

    09:15 Europe bifurcated too: Germany/France struggling, Spain/Greece doing well

    11:36 Three favorite groups for 2026: Energy, ag, consumer staples

    12:15 Energy: Bearish sentiment extreme, contrarian setup, CFTC net longs at 15-year lows

    13:30 Venezuela: 5-10 years before notable production increase

    14:15 OPEC production lagging quotas - most running at full capacity

    15:00 US shale production slowing, rolling over even in Permian

    15:45 Peak oil demand pushed out - hybrids winning, EV demand delayed

    16:30 Ag: Fertilizer stocks - Mosaic, Nutrient - down and out value plays

    17:15 Consumer staples destroyed over 12 months - deep value now

    17:52 Names: Kimberly Clark, Nestle, Pepsi, ConAgra, Coke, Reynolds

    18:24 Oil at $60 is one of the cheapest assets in the world - sees $70 minimum

    19:15 Energy holdings: Exxon, BP, Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Oxy, Noble, EQT

    23:44 Venezuela won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years - focused on near-term

    25:32 Inflation: Conflicting dynamics - services decelerating, goods inflation returning

    27:00 Next Fed chair will have inflation dilemma - sticky around 3%

    28:45 Services inflation could rebound in back half of 2026 as apartment supply absorbed

    29:01 Reaction to Powell subpoena

    30:09 Powell is done cutting - will be playing 18 holes in June

    31:28 Last Fed cut was not necessary - took neutral rate below 1%

    32:30 Need low and stable prices first, then labor market improves

    35:34 Gold north of $4,600 - levels don't surprise, maybe pace did

    36:27 Silver at $92 - trimming position, tree needs to take a breather

    37:30 Gold thesis: Central bank buying, dollar diversification has more legs

    38:49 2025 lesson: World woke up to opportunities outside mag seven

    40:22 What not to own: Mag seven, long duration bonds

    40:46 Japan matters for global rates - JGB yields rising, canary in coal mine

    42:00 Bullish emerging market local currency bonds - better finances, cheap currencies

    42:57 EM names: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia

    43:45 Biggest risk: Losing AI trade and gap up in long-term rates

    44:24 Optimism: Broadening out continues, international markets, commodity trade has legs

    45:03 Parting thoughts: Investors need to be flexible in their thinking

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    46 m
  • #327 Jim Rogers: Out Of US Stocks, Not A Bubble Yet & Holding Not Buying Gold
    Jan 15 2026

    Jim Rogers, who has sold all his US shares, warns that the American market has been going up longer than ever in history and when people say "it's different this time," you should look out the window and ask questions. While he doesn't think we're in a bubble yet, he sees bubble characteristics forming and is watching for signs to start shorting - like kids leaving college for the stock market and everyone talking about their investments. Rogers is deeply concerned about the $38.6 trillion in balance sheet debt plus over $200 trillion in off-balance sheet obligations, noting that historically this has always led to big problems. He still owns gold and silver but isn't buying at all-time highs, holds positions in China and Uzbekistan, and says he's "not happy" about the US capturing Venezuela's president - calling it "not normal" and "not defensible on the international stage." His stark conclusion: "It's a good time to be an old American. Young Americans are going to have lots of problems in their lifetime."


    This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

    Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia


    00:00 Intro and welcome Jim Rogers

    01:28 US economy and market going up longest in American history - sold all US shares

    02:06 Has the US performance surprised you?

    02:53 What questions should we be asking right now?

    02:58 When should I start selling short? Exuberance setting us up for a top

    03:41 Still owns shares in Uzbekistan and China - assessing China after recent run

    04:12 Is the US in a bubble? Not yet, but beginning to have bubble characteristics

    05:31 Worst crisis in our lifetime still coming - debt is unbelievable

    07:55 Fed Chair Powell DOJ subpoena

    11:00 US debt highest in history of the world, Fed printing huge amounts of money

    13:12 Gold and silver performance - owns both, not selling, will buy more if they go down

    15:34 Room to run in precious metals? Debt skyrocketing, money printing everywhere

    16:36 What signs would make you short?

    17:27 America losing financial wherewithal

    19:44 Portfolio: Watching China go straight up, watching Uzbekistan, not adding

    21:30 Venezuela

    22:53 Nearly every stock market in the world making new highs - time to ask questions

    24:56 Greatest strength and weakness as investor?

    25:57 Biggest mistake?

    27:46 Parting thoughts




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    30 m
  • #326 Chris Whalen: Trump's Idiotic Mortgage Bond Idea & Why Institutional Investors Aren't The Problem - The Fed Is
    Jan 10 2026

    Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen."


    In this episode, Whalen calls Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond buyback idea "idiotic" and says institutional investors aren't the problem with housing - the Fed buying 30-year mortgages and driving up home prices 50% in five years was the real culprit. He explains the Fed has been "operating like a hedge fund" with dangerous variable duration securities that won't pay off for over 10 years. On Venezuela, Whalen says it should have happened long ago - the Iranians had offensive missiles there that could strike the US, and he's astounded previous administrations tolerated it. He warns AI hype is now a systemic risk to tech valuations, with Oracle's Larry Ellison risking his company to chase the crowd, and predicts 2025's "magical year with no apparent cost for risk" is ending as banks prepare for consumer credit deterioration in 2026-27.



    Links:

    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

    https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira796

    Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/


    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen

    00:48 Non-farm payrolls report - weakness supports those saying economy is weak

    01:46 Rate cuts likely this year on short end, but long-term rates not coming down

    02:45 Trump's $200 billion mortgage bond idea - Chris calls it "idiotic"

    07:25 Housing correction already building in weaker markets

    08:24 Institutional investors not the problem - Fed buying 30-year mortgages was the problem

    12:04 What would actually help housing? Build more houses, change zoning

    13:04 NYC

    18:16 Venezuela should have happened long ago

    24:49 AI hype now a systemic risk to tech valuations?

    27:06 Buying cheap financials - Flagstar below book, knows the team

    28:39 2025 magical year with no apparent cost for risk - that's changing

    30:05 Bank earnings next week

    30:35 Viewer question: Deregulation impact on banks and real estate

    32:53 Viewer question: If correction coming, wouldn't metals also fall?

    34:52 Wrap up and parting thoughts

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    37 m
  • #325 David Woo: The World Is Not The Same After This Week
    Jan 9 2026

    Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, argues the world changed forever after the US captured Maduro on January 3 in "Operation Absolute Resolve" - the first time in 100 years a country took out another head of state without consent. He explains this signals the death of the rule-based international order, making gold extremely bullish as countries can no longer trust the dollar system. Woo's key trades for 2026: short oil (December contract heading to high 40s/low 50s) as Trump needs to win the affordability argument for midterms, and he gives 65% odds of a massive $2,000 tariff rebate stimulus package. He admits getting gold completely wrong last year (up 60%) but remains bullish, warns the K-shaped economy consensus is about to be upended if lower oil and stimulus help the bottom 80%, and identifies the AI bubble bursting as the biggest risk - with Microsoft's January 28 earnings as a crucial date.


    This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

    Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

    Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).


    Links:

    Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

    Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound


    Timestamps:

    0:00 Intro and welcome David Woo

    01:28 Macro picture - don't fight Trump

    02:31 Midterm election is the biggest story of 2026

    05:17 Affordability argument - Venezuela about oil - not democracy, not drugs

    12:45 Tariff rebate? 65% chance of massive fiscal stimulus before midterms

    16:10 Don't fight Trump - theme of 2026

    16:35 Gold was up 60% - the ultimate Trump trade of 2025

    17:15 Short oil is the ultimate Trump trade of 2026

    19:03 K-shape economy consensus about to be upended

    20:43 What David got wrong on gold last year

    26:17 The world is not the same - Venezuela changes everything

    31:45 US tech lead over China shrinking from 2-3 years to 6 months

    33:54 Knock-on effects: Bearish emerging markets, bullish defense, bullish gold

    38:57 OPEC biggest loser - lost Venezuela, may lose Iran

    42:04 TACO or FAFO?

    44:44 Why does stock market matter to Trump?

    49:34 Biggest risk for 2026: Bursting of AI bubble

    52:10 Retail buy-the-dip crowd - most powerful force in markets

    54:14 Wrap up and where to find David Woo

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    55 m
  • #324 Henrik Zeberg: Blow Off Top Underway - Real Economy Already Sinking
    Jan 8 2026

    Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, warns that despite stock markets hitting all-time highs, the real economy is sinking fast - private job creation has fallen below recessionary levels seen in 2007, and 90% of US consumers are now worse off than going into both the 2008 financial crisis and the 1929 depression. Using his Titanic metaphor, he explains first class passengers (top 10%) are still at the bar while third class is already in the water. Zeberg predicts a blow-off top with the S&P potentially hitting 8,200 before a crash worse than 2008, driven by central bank hubris that will trigger stagflation when the Fed inevitably intervenes. He's long-term bullish on gold and silver but warns of a short-term pullback as the dollar spikes to 120+ on the DXY during the deflationary bust, and explains why there's no easy way out this time - we've exhausted the free lunch of money printing.


    This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

    Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia


    Links:

    X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg

    Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/

    Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201

    TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H


    00:00 Intro and welcome Henrik Zeberg

    01:22 Macro view, the real economy is about job creation, not financial markets

    04:13 90% of consumers worse off than going into 2008 and 1929

    05:58 Titanic metaphor: First class denying while third class already in water

    06:56 Chart: ADP private job creation declining to recessionary levels

    08:26 Illusion of stability: Stock market disconnect from economy

    09:07 Stock market doesn't predict recessions - look at unemployment

    11:15 Zeberg business cycle model pointing to recession

    14:55 Bond market sniffing out problems - yield curve signals

    20:02 Central banks and the Fed: The hubris problem

    23:02 2020 changed everything - inflation is back as a factor

    25:26 Gold and silver starting to show end game signs

    26:20 If Fed intervenes with more stimulus, it creates stagflation

    28:03 Henrik's views on gold and silver clarified

    30:55 Dollar regime coming - DXY could spike

    32:12 Long-term bullish gold/silver but short-term pullback expected

    35:35 Navigating different regimes as an investor

    38:19 Strong dollar implications

    39:06 Current regime still risk-on, riding the blow off top

    43:29 Why this recession will be worse than 2008

    48:21 No easy way out - we're at the end of the Keynesian curve

    49:12 Can we get back to sound money? Only through pain

    51:41 Under the radar trend: Realization of how bad consumer really is

    53:55 AI won't save us short-term - actually reduces jobs needed

    54:25 Wrap up: Think for yourself, do your own research

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    57 m
  • #323 Chris Whalen: A Generational Reset Of Credit & Asset Valuations - Corporate Credit Worsens 2026, Housing Decline 2027-28 & The Cost Of QE
    Jan 3 2026

    Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" for his 2026 outlook.

    In this episode, Whalen warns of a market correction comparable to 2008, driven by carnage in private equity where hundreds of companies cannot be sold and sponsors are selling companies to themselves. After a decade-and-a-half Fed liquidity party, he predicts corporate credit will worsen in 2026, setting the stage for a housing market decline in 2027-28. Whalen reveals fraud has become epidemic in housing thanks to AI-altered bank statements, discusses the global power shift as Shanghai now sets gold prices (not Chicago or London), and explains why Powell will likely stay on the Fed board through 2028 to protect the institution - betraying Trump just like every Fed chair before him.



    Links:

    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

    https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira794

    Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/


    Timestamps:

    0:00 Intro and welcome back to The Wrap with Chris Whalen

    01:25 2025 retrospective

    3:35 Big stories of 2026

    05:30 Midterms

    08:21 Maxi market correction coming alongside 2008 in textbooks

    15:09 Will Powell retire or remain on the board?

    16:45 Will we see a more hawkish Fed in 2026?

    17:50 Default rates

    21:25 What happens with housing in 2026

    22:42 Drawing parallels to the Gilded Age

    26:29 Gold and silver - another good year ahead

    32:41 Viewer question: Annaly mortgage REIT common vs preferred

    36:48 What's on the radar next week: Big investment banks piece

    38:18 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

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    40 m
  • #322 Peter Grandich: Most Concerned In 40 Year Career - Gold Heading To $5,000, $50 Trillion Debt Crisis & Why We're Becoming A Banana Republic
    Dec 24 2025

    Peter Grandich delivers his most bearish outlook in a 40+ year career, predicting 2026-2027 could be the most challenging years in 50 years due to mounting debt ($38T heading to $50T), political division worse than any time since the Civil War, and a deteriorating middle class hanging by its fingernails. He explains why this was his best five-year period after moving entirely into gold and precious metals in 2021, with price targets of $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver still ahead. He warns we're in the earliest stages of becoming a banana republic as BRICS launches a gold-backed trading unit and de-dollarization accelerates.


    This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

    Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia


    Links:

    https://x.com/PeterGrandich

    https://petergrandich.com/

    https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6


    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Grandich

    01:17 Macro view - not a lot of positive things to say

    09:47 Best year in five years - gold and precious metals trade

    13:52 Oil prediction: $50 before $150

    15:12 Deteriorating middle class hanging by fingernails

    21:41 Most concerned he's ever been in 40+ year career

    23:01 Trump's trade war mistakes

    28:21 De-dollarization and dollars coming back to US

    30:18 Solutions: Return to moral compass and faith

    35:48 Wealth preservation vs appreciation for investors

    41:31 Passive investing

    45:12 The 12 factors of why party like 1929 will bite back

    47:58 Biblical wisdom on debt and finances

    49:19 Parting thoughts

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    54 m
  • #321 Carol Roth: America's Broken Fiscal Foundation & The Inflation That's Coming
    Dec 22 2025

    Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 321. Carol delivers a sobering assessment of America's broken fiscal foundation with debt-to-GDP over 120%, explaining why the K-shaped economy is creating a non-merit-based divide driven by policy and the administrative class wealth transfer. She discusses the wealth paradox - despite abundance, Americans are more stressed than ever due to housing, education, and healthcare costs - and predicts inflation will be the release valve for our debt crisis. Roth shares her bullish thesis on gold and precious metals as central banks shift away from US Treasuries, explains why the Fed's tools are now irrelevant in this fiscal dominance era, and reveals her predictions for 2026 including decoupling from European allies, Fed chaos, and wild out-of-the-box policies.


    This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

    Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia


    Links:

    You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/

    Follow Carol Roth on X: https://x.com/caroljsroth


    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro and welcome Carol Roth

    00:57 Big picture macro view: Broken fiscal foundation

    04:07 K-shaped economy debate and wealth paradox

    11:46 Administrative class wealth transfer problem

    18:33 Is Trump going to fix the broken fiscal foundation?

    24:37 Do rate cuts help everyday Americans?

    30:51 Gold as hedge and insurance policy

    37:50 "You Will Own Nothing" - what's changed since 2023

    45:33 Predictions for 2026

    48:58 Wrap up and where to find Carol

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    51 m
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