Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down what's ahead for the Federal Reserve and financial markets as we head into 2026. He discusses Kevin Hassett as the likely next Fed Chair, explaining why Fed independence is more myth than reality and how political pressures will influence rate decisions ahead of the midterm elections. Whalen analyzes the upcoming FOMC meeting, commercial real estate risks, and why he's not concerned about an imminent market crisis despite ongoing concerns about the Treasury market and credit conditions. He also tackles why the Fed's 2% inflation target may be outdated and explains the K-shaped economy that has consumers and investors feeling divided about the recovery.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen

01:49 Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair pick?

02:29 Fed independence and political dynamics

05:00 Midterm elections and rate cut pressure

09:28 FOMC meeting preview and rate cut expectations

09:31 Jobs data and Fed concerns

12:45 Commercial real estate challenges

16:20 Banking sector health and credit quality

19:35 Private credit market concerns

22:50 Treasury market dynamics

27:31 Viewer question: Why the 2% inflation target?

28:14 Inflation vs deflation in asset markets

30:00 Biggest risks entering 2026

30:27 Surprise events and systemic risk

31:21 K-shaped economy and recovery paths

33:00 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

Hugh Hendry, "The Acid Capitalist," returns to the Julia La Roche Show. Hendry breaks down his "macro compass" portfolio framework: 25% equities (overweight Japanese stocks after their 35-year breakout), 25% US treasuries (buying TLT after a 50% decline), 25% alternatives (Bitcoin over gold due to market cap), and 25% strategic cash. His thesis: the treasury market is so large (100% of GDP) that it's prevented inflation despite massive deficit spending, but AI will cause 20% unemployment within 2-3 years. That unemployment will force governments into redistribution mode, finally breaking the system's ability to contain inflation. He discusses why tech valuations are near peak, why the yen carry trade matters, and why sterling may be the first major currency to collapse as the UK's service economy gets hit hardest by AI displacement.

Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh

Substack: https://hughhendry.substack.com/

Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcast/id1511187978

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial

00:00 - Intro

00:52 - The macro compass: 4 quadrant portfolio framework

03:52 - Quadrant 1: Equities & why Hugh loves Japanese stocks

06:10 - Pattern recognition: Buying 35-year breakouts

08:32 - Quadrant 2: US treasuries (TLT) after 50% collapse

10:35 - The AI singularity & 20% unemployment prediction

12:48 - Cheap labor is over: The end of the China era

15:07 - Why corporations will shed jobs (but won't admit it yet)

18:37 - Quadrant 3: Gold vs Bitcoin - market cap analysis

22:03 - Why Hugh prefers Bitcoin over gold

25:46 - The currency quadrant: Which currencies to hold

28:15 - Why the dollar may weaken despite being "king"

32:28 - Hugh's trade of the year: Yen carry unwind

38:42 - The reflexivity problem: AI makes everything cheaper

43:15 - Why we didn't get hyperinflation despite massive printing

48:29 - The treasury market as a "fire gap" stopping inflation

53:14 - Tech valuations: Are we in a bubble?

58:36 - Why Hugh thinks we're near peak valuations

1:02:44 - Why the treasury market stopped inflation (100% of GDP)

1:04:31 - The chaos trigger: 20% unemployment will break everything

1:05:00 - Youth unemployment & the rise of socialist politics

1:06:23 - NYC mayor & the "no billionaires" movement

1:07:06 - The UK disaster: Disability spending & currency collapse

1:09:34 - Sterling as first currency casualty of AI

Dr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute and Austrian economist who correctly called the housing bubble, warns that we're living in an everything bubble with a flock of black swans ready to ignite a crisis. From commercial real estate cover-ups to private equity opacity, data center spending without defined returns, and trillions in government debt, Dr. Thornton explains how Fed manipulation and artificial interest rates have created malinvestments across the economy—and why Trump's push for lower rates will only fuel more bubble activity. He breaks down Austrian Business Cycle Theory, why we're on the on-ramp to hyperinflation with 2026 looking turbulent, and makes the case for gold and silver as essential hedges against fiat money depreciation in a world of central bank money printing and currency debasement.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links

X: https://x.com/DrMarkThornton

Free Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspx

Mises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thornton

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome Dr. Mark Thornton

01:09 Concerns about the macro economy

6:35 Fed manipulation creating vast array of potential swans

12:00 What if inflation ticks up? Long-term government debt and currency depreciation fears

14:50 Living through an everything bubble

18:40 Fed outlook

22:30 Austrian Business Cycle Theory explained

28:30 Malinvestment and artificial credit expansion

34:50 Who really benefits from the Fed's policies?

44:50 Inflation to pay off the national debt

46:00 Gold and silver as hedges against fiat money depreciation

52:40 Early on in the precious metals bull market, silver going above $50 is 'the end of the beginning'

1:00:03 Path to hyperinflation

1:07:01 Bitcoin and Austrian School of Economics compatibility

1:10:31 Final thoughts and closing

Professor Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on 311.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

In this episode, Professor Hanke warns that the Fed's decision to end quantitative tightening in December, combined with bank deregulation unlocking $2.6 trillion in lending capacity, could trigger dangerous money supply acceleration and reignite asset bubbles and inflation. He criticizes the Fed for "flying blind" by rejecting the quantity theory of money in favor of a volatile "data-dependent" approach. On recession, Professor Hanke sits "on the fence"—labor weakness justifies rate cuts, but money supply acceleration could prevent any slowdown. He maintains gold will reach $6,000 in this secular bull market.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke

Making Money Work book: https://www.amazon.com/Making-Money-Work-Rewrite-Financial/dp/1394257260

0:00 - Intro and welcome back Professor Steve Hanke

1:20 - Big picture: money supply as fuel for the economy

3:30 - Fed ending quantitative tightening in December

6:00 - Yellow lights flashing: potential money supply acceleration, asset price inflation concerns and stock market bubble

Fed 8:35 - Fed funds rate cut probability fluctuating wildly

9:36 - Quantity theory of money vs. data-dependent Fed

11:37 - Flying blind by ignoring money supply

21:30 - Making Money Work book discussion

26:15 - Gold consolidating around $4,000, why it's headed to $6,000

29:24 - Recession probability: sitting on the fence

30:45 - Labor market weakness vs. money supply acceleration

32:12 - Why rate cut is justified based on labor market

33:13 - Closing

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 310. McDonald warns that a credit crisis has officially started with 16+ "idiosyncratic" events spreading tentacles across markets, while a big disruption is coming in Q1 as $6-8 trillion may leave the NASDAQ 100. But this creates an incredible opportunity for the cheap part of the market as the great rotation from growth to value begins, with coal and natural gas companies offering 15% free cash flow yields while tech giants burn cash in an AI arms race that's destroying their balance sheets. The market has internally crashed with the average S&P stock down 30-40%, but a handful of names are masking the carnage—and Larry reveals where the smart money is rotating.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond

Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

0:00 Intro: Welcome back Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report & author of "How to Listen When Markets Speak"

1:30 Credit bulls turning bearish

3:50 Credit most times leads equities

7:12 When does 'idiosyncratic' become systemic?

9:32 Opportunities for great stock buys

13:30 Nvidia

15:03 Dark side of passive investing

20:40 Set up for an incredible rotation from growth to value

22:00 Update on the hard asset thesis, commodity bull market

23:20 AI power trade

26:45 Banks buying Credit Default Swaps

29:20 A credit crisis has started

32:00 Parting thoughts

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down why markets are heading into a turbulent year-end. With the Treasury pulling $1 trillion out of the banking system and the Fed holding emergency meetings with dealers, a liquidity crunch is brewing just as big banks close their books after Thanksgiving. Chris explains why there won't be a December rate cut despite Fed happy talk, why the "silent crisis" in commercial real estate and private credit is spreading to insurance companies holding retail investors' annuities, and why public companies with Bitcoin exposure are about to report massive losses at year-end. Plus: the housing correction has officially begun as home price appreciation goes flat and GSEs start marking down property values.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro: Welcome back to The Wrap with Chris Whalen

0:41 No consensus for Fed cut in December

2:22 Why John Williams' "happy talk" doesn't matter

4:35 Treasury is the gorilla: $1 trillion drained from markets

4:58 Year-end liquidity crisis brewing

6:24 What that emergency Fed meeting was really all about

8:40 Bitcoin's ugly fall

14:45 Housing correction ahead?

27:04 What Chris Is Watching: Money markets and bank earnings

28:47 Commercial real estate & private credit pain

30:29 Where to find Chris and final thoughts

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the FOMC minutes. Danielle discusses the deep divisions within the Federal Reserve and their controversial decision-making heading into December. She argues the Fed is willfully ignoring abundant alternative data sources like ADP's weekly reports while claiming to fly blind without official jobs data—data that won't be released until after their December meeting due to administrative delays. Booth warns that if the Fed doesn't cut rates in December, they risk triggering a liquidity crisis similar to December 2018, when Powell's hawkish stance caused a market bloodbath on Christmas Eve and forced him to reverse course.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction & post-FOMC reaction

0:27 - Deep divisions within the Federal Reserve

1:47 - Fed's tone deafness on inflation concerns

2:05 - Politics at the Federal Open Market Committee

3:32 - Alternative data sources: ADP & jobless claims

5:38 - The irony: administration's self-inflicted rate cut problem

6:51 - ADP data: what Powell said vs. what the Fed does

7:32 - Market reaction & Nvidia's impact

8:13 - Should the Fed cut rates in December?

9:39 - Powell's contacts: the willful blindness problem

10:12 - Fed independence vs. politicization

11:28 - The damage of playing politics with monetary policy

13:51 - Treasury yields & market concerns

17:38 - Debt servicing crisis & political implications

26:54 - Private credit & private equity discussions

27:30 - Liquidity crisis warning: emergency rate cut risk

28:44 - Question for Powell?

29:27 - Why an emergency cut may be necessary

31:52 - Closing thoughts

Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, warns we're in the most dangerous time in financial history with three unprecedented bubbles—equities, real estate, and bonds. Hirschmann sees gold doubling to $8,000+ in the coming crisis, but argues for significant upside in gold mining developers. He predicts the Fed will be trapped in a stagflation scenario, and warns the next crisis will be the mother of all financial crises.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

Hirschmann Capital: https://www.hcapital.llc/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLC

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome back Brian Hirschmann

1:20 Macro picture, 3 bubbles bigger, most dangerous time in US financial history

5:00 Era of bailouts is over, government debt at breaking point

8:10 Are we past the point of no return?

9:00 US debt at 120% of GDP, virtually all countries at this level defaulted

15:55 Gold discussion: doubled since last appearance 18 months ago

20:54 Gold could more than double to $8,500+ if crisis hits

24:27 Gold miners vs gold: developers trading at 20% of intrinsic value

30:36 Misconceptions about gold's rise: tariffs, Chinese central bank, ETFs

34:04 Bitcoin

39:33 Fed will be trapped, lose control of interest rates in stagflation scenario

42:00 Lessons from David Swensen

45:19 Closing remarks