Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 191 to discuss the economy and markets.

With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective.

He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation.

https://oxbowadvisors.com/

00:00 Introduction and welcome Ted Oakley

1:31 Macro picture, a slow disintegration

3:06 Federal Reserve

5:30 State of the Middle Class

7:00 A September rate cut?

08:32 Conversations with clients about the economy

11:31 The average person's exposure to stocks is too high, building balanced portfolios

15:30 Similarities/differences between 2000 and today

17:40 The evolution of the market and rise of passive investing

19:30 Cash position

21:20 10-Year Treasury

23:48 Opportunities — cutting back on tech stocks, investing in pharmaceuticals

25:20 Gold

27:20 When to sell your winners

31:25 Staying rich with a balanced portfolio

33:50 Second, third generation wealth

39:40 Best and worst years personally

Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors LP, joins Julia La Roche episode 190 to discuss the macro picture and why the economy is likely headed toward recession. He also thinks this overvalued stock market could see a 15-20% correction.

Links:

website: https://www.ftportfolios.com/

blog: https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/blogs/Economics/index.aspx

X: https://x.com/wesbury

0:00 Welcome Brian Wesbury

1:09 Macro view

3:30 Why we're going to have a recession

4:25 Health of the economy

8:15 Savings rate

10:45 Bifurcated economy

12:30 Housing

15:45 Federal Reserve have separated the money supply from interest rates

19:60 Burns or Volcker

21:20 Cut because of politics

25:20 Debt situation

30:40 Bitcoin

33:44 State-run capitalism

37:00 Markets

40:00 Energy

42:50 Presidential election

47:20 Parting thoughts

Investor and speculator Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to the show for episode 189, featuring a discussion on the macro environment, warning signs, and investment opportunities.

Link to Rick's private placements bootcamp: https://events.ringcentral.com/events/rick-rule-s-virtual-private-placement-bootcamp?utm_source=aff&utm_campaign=14

00:00 Introduction and welcome back Rick Rule

01:30 Macro picture, wake-up call and lessons from the Japanese carry trade unwind

3:53 Be prepared for these contingencies

05:50 Two risks, one opportunity

09:50 Entitlements

12:15 Opportunity in gold

15:20 Taxes and inflation

19:39 The Federal Reserve and interest rates

23:19 Manipulation of interest rates

30:10 Bond market

35:05 Upcoming election

40:58 Parting thoughts

Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 188 to discuss the economy.

This episode was recorded on Friday, Aug. 2.

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/

Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome back Chris Whalen

01:00 Big picture view and the troublesome rate of change

2:30 10-year yield

04:15 An inflection point

06:15 Risks in corporate credit and commercial real estate

09:15 A difficult economic environment ahead

12:50 Upcoming election

15:00 Why the Fed won't cut before the election

16:40 Opportunities

18:40 Fannie and Freddie

23:08 Velocity of the change

24:00 Consumers

26:16 Opportunities for Lenders

28:00 Inflation problem

Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), joins Julia La Roche on episode 187 to discuss a dangerous triumvirate of bubbles in the economy: a real estate bubble, an equity bubble, and a credit bubble. These bubbles have been fueled by 20 years of a negative real Fed funds rate. Pento predicts that these bubbles will burst. He believes that the current situation is very dangerous and could result in a stagflationary environment. Michael also discusses inflation and the erosion of the middle class and the negative implications for the economy.

Links:

https://pentoport.com/

https://twitter.com/michaelpento

0:00 Welcome back Michael Pento

1:11 Macro view, most salient chart

1:55 A triumvirate of dangerous bubbles

4:09 Bubbles bursting

7:14 The market has already priced in rate cuts

9:39 Most dangerous time in the markets?

11:10 Where would we be if the free market could exist?

13:19 Bifurcation of the economy

19:44 America is an insolvent nation

21:30 Headed for stagflation

23:12 Election

24:29 Investing

27:50 Gold

28:30 Inflation

30:00 Erosion of the middle class

35:58 What difference would a Fed cut even make?

34:55 US dollar

41:20 Gold is not an investment

43:30 Any hope?

Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 186 for a wide-ranging conversation on economics and politics, including the attempted assassination on former President Trump and why the market has the so-called Trump trades all wrong.

This episode was recorded on Friday, July 19.

Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).

Links:

Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound

Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome David Woo

01:25 Big picture macro view

03:00 Geopolitical update

04:10 Trump trades

06:53 Election is not over yet

08:01 Assassination attempt and the risk of another attempt

11:15 JD Vance

15:20 Finding a replacement to Biden

18:45 2025 will have nothing to do with 2017

22:44 Challenges in financing tax cuts, tariffs, and potential for a global trade war

25:50 Collecting taxes on big tech companies doing business outside the US would be bearish for stocks

28:00 Trump will face a massive budget deficit and why he's not that bullish for bitcoin

28:50 Trump 1.0 vs. Trump 2.0 economy

30:30 If Trump wins, he'll inherit a huge mess from Biden

35:41 Immigration

40:31 The ultimate Trump trades are defensive trades

44:30 Betting on a recession

50:37 Generative AI is a bubble that will trigger a recession

56:55 Parting thoughts

Jim Rickards returns to the podcast for episode 185 to discuss the macro view and political turmoil in the U.S., including the attempted assassination of former President Trump. This episode was recorded on July 18.

Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy.

An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.

Links: http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/

https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and overview

05:46 The current political landscape and global events

16:49 Trump's path to victory

22:27 Internal dynamics within the Democratic Party

26:26 Discussions of a virtual roll call for Biden's nomination

31:03 Biden withdrawing and Harris becoming the nominee

35:11 The landmine of Congress certification in 2025

50:47 The path towards a recession

56:34 The stock market bubble and concentration risk

59:33 AI

Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and the founder and co-director of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, joins Julia La Roche on episode 81 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy.

Three years ago, using the quantity theory of money — which links asset prices, economic activity and inflation to changes in the money supply—Professor Hanke accurately predicted that inflation would be persistent and rise to the highest levels in a generation between 6 to 9%. Inflation topped out at 9.1%. And he expects inflation will fall to his expected range of 2.5-3% by the end of the year. He also expects that we'll enter a recession later this year or early next year.

Twitter/X: https://x.com/steve_hanke

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction and welcome Professor Hanke

01:05 Big picture, macro view, Quantity Theory of Money

06:20 Inflation headed to 2.5-3% zone by year-end, sees recession ahead

07:40 Grading the Federal Reserve's policies, they get an 'F'

12:40 How the money supply works

16:21 Inflation below 2%?

17:30 Debt and deficit

21:52 Need for a Constitutional amendment to control government spending

23:48 End game if we don't address the debt situation

24:44 A fiscal illusion