New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 310. McDonald warns that a credit crisis has officially started with 16+ "idiosyncratic" events spreading tentacles across markets, while a big disruption is coming in Q1 as $6-8 trillion may leave the NASDAQ 100. But this creates an incredible opportunity for the cheap part of the market as the great rotation from growth to value begins, with coal and natural gas companies offering 15% free cash flow yields while tech giants burn cash in an AI arms race that's destroying their balance sheets. The market has internally crashed with the average S&P stock down 30-40%, but a handful of names are masking the carnage—and Larry reveals where the smart money is rotating.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR

Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMK

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond

Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/

0:00 Intro: Welcome back Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report & author of "How to Listen When Markets Speak"

1:30 Credit bulls turning bearish

3:50 Credit most times leads equities

7:12 When does 'idiosyncratic' become systemic?

9:32 Opportunities for great stock buys

13:30 Nvidia

15:03 Dark side of passive investing

20:40 Set up for an incredible rotation from growth to value

22:00 Update on the hard asset thesis, commodity bull market

23:20 AI power trade

26:45 Banks buying Credit Default Swaps

29:20 A credit crisis has started

32:00 Parting thoughts

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down why markets are heading into a turbulent year-end. With the Treasury pulling $1 trillion out of the banking system and the Fed holding emergency meetings with dealers, a liquidity crunch is brewing just as big banks close their books after Thanksgiving. Chris explains why there won't be a December rate cut despite Fed happy talk, why the "silent crisis" in commercial real estate and private credit is spreading to insurance companies holding retail investors' annuities, and why public companies with Bitcoin exposure are about to report massive losses at year-end. Plus: the housing correction has officially begun as home price appreciation goes flat and GSEs start marking down property values.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro: Welcome back to The Wrap with Chris Whalen

0:41 No consensus for Fed cut in December

2:22 Why John Williams' "happy talk" doesn't matter

4:35 Treasury is the gorilla: $1 trillion drained from markets

4:58 Year-end liquidity crisis brewing

6:24 What that emergency Fed meeting was really all about

8:40 Bitcoin's ugly fall

14:45 Housing correction ahead?

27:04 What Chris Is Watching: Money markets and bank earnings

28:47 Commercial real estate & private credit pain

30:29 Where to find Chris and final thoughts

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche to break down the FOMC minutes. Danielle discusses the deep divisions within the Federal Reserve and their controversial decision-making heading into December. She argues the Fed is willfully ignoring abundant alternative data sources like ADP's weekly reports while claiming to fly blind without official jobs data—data that won't be released until after their December meeting due to administrative delays. Booth warns that if the Fed doesn't cut rates in December, they risk triggering a liquidity crisis similar to December 2018, when Powell's hawkish stance caused a market bloodbath on Christmas Eve and forced him to reverse course.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction & post-FOMC reaction

0:27 - Deep divisions within the Federal Reserve

1:47 - Fed's tone deafness on inflation concerns

2:05 - Politics at the Federal Open Market Committee

3:32 - Alternative data sources: ADP & jobless claims

5:38 - The irony: administration's self-inflicted rate cut problem

6:51 - ADP data: what Powell said vs. what the Fed does

7:32 - Market reaction & Nvidia's impact

8:13 - Should the Fed cut rates in December?

9:39 - Powell's contacts: the willful blindness problem

10:12 - Fed independence vs. politicization

11:28 - The damage of playing politics with monetary policy

13:51 - Treasury yields & market concerns

17:38 - Debt servicing crisis & political implications

26:54 - Private credit & private equity discussions

27:30 - Liquidity crisis warning: emergency rate cut risk

28:44 - Question for Powell?

29:27 - Why an emergency cut may be necessary

31:52 - Closing thoughts

Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, warns we're in the most dangerous time in financial history with three unprecedented bubbles—equities, real estate, and bonds. Hirschmann sees gold doubling to $8,000+ in the coming crisis, but argues for significant upside in gold mining developers. He predicts the Fed will be trapped in a stagflation scenario, and warns the next crisis will be the mother of all financial crises.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

Hirschmann Capital: https://www.hcapital.llc/

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLC

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro and welcome back Brian Hirschmann

1:20 Macro picture, 3 bubbles bigger, most dangerous time in US financial history

5:00 Era of bailouts is over, government debt at breaking point

8:10 Are we past the point of no return?

9:00 US debt at 120% of GDP, virtually all countries at this level defaulted

15:55 Gold discussion: doubled since last appearance 18 months ago

20:54 Gold could more than double to $8,500+ if crisis hits

24:27 Gold miners vs gold: developers trading at 20% of intrinsic value

30:36 Misconceptions about gold's rise: tariffs, Chinese central bank, ETFs

34:04 Bitcoin

39:33 Fed will be trapped, lose control of interest rates in stagflation scenario

42:00 Lessons from David Swensen

45:19 Closing remarks

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for the debut of his weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Markets hit all-time highs this week before pulling back sharply as the Fed ended quantitative tightening amid growing liquidity stress in money markets—echoing the dangerous conditions of November 2018 when Chairman Powell nearly crashed the system. Whalen warns we're seeing the same warning signs: tightening liquidity, basis trades breaking down, and a Fed flying blind without proper tools to measure reserve availability. Meanwhile, cracks are appearing across markets—from Bitcoin's retreat below $100k to BlackRock's stunning 100% writedown on private debt it valued at par just weeks ago.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction: New weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen"

0:42 - Markets this week: biggest decline since April

2:34 - Treasury General Account and bank reserves

6:50 - December rate cut now 50-50 toss up

8:14 - Economy still bubbling along robustly

8:39 - If big sell-off, Fed will start QE again

10:40 - Is it November 2018 all over again?

14:38 - Are we setting up for another repo crisis?

17:27 - Bitcoin fell below $95,000 - what's it signaling?

20:50 - Gold discussion: most investors under-invested

24:44 - Private credit concerns

25:48 - Government shutdown resolution

28:29 - Mortgage markets and housing policy

30:00 - Closing remarks and what to watch next week

James Lavish, co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joins Episode 305 of the Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Lavish explains how the government shutdown has locked nearly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account, draining liquidity from financial systems and raising concerns about a 2019-style repo crisis as bank reserves fall to dangerous levels. He argues Americans have lost 25% of their purchasing power from 2020 to 2025, and while technology should bring deflation, we instead have persistent 3% inflation because it's necessary to manage $38 trillion in debt through currency debasement. Lavish explains the K-shaped economy where the top 1% gained 8X wealth since 1990 versus 4X for the bottom 50%, noting commercial real estate defaults are spiking and subprime auto lenders are collapsing. When the TGA liquidity eventually floods back into markets, he warns not to mistake it for prosperity—it's currency debasement, which is why he recommends positioning in hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and real estate. The Fed is trapped between dual mandates with no way out, and while AI stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves risking a market shock, his message is clear: own assets because he's not bullish on the economy, he's bearish on the currency.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish

The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/

The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction and welcome

1:20 - Big picture macro view: Fed battling dual mandates

4:30 - Stagflation risk: prices rising as economy rolls over

5:10 - Government shutdown removing liquidity from markets

7:19 - Treasury General Account (TGA) explained

14:21 - 2019 repo crisis explained

21:31 - Current concerns about overnight lending market

26:18 - Will Fed do QE again?

29:03 - Credit markets

29:07 - K-shaped economy explained

37:08 - Position for currency deterioration

38:28 - Why people think 2% inflation is normal

40:11 - Lost 25% purchasing power from 2020 to 2025

40:41 - Technology should bring deflation, not inflation

46:30 - Why we need inflation: $38 trillion debt problem

50:59 - What's keeping James up at night

55:27 - Closing remarks and contact information

Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 304. Ed Dowd argues we're already in a technical recession, with the stock market bubble driven by just seven stocks masking underlying economic weakness as housing rolls over, layoffs accelerate at Amazon and UPS, and credit markets tighten. He warns that insider selling is at unprecedented levels as institutions distribute to retail investors in classic "FOMO" behavior, while the equal-weighted S&P has gone nowhere since January. Dowd criticizes the Trump administration for gaslighting Americans about the economy instead of communicating the Biden hangover from illegal immigration and deficit spending, explains China is exporting deflation due to their real estate crisis and 20 years of excess housing inventory, and predicts a deflation scare with oil plummeting to $30 before the Fed intervenes with massive QE. He recommends raising cash and moving into treasuries like Warren Buffett, expects the dollar to rip as liquidity dries up globally, sees gold hitting $10,000 by 2030 as central banks accumulate it, and warns Bitcoin will go much lower as it's underperforming treasuries—an early warning indicator of the risk-off environment ahead.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/

US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm?

Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction and welcome

1:09 - Macro view

5:00 - Credit markets tightening, distribution phase of stock market, Trump administration gaslighting about economy

7:00 - China at a crossroads: real estate crisis going acute

7:55 - China exporting deflation, depreciating the yuan

9:00 - Tariffs are deflationary

10:00 - Risk-off environment is coming

11:00 - Dollar outlook

12:40 - Risk off environment: flight to safety into treasuries

14:20 - Three Hindenburg omens: market breadth disaster

15:00 - Gold discussion: long-term bullish, going to $10,000 by 2030

17:00 - AI bubble: momentum and administration fomenting it

22:20 - Retail FOMO buying: sign of unhealthy market

24:32 - Fed cutting but still behind the curve

27:00 - Credit markets sniffing out deflation scare

30:00 - 1970s stagflation period: inflation/deflation yo-yo

30:37 - Oil going to $30: China internal consumption plummeted

33:43 - Gaslighting about the economy: people feel the reality

35:30 - China facing crossroads and crisis starting in 2020

40:00 - Dollar liquidity issue: people scrambling for dollars

40:40 - Treasury Secretary Bessent can term out debt during recession

41:03 - Yellen front-loaded debt, significance of terming it out

42:30 - Immigration

48:40 - 100% probability we're in recession now

49:30 - How to be allocated: raise cash for flexibility

50:40 - Japan carry trade could blow up at any moment

52:00 - What makes Ed optimistic: asset prices will come down

54:07 - Where to find Ed's work and research

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns for an in-person conversation for episode 303. Whalen warns that stocks and crypto are slowing down as they run out of buyers, while real estate pain continues with older assets selling at discounts and more trouble ahead for private equity and private credit. He attributes Zohran Mamdani's NYC mayoral victory to inflation-driven affordability concerns, predicts a home price correction by 2027-28, and expects continued corporate exodus from New York City as long-term leases roll off. Whalen criticizes the Fed for pushing home prices up 50% since COVID and failing their mandate on price stability, discusses widespread fraud in private credit markets, and highlights Bank of America's duration risk mistakes compared to JPMorgan and Citi. He's currently focused on gold and junior mining stocks, explaining the "debasement trade" as central banks worldwide shift to gold as their primary reserve asset, while predicting crypto will "go bye-bye" and calling stablecoins a dead end.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Timestamps:

0:00 - Welcome and introduction

1:02 - Reaction to Mamdani election

2:03 - Is this the product of inflation?

2:10 - Inflation driving affordability issues, Fed's failure

2:54 - Heading into correction in home prices by 2027-28

5:26 - How mortgage lenders set rates vs. bond market

6:33 - Will we see a housing emergency declared?

12:08 - Outlook for New York for next four years

14:59 - Big picture view: stocks and crypto slowing down

15:30 - Pain in real estate, private equity, and private credit

20:37 - Duration risk story at banks

27:47 - Will we get December rate cut?

29:17 - Fed funds rate targeting piece

32:49 - Chris's portfolio: taking acorns off the table

35:59 - The debasement trade

39:36 - Crypto going bye-bye, stable coins a dead end

42:05 - Closing remarks