George Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, lays out his big theme for 2026: rotation. George argues that the debasement trade is the dominant macro narrative, with the bill coming due for decades of reckless fiscal and monetary policy. He calls the 60/40 portfolio dead, urging investors to dump bonds and buy gold, noting that gold miners could double in 12 months if prices hold. He makes the case that the AI trade is over. Noble sees energy as one of the most compelling opportunities. He expects emerging markets and foreign equities to continue outperforming the US, small caps to beat large caps, and the equal-weight S&P to trounce the cap-weighted index. His bottom line for investors: get out of bonds, buy gold, add energy, put money abroad, and switch from cap-weighted to equal-weight.

Links:

George Noble's Independent Research Conference: https://noble-capevents.com/

X: https://x.com/gnoble79

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and intro to George Noble

1:17 The debasement trade: The big macro picture

3:42 The bill is coming due for decades of reckless policy

5:10 The US government's math doesn't work — bond yields way too low

6:55 2026 theme: Rotation — don't worship the altar of price

7:06 The macro backdrop and where to be allocated

7:33 US exceptionalism is fading — fiscal pulse now in Europe

8:45 China outperforming the US — and it's going to continue

9:48 Rotation out of US dollar-based assets

11:27 Long bond headed north of 5%? Implications for housing

13:27 Credit spreads tight, inflationary boom possible

14:50 The bond market measured in gold — it's crashing

16:26 The 60/40 portfolio is dead

16:55 Inflation: People don't live on rate of change, they live on prices

18:55 The K-shaped economy and rising prices everywhere

20:41 Gold update: You cannot be bullish enough

22:30 The song remains the same — macro drivers still in play

24:04 Gold miners could double in 12 months

25:21 Don't get caught up in short-term thinking

26:45 The Dunning-Kruger Institute of Finance

28:48 The death of speculation

29:26 Is it a stock picker's market again?

30:30 The Japan analogy: MAG 7 is today's Japan 1989

32:16 Just avoid MAG 7 and you'll outperform

33:23 Recency bias and why consensus is stuck

34:42 George is not bearish — he's rotating

35:12 Energy: Only 3% of the S&P — massively out of favor

37:46 Oil prices and the case for energy equities

39:14 Venezuela is a nothing burger — fade the hot takes

40:41 AI trade is a short: Nvidia, Tesla, software

43:05 SaaSmageddon and ServiceNow at 73x earnings

45:51 Rotation: The theme in one word

46:11 What should the average investor do?

48:36 The playbook: Equal weight, gold, energy, foreign markets, no bonds

49:19 March 11th conference

53:00 Closing

Alex Gurevich, founder and Chief Investment Officer of HonTe Investments, a Bay Area-based investment management firm, and the author of The Next Perfect Trade and Wall Street Journal bestseller The Trades of March 2020, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Gurevich discuss his updated thesis on interest rates, deflation, and the forces shaping markets. He argues that zero interest rates are "not off the table" — and that the probability is far higher than the market is pricing. He sees labor market deterioration happening quietly under the surface, warning that "the less visible it is, the worse it's probably going to be" because policymakers won't act until it's too late. Unlike the consensus worried about inflation, Alex is firmly in the deflation camp, though he notes any deflation can be countered by fiscal stimulus — he just doesn't think the government will act aggressively enough given how burned they were by the post-COVID inflation. He also discusses his newly released second edition of "The Next Perfect Trade," explaining why he kept the original text intact to maintain intellectual honesty about what worked and what didn't over the past decade. He declares the 40-year bond bull market "definitively over," shares his framework on carry as an underappreciated edge, and offers a fascinating take on AI's future energy demands potentially exceeding the output of the sun.

Links:

Book: https://www.amazon.com/Next-Perfect-Trade-Magic-Necessity/dp/1544550014/

X: https://x.com/agurevich23

Website: https://honteinv.com/

0:00 Welcome and congratulations on the second edition

1:19 The Next Perfect Trade — second edition out now

2:01 Setting the table: The macro view today

3:30 All the fireworks have been in precious metals

4:08 Interest rates are "pinned in confusion"

4:45 Alex's view: Leaning toward zero rates

5:40 Labor market deterioration — the less visible, the worse it will be

7:20 The behavior of rates during Fed cutting cycles

8:58 What zero rates would mean for the economy

9:36 The relationship between stocks, jobs, rates, and growth is broken

11:30 Could we have strong growth and weak jobs simultaneously?

13:13 Deflation, not inflation

14:10 The pendulum: Deflation, then too much stimulus, then inflation again

15:25 Recency bias from COVID stimulus keeping government cautious

16:02 Precious metals: What does the move signal?

18:41 Why the second edition? Intellectual honesty

20:29 Admitting mistakes: "It was arrogant of me"

23:12 Growth as a trader — recognizing your weaknesses

24:08 The one chart to rule them all — is the 40-year bond bull market over?

25:41 Bull markets break up before they break down

27:19 The 2020 bond breakout should have been a warning

29:47 The underappreciated power of carry

32:04 Be the casino, not the gambler

33:30 The corporate borrowing rate indicator

36:27 Why the indicator broke down in 2021-23

38:26 Has the macro investing world changed?

39:52 The most underappreciated force in macro right now

42:46 AI's energy demand will overwhelm all sources — even fusion

45:18 Is energy the trade?

46:55 The perfect trade: Japan is getting interesting

48:40 Where to find Alex and parting thoughts

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, calling him "the only choice" and a "classic hawk" who won't be afraid to lecture Congress on the link between deficits and inflation — something no Fed chair has done in 30 years. Chris explains why Warsh will likely shrink the balance sheet while giving Trump one or two rate cuts, and predicts the nomination may actually keep Powell on the board through 2028 just to deprive Trump of another conservative seat. On markets, Chris sees a more boring year ahead after 2025's extraordinary run, with gold and silver due for a 10-15% correction — though the bull market isn't over. He notes that crypto platforms like Hyperliquid are now trading precious metals, signaling money flowing from crypto into the "shiny object that's moving most." Chris also warns that private equity is becoming a major risk, with one in five firms now illiquid or in default, representing hundreds of billions in potential bank losses.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome

1:09 Kevin Warsh nominated as Fed Chair — Chris's reaction

2:15 Warsh will have to build consensus on the FOMC

3:01 Warsh won't be afraid to link deficits and inflation

3:15 Will Warsh be more hawkish?

4:26 Warsh during the financial crisis — what to expect

5:25 The martyrdom of Jerome Powell: Yellen and Powell did too much

6:04 Hard decisions the market won't like

6:15 A conservative Fed puts pressure back on Congress

7:21 Will Trump like Warsh lecturing on deficits?

7:49 Powell refusing to say if he'll stay as governor

9:32 Is staying on the board political?

10:32 What will Powell's legacy be?

12:09 The state of the Fed's balance sheet: Poor

13:21 Central banks should keep assets short — the Fed didn't

14:15 Powell's comments on the deficit being "unsustainable"

16:08 Markets: S&P briefly hit 7000

17:47 Credit-sensitive stocks under pressure, metals outperforming

18:41 Labor market and layoffs: Amazon, UPS, FedEx

19:19 Personnel costs and inflation

19:42 Gold to $5,600, silver to $110 — correction coming?

20:50 Crypto platforms now trading gold and silver

22:21 Central bank gold holdings now exceed foreign Treasury holdings

24:26 Where Chris is putting his money

24:43 WGA 50 bank rankings preview

26:57 Private equity risk: 1 in 5 firms illiquid or in default

28:29 AI companies leveraged to their eyebrows

28:50 Viewer mail: Taking profits on Annaly?

32:29 Parting thoughts: Earnings, Warsh, and what's ahead

34:47 Closing

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, breaks down why the Fed's decision to pause was both premature and political, arguing Powell is "committing policy errors to quietly dig at the administration." She explains why the Fed should have cut today — and why she believes we need 100 basis points of cuts given deteriorating labor market data that Powell is choosing to ignore. Danielle unpacks the DOJ subpoena drama, revealing that betting markets dropped Powell's odds of leaving by August from 90% to 60% after the charges, and she believes he's now "enjoying the cat and mouse" with Trump. She revisits her open letter calling for the FOMC to elect Chris Waller as chair, explains why Rick Rieder would be "inviting the fox into the hen house," and shares her bold prediction: unemployment will have a 6 handle within a year. Plus, she discusses the hidden stress signals in Buy Now Pay Later data and why gold is behaving like a "meme stock."

Links:

Danielle's open letter: https://quillintelligence.com/2025/12/10/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-2/

Danielle's open letter part 2: https://quillintelligence.com/2026/01/22/the-weekly-quill-open-letter-ii-public/

Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth

Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQI

Fed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome

1:05 The Powell subpoena: Danielle's reaction

3:35 Betting markets: Powell leaving odds dropped

4:51 Powell is the cat, Trump is the mouse

5:54 Why Powell is being political by NOT cutting rates

6:35 How Powell moved the goalposts on rate probability

7:32 The contradiction: Integrity vs. ignoring the American people

8:33 Financial conditions are easy because of passive investing, not the Fed

9:19 The shutdown has affected data integrity

10:05 Outlook for the year: Rate cuts coming?

10:50 Conference Board labor differential — recession signal

12:06 Should he have cut today? Yes. We need 100 basis points of cuts

12:52 Open Letter Part Two: Why the FOMC should have elected Chris Waller

15:03 Rick Rieder: Inviting the fox into the hen house?

16:34 Who will be the next Fed chair?

17:35 What we don't understand about Fed chair transitions

19:04 The questions reporters should have asked Powell

21:29 Hidden signal: Google searches for "file unemployment" keep rising

22:28 Buy Now Pay Later for dental bills and utilities — the stress is real

25:41 Gen Z risk appetite and the environment that shapes investors

26:45 Gold is a meme now

29:01 DoubleLine roundtable: Long utilities, short financials

31:14 Commercial real estate capitulation and bankruptcies

32:14 Bold prediction: Unemployment will have a 6 handle by next year

33:20 Parting thoughts: Don't forget about your neighbors

33:45 Closing

In this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down President Trump's Davos speech, noting that despite promises on housing affordability, the administration has no real plan to lower prices — and Trump explicitly said he doesn't want home prices to fall. Chris explains why that won't matter: hot markets like San Diego and Florida are already cooling, and he predicts a significant correction by 2028 that could push prices back to 2020-21 levels, leaving every mortgage made since COVID underwater. He warns that Trump will "run the economy hot" to win the midterms, with consequences to pay afterward. On rates, Chris explains why long-term yields keep rising despite Fed cuts and what happens if a new Fed chairman loses an FOMC vote. He also discusses gold's march toward $5,000, calling it "the return of gold" as central banks worldwide reverse 70 years of policy, and weighs in on the FDIC's approval of Ford and GM to establish deposit-taking banks.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira802

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome and intro

0:50 Trump at Davos: Greenland walkback and housing

2:55 The two sides of housing: Owners vs. buyers

4:00 401(k) withdrawals for down payments — does it help?

5:00 Why stoking demand pushes prices higher

6:17 Hot markets cool first: San Diego, Florida, Carolinas

7:58 Demographics and housing: Boomers vs. millennials

8:37 Rate cuts coming and the 2028 correction

9:35 What happens if prices fall 20%? Every post-COVID loan underwater

10:10 Signs to watch for a broader market shift in 2026

12:36 Why long-term rates rise when the Fed cuts

14:15 How lenders are feeling right now

15:14 Gold closing in on $5,000

16:28 Trump will run the economy hot for the midterms

18:05 You pay for it after the election

18:51 What if the new Fed chair loses an FOMC vote?

21:00 What should the Fed actually be doing?

22:45 The asymmetry of gold and silver investments

26:32 The return of gold: Central banks reverse 70 years of policy

27:06 Peter Schiff's crisis call — does Chris buy it?

28:36 FDIC approves Ford and GM banks — what it means

32:46 Viewer mail: Gold as a hedge for real estate

33:45 Viewer mail: Stable coins debate

35:30 Closing

In this special in-person interview, Jim Rickards breaks down why the Trump administration is far more strategic than the media portrays, explaining the "flood the zone" tactic and Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" approach to bringing down the debt-to-GDP ratio. Jim dismantles the popular "debasement trade" narrative, revealing that foreign central banks are not dumping Treasuries and that the real risk lies in the Eurodollar market and the $1 quadrillion derivatives system underpinning global finance. He warns that stablecoins are quietly hoarding Treasury bills needed for collateral — and the risk of fraud waiting to blow up. On gold, Jim explains why $5,000 is just the beginning, making the case for $10,000 to $25,000 based on historical precedent from the 1970s when the dollar lost 94% of its value measured in gold. He also offers a bold prediction: the potential breakup of NATO as geopolitical alliances fracture under pressure.

More about Rickards:

Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy, and his newest book MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter.

Links:

http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/

https://x.com/RealJimRickards

Timestamps:

0:00 Intro

2:33 Why the second Trump term is different from the first

5:25 The Heritage Foundation and Project 2025

6:45 Executive orders and legislative wins

8:20 Federal courts and the Supreme Court battles

9:49 The economy: Is it really chaos?

11:32 The national debt: Why $39 trillion isn't the number to watch

13:45 The debt-to-GDP ratio explained

15:30 The Keynesian multiplier and diminishing returns

17:38 How we fixed the debt ratio after WWII (1945-1980)

18:36 Scott Bessent's "Three Arrows" strategy

19:19 The debasement trade: Why it's a false narrative

21:15 Are foreign central banks dumping Treasuries? (No)

23:15 What triggers a financial panic

24:45 How the Fed actually "prints money"

26:30 The Eurodollar market: Where real money comes from

28:00 The $1 quadrillion derivatives market

30:15 Stablecoins: The hidden risk in crypto

33:24 Tether's commercial paper problem

35:37 Gold: Why it's really moving

37:45 The Russian asset freeze and its unintended consequences

42:26 Gold does well in deflation too

45:48 The first Pentagon financial war game (2009)

49:54 Gold's trajectory: $10,000 to $25,000 or higher

51:45 The 1970s: When gold went up 2,700%

55:30 Anchoring bias and why $1,000 jumps get easier

56:33 Jim Rogers on the 50% retracement rule

58:49 Silver: Precious metal meets industrial input

63:21 Bold prediction: The potential breakup of NATO

67:34 Parting thoughts: True diversification

In this wide-ranging conversation, natural resource investor Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, shares his macro outlook, warning that the global economy is weaker than most believe. He explains why he sold 80% of his physical silver after its run from $20 to $75 — and redeployed half into silver mining equities where he sees better leverage if prices hold. Rick breaks down the stark math behind America's $160 trillion in combined liabilities versus $167 trillion in total private net worth, arguing that a "dishonest default" through inflation is inevitable. He shares his framework for knowing when to sell, discusses the coming AI disruption to white-collar jobs, offers his candid views on the Fed and taxation, and provides an update on Battle Bank's national rollout after a 54-month regulatory journey.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome back Rick Rule

0:47 Macro outlook: Global economy weaker than people think

3:19 Precious metals are "absolutely screaming"

4:14 Silver update: The coiled spring has sprung

5:16 What's driving the gold price

6:40 US debt: $160 trillion in liabilities vs $167 trillion net worth

9:48 Honest default vs dishonest default

11:00 Why CPI understates real inflation

13:22 What would fix this? (Hint: Nothing politically viable)

15:29 Where could gold go from here

16:37 Warning: Expect 30-50% drawdowns in this bull market

18:23 Is gold and silver still contrarian?

19:16 Why Rick sold 80% of his physical silver

20:47 Redeploying into silver mining equities

21:57 Rick's investment memo framework

24:00 Silver equities: The leverage opportunity

26:44 Wealth taxes and the nature of taxation

29:52 The New York City socialist experiment

33:35 How we fixed it in the 1970s — five lessons

37:34 Innovation as the way out

38:36 "Take care of yourself — society won't be able to"

42:29 Thoughts on the Federal Reserve

44:45 What would free market interest rates look like

46:56 Signs the economy is deteriorating

49:53 AI and the coming white-collar disruption

54:09 AI: "Greatest memory, no common sense"

55:09 Battle Bank update

58:08 Closing

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen."

In this episode of The Wrap, Whalen breaks down why GSE release is officially off the table after Trump ordered them to buy back their own debt—a move Whalen calls "politics" driven by midterm election fears. He shares his take on crypto as "a polite form of gambling," explains why he prefers gold over silver despite silver's recent run, and dives deep into the housing market's affordability crisis. Whalen reveals his biggest concern for 2026: the hidden risks in private equity and credit, calling them "rancid pools of illiquid, opaque assets" that could cause major bank losses. He also weighs in on the DOJ's subpoena of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, predicting Kevin Warsh will likely be the next Fed chair, and closes with his outlook on markets, the dollar, and bank stocks.

Links:

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/

Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen

Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/

Timestamps:

0:00 Welcome back to the Wrap with Chris Whalen

0:30 GSE release officially off the table?

2:32 The $200 billion announcement is politics

4:08 Political landscape and midterm elections

4:49 Crypto legislation falls apart

5:14 Crypto as speculation vs. gold & silver

6:40 Silver's short squeeze and volatility 8:30

Gold vs. silver as long-term trades

9:07 Copper and Dr. Copper as economic indicator

10:10 Housing policy and affordability crisis

12:10 Will the Fed allow home prices to fall?

14:30 Bank earnings season takeaways

16:50 Consumer delinquencies and economic warning signs

18:12 The hidden risk in private equity and credit

19:48 The "POOP" problem in private lending

21:42 Private credit as a ticking time bomb

22:58 Jerome Powell's DOJ subpoena

24:21 Kevin Warsh and the future of the Fed

27:05 Could the Fed resume MBS purchases?

28:56 Viewer question: NLY/Annaly REIT

30:52 Parting thoughts and 2026 outlook

31:46 Closing