A headline-friendly story says Iran tried to assassinate Donald Trump. We pull the threads and find a different picture: an FBI-driven sting targeting Asif Merchant, two undercover “hitmen,” no money to fund the job, and no credible evidence that Tehran ordered anything. When prosecutors invoke state secrets and the agents who proposed the idea also control the evidence, it raises a hard question—are we building a case for war on a foundation of sand?

From there we widen the lens. Antony Blinken has acknowledged years of Israeli pressure on Washington to strike Iran, and the gap between Obama’s resistance and Trump’s compliance says a lot about how policy gets made. We explore how the Israel lobby, friendly media, and political figures turned a flimsy plot into a narrative arc: Iran is coming for us, so hit first and ask later. Add Marco Rubio’s blunt admission about coordinating with Israel and you see the operational fusion—shared weapons, shared intelligence, shared target sets—that makes de-escalation harder and miscalculation easier.

We also unpack the chaotic state of negotiations. Reports that senior envoys entered talks without nuclear experts help explain the constant moving of goalposts: from enrichment levels to ballistic missiles to regional behavior. When your asks keep changing, diplomacy becomes theater and escalation becomes default. Meanwhile, at home, costs mount—rising fuel prices, an affordability crunch, and the chilling reappearance of draft talk framed as “options on the table.” Younger Americans, skeptical of another proxy war, are asking who benefits and who pays.

If you care about evidence-based policymaking, media literacy, and avoiding a wider regional conflict, this conversation lays out the signals behind the noise. We separate proof from posture, show where the narrative broke from the record, and highlight the off-ramps still available—if leaders have the courage to take them. If this resonated, tap follow, share it with a friend, and leave a quick review so more people can find the show. Your feedback shapes what we dig into next.

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Scott interviews Israeli geopolitical analyst Shaiel Ben-Ephraim about how Israelis are navigating and thinking about this new war with Iran. He and Scott dig into the differences between the US and Israeli government’s objectives in this war, the distinction between the various factions in Israel, how Netanyahu’s goals differ from the IDF’s and more.

Discussed on the show:

• Follow Ben-Ephraim on X
• The Grand Reckoning

Shaiel Ben-Ephraim is an Israeli geopolitical analyst, activist, and podcast host. Subscribe to his show The Grand Reckoning and follow him on Twitter @academic_la

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For more on Scott’s work:

Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org

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Read Scott’s books:

Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com)

Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw

Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0

Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow

And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews

This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com

You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

A president calls for Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” then floats picking the next government and rebuilding a nation of 90 million. We unpack how a mission that began as punitive strikes ballooned into de facto nation building, why timelines quietly stretched from days to months, and how the math of missiles versus interceptors exposes the limits of U.S. power. Along the way, we confront the human cost of a school reduced to graves, the political theater of “this isn’t a war,” and the uncomfortable reality that AI-assisted targeting can accelerate mistakes faster than leaders can correct them.

We dig into the strategic heart of the conflict: Iran’s calculation that a short war only invites another round, its vow to avoid talks it sees as traps, and the emerging use of advanced munitions that test Israeli air defenses. In the Gulf, partners run low on interceptors while Washington shuffles scarce systems from Asia and Europe, weakening deterrence where it’s needed next. We look at how Hezbollah’s front intensifies, why public sentiment in Bahrain cheers hits on U.S. sites, and how a CIA play to leverage Kurdish factions could backfire into Iraqi instability and a broader proxy storm.

The politics at home are just as volatile. Congress shrugs off War Powers limits, giving leaders campaign cover without real accountability, even as flag-draped coffins return. We map the incentives that keep the war going, the industrial constraints that make “infinite ammo” a fantasy, and the scenarios that could flip U.S. basing rights and alliances across the region. Most of all, we focus on the only real off-ramp: narrow the aims, stop the escalation treadmill, and pair verifiable security guarantees with a plan that matches resources to reality.

If you value candid analysis that cuts through talking points, tap follow, share this episode with a friend who cares about U.S. foreign policy, and leave a review with your take on the most realistic off-ramp. Your feedback shapes where we go next.

Ben Dixon of the Union of Orthodox Journalists joined me to discuss the UOC and OCU schism, the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra, and Orthodoxy in America.

Two million people flood central Tehran and an American reporter says he felt safe—so what else about Iran, the protests, and the path to war have we been getting wrong? We open with a vivid, on-the-ground account of Iran’s national day, where politics look more like a citywide festival than a fever dream of chaos, and where conversations about U.S. policy run surprisingly deep. That lived reality sets the stage for a tougher conversation about how narratives harden: claims of mass killings, allegations of organized provocateurs, and the media scaffolding that turns moral outrage into quiet consent for a wider war.

From there we dig into the power dynamics driving escalation. When leaders boast “we attacked first,” and lawmakers argue that an ally’s actions leave Washington “no choice,” the question becomes unavoidable: who actually holds the veto over U.S. war decisions? We examine joint command structures, donor-entangled negotiators, and a Congress that delayed War Powers votes until after strikes began—signals of a constitutional breakdown where authorization lags behind action. Add in a troubling pattern where negotiations serve as cover for surprise attacks and assassinations, and the credibility of diplomacy itself starts to fray.

Finally, we confront how the character of warfare is shifting. Precision stocks deplete; gravity bombs abound. Civilian-dense targets reenter the strike list. War games that once predicted disaster for a U.S.–Iran fight never assumed normalized mass-civilian harm or casual talk of tactical nuclear use. With missiles and drones already exacting real costs across the region, the margin for miscalculation narrows. We ask what escalation looks like if battlefield losses mount, and why Hebrew-language hints of a shocking “surprise” should alarm every policymaker and voter. If you care about media truth, constitutional limits, and the difference between deterrence and drift, this conversation offers a clear-eyed map of where we are—and where we might be headed. Subscribe, share with a friend who follows foreign policy, and leave a review telling us what part of the narrative you’re rethinking.

A war launched with shifting reasons and sliding timelines is a warning sign, not a strategy. We sit down with former Lt. Col. Karen Kwiatkowski to examine how the U.S.–Iran confrontation veered from consent to chaos in days: bungled evacuations, brittle base defenses, and a communications vacuum that can’t cover for poor planning. Karen draws a sharp line from the Iraq playbook—months of theater and “evidence”—to today’s improvisation, arguing that when leaders skip the work of persuasion, they often skip the work of preparation too.

We unpack the divergence between U.S. national interests and the aims of regional allies who gain from fragmentation rather than stability. From alleged false flags to decapitation strikes that harden, not break, an adversary’s will—especially during sacred seasons—Karen explains why social cohesion, religion, and memory matter in war as much as missiles and jets. We probe the culture inside the Pentagon, where candor fades as rank rises, and how that dynamic leaves troops exposed in trailers instead of layered defenses while press briefings promise “every precaution.”

The conversation gets unflinching about costs: industrial limits that can’t sustain a long fight, political timelines that breed wishful thinking, and a post-failure push for massive “rebuild” budgets that reward the very errors that caused the losses. Yet there’s a path forward. We chart a reset built on real national security—clear objectives, lawful authority, matched means, and diplomacy that lowers the premium on force. If America wants fewer funerals and fewer blank checks, it needs consent, competence, and clarity at the core of policy.

If this resonated, follow the show, share it with a friend who cares about foreign policy, and leave a review with your biggest takeaway so we can keep these conversations sharp and useful.

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Scott interviews author and scholar Robert Pape about the insights he’s gained from his decades of extensive research into the strategic effectiveness of air power in war. Pape argues that, while modern precision bombs are remarkable at carrying out their tactical functions, they alone are not enough to win wars. And further, the obsession with tactical bombing campaigns can distract decision-makers from the political dynamics that primarily determine how wars end.

Discussed on the show:

• Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War by Robert A. Pape
• The Escalation Trap

Robert A. Pape is Professor of Political Science and Director of the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats and the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. Follow him on Twitter @ProfessorPape

Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com

Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show!

For more on Scott’s work:

Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org

Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show

Read Scott’s books:

Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com)

Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw

Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0

Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow

And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews

This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com

You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

Download Audio.

Scott interviews Matthew Hoh about an article he just wrote debunking the old lie, that is being pushed once again, that the Iranian government helped kill hundreds of American soldiers by supplying critical parts for armor-piercing roadside IEDs. He and Scott also discuss how insane Trump’s decision to attack Iran is.

Discussed on the show:

• “They Are Still Lying About Iraq” (Antiwar.com)
• The Occupation: War and Resistance in Iraq by Patrick Cockburn
• “Iraq War II, Part 10: Soda Straws and EFPs” (Substack)

Matthew Hoh is associate director at the Eisenhower Media Network and formerly worked for the U.S. State Department. Hoh received the Ridenhour Prize Recipient for Truth Telling in 2010. Subscribe to his Substack and follow him on Twitter @MatthewPHoh

Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com

Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show!

For more on Scott’s work:

Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org

Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show

Read Scott’s books:

Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com)

Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw

Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0

Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow

And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews

This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com

You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow