A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sounds like a clean, decisive move until you run it through the real world: geography, international law, ship insurance, and the uncomfortable question of what happens when the other side shoots back. We sit down with Lt Col Karen Kwiatkowski to parse Trump’s threat to interdict ships tied to Iranian oil and why “the greatest navy in the world” is not the same thing as a navy that can safely enforce a blockade in a narrow, heavily contested chokepoint.

We dig into the operational side of maritime power, from US shipbuilding constraints to costly programs that never matched a realistic strategy. Karen explains why uncertainty is the real market killer: mines do not even have to be confirmed to spike insurance rates, freeze tanker traffic, and disrupt the global supply chain. We also ask what it means to stop third country vessels in international waters, and why targeting tankers linked to China, India, Pakistan, Japan, or South Korea could blow up relationships the US has spent decades trying to build across Asia.

Then we widen the lens to diplomacy and messaging. We question why nuclear negotiations would be handled without deep technical expertise, how Israel’s priorities shape US posture toward Iran, and why an EMP scare claim on cable news collapses under basic scrutiny of incentives, treaty history, and inspection records. We close with a blunt conversation about propaganda, legitimacy, and the strange politics of personality cult symbols, including Trump’s AI “Jesus” image and what it signals about power at home and credibility abroad. If this conversation helps you think clearer, subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review so more people can find it.

Download Audio.

Scott interviews Matt Wolfson about an article he recently wrote about the United Arab Emirates. Wolfson argues that the US and Israel have helped build up the UAE into a regional power with an increasingly interventionist foreign policy of its own.

Discussed on the show:

• “The United Arab Emirates: America and Israel’s Frankenstein Monster” (The Libertarian Institute)
• “In Strategic Shift, U.S. Draws Closer to Yemeni Rebels” (Wall Street Journal)
• “US maintains intelligence relationship with Houthis” (Al-Monitor)
• “U.S. intelligence report says key gulf ally meddled in American politics” (Washington Post)

Matt Wolfson is an investigative journalist whose work has appeared in The American Conservative, The Epoch Times, Restoration of America News, and many others. Follow him on Twitter (X) @Oppo__Research and find his full body of work at his website.

Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com

Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show!

For more on Scott’s work:

Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org

Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show

Read Scott’s books:

Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com)

Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw

Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0

Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow

And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews

This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com

You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

The fastest way to understand the Iran war scare isn’t cable news hype, it’s leverage. We sit down with Larry Johnson to map what Tehran is demanding, why Washington looks desperate for an exit plan, and how a single chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, can squeeze the global economy. If ships need to pay a steep user fee to move in and out of the Persian Gulf, the story instantly becomes bigger than battlefield headlines: it’s oil prices, shipping risk, inflation pressure, and a potential global recession.

We also pressure-test Trump’s public posture that Iran “has no cards” against the hard constraints on escalation. We talk through why naval and ground options look limited, why crossing the nuclear line would be globally destabilizing, and how sanctions and frozen assets have become the real bargaining table. Larry lays out a plausible face-saving deal where sanctions are lifted, assets are released, and Iran returns to JCPOA-style enrichment limits and intrusive inspections, while still refusing to surrender its core rights.

Then we widen the lens to the alliance and war system around it: NATO strain, Israel’s growing political backlash, and what the Middle East focus means for Ukraine as Russia advances and Western air defense and missile inventories run thin. If you’re searching for clear geopolitical analysis on Iran negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz, US foreign policy, NATO cohesion, and the future of Ukraine, this conversation connects the dots. Subscribe, share this with a friend who follows world affairs, and leave a review. What do you think is the most misunderstood piece of leverage right now?

John and I continue to read and comment on Rules for Radicals

Download Audio.

Scott brought Robert Pape of the University of Chicago back to discuss the attempted ceasefire that went into effect on Wednesday night. Pape explains why this is not actually a meaningful step away from the escalation to a full-on war that he’s long been warning about. He also talks about how this is war is cementing Iran’s status as a world power and why he expects the Iranians to abandon their previous stance, begin earnestly pursuing nuclear weapons and attain them quickly.

Discussed on the show:

• “The Pause That Isn’t: Why the Iran Ceasefire Changes Everything” (The Escalation Trap)
• “The War Is Turning Iran Into a Major World Power” (The New York Times)

Robert A. Pape is Professor of Political Science and Director of the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats and the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. Follow him on Twitter @ProfessorPape

Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com

Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show!

For more on Scott’s work:

Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org

Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show

Read Scott’s books:

Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com)

Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw

Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0

Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow

And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews

This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com

You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

“We’re winning” is easy to post. It’s much harder to define when the missiles keep flying, the Strait of Hormuz becomes a choke point, and the only clear destination seems to be a negotiation table. We sit down with Chief Fritz, a former Command Chief Master Sergeant, to pressure test the confidence, separate opinion from fact, and ask the uncomfortable question: if the U.S. is dominating Iran, why does the strategy feel so improvised?

We talk through the military reality behind an air campaign, including readiness, munitions, interceptors, and what an attrition war looks like when Iran can still strike bases and allies across the region. Chief Fritz draws direct parallels to the Iraq War playbook, arguing that shifting rationales and inexperienced leadership can push the country into a conflict without a clear end state. We also explore escalation risks, including whether nuclear weapons are a real fear, and why Iran’s ballistic missile program functions as a central deterrent.

Then we go where most coverage avoids: who benefits, who pays, and who bleeds. We discuss claims that the war is being waged primarily on behalf of Israel, the role of lobbying and Pentagon influence, and what it means for enlisted men and women who may be ordered into harm’s way. If you care about U.S. foreign policy, the Iran war, Israel-Gaza spillover risks, oil prices, and the lessons of Iraq, this is a necessary listen. Subscribe, share with a friend, and leave a review with your biggest takeaway.

Iran isn’t just trading blows with the US and Israel. According to our guest, the fight is turning fixed American advantages like bases, radars, and regional headquarters into fragile targets, forcing withdrawals and relocations across the Middle East. We walk through what it means when places like Al-Udeid, Bahrain’s Fifth Fleet footprint, and multiple high-end radar sites take hits and why “no massive casualties” does not automatically mean “no massive damage.”

From there, we connect the battlefield to the economy. Oil and LNG infrastructure disruption is framed as the kind of shock that can ripple into global inflation, shipping risk, and political pressure at home, especially with the Strait of Hormuz looming over everything. We also unpack Trump’s public threats and sudden delays, asking whether the messaging is about real negotiations or simply buying time for major reinforcements like a Marine Expeditionary Unit to get into position.

Then we get brutally practical about military feasibility. Could the US actually seize Karg Island or “open” the Strait of Hormuz with limited forces? We pressure-test WWII analogies, talk terrain and coastal defenses, and look at why mines, drones, fast-attack craft, and underwater threats make “quick fixes” unlikely. Finally, we dig into troop morale, the aircraft carrier fire controversy, and the harder constraint that rarely makes headlines: interceptor depletion, missile production limits, and rare earth mineral supply chain problems.

If you care about the Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz, US military readiness, oil prices, and what escalation looks like when logistics are strained, this conversation is for you. Subscribe, share this with a friend who follows geopolitics, and leave a review with your take: do you think this ends with de-escalation or a wider regional war?