This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the fragile peace in hot wars and trade wars.

There is a sense of finality about Trump's latest attempts to get Putin and Zelensky to agree on ceasefire terms. Trump is losing patience with both parties. The choice of Budapest as the location for Trump and Putin's meeting was no coincidence.

Meanwhile, Trump's on-and-off talks with Xi seem to be on again. The prospect of an emergent Grand Bargain remains on the table, giving equity markets hope.

Asset markets saw a significant rotation on Tuesday, with a dramatic collapse in precious metals prices and a spike in bond prices, leading to a decline in key sovereign yields. Helpful for both Rachel Reeves and Scott Bessent.

However, it remains unclear if this is just a short-term price correction in gold or a longer-term structural shift. Should investors, still fearful of the pending fiat collapse, buy the dip in precious metals?

Similarly, one needs to ask why bond yields are falling. Jeremy doesn't think there is any reassessment of governments' fiscal responsibility, but rather that it reflects worries about slowing economies or worsening credit quality in private markets.

Regarding the ongoing debate on the AI bubble, they discuss whether former UK deputy PM Nick Clegg can add any value to the issue. What do you think?

Looking ahead, Jeremy covers imminent US and Japanese inflation data and also notes the prospect for updates from the Mag Seven NASDAQ giants over the coming few weeks.

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This week, Jeremy and Gareth consider Trump's quick switch from declaring peace in the Middle East to opening a (new) trade war with China - which has almost as quickly subsided, with the Trump/Xi meeting now "back on".

Jeremy highlights the ongoing strength of gold - FOMO bubble or long-term trend driven by debasement of currencies ? And the great rewards of being a gold miner - with unparalleled revenue per ounce, and costs of drilling and transport (often oil-based) in decline.

Bitcoin hasn't participated in the recent gold rally - although over a longer timeframe than the last few months, it has hugely outperformed. Perhaps both can be safe havens in a world of unaffordable government debt and spiralling-down currencies ?

Meanwhile equity markets have been relatively stable, although slightly spooked by the current pressure on US lenders, driven by greater-than-apparent losses flowing from a number of insolvencies that shouldn't have rippled the way they have.

Gareth talks about Gear4Music, Sanderson Design Group and Oxford Metrics, all of which this week have highlighted decent trading (or better) along with the benefit of much cost-control, in each case well received by investors.

Next week we have Chinese growth data and UK inflation which could exceed 4% for the first time in over a year. The end of the week will bring US inflation (they're still publishing despite the government shutdown) - anything much above 3.0% will both rattle markets and possibly cost someone at the Bureau of Labor and Statistics their job. Finally, don't forget Japan...Friday also brings their latest inflation print; as always we better hope there's nothing too surprising.

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the highlights of the last week in financial markets.

Gold (and other precious metals) move to all-time highs, representing a foot on the brake. What are they worried about? Well, there are emerging risks around credit conditions in private markets and increasing concerns that the AI capex cycle is turning into a fully fledged bubble, one that Jeff Bezos, no less, called a good bubble. Jeremy mentioned the under-reported British Bicycle Bubble of the 1890s. See link for details: https://www.historyhit.com/the-great-british-bicycle-bubble-of-1896/

Trump, the peacemaker, is making progress in the Middle East, but not in time to win this year's Nobel Peace Prize. However, the consequences for any deal could involve much lower oil prices and maybe a disruption to the ascent of precious metals prices.

Gareth discusses the UK car loan mis-selling update from the FCA, its impact on Vertu Motors and Secure Trust, and this week's results from Beeks Financial Cloud.

Looking forward, the macro news includes trade and inflation data from China, as well as employment and GDP data from the UK.

With the US government shut down, there are question marks over what to expect from the US market or whether the inflation data on October 15th will even be released.

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After a short break, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the current state of markets as we head into Q4 of 2025. Jeremy suggests that the US recession has been cancelled, and while the music is playing, equity investors feel compelled to dance.

Over Q3, the $ has stabilised and the £ has weakened. The US is "boom baby boom", while the UK is flatlining with no economic growth and a long wait for the Budget on November 26th.

The primary driver of growth in the US is a vast circular investment pattern in AI data centres. With increasing political pressure, the Fed is being compelled to initiate a rate-cutting cycle. However, AI might be a world-changing technological revolution, but as the dot-com bubble showed us, it can also be a financial bubble.

In a week that Open-AI was valued at $500bn Gareth talks about the similarities to the early 2000s.

To complete the bearish take, there are also some early signs of stress in the US credit sector, which some compare to the early stages of the GFC.

Gareth covers updates from some UK companies, including Pharos Energy, Watkin Jones, and Xaar, that continue to show resilient performance.

Finally, there are signs of life in the IPO market as Beauty Tech begins life as a new £300m market cap company, which might be the first of several new issues on their way to the London market in the coming months.

Looking forward, the US government shutdown has put the production of economic data in doubt, with the inflation numbers for October 15th also in question.

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Gareth and Jeremy discuss the key factors that have impacted financial markets over the past week and take a look ahead to what lies ahead for investors.

Bond markets got the yips over talks of IMF visits for France and the UK. However, no one informed the FX market, and the value of the £ remained solid, helped in part by the weakening of the $. However, it's all relative, and the real value of things is reflected in gold and other real assets.

US labour markets showed more signs of weakness, but with persistent inflation.

US tech giants continue to dominate, but with little scrutiny of the returns that their substantial AI capital expenditures might yield. Oracle was in the spotlight this week, with some extraordinary results, launching its founder back into the top spot on the world's richest person leader board.

Despite our volatile politics, UK equities remain in demand, and risk assets more broadly remain in good fettle.

The long wait for the UK Budget might be because they are working on a cunning plan for growth, or they are simply waiting for things to improve. Of course, both could be true. Either way is a frustrating wait.

Meanwhile, the results and updates offer a mixed bag, indicating that the UK consumer remains active.

Jeremy offers a view on Treatt's fall from grace and its Board's disappointing acceptance of the modestly pitched PE offer the company received this week.

Looking ahead, the main focus will be on the Fed's rate decision, where the overwhelming expectation is for a 25 bps cut to 4.25%.

But most people will be more interested in President Trump's second state visit to the UK, which begins on Tuesday. Shhh, nobody mention Jeffrey Epstein.

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This week, Jeremy and Gareth debate Trump's ongoing attacks on the US Fed...perhaps Powell is rolling over, but the recently "sacked" board member Lisa Cook is not. The dollar fell and long bond yields rose, but not by much. France is showing renewed (and traditional) political risk, and the landscape across Europe feels pressured. The UK is once again facing an Autumn of Worry as the budget's tax-more-or-spend-less balancing act seems destined to repeat last year's wheel of fortune on which part of the economy will bear the brunt of new taxes.

In the absence of much small-cap news, the pair consider the misfortunes of Drax, the former coal-fired power generation group, now reinvented doing the "green thing" of burning wood pellets to produce electricity. This week saw news that the FCA is investigating the veracity of some of the their historic claims around the source of these pellets (Drax claims they're mainly "off-cuts" of wood that's already being logged). Whether or not there's an issue, it is possible that the attention might focus minds on the genuine green credentials of shipping wood across the Atlantic to burn it, and then claiming that by capturing the carbon released and then burying it, the whole process is "carbon negative". More broadly, some governments are actively against the renewables agenda, and others actively can't afford it.

Next week we get the excitement of US jobs data - Trump wants data weak enough to prompt a big interest rate cut, but not weak enough to look like a recession. Whoever's in charge of "deciding" the number better tread a careful line, or they might join the jobless stats for the following months.

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This week has been relatively quiet. Gareth and Jeremy discuss the prospects for peace in Europe, the not quite so bad news, but still not good news, about the UK economy and our public finances.

UK inflation and the long end of the gilt market both look like they might be getting out of control. UK inflation has now been above target for 49 out of the last 51 reports. Not conventionally a scenario in which to cut rates, unless, of course, it is transitory.

Jeremy talks about the significance of Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole later today (3 pm UK time) and asks whether he is prepared to die on the hill of inflation and central bank independence.

Gareth then highlights the dramatic warning and share price reaction from WHSmith this week and its potential implications.

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In their usual weekly chat, Jeremy and Gareth cover the macro market news and events with a few thoughts on what it all means.

While the UK reporting season is a bit dull, the US Q2 reports have been more positive. There is a long wait for the Autumn Budget in the UK, and many companies are likely to face a long wait for the inevitable tax increases. Lots of comments out there about gambling taxes, IHT and maybe VAT increases.

Overall, the UK economic news this week has been poor but not calamitous.

Equity markets are moving to all-time highs, with powerful rallies seen from the early April lows, particularly in the US.

Maybe investors are looking ahead to a period of policy easing. However, in bond markets, the message is more mixed. Will the Fed cut rates next month? A stronger-than-expected US PPI print for July indicates that tariff-induced inflation might be on the way, giving Powell a reason, or excuse, to keep rates on hold.

There is a setup for a big showdown between the White House and the Fed. If Powell is focused on his legacy, then he might want to go out as the man who stood up to Trump and defended the economy from inflation, as Paul Volcker rather than Arthur Burns.

Gareth covers the updates from Xaar and Zoo Digital. Jeremy highlights the warning from Shoe Zone and suggests the shares might have overreacted to the news. Almost certainly meaning there is worse to come!

Looking ahead, next week, there is UK inflation data, which might increase to 4%. So, it's not the typical environment in which to cut rates.

We also have Japan's inflation data, which is expected to remain at a tricky 3.3%.

The main event is likely to be the outcome of the talks in Alaska. Will Trump and Putin move the lines on the map of Europe?

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