Foreign ownership of U.S. farmland is a political lightning rod, but economist Danny Munch from the American Farm Bureau Federation walks through what the data actually says. Using USDA’s AFIDA reports, he explains that only about 3.61% of privately held U.S. ag land (roughly 48–49 million acres) is foreign-owned, and more than 60% of that is held by allies like Canada, the Netherlands, Italy, the U.K., and Germany. Much of the recent growth is tied to renewable energy leases and timber, not foreign governments trying to control food production. China, despite endless headlines, is associated with roughly 277,000 acres—about the size of one average Ohio county—while individual billionaires like Bill Gates own similar amounts and are arguably more influential through narrative and advocacy than acreage. The episode also digs into data gaps, shell companies, national security reviews, and why Farm Bureau members are just as worried about preserving private property rights as they are about foreign flags on land titles.

Episode takeaways:

• Foreign investors own about 3.61% of privately held U.S. agricultural land (≈48.8 million acres), and over 99% of all U.S. land is either U.S.-owned or held by countries generally considered allies.

• Canada alone holds about 15.35 million acres—more than a third of all foreign-owned U.S. ag land—followed by European players like the Netherlands and Italy, with large positions in timber and renewable energy, not row-crop land grabs.

• The big run-up in foreign-owned acres since 2010 is driven heavily by wind and solar leases plus timber, not foreign control of food production; roughly half of foreign-held ag land is forest land.

• China’s ownership, after USDA data corrections, is roughly 277,000 acres, about half of which came through acquisition of a U.S. pork company and another big chunk from a now-blocked Texas renewable project—politically noisy, but tiny in acreage and not a serious land-based strategy for national security.

• AFIDA data is the best tool we have, but it’s messy: weak enforcement, paper forms, limited staffing, and only tracing ownership three tiers deep mean shell structures and Cayman Islands registrations can obscure the “warm bodies” behind some acres.

• Farm Bureau members are increasingly uneasy about private mega-owners and narrative power (think billionaires and foundations) and about bad laws passed for headlines, not solutions—especially when those laws threaten core private property rights and ignore existing tools like CFIUS, which already reviews and can block risky foreign transactions.

American Farm Bureau Federation

https://www.fb.org/

Foreign Investment in U.S. Ag Land – The Latest Numbers

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/foreign-investment-in-u-s-ag-land-the-latest-numbers

How it Works — Understanding the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/how-it-works-understanding-the-committee-on-foreign-investment-in-the-united-states

Foreign Footprints: Trends in U.S. Agricultural Land Ownership

https://www.fb.org/market-intel/foreign-footprints-trends-in-u-s-agricultural-land-ownership

National Land Realty - Buy, Sell, Lease, or Auction Land

https://www.nationalland.com

The National Land Podcast sits down with journalist Chris Kais—former Editor-in-Chief of Outside Magazine and founder of Republic, a new nonprofit newsroom dedicated to America’s public lands. We unpack why the outdoor recreation economy ($1.2–$1.3T) depends on access, how public-lands realities differ East vs. West, and what’s really at stake in debates over federal-to-state land transfers vs. outright sales. We examine recent proposals to open public land for housing, the role of BLM multi-use mandates (recreation, grazing, extraction), and why the recreation economy needs a louder seat at the table. Chris breaks down wilderness area rules, wildfire policy (staffing cuts, prescribed fire, and a push to unify wildland firefighting), and the ripple effects on gateway towns, ranching (millions of cattle on BLM allotments), outfitters, and everyday hunters and anglers. We also touch sustainable timber practices, old-growth forests, and the lived reality of Western access—dispersed camping, trail use, and why once access is lost, it rarely returns. If you own land, want to buy land, or just love being on it, this conversation delivers clear, nonpartisan insight into how policy choices impact recreation, agriculture, and rural economies. Learn more or support Republic at republic.land.

Episode takeaways:

• What Republic is and why a public-lands newsroom matters

• East vs. West access dynamics and why they shape policy debates

• Recreation’s economic weight vs. extraction and grazing interests

• Wildfire staffing, coordination, and forest management realities

• Practical implications for landowners, buyers, and outdoor users

RE:PUBLIC

https://www.republic.land/

Donate to RE:PUBLIC

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

Soybeans are all over the headlines right now but you might not realize they drive American ag—and North Carolina is a prime case study. Charles Hall, Executive Director of the North Carolina Soybean Producers Association, returns to break down what’s actually moving the market this year: tight farm margins, a potential price rally that hasn’t materialized, and a flood of supply with limited in-state storage. We cover why 75% of NC beans are rated good-to-excellent yet profitability remains elusive, how a 1.6M-acre crop meets constrained crush capacity after an ADM plant closure, and why six-hour delivery lines are more than an inconvenience—they’re a cost center.

Hall explains China’s stop-start purchases, Brazil’s rapid expansion (and quality trade-offs), and how shifting tariffs hit farmers twice—at the elevator and on input invoices. We dig into weed resistance, the dicamba drift debate, and why new chemistries take ~20 years to clear regulation. On the opportunity side: renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel are reshaping crush margins by pulling harder on oil than meal. We also hit risk management wins (higher reference prices, improved crop insurance) and why the farm “safety net” still hangs inches above concrete.

If you own rural land, lease ground, or care about U.S. food and fuel security, this episode lays out the stakes—straight.

• Margins are thin: Inputs up, prices not keeping pace; profitability remains “right on the bubble.”

• Big crop, tight logistics: ~1.6M acres in NC; ~75% rated good/excellent; limited storage and recent crush capacity loss create delivery bottlenecks.

• China & tariffs: New-crop U.S. purchases lag; tariff volatility depresses demand and raises input costs (equipment, herbicides, nutrients).

• Brazil vs. U.S.: Brazil gained China share post-2018; quality/logistics trade-offs vs. NC’s local hog & poultry demand.

• Weed resistance is constant: Fewer approved chemistries, dicamba drift concerns; regulatory timelines are long.

• Energy demand shift: Renewable diesel/SAF increasingly drive crush margins via soy oil, not just meal.

• Risk management: Higher soy reference prices and crop insurance tweaks help, but the “safety net” is still low.

North Carolina Soybean Producers Association

https://ncsoy.org/

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

Wayne Cawley turned a neglected high‑density apple orchard into Redemption Farms—a thriving U‑pick and farm‑stand business—by grafting apple varieties, adding strawberries, peaches, pumpkins, and using social media to mobilize customers.

With Sue Hudson (NLR), we dig into financing, location strategy, strawberries, and what it actually takes to make a small farm cash‑flow.

Recorded in Maryland’s Eastern Shore farm country, this episode is a practical blueprint for building a direct‑to‑consumer U‑pick farm—from acquisition and financing to crop selection, infrastructure, and marketing.

Guest: Wayne Cawley, owner of Redemption Farms (Denton, MD)—a 38‑acre, two‑parcel farm split by a major highway—revived an abandoned high‑density apple orchard and layered in strawberries (annual plasticulture), peaches, cherries, plums, blackberries, and a pumpkin patch to give customers something to pick from late April through early November. Guest: Sue Hudson, National Land Realty agent (Maryland), represented Wayne as buyer and breaks down the site selection + permitting pitfalls that make or break roadside agribusinesses.

Redemption Farms (Facebook)

https://www.facebook.com/redemptionfarmsmd/

Redemption Farms (Website)

https://www.redemptionfarms.com/

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

The Midwest row‑crop math is ugly: cash prices are ~$4 corn and ~$10 soybeans against break‑evens near $4.50 (corn) and $11.50 (soybeans). University of Illinois agricultural economist Dr. Gary Schnitkey breaks down what’s driving it and what landowners, operators, and lenders should expect.

What we cover

• Tariffs & trade: No Chinese soybean bookings so far this season; China is favoring Brazil—and financing its export infrastructure. Result: lower U.S. prices now and a tougher long‑run soybean outlook.

• Cost structure: Seed/fertilizer stayed high; machinery costs jumped ~25% (2021–2023). Million‑dollar combines and pricier parts make scale (or equipment sharing) more critical.

• Break‑even reality: ~$4.50 corn / ~$11.50 soybeans vs. ~$4/$10 cash—why margins are negative without aid.

• Government payments: 2024 ad‑hoc aid (~$10B nationally; ~$37/acre in IL) kept incomes from going red; 2025 budgets assume ~$65/acre commodity title payments plus another ECAP‑style package. Policy support is holding up cash rents and land values.

• Farmland values & rents: Off the peak and largely flat. If payments fade, expect downward pressure; a gradual ~20% decline over time isn’t off the table if current conditions persist.

• Crop switching & regen: Few viable pivots in the Corn/Soy Belt. Lower prices slow regenerative adoption (transition takes time and can ding yield early). Great Plains likely adjust first.

• Livestock: Bright spot—cattle margins remain strong.

• Outlook: Barring a major shock (e.g., Brazil/US drought), expect $4 corn / $10 soybeans to stick. In the meantime, the sector is effectively “going to Washington.”

Guest: Dr. Gary Schnitkey, Professor of Agricultural & Consumer Economics, University of Illinois; works with FBFM (Farm Business Farm Management) and Precision Conservation Management (PCM) datasets.

Read about Dr. Gary Schnitkey https://asc.illinois.edu/directory/gary-schnitkey/

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

Policy is slamming the countryside. Chris Clayton (DTN/Progressive Farmer) explains how tariffs, China’s pivot to Brazilian soybeans, and a USDA shutdown are colliding with harvest to pressure basis, storage, and cash flow—and to derail rural land sales. We dig into why China (historically 25–33% of U.S. soybean demand) is buying from Brazil (COFCO/ports, crush), how that drives basis widening and elevator capacity issues, and what could actually move the needle: biofuels (biodiesel/renewable diesel, ethanol, SAF). We also lay out shutdown fallout—FSA farm ownership/operating loans stalled, CRP payments paused, NRCS (EQIP/CSP) frozen—plus the limited upside from CCC/ECAP‑style aid. If you buy/sell rural land or advise landowners, this is the unvarnished read on farmland values, buyer pools, and the next 3–6 months.

• Deals slip/die: FSA loans are stopped, shrinking the buyer pool just as post‑harvest listings hit.

• Cash crunch: Basis widening + storage pressure at harvest reduce liquidity for down payments and improvements.

• Programs on ice: CRP checks delayed; NRCS projects paused—affecting valuations and conservation‑driven marketing.

• Demand hinges on policy: RFS, biodiesel/renewable diesel, and SAF tax credits will decide soy oil crush, corn demand, and rents.

• Strategy reality: Diversified ops with cattle are weathering this better than row‑crop‑only farms.

Progressive Farmer

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/home

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

Farm margins are tight and the headlines aren’t lying—tariffs, fertilizer and machinery costs, and labor constraints are hitting producers. Jackson Takach (Farmer Mac) breaks down what’s signal vs. noise.

What we cover:

• Tariffs 101: Section 301 (unfair trade), 232 (national security), and IEEPA actions (the biggest bucket and under legal challenge). Why these hit steel/aluminum and fertilizer components—and how that flows to implement and input prices.

• Costs that pay back vs. pure drag: seed tech and risk-reduction can be worth it; fertilizer, machinery and labor are harder to offset—2026 looks tighter than 2025.

• Adaptation that actually helps: proven tech + regenerative practices to reduce input reliance.

• Bankruptcies: Chapter 12 filings are up in Arkansas and Nebraska—rising from 2023–24 lows back toward 2018–20 levels.

• Regional stress drivers: soy/rice/cotton marketing pain and flooding in AR; feedlot squeeze and weaker soy export pull in NE.

• Policy + relief: ongoing US–China trade talks; ~$15–20B of prior-year USDA aid still to deploy; Farm Bill politics and PLC “facelift” dynamics.

• Opportunities: growing global protein demand, renewable diesel/SAF, and more U.S. soybean crush capacity.

• Labor & immigration: H‑2A works for seasonal crops; year‑round gaps push automation.

• AI’s real role: better data sense‑making and lending workflows—not replacing credit decisions.

• Land values: Midwest stabilizing/slipping, Southeast firming, West = water‑dependent. Introducing the Farmland Price Index (Farmer Mac × AcreValue) built on transactions, not surveys.

Farmer Mac

https://www.farmermac.com/

The Feed - Farmland Price Index (By Farmer Mac)

https://farmermac.com/thefeed/q2-2025-farmland-price-index-update/

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com

Are you a landowner or developer weighing an auction vs. traditional listing—or a land agent who needs a faster, cleaner path to price discovery?

In this episode of The National Land Podcast, host Mac Christian sits down with Joel King—a 42-year real estate veteran (licensed across the South/Midwest)—to explain when auctions win, how to run them right, and when to walk away.

• When to choose auction: marketable asset, real buyer pool, and the ability to create competition (not every property qualifies).

• Subdivide smart: use local regs (septic/well/roads) and multi-par bidding to expand affordability without torching community goodwill.

• Auction types, plain and simple: reserve vs. absolute, sealed-bid, and why Dutch auctions are rare.

• Timeline that actually happens: ~45–60 days to auction, ~30 days to close—about 90 days end-to-end.

• Due diligence that protects you: title search early, screen the seller (SOS), require bidder access, no post-auction contingencies, and order Phase I (and II if needed) for potential EPA issues.

• Price discovery by competition: the crowd validates value; proper increments and structure prevent the “sold for a dollar” myth.

• Marketing that moves the needle: rifle (targeted) > shotgun; local/regional/national mix; weekdays for commercial; avoid big game days; Midwest selling season is Sep 15–Mar 15.

• Creating value: utilities/road tweaks, owner-finance options, and bank/REO case studies where breaking into digestible tracts unlocked 6-figure gains.

• Expectation management: don’t “buy the listing.” Need/want ≠ value (your four heirs wanting $1M each doesn’t set price).

• Landowners who want a 90-day exit or real price discovery

• Developers/land funds, banks, trustees, receivers moving inventory at scale

• Ag operators pruning marginal tracts to strengthen balance sheets

• Land agents/brokers adding a proven auction tool to close tough listings

Bottom line: If more than one qualified buyer wants it, a well-run auction can beat months on the market. Get the right team, do the diligence, set a real timeline, and let competition do its job.

Talk with Joel King

https://nationalland.com/real-estate-agent/joel-king

National Land Realty

https://www.nationalland.com