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Marty Makary, a Johns Hopkins surgeon and New York Times bestselling author, returns to The Drive to discuss his latest book, Blind Spots: When Medicine Gets It Wrong, and What It Means for Our Health. In this episode, Marty explores how a new generation of doctors is challenging long-held medical practices by asking critical new questions. He discusses the major problems of groupthink and cognitive dissonance in the medical community and delves into several of the "blind spots" raised in the book, including treatments for appendicitis, the peanut allergy epidemic, misunderstandings about HRT and breast cancer, antibiotic use, and the evolution of childbirth. He explains the urgent need for reform in medical education and the major barriers standing in the way of innovative medical research. Throughout the conversation, Marty offers insightful reflections on where medicine has succeeded and where there’s still room to challenge historic practices and embrace new approaches.

We discuss:

• The issue of groupthink and cognitive dissonance in science and medicine [2:30];
• How a non-operative treatment for appendicitis sheds light on cognitive dissonance [7:00];
• How cognitive dissonance and effort justification shape beliefs and actions [13:15];
• How misguided peanut allergy recommendations created an epidemic [17:45];
• The enduring impact of misinformation and fear-based messaging around hormone replacement therapy allegedly causing breast cancer [25:15];
• The dangers of extreme skepticism and blind faith in science, and the importance of understanding uncertainty and probability [28:00];
• The overuse of antibiotics and the rise of antibiotic resistant infections and poor gut health [33:45];
• The potential correlations between early antibiotic use and chronic diseases [40:45];
• The historical and evolving trends in childbirth and C-section rates [50:15];
• Rethinking ovarian cancer: recent data challenging decades of medical practice and leading to new preventive measures [1:05:30];
• Navigating uncertainty as a physician [1:19:30];
• The urgent need for reform in medical education [1:21:45];
• The major barriers to innovative medical research [1:27:30];
• The dogmatic culture of academic medicine: why humility and challenging established norms are key for progress [1:38:15];
• The major successes and ongoing challenges of modern medicine [1:51:00]; and
• More.

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View the Show Notes Page for This Episode

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In this episode, former World Series of Poker champion and author Annie Duke explains how poker is a pertinent model system for decision-making in the real world, a system which blends imperfect information with some unknown percentage of both luck and skill. Annie breaks down the decision-making matrix, revealing how we often focus too narrowly on just one of the four quadrants, missing out on valuable learning opportunities in the remaining 75% of situations. She delves into how our tendency to evaluate only negative outcomes leads to a culture of risk aversion. This mindset, she argues, stifles the kind of bold decision-making necessary for progress and innovation across various fields, from poker and sports to business and medicine. Annie also introduces a robust framework for learning and the levels of thought required to excel in any domain. Finally, she discusses a strategy called “backcasting”, a concept that resonated deeply with Peter in terms of how he thinks about extending healthspan.

We discuss:

• Annie’s background, favorite sports teams, and Peter’s affinity for Bill Belichick [1:30];
• Chess vs. poker: Which is a better metaphor for decision-making in life (and medicine)? [6:45];
• Thinking probabilistically: Why we aren’t wired that way, and how you can improve it for better decision-making [12:30];
• Variable reinforcement: The psychological draw of poker that keeps people playing [19:15];
• The role of luck and skill in poker (and other sports), and the difference between looking at the short run vs. long run [32:15];
• A brief explanation of Texas hold ‘em [41:00];
• The added complexity of reading the behavior of others players in poker [47:30];
• Why Annie likes to “quit fast,” and why poker is still popular despite the power of loss aversion [52:45];
• Limit vs. no-limit poker, and how the game has changed with growing popularity [55:15];
• The advent of analytics to poker, and why Annie would get crushed against today’s professionals [1:04:45];
• The decision matrix, and the “resulting” heuristic: The simplifier we use to judge the quality of decisions —The Pete Carroll Superbowl play call example [1:10:30];
• The personal and societal consequences of avoiding bad outcomes [1:21:45];
• Poker as a model system for life [1:31:30];
• How many leaders are making (and encouraging) status-quo decisions, and how Bill Belichick’s decision-making changed after winning two Super Bowls [1:35:15];
• What did we learn about decision-making from the Y2K nothingburger? And how about the D-Day invasion? [1:39:30];
• The first step to becoming a good decision maker [1:43:00];
• The difference between elite poker players and the ones who make much slower progress [1:49:45];
• Framework for learning a skill, the four levels of thought, and why we hate digging into our victories to see what happened [1:52:15];
• The capacity for self-deception, and when it is MOST important to apply four-level thinking [2:00:30];
• Soft landings: The challenge of high-level thinking where there is subtle feedback and wider skill gaps [2:11:00];
• The benefits of “backcasting” (and doing pre-mortems) [2:13:30];
• Parting advice from Annie for those feeling overwhelmed (and two book recommendations) [2:21:30]; and
• More.

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