Episodios

  • Capital Freeze Meets Market Thaw

    Capital Freeze Meets Market Thaw
    Oct 29 2025
    My podcast guest this week is Chris Garner, CEO, Avanti Residential, an owner-operator with thousands of units across seven states, who has four decades in the trenches. Garner explains how the multifamily market is bottoming – with local nuance. The past two years weren't a demand recession, he says, so much as a supply shock in growth metros. Concessions did the absorbing. Now we're approaching the peak of deliveries in places like Nashville, Denver, and Phoenix but investment committees are still anchored to five-year IRR math and negative-leverage scar tissue. His take on timing is blunt – "We're at the bottom of the multifamily cycle, if not the beginning of the recovery," but the irony is that capital is still sidelined. Investment committees remain cautious, waiting for "clear evidence" that fundamentals have turned, even though the best returns are made before that clarity arrives. As Garner put it, everyone talks about not following the herd, "but everybody's part of the herd." When deals finally reprice and capital moves, the easy money is gone. "That's when the best deals get missed because you couldn't raise capital when it was actually the right time to buy." Five questions Chris and I discuss: Where are we in the cycle? What does an efficient operating model look like now? How should value-add evolve? What's the realistic path to transacting again? What hold period wins from here? Tune in for the full conversation with Chris Garner, CEO, Avanti Residential - a masterclass in operating discipline, market selection, and underwriting in the real world. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff.Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance.Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000
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    49 m
  • A Rolling Loan Gathers No Loss

    A Rolling Loan Gathers No Loss
    Oct 23 2025
    When workout specialist Norman Radow sat across from a developer who'd just lost a half-billion-dollar condo project in LA and asked what he'd change, the developer pounded the table, "I wouldn't change a thing. I did everything right!" That's when Norman knew exactly why he was there. Norman Radow is CEO of The RADCO Companies, an Atlanta-based opportunistic real estate firm that has acquired, invested in, and operated over 30,000 multifamily units across 15 markets and completed more than 100 deals totaling $3.3 billion over the past decade. But his story begins earlier – as Lehman Brothers' off-balance-sheet workout specialist, where he earned the title "workout king" from The New York Times in 2009 after unwinding some of the most complex distressed assets in modern real estate history. In this conversation, Norman shares battle-tested wisdom from three decades of buying buildings nobody else wanted – from the savings and loan crisis through the GFC to today's market paralysis. Five questions answered: Why did Norman wait three years to get back into the distress game – and what finally triggered his return? What do ALL failed condo projects he studied have in common? (Hint: it's not what you think.) Why are banks giving free extensions to sponsors with "unclean hands" instead of bringing in fresh operators? Where is institutional capital flowing right now – and why non-institutional investors shouldn't compete there. What's the real story behind "extend and pretend" 2.0? If you're trying to make sense of today's multifamily market – the disconnect between debt and equity, why distressed deals aren't trading, and where smart money should position for the next 24-36 months – this delivers hard-earned pattern recognition from someone who's seen this movie before. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff.Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance.Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000
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    57 m
  • Real Estate's Banquet of Consequences

    Real Estate's Banquet of Consequences
    Oct 15 2025

    My guest today is David Lynn, PhD — CEO of Unity Investment Management, a private-equity real-estate firm with nearly $1 billion AUM across 74 medical outpatient buildings nationwide. A London School of Economics PhD and MIT MBA, David cuts through macro confusion with a steady, data-driven view of where capital and demographics are really pulling the market.

    Driving Thesis:
    America's aging population and the rise of personalized medicine, longevity science, and AI diagnostics are reshaping health-care real estate. Telehealth doesn't kill in-person visits — it creates more of them. And as construction costs rise and MOB supply stays tight, low-beta sectors like medical outpatient buildings are poised to outperform high-volatility multifamily and office assets.

    Why it matters:
    We're entering a post-banquet cycle — after 15 years of ultra-cheap debt and compressed cap rates. David argues that the "easy-money era" is over, but patient investors still win through cash-flow discipline and blend-and-extend lender relationships. Medical tenants are non-discretionary and financially stable; that stability will anchor returns as rates ease and capital markets thaw.

    Five questions David answers:

    1. Why MOBs held their value while multifamily stumbled.

    2. How telemedicine actually drives physical visits.

    3. What AI and genomics mean for future space demand.

    4. Where we are in the cap-rate cycle (and why this may be the bottom).

    5. How tariffs, immigration, and Fed policy feed through to CRE pricing.

    Takeaways for sponsors & LPs:
    • Favor low-volatility sectors with durable cash flow.
    • Shorter leases can beat inflation without adding risk.
    • Blend and extend — don't panic-sell distress.
    • Watch employment and energy as deflationary signals.
    • AI and aging will drive demand more than interest rates.

    If you believe steady beats speculative, this episode maps how to navigate the new cycle with a scientist-investor's lens — one rooted in data, discipline, and durable demand. David Lynn is that rare voice who bridges macro economics and boots-on-the-ground real estate with clarity and calm.

    *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get:
    • Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff.
    • Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance.
    • Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before.

    Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe
    Email: adam@gowercrowd.com
    Call: 213-761-1000
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    59 m
  • Labor, Not Inflation, Drives CRE Cycles

    Labor, Not Inflation, Drives CRE Cycles
    Sep 30 2025
    My guest today is Ryan Severino, Chief Economist & Head of Research at private equity real estate shop, BGO ($89 billion of AUM), who cuts through the macro noise with a practical roadmap for real estate sponsors and their investors. Driving Thesis: A new administration: slower immigration, volatile trade policy, and accelerating AI. These three forces are reshaping growth, hiring, space demand, and cap rates. If you're waiting for "inflation down → all clear," you'll miss the real drivers. Why it matters: The biggest hit was capital-markets math. If the Fed guides toward neutral (where the Fed's actions neither stimulate nor restrains economic growth) and the long end eases (10/30 year treasury yields come down), origination, transactions, and pricing can recover faster than fundamentals. Durable investment returns still come down to labor, not inflation headlines. Five questions Ryan answers: Today's savvy investors should be looking at what? What is the cleanest macro signal for CRE? Tariffs vs. uncertainty; what's worse? Rate cuts: boon or "sugar rush"? Where will AI hit property first? Takeaways for sponsors & LPs: Underwrite to jobs, not CPI (inflation) chatter. Get hyper-local; this is a geography-led cycle. Favor durable demand pools (workforce housing). Expect a capital-markets thaw before a fundamental boom. Treat uncertainty as baseline; build flexibility into debt and expand equity capital sources. If you're separating signal from noise, this episode re-anchors the playbook: watch payrolls, heed forward guidance, underwrite locally, own real demand. According to ChatGPT's analysis of Ryan's historical predictions, he has 'called the cycle's shape better than most; no overreaction to inflation, no premature recession warnings, and consistent recognition of labor market strength and capital flow dynamics. That's a rare track record, especially in a market where even top-tier macro shops have missed big turns.' Ryan's the real deal – hardly any wonder he's Chief Economist at an $89 billion AUM shop. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff.Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance.Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000
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    56 m
  • Trust and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

    Trust and the Bureau of Labor Statistics
    Sep 25 2025
    Erica Groshen knows what’s behind the numbers. She served as the 14th Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a Vice President at the New York Fed. The BLS is rarely in the headlines but political assaults on its independence have suddenly made its work front-page news. At stake: whether the data that guide trillions in investment and policy decisions can still be trusted. In our conversation, Erica and I explored five questions that matter not just for CRE professionals, but for anyone trying to make sense of today’s economy: What happens to markets when political leaders undermine trust in official statistics? How would a politicized Fed and BLS reshape the cost of capital and risk across the economy? How is the nation’s labor data actually gathered? Why does the BLS’s data matter so much for the business and CRE cycle? How does the Fed use labor data to set interest rates? This isn’t an abstract debate. For commercial real estate, cap rates, borrowing costs, and deal structures all trace back to the business cycle - and that cycle is measured first and foremost by BLS data. If you want to look beyond today’s headlines and hear why institutional trust translates directly into your cost of capital — this is the episode to listen to. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff.Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance.Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000
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    56 m
  • Why Affordable Multifamily Outshines Luxury

    Why Affordable Multifamily Outshines Luxury
    Sep 22 2025

    Greg MacKinnon is Director of Research at the Pension Real Estate Association (PREA), where he updates the world's largest institutional investors on portfolio construction, risk, and strategy. His is a vantage point most sponsors never get to hear directly.

    In this conversation, Greg and I revisited our conversation from two weeks ago to drill deeper into the housing market. His thesis is simple but surprising: the capital flows and risk assessments at the very top of the pyramid are being reshaped by renter bifurcation and the economics of affordability.

    Here are five questions Greg answered that every serious CRE professional should consider:

    1. Why does the 10-year Treasury matter more than the Fed's 25 bps rate cut last week?
    2. How fragile is today's economy, and what does that mean for institutional portfolio construction?
    3. How can understanding the "barbell" of renter demand help you make better investment decisions?
    4. Why has naturally affordable multifamily historically outperformed luxury on a risk-adjusted basis?
    5. Where are institutions actually deploying capital today and why?

    Greg's insights are drawn from the institutional world, where the stakes are measured in billions and the lens is long-term risk management.

    For sponsors and operators, listening in offers a rare chance to see how these investors are evaluating markets - and to align your own strategies accordingly.

    *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get:
    • Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff.
    • Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance.
    • Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before.

    Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe
    Email: adam@gowercrowd.com
    Call: 213-761-1000
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    46 m
  • Distress Is Coming - Slowly, Then All At Once

    Distress Is Coming - Slowly, Then All At Once
    Sep 15 2025
    Reid Bennett knows multifamily. As National Council Chair of Multifamily at SVN and a 24-year broker across market-rate, workforce, and affordable housing, he's completed hundreds of transactions and advised lenders on more than 450 broker opinions of value (BOV) in just the past 18 months. In my recent conversation with him, Reid cuts through the noise to explain what's really happening in multifamily and why sponsors and investors need to pay attention. Here are five big questions he answers: Are the 450+ BOVs a sign that distress is about to hit multifamily, or just lenders marking time? Why are occupancies still in the mid-90s when everything else in the economy feels shaky? What's crushing NOI faster - insurance, property taxes, or payroll? How should investors think about workforce housing as a long-term hedge against oversupply at the top end? Why do Class A buildings show concessions while B and C rents remain sticky, and how does new supply really solve affordability? This isn't 2009, but it isn't 2021 either. Reid explains why today's market feels like a slow-motion reset and what signals to watch if you want to stay ahead. Tune in to hear Reid's unvarnished take. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff.Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance.Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000
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    46 m
  • Community Banks, Conservative Debt, Real Returns

    Community Banks, Conservative Debt, Real Returns
    Sep 14 2025

    A Banker’s Memory Is a Sponsor’s Edge

    Brad Andrus isn’t just another operator in today’s market. He’s the co-founder of Northbridge Commercial Real Estate and a former community-bank lender who cut his teeth during the 2008 crisis. That experience shaped the conservative, cash-flow-first discipline he brings to self-storage, office, and industrial deals across DFW today.

    In this episode, Brad lays out why sponsors who master operating discipline—not market timing—win when capital is cautious and debt is expensive.

    Here are 5 questions he answers that every sponsor and investor should be paying attention to right now:

    1. How do you structure debt so it survives a cycle—even if growth underwhelms?

    2. Why are community banks still the hidden edge for sponsors, even in today’s tighter credit regime?

    3. What’s the new investor mindset after 2021–2023’s write-downs and capital calls?

    4. How do you play offense in self-storage when household mobility (and move-ins) slows down?

    5. What really earns sponsors repeat checks from equity investors in 2024–2025?

    Brad’s through-line is refreshingly clear: lower leverage, cash-flow bias, relationship banking, and transparent communication.

    For anyone raising capital or allocating into deals right now, his insights are a blueprint for surviving—and compounding—across market cycles.

    *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get:
    • Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff.
    • Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance.
    • Insights from real estate professionals who’ve been through it all before.

    Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe
    Email: adam@gowercrowd.com
    Call: 213-761-1000
    Más Menos
    48 m