For years, one of the driving narratives in Canadian real estate was deceptively simple: population growth equals home-price growth. Between 2021-2023, that tailwind was unmistakable — massive immigration, booming temporary residents, and a swelling demand for housing fueled price rises across the country. But that story is now changing. The latest federal budget from Ottawa projects zero population growth for the first time in modern history — a signal that the era of “Demographic Alpha” may be over.

In British Columbia, the October numbers underscore the shifting landscape. Home sales across the province dropped by 10% year-over-year, with only 6,370 units sold, yet the average price ticked up to $987,600 (a modest 0.8 % increase). At first glance, that may seem counter-intuitive—especially given the drop in the Greater Vancouver region, where prices actually fell 3.4%. What it reveals is a province where local dynamics are diverging: outside the Lower Mainland some markets are still inching up.

Nationally, every province except Ontario is showing year-over-year price increases. Ontario is down about 2.9%, even though pockets within have seen drops of 30 % or more. Two regions — Newfoundland and the Northwest Territories — are up more than 10%. So while the broader narrative remains “prices rising,” it’s the hyper-local story that matters.

Let’s go back to population. For decades, Canadian real estate bulls pointed to one immutable fact: we kept growing. New people meant new renters, new buyers, new demand — the structural scarcity argument. But Ottawa’s policy shift is turning the page. Between 2020 and 2024, population growth was arguably the strongest single driver of housing returns: it boosted rentals, shortened vacancy, supported pre-construction profits. Now the federal government’s reduced intake of permanent and temporary residents is removing that force. Growth dropping from 3% to near zero rewrites the math of valuations.

The consequences are broader than real estate: GDP growth in recent years has largely been powered by population expansion. With shrinking labour-force growth and rising youth and newcomer unemployment already flagged by the Bank of Canada, housing demand will be impacted. In effect, immigration policy is now acting as a rate hike — cooling demand without touching interest rates. For investors and developers, the easy “demographic premium” is gone.

Condo starts continue to collapse. New sales of condo units have tanked, and about 18 months later condo starts follow that trajectory. We’re seeing new-home construction at 15-year lows, fewer jobs in building trades, fewer units coming to market. And then there’s the demographic domino effect.

So what does this all mean for you—or for anyone who’s betting on real estate? The thesis of perpetual population-driven housing demand is under threat. Scarcity is no longer guaranteed. The fundamentals are shifting: slower growth means slower demand, longer lease-ups, muted appreciation. For developers, investors and agents alike: adaptation is key. The era of demographic tailwinds is fading. The question now is: who will stay ahead in the new chapter?

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Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Vancouver home prices just dropped for the seventh straight month, and the November stats paint a clear picture: momentum is fading, listings remain high, and the winter slowdown is now colliding with a wave of economic and policy turbulence. In this week’s episode, we break down everything from the federal budget fallout to land title uncertainty in B.C., and what all of it means for prices heading into 2026.

Let’s start with Ottawa. The latest federal budget was pitched as a housing plan, but for many Canadians dreaming of ownership, it landed more like a broken promise. Funding for the Build Canada Homes program was cut nearly in half, the MURB tax incentive was quietly shelved, and the much-hyped “development charge relief” was watered down.

Instead, the lion’s share of new spending targets rentals and supportive housing — not ownership. Worse, the government has committed to running the largest deficit in Canadian history over the next five years. With Ottawa already paying $55 billion annually just in interest, that figure could easily double if rates stay higher for longer. For context, in the 1990s, when interest payments hit 33% of total revenue, the government faced a full-blown fiscal crisis. Today we’re at 10%, but trending up — and if that number hits 20% or more, markets, rating agencies, and mortgage rates will all start reacting. The key takeaway: Canada isn’t in crisis yet, but it’s walking a thinner line than most realize.

Meanwhile, jobs data surprised to the upside, with 67,000 positions added in October — nearly all of them part-time. Private sector hiring picked up for the first time in months, but construction jobs fell again, particularly in B.C., where the slowdown in new builds is clearly visible. In Metro Vancouver, employment dipped 0.3%, and the unemployment rate edged up to 6.3%. Economists now expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates steady into the new year. It’s a signal of cautious stability — the economy isn’t collapsing, but it’s far from thriving.

And then there’s the land claim shock. A recent B.C. Supreme Court ruling recognized Aboriginal title for the Cowichan Tribes over a section of southeast Richmond — an area including roughly 150 private parcels — and struck down parts of the law that made land titles “indefeasible.” The decision, now on appeal, effectively allows two forms of ownership to co-exist on the same land — something that no lender or insurer can practically underwrite.

And finally, the November housing stats. Sales rose 21% month-over-month to 2,257 — the second-strongest month of 2025 — but still sit 14% below last year and 14.5% under the 10-year average. Inventory, at 15,797 active listings, is up 13% year-over-year and sits 36% above the decade norm. The sales-to-active ratio now rests at 14%. Detached homes sit at 11%, townhomes at 19%, and condos at 16%. The HPI benchmark price dropped again, down 0.8% month-over-month and 5.1% from the March peak to $1,132,500 — the lowest level since March 2023.

By the end of this episode, you’ll understand where prices are heading next, how the budget’s deficit math could affect mortgage rates, and why land titles — not just listings — are suddenly the biggest wildcard in B.C. real estate.

Foreclosures Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=feD5v2ByQQc&t=5s

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

This week on The Vancouver Life Real Estate Podcast — the Bank of Canada cuts rates again. But are we at the bottom of this cycle, or is another surprise still coming? As Ottawa gears up to unveil its massive 2026 federal budget, we break down how an $80 billion deficit could completely reshape Canada’s interest rate path and keep borrowing costs higher for longer. What does that mean for homebuyers, investors, and renters? We’ll unpack it all — from a slowing economy to a shifting housing pipeline that’s seeing record rental construction, collapsing building permits, and an alarming wave of cancelled condo projects.

The Bank’s latest 25-basis-point cut brings the overnight rate to 2.25%, right at the bottom of its neutral range. While that offers a small reprieve for variable-rate holders, economists warn we’re nearing the end of this easing cycle. With GDP growth projected at just over 1% for the next two years, and the Bank declaring that U.S. trade tariffs are “fundamentally reshaping Canada’s economy,” we’re entering an adjustment phase — not a boom. At the same time, the government’s expected fiscal stimulus could actually push rates higher over time, as bond markets demand more to finance record-level deficits.

Meanwhile, Canada’s housing pipeline is starting to fracture. New single-family and condo starts are plunging while rental construction surges to all-time highs. Over 110,000 rental units are now underway — half of all new housing starts in the country — even as student demand collapses and rent incentives pile up. In contrast, homeowner-driven construction is at its lowest since 2009, setting the stage for tighter resale supply in the years ahead. The collapse in new condo sales, record cancellations, and vanishing launches in the GTA only reinforce what’s coming — a short-term freeze that could sow the seeds for the next supply crunch.

Mortgage renewals continue to bite, with payments rising roughly $105 per $100,000 borrowed — the steepest increase since the early ’90s. Most borrowers are opting for three- to four-year fixed terms, betting that rates will be lower by mid-decade but perhaps discounting the inflationary pressures that could come with a massive budget. But with consumer confidence now at levels last seen during the financial crisis, Canadians are hesitant to make big moves — even as mortgage affordability improves to its best point since 2021.

And while October’s housing data shows signs of life — with sales volumes and prices at their highest levels of 2025 — the real question is whether this marks a turning point or just a temporary blip. Between fiscal stimulus, trade uncertainty, and a fragile job market, Canada’s housing story is once again at a crossroads. By the end of this week's episode, you’ll know exactly where this market is heading next — and how to position yourself before the next cycle begins.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com