The Canadian real estate market is currently trapped in a fascinating, if not harrowing, contradiction. On one hand, we are witnessing a 35-year high in completed but unsold inventory, with 19,000 units sitting vacant as of last month—a staggering 52% above the long-term average. On the other, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is sounding the alarm on a 27% price surge by 2032. To the casual observer, this looks like a market in collapse; to the seasoned analyst, it looks like a massive supply-side vacuum in the making. The reality is that developers have effectively "penciled down," with virtually zero new projects slated for completion in 2029 or 2030. We are currently gorging on a surplus of "tiny condos" that the modern Canadian family cannot—or will not—occupy, while the pipeline for functional, family-sized housing has run dry.

This paralysis is being compounded by a Bank of Canada (BoC) that has opted for a "wait and see" approach, holding rates at 2.25% for the second consecutive meeting. The Governor’s pivot toward "uncertainty" suggests that growth concerns are finally outweighing inflation fears. However, this lack of forward guidance is a double-edged sword. When a central bank claims the climate is "too uncertain," it is a tacit admission that they no longer trust their own data models. This caution is reflected in the mortgage market: while 43% of new borrowers are still gambling on variable rates, the smart money is beginning to eye five-year fixed products. With projections suggesting the overnight rate could climb another 100 basis points to 3.25% by 2031, the era of "cheap money" is not coming back, making "locking in" a prudent defensive maneuver for the household balance sheet.

The human cost of this economic friction is becoming impossible to ignore. In 2025, Canada saw a record 120,016 people emigrate—the fourth consecutive year of growth in departures. Most alarming is that 54% of those leaving are aged 25 to 49. This is not just a "brain drain"; it is an "equity drain." When your core tax base and household-forming demographic flee for more affordable jurisdictions, it signals a systemic failure in the Canadian dream. This exodus is mirrored by a collapse in homeownership rates across every age group under 75. For the first time in modern history, young Canadians are being forced into long-term tenancy, not by choice, but by a market that has prioritized 500-square-foot investment vehicles over livable family homes.

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, the labor market may be the catalyst for the next shift. With 21% of businesses planning staff cuts—the highest level since 2016—and EI recipients up 16% year-over-year, the pressure on the BoC to cut rates may become irresistible. Yet, retail sales paradoxically hit all-time highs last month, driven by spending on "self-care" items like clothing and jewelry rather than building materials. This suggests a consumer base that has given up on the "big" dreams of renovation and ownership, choosing instead to spend their dwindling disposable income on immediate gratification. We are in a volatile transition period where sentiment is negative, but the underlying data suggests that once today’s inventory is absorbed, we will wake up to a market with no new supply to meet the next cycle of demand.

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Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

The Canadian real estate landscape in early 2026 has officially entered a period of historic structural decoupling. As we analyze the data from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to Vancouver, the "demise of the pre-sale condo" is no longer a hyperbolic headline—it is a statistical reality. In the GTA, new condo sales have plummeted a staggering 95% from their 2021 peak, reaching a quarterly volume not seen since the third quarter of 1990. This 35-year low has triggered a wave of "capital flight" from traditional development; a record 28 active projects were cancelled in 2025 alone, representing over 7,200 units that will never hit the skyline.

This inventory vacuum creates a "supply cliff" that market participants must brace for. While current completions remain high due to the lag in construction cycles—nearly matching the 2024 record—starts have cratered by 88% over the last three years. By 2029, the industry is projecting a "zero-delivery" year for new condos. However, as the pre-sale model falters, a new titan is emerging: purpose-built rentals. Driven by federal tax incentives and a desperate need for stable housing stock, rental starts hit a multi-decade high in 2025. Yet, there is a paradox in the West; Vancouver is simultaneously grappling with a 30-year high vacancy rate of 3.7%, proving that even in a supply-starved nation, price and demand have a ceiling.

The macro-economic backdrop further complicates the recovery. Canada’s GDP shrank by 0.3% in late 2025, the sharpest non-pandemic decline in nearly a decade. While headline inflation has seen a "ghost" uptick to 2.4%—largely due to year-over-year tax distortions—core inflation is actually cooling. This puts the Bank of Canada in a delicate holding pattern. As they head into the January 28th meeting, the consensus is a rate hold at 2.25%. For investors, the era of "easy gains" through pre-sale appreciation is over; the new game is "gentle density."

North Vancouver’s recent adoption of Zoning Amendment Bylaw 9137 is the "first-mover" opportunity of 2026. By legalizing multiplexes across nearly 4,900 lots, the city has fired the starting gun for small-scale developers to convert single-family lots into three-to-six unit "AAA" assets.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

The real estate landscape heading into 2026 may be the most uncertain we’ve seen in decades. Rising unemployment, declining population growth, global trade tensions, expanding land claims, the risk of renewed rate hikes, falling prices, and record levels of completed but unsold inventory have created a fog over Canadian housing—especially in British Columbia.

This episode sets out to unpack the economic forces now shaping the year ahead and offer clear-eyed predictions for what lies ahead in 2026. It’s a rare moment where even seasoned market observers admit that forecasting feels unusually difficult. That’s precisely why this conversation matters—and why we invite viewers to leave their own predictions, so we can revisit them in a year and see who truly had a crystal ball.

National sales slipped 2.7% month-over-month, with 2025 closing down 1.9% overall, while Greater Vancouver posted its weakest sales volume year in 25 years. Active inventory fell for a fourth consecutive month, now sitting 10% below the long-term average and roughly half of what it was in 2015. Prices edged down again, with Canada’s HPI falling 4% in 2025 and BC’s average home price dropping below $1 million for the first time in years. Provincial dollar volume fell more than 8%, unit sales declined, and affordability remains strained.

Overlay this with rising unemployment—now at 6.8%, experiencing the second-largest monthly spike since 2020—and a labor market increasingly concentrated in essential services while private-sector industries contract. Youth unemployment has surged past 13%, underscoring a generation facing diminished economic momentum. Add to that the growing presence of land claims across BC, including new frameworks for “Land Back” initiatives, and the result is a market shadowed by questions around long-term confidence and property rights.

At the same time, a global shift in capital allocation is underway. In the United States, equities have overtaken real estate as the dominant driver of household wealth for only the second time since the 1980s. Canada remains more heavily concentrated in property—real estate still represents nearly 42% of household assets—but that imbalance raises important questions about diversification, productivity, and long-term resilience.

Against this backdrop, the episode moves into bold 2026 forecasts: Will Canada technically enter a recession? Where will population growth land? How high will unemployment rise before stabilizing? Will inflation remain contained?

Where will the Bank of Canada take rates—and what will that mean for fixed and variable mortgages? How far will mortgage arrears climb? What new government policies could reshape the housing landscape? And finally, what does all this mean for sales volumes, inventory, absorption rates, rental prices, luxury transactions, and home values across detached homes, townhomes, and condos?

This is a year defined by crosscurrents—economic contraction colliding with structural housing shortages, policy ambition clashing with affordability realities. 2026 may not deliver clarity, but it will deliver consequence. And for those watching closely, it may also deliver opportunity—if you understand the cycle you’re standing in.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com