Canada is building homes at a record pace, but a closer look reveals a growing disconnect between what’s being constructed and what Canadians actually need, want, or can afford. While total units under construction sit at all-time highs, homeowner-oriented housing tells a very different story. Single-family home starts have fallen to levels not seen since 2009, even dipping below those of 25 years ago when adjusted for population growth. Over just three months, single-family starts are down more than 9%, condo starts are down over 11%, and yet purpose-built rental construction is up more than 30%. Building permits, the clearest leading indicator show Ontario and British Columbia at a 40-year low for single-family approvals, all but guaranteeing a future shortage of that housing type. The trajectory is clear: fewer Canadians will live in single-family homes, not by choice, but by supply design.

That supply shift is already reshaping the rental market. Canada now has roughly 180,000 purpose-built rental units in the pipeline, including an extraordinary 16% of British Columbia’s entire rental stock currently under construction. Contrast that with 2012, when fewer than 2,000 rentals were being built nationwide. Today, that number exceeds 35,000 annually. Vacancy rates, which hit a historic low near 1.5% in 2024, have already climbed to roughly 2.5%, with growing evidence they could push into the 4% range over the coming years. Rents are responding quickly. In Metro Vancouver, average one-bedroom rents fell in November to roughly $2,164 — down 9% year-over-year — with similar declines now seen across 17 of Canada’s largest metro areas. For investors, particularly institutions that piled aggressively into rental housing, this is an inflection point worth watching closely.

Against this backdrop, Ottawa has rolled out its latest housing intervention: Build Canada Homes, a new federal agency aimed almost entirely at affordable rental and social housing. The program brings long-awaited clarity around income-based definitions of affordability and outlines a three-pillar strategy focused on financing, building, and industrializing housing production. But it also exposes critical blind spots. The program does not target market-rate ownership or middle-class housing. Its standardized design catalogue emphasizes low-rise, low-density buildings, often with small unit sizes, at a time when cities are short family-sized homes and need density. Innovation is championed rhetorically, yet without a clear plan to reconcile higher upfront costs with housing volume or to modernize zoning and building codes that frequently block new construction methods before they scale.

Absorbing this supply would normally rely on strong population growth. That engine is stalling. Telecom data tracking mobile phone additions shows population growth slowing sharply, with 2025 on track for one of the weakest increases in over 70 years — and federal policy aimed at slowing it further.

Taken together, the picture is sobering. Canada is producing housing but increasingly rentals instead of ownership, volume instead of suitability, optics instead of outcomes. Until supply aligns with real demand, regulations match ambition, and confidence is restored, the housing crisis is unlikely to ease. The question isn’t just what Canada is building it’s who it’s being built for, and whether that answer still works.

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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Canada’s housing market is being pulled in more directions than ever. Court cases, collapsing construction, political battles, and rising costs are all converging at once — and the result is a level of uncertainty we haven’t seen in years. This week, we’re breaking down what’s making headlines, what’s just noise, and what could materially reshape housing across B.C.

We start in Port Coquitlam, where a decade-long Kwikwetlem land claim has resurfaced, putting major institutional sites from the Riverview lands to Gates Park, back into the legal spotlight. The case is currently paused while provincial negotiations take place, but after the recent Richmond ruling and new cases in Kamloops and Sun Peaks, municipalities are bracing for more challenges. With 95% of B.C. land unceded, these decisions could set the tone for years of litigation.

Cross-border tensions are rising too. Several Alaska tribal nations have now petitioned the B.C. Supreme Court, arguing they should have a legal voice in Canadian resource projects including the Red Chris Mine, a federally fast-tracked, nation-building development. Their claim builds on the 2021 Desautel ruling, which recognized U.S.-based tribes as Aboriginal peoples of Canada. If the courts agree again, the implications for Canadian sovereignty, consultation rights, and investor confidence could be enormous.

Meanwhile, housing supply is weakening. Starts are falling across B.C., with multi-family projects in larger centres down sharply. Calgary is considering reversing its citywide rezoning, Burnaby has scaled back Bill 44, and pre-sale markets continue to collapse — all of which point to even lower starts ahead. But there is one major outlier: the Heather Lands proposal has returned with towers as tall as 46 storeys, driven by a massive attainable-housing initiative involving the Province and the MST Partnership. If approved, 85% of the 4,200 homes on site would be below-market — a scale almost unprecedented in Vancouver.

Demographics are shifting too. The median homebuyer age is rising rapidly, especially in the U.S., where it has surged to 59. Wealthier, older buyers are dominating the market, while first-time buyers shrink to record lows. Canada hasn’t seen the same extreme jump yet, but affordability constraints suggest we’re heading in that direction.

On the financial side, the fallout from “Condo Day” continues as the Belvedere project in Surrey enters creditor protection, revealing just how fragile pre-sale economics have become.

Nationally, CREA reports modest price increases and slightly higher sales, but Ontario’s downturn continues to drag the national average lower.

And finally, inflation cooled to 2.2%, but not for the reasons that matter most to homebuyers. Gas prices did the heavy lifting, while shelter costs — rent, insurance, and mortgage interest — continue pushing inflation higher. Core measures remain sticky, meaning cheaper mortgages aren’t coming anytime soon.

Policies, courts, construction, demographics, and financing are all colliding at once. Understanding which forces are temporary and which are structural has never been more important.

This week, we break it all down — and what it means for your next move in B.C.’s housing market.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

For years, one of the driving narratives in Canadian real estate was deceptively simple: population growth equals home-price growth. Between 2021-2023, that tailwind was unmistakable — massive immigration, booming temporary residents, and a swelling demand for housing fueled price rises across the country. But that story is now changing. The latest federal budget from Ottawa projects zero population growth for the first time in modern history — a signal that the era of “Demographic Alpha” may be over.

In British Columbia, the October numbers underscore the shifting landscape. Home sales across the province dropped by 10% year-over-year, with only 6,370 units sold, yet the average price ticked up to $987,600 (a modest 0.8 % increase). At first glance, that may seem counter-intuitive—especially given the drop in the Greater Vancouver region, where prices actually fell 3.4%. What it reveals is a province where local dynamics are diverging: outside the Lower Mainland some markets are still inching up.

Nationally, every province except Ontario is showing year-over-year price increases. Ontario is down about 2.9%, even though pockets within have seen drops of 30 % or more. Two regions — Newfoundland and the Northwest Territories — are up more than 10%. So while the broader narrative remains “prices rising,” it’s the hyper-local story that matters.

Let’s go back to population. For decades, Canadian real estate bulls pointed to one immutable fact: we kept growing. New people meant new renters, new buyers, new demand — the structural scarcity argument. But Ottawa’s policy shift is turning the page. Between 2020 and 2024, population growth was arguably the strongest single driver of housing returns: it boosted rentals, shortened vacancy, supported pre-construction profits. Now the federal government’s reduced intake of permanent and temporary residents is removing that force. Growth dropping from 3% to near zero rewrites the math of valuations.

The consequences are broader than real estate: GDP growth in recent years has largely been powered by population expansion. With shrinking labour-force growth and rising youth and newcomer unemployment already flagged by the Bank of Canada, housing demand will be impacted. In effect, immigration policy is now acting as a rate hike — cooling demand without touching interest rates. For investors and developers, the easy “demographic premium” is gone.

Condo starts continue to collapse. New sales of condo units have tanked, and about 18 months later condo starts follow that trajectory. We’re seeing new-home construction at 15-year lows, fewer jobs in building trades, fewer units coming to market. And then there’s the demographic domino effect.

So what does this all mean for you—or for anyone who’s betting on real estate? The thesis of perpetual population-driven housing demand is under threat. Scarcity is no longer guaranteed. The fundamentals are shifting: slower growth means slower demand, longer lease-ups, muted appreciation. For developers, investors and agents alike: adaptation is key. The era of demographic tailwinds is fading. The question now is: who will stay ahead in the new chapter?

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com