Canada’s housing market is shifting faster than the headlines suggest—and not in one direction. On paper, “affordability” is improving as prices slip and the overnight rate eases to 2.5%, taking ownership costs back toward late-2021 levels. But the market isn’t responding like 2021 because confidence has fractured. Job openings fell 4.2% month-over-month, construction vacancies plunged 14.3% in a single month, and there are now more Canadians on EI (~550k) than there are job postings (~460k). That backdrop makes a million-dollar decision a hard sell. Meanwhile, the presale engine that funds future supply is sputtering: the GTA’s August logged just 300 new-home sales—down 42% year-over-year and 81% below the 10-year norm—with Vancouver operating at roughly a third of typical activity. Builders are finishing what’s already in the ground, but not launching new projects, setting up a delayed-impact shortage later this decade even as today’s prices grind lower.

Policy is tightening, too. OSFI’s 2026 capital rules will stop investors from “re-using” the same rental income to qualify for multiple mortgages and will push more loans into income-producing buckets that carry higher capital charges. Combined-loan products will be treated as defaulted across the bundle if one piece fails. Translation: leverage gets harder for small investors just as institutions—REITs, pensions, private equity—face fewer practical constraints and can buy at scale. The likely result is a further professionalization of the rental market and a harder path to wealth-building via real estate for the middle class. At the same time, the long-standing premium of new-build over resale is wobbling. In the U.S., resale has flipped to price above new for the first time in decades—a signal of builder discounting, smaller product mixes, and the powerful “rate-lock” effect that traps owners in ultra-low mortgages and starves resale supply. Canada is different (shorter mortgage terms), but presale discounts and “more reasonable” launch pricing are appearing here, too.

Macro currents aren’t providing much lift. Housing starts fell 16.3% month-over-month to a 246k pace, with rentals (≈102k) almost matching all single-family plus condo starts—unsustainable without firmer demand and cheaper capital. BC’s single-family permits have collapsed to ~45-year lows, underscoring just how thin end-user appetite is at current price points. Households remain stretched: the debt-service ratio ticked up to 14.4%, near 15-year highs for interest costs, and yet arrears improved modestly and net worth rose with equity markets—an uneasy equilibrium that doesn’t restore confidence. On the ground, October stats still read “slow grind”: sales in Greater Vancouver hovered ~20% below the 10-year average, months of supply kept the market balanced, days-on-market rose for a sixth straight month, and the HPI slipped again—down ~4% from March’s high and back to early-2023 levels. Add it up and you get a market in reset: prices easing, presales anaemic, credit tighter for small landlords, and starts rolling over. In this episode, we unpack what that means for buyers eyeing value, sellers recalibrating expectations, and policymakers deciding whether to intervene—or let the reset run its course.

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Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Canada’s housing market is being battered from every angle, and the cracks are widening into a full-blown crisis. Population growth, the single biggest driver of housing demand, has nearly stalled. Statistics Canada reported Q2 growth of just 47,000 people — a 0.1% increase and the second-slowest pace since 1946, excluding the pandemic. For a country that has leaned heavily on immigration to fuel housing, GDP, and tax revenues, this 80-year low is seismic. Developers who banked on endless inflows are now sitting on record inventories, while Vancouver and Toronto — the markets most dependent on population surges — are already showing demand erosion and softening rents.

At the same time, supply battles are intensifying. Century Group’s Tsawwassen redevelopment was slashed from 1,433 homes to just 600 after NIMBY pushback, despite meeting planning requirements. In Burnaby, petitions against densification threaten to stall family housing. This kind of resistance highlights how hard it will be for cities to meet ambitious housing targets.

Meanwhile, renters are gaining some leverage. Vancouver rents are falling, down 9.3% year-over-year to $2,825, and rental starts have surged to record highs. Landlords are offering concessions, a sharp reversal from the bidding wars of recent years.

Toronto, however, is flashing red. Power-of-sale listings — Ontario’s faster foreclosure alternative — have exploded 14-fold since 2021, now averaging 140 a month and hitting a record 1,200 active listings. Distressed sales are growing while resale volumes remain stuck near generational lows.

National home prices reveal a market split in two. The benchmark fell 20% from the 2022 peak to $686,800, but this correction is almost entirely in Ontario and B.C. Ontario prices are down 26%, B.C. 12% — yet eight of ten provinces hit new record highs this year, with Newfoundland leading.

Zooming in, Vancouver’s inventory has soared to 18,100 homes — the highest in 12 years — while the benchmark price fell for the fifth straight month. Toronto’s market is drowning in inventory, with prices down $312,000 from peak. Together, these metros are dragging national averages while the rest of Canada continues to climb.

This isn’t just a cooling cycle — it’s a structural reckoning. Population growth is slowing, supply is stalling under community resistance, rents are correcting, and distressed sales are rising. The fundamentals that fuelled Canada’s boom — immigration, cheap credit, and confidence — are eroding. The fight for affordability and stability is only just beginning.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Yesterday, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by a quarter point. On paper it may sound small, but in reality it was a major signal. Central banks rarely move in tandem unless the global economy is flashing warning signs. In this case, the cuts were not acts of strength, but indications of a weakening economy. The Fed acted on the back of softening labour and inflation data. The Bank of Canada responded to one of the worst employment reports the country has seen since the financial crisis, alongside a GDP contraction and a decade-long stagnation in productivity.

Canada has shed 106,000 jobs in just two months, the steepest decline since 2009 outside of the pandemic years. The unemployment rate sits at 7.1%, though the reality is worse given the growing number of discouraged workers who are no longer counted in the labour force. GDP shrank 1.6% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, far worse than expected (0.6%), and per capita GDP has not grown since 2016. Productivity has declined in 15 of the past 18 quarters, leaving Canada stuck while the United States continues to pull ahead. Against that backdrop, rate cuts were inevitable. They are not preemptive adjustments - rather it feels like recession management.

What holds the system together in moments like these is confidence. Confidence in the housing market, confidence in the stock market, confidence in government. Yet for many Canadians, that confidence has already been shaken. Housing prices have surged far faster than wages, eroding real purchasing power year after year. Families increasingly feel that elected officials have failed them, and the erosion of trust has become a slow leak. Rate cuts might offer a momentary reprieve for borrowers, but they cannot restore confidence on their own.

Vancouver, by contrast, is experiencing a rental paradox. Sales ticked up slightly in August, but remain nearly 60% below peak levels. The sales-to-new listings ratio has fallen below 40%, a threshold that historically precedes price declines. Inventory continues to rise, months of supply sit at their highest since 2012, and the price index slipped again last month. At the same time, rental construction is surging. Metro Vancouver will see a 17% increase in rental supply over the next two years, while Kelowna is on track for a staggering 33% increase. With population growth slowing, this supply wave will inevitably push vacancies higher, something Vancouver has not experienced in years. Renters will see relief in the short term, but single-family permits are at record lows, which points to severe shortages by the late 2020s and a return to undersupply by the 2030s for both asset classes.

The central bank cuts will ease borrowing costs slightly, and some buyers will return to the market. But rate cuts cannot create demand where none exists, nor can they resolve structural oversupply. In fact, by keeping weak projects alive longer, they may extend the correction rather than shorten it. What truly matters is confidence.

Rate cuts feel like gifts, but they are really warning signals. They tell us that fragility is here, not ahead. The question is whether we treat this fragility as a chance to reset and rebuild trust, or whether we allow confidence to erode further. Because when confidence is restored—in our homes, in our markets, and in our leaders—the system doesn’t just hold. It thrives.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com