In this week’s Vancouver real estate update, we dive into the latest data and indicators painting a complex picture of the market. We start with the Housing Affordability Index, a measure of median household income against mortgage payments, taxes, and utilities. According to this index, Canadian homes have never actually been considered affordable—not once in the last 40 years. The most affordable period came in the late 1990s, when the metric dipped to 34%, just shy of the “ideal” target of 33%. Today, affordability sits at 55%. While that’s a meaningful improvement from the record high of 63.5% in Q4 2023, it still remains well above the threshold of sustainable home ownership.

Interestingly, Canadian affordability is now at the same level it was in 1990—just before a decade-long improvement in affordability followed. Whether or not that trend repeats remains to be seen. RBC’s latest forecast doesn’t think so. They project affordability will bottom later this year around 52%, then begin worsening again in 2026.

On the inflation front, May CPI came in at 1.7%, unchanged from April. This marks the 18th consecutive month within the Bank of Canada’s 1–3% target range. Core inflation registered at 2.9%, the upper end of the band but still acceptable. Mortgage interest costs remain a key driver, adding 0.4% to the CPI. It’s important to note that most other countries exclude mortgage interest from their inflation basket. Without it, Canada’s inflation would have been closer to 1.3%. Rented accommodations contributed 0.3%, but StatsCan’s data appears to lag. While they report rents up 4.3% annually, Rentals.ca shows a 3.3% decline in the last year.

Turning to interest rate expectations: markets are only pricing in a 30% chance of a rate cut at the July 30th Bank of Canada meeting. And as of now, there is just one more rate cut expected for the remainder of 2025. That outlook has cooled considerably, given earlier projections of more aggressive easing.

Now to the July 2025 housing stats. Total home sales in Greater Vancouver hit 2,186 units in June, down 9.5% from last year and a staggering 26% below the 10-year average. It was the second slowest June on record—worse than the Global Financial Crisis and COVID shutdowns. This follows what was already the slowest May on record. The spring market never materialized, and current indicators suggest a muted summer and fall ahead.

New listings reached 6,301 in June, up 10% year-over-year but down 5% from May. Inventory sits at 16,852 active listings, down 1% month-over-month but still 19% higher than a year ago and 44% above the 10-year average. At the time of reporting, inventory has climbed to over 18,200 active listings. The Sales-to-Active-Listings ratio remains at 13%—signaling a balanced market—for the 13th straight month. Detached homes are at 10%, townhomes at 17%, and condos at 14%.

Prices continue to slide. The Home Price Index (HPI) dropped for the third straight month in 2025, down 0.3% month-over-month to $1,173,100. That puts prices 2.8% lower than one year ago. The median price stayed flat at $985,000, but remains up $70,000 year-to-date. The average price rose $9,000 to $1,275,000, its highest point in 2025, and up $68,000 YTD.

The Vancouver housing market remains stable but sluggish and perhaps increasingly so. Affordability is slowly improving but remains historically poor

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Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

In this week’s episode, we’re diving deep into one of the most dramatic real estate stories in Canadian history — the Fraser Valley housing boom and bust. During the COVID-era market frenzy, the Fraser Valley became a magnet for buyers looking to escape the city. Between 2020 and 2022, prices in cities like Abbotsford skyrocketed, with the average home price doubling from $500,000 to over $1 million in just two years. Fueled by low interest rates, remote work freedom, and the desire for more space at a better price, the Valley quickly became one of the fastest-appreciating regions in the country.

But the surge didn’t last.

Since the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates in 2022, the Fraser Valley has undergone a rapid reversal. With interest rates now hovering around 5%, the market has softened dramatically, and prices are down approximately 25% from peak levels. In this episode, we’re joined by Fraser Valley real estate advisor Conor Kelly, who walks us through the highs, lows, and what’s next for this once red-hot market. From forced sales and shrinking equity to renewed commuting realities and a cooling demand, we explore how some homeowners are being pushed to sell at a loss and leave the Valley altogether.

We begin by setting the stage with a look at the Fraser Valley before the pandemic. What was this market like pre-2020? And how did it shift so aggressively once the pandemic hit? Conor shares his on-the-ground insights into the feeding frenzy that took hold between 2020 and 2022, as well as how quickly sentiment shifted when interest rates started climbing.

Next, we bring things to the present. The Greater Vancouver market is facing high inventory, slowing sales, and flat-to-declining prices — but is the Fraser Valley operating on a similar trajectory, or is it behaving independently? Conor compares the two markets and helps us understand how local dynamics, migration trends, and economic pressures are shaping today’s Valley.

We also explore an issue that’s starting to impact the entire province — population decline. For the first time outside of pandemic anomalies, BC recorded a population contraction. And while Vancouver grabs the headlines, Conor breaks down how this trend is unfolding in the Valley and what it could mean for long-term demand.

Then we turn to the pre-sale market, a sector facing serious challenges in Vancouver and Toronto, where developer bankruptcies and collapsing buyer confidence are freezing future supply. How is the pre-construction market faring in the Valley? Are developers hitting pause, or is there opportunity for those with longer timelines?

Finally, we look ahead. What does Conor think is in store for the Fraser Valley over the next few years? Will prices rebound? Will affordability improve? And what should buyers or potential movers know before deciding to make the Valley their home?

Whether you’re a buyer, seller, investor, or just curious about where BC’s real estate market is headed, this episode offers critical insights into one of the most volatile and revealing markets in the country. Don’t miss this one — hit play to hear what’s really going on in the Fraser Valley.

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Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

Canada is entering a new and unfamiliar chapter—one defined not by explosive population growth, but by a dramatic slowdown that could rewrite the country’s real estate narrative. In fact, Canada just recorded one of the lowest levels of population growth seen in over 70 years. Only two other quarters in modern history have posted weaker numbers: the height of pandemic lockdowns in 2020 and the global energy downturn of 2015. But now, for the first time outside of a crisis, population growth is grinding to a near halt—and the implications for housing are massive.

Ontario and British Columbia—two provinces that have long driven real estate demand—actually saw population declines in Q1 2025, with Ontario contracting by 5,700 people and B.C. by 2,400. That’s virtually uncharted territory for regions that typically lead the country in net migration and property price acceleration. The federal government’s 2024 decision to scale back immigration targets—both temporary and permanent—has now triggered six consecutive quarters of slowing growth. Meanwhile, non-permanent resident totals dropped by over 61,000, even as deaths outpaced births by more than 5,600. What we’re witnessing is a foundational demographic shift—one that’s sending ripples through every corner of the housing market.

This episode of The Vancouver Life Podcast dives deep into what this demographic reversal means for real estate prices, rental demand, construction starts, and investor sentiment. With record-breaking levels of purpose-built rentals under construction and fewer people arriving to occupy them, we expect continued downward pressure on rental rates. In fact, Metro Vancouver rents have dropped $114 over the past year, including $52 in the last month alone, bringing average monthly rent to $2,223. Even furnished units now offer only marginal premiums, making furniture investments for landlords a poor ROI.

As demand slows, so do housing prices. Canada’s national benchmark price fell for the sixth consecutive month in May, landing at $690,900—the same level we saw in May 2021 and nearly 18% below the 2022 peak. Inventory is rising, with more than 200,000 listings on the market nationwide, yet buyer sentiment remains fragile. Though sales inched up in May, they are still down over 4% year-over-year. And the only provinces seeing real price gains are smaller markets like Manitoba and Newfoundland—while the heavyweights of B.C. and Ontario drag the national average down.

Housing starts are falling too. In B.C., starts dropped 29% from April to May alone. Multi-family builds fell even harder—down 33% month-over-month and 19% compared to last year. The six-month moving average for starts has dropped 30% since its peak in 2023, and that trend is expected to continue. Cities like Nanaimo and Kelowna have seen construction plummet by as much as 75% and 45%, respectively. The result? The pipeline of new housing is drying up—just as rental supply is peaking and demand is waning.

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Dan’s New Channel: www.youtube.com/@VancouversTopRealtor

Ryan’s New Channel: www.youtube.com/@ryan_thevancouverlife

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com