In this Ideas Lab episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with venture capitalist and former founder Aubrie Pagano about what stands between today’s AI hype and a truly transformative AGI economy. Rather than treating AI as destiny, Aubrie maps the frictions that hold it back: hard power limits, fragile industrial data, and agents that still cannot coordinate with humans or each other. She explains why we may be a full capital cycle or two away from real AGI and why that delay is precisely where the best opportunities lie. The conversation then widens into the “Aquarius Economy,” a possible future in which human agency, not algorithms, becomes the scarcest and most valuable asset.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Aubrie on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why agent coordination is still clunky and unreliable

00:38 - Intro to Top Traders Unplugged and performance risk framing

01:34 - Kevin sets up the Ideas Lab and today’s focus on AGI

02:59 - Aubrie’s background as founder, researcher and VC shaping her lens

06:04 - Why she wrote about AGI and the Aquarius Economy

07:21 - AGI as the last cycle built on labor scarcity

10:41 - The blockers framework and why AGI may be a cycle or two away

12:58 - Blocker...

Moritz Siebert speaks with Doug King about what it really means to trade commodities through cycles, distortions, and stress. Drawing on decades at Cargill and more than twenty years running a commodities hedge fund, Doug explains why innovation keeps scarcity narratives in check, why commodities resist buy and hold logic, and how real edge comes from cash markets rather than futures screens. He reflects on defining trades in oil, nickel, and agriculture, the limits of volatility targeting, and the discipline required to survive violent squeezes. The result is a grounded account of conviction, risk control, and why commodities reward patience more than prediction.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Doug on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening remarks and introduction to Top Traders Unplugged

01:24 - Introducing Doug King and his background

04:49 - From Cargill to hedge funds and the pull of commodities

07:05 - Why the fund is purely discretionary and fundamentals driven

09:50 - Team size, selectivity, and waiting for the right trades

10:45 - Why commodities are cyclical and innovation breaks scarcity

13:46 - Electrification and where long term excitement may lie

15:37 - Defining edge in commodities trading

18:12 - Physical delivery, convergence, and real market signals

20:23

Niels and Cem reflect on a year marked by concentration, confidence, and growing structural fragility beneath calm markets. They examine extreme positioning, record low cash levels, and the quiet dominance of reflexive flows over fundamentals. Cem challenges common readings of volatility, explains where real fear hides in options markets, and outlines why tail exposure becomes critical late in cycles. The discussion broadens into portfolio construction, questioning the legacy of 60/40 investing and the illusion of diversification built during falling-rate decades. Grounded in history, market structure, and political cycles, this conversation offers a disciplined framework for navigating regimes where leverage, policy, and inequality quietly redefine risk.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

00:49 - Geopolitical tensions beneath the surface of markets

02:07 - Extreme bullish sentiment and record low cash levels

04:12 - Margin use, positioning, and why this setup is fragile

06:07 - Why the VIX fails as a true fear indicator

11:48 - Buffett’s concentration and risk management through quality

16:27 - Leverage, Sharpe ratios, and misunderstood diversification

21:02 - Trend following performance and late year positioning

23:48 - Positioning, reflexivity, and market microstructure

28:25 - Volatility traps and convexity before stress events

31:06...

In this conversation, the veneer of political continuity is stripped back to reveal a world drifting toward harder borders, sharper identities and a reshaping of power once thought unthinkable. Gary Gerstle traces the erosion of the neoliberal order and the rise of a political logic that places national strength above universal norms. He examines how affordability stress, authoritarian impulses and fragmented parties are redrawing economic life and democratic expectations. The discussion widens into a global map of competing hegemons and the uneasy choices facing Europe and the United States. What emerges is a portrait of a century unsettled, yet not without agency.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Gary on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening remarks on a shifting world and national security visions

00:44 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged and context for the discussion

01:40 - Framing the global macro environment and the need for deeper perspectives

02:24 - Introducing Gary Gerstle and his work on political and economic orders

04:00 - Defining the end of the neoliberal era and what has replaced it

07:02 - The tension between authoritarian forces and liberal democratic hopes

08:17 - Democracy under strain and the implications of Trump’s second term

10:06 - Shock, discipline and the early strategic force of Trump...

This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design?

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series

00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance

02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut

03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals

06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty

08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models

11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals

13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets

16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility

19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation

22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets

28:07...

Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Jeff on LinkedIn.

Find out more about DUNN Capital

Episode Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction, Jeff’s role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda

04:09 - From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence

09:32 - Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation

14:48 - Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification

19:55 - Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression

25:21 - What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha

30:44 - Trend as a systematic return stream and why...