The economists were mostly on-target with today's CPI report, at least with the headline and core figures. But that doesn't mean that there was nothing going on underneath the surface. Below the big headlines, some things are getting better and some things...aren't. What does it all mean, and does the Fed have some cover to cut rates? Listen to this episode to hear the Inflation Guy's take on those questions!

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2024)

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

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To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

"They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance!"

- General John Sedgewick, Union, US Civil War, moments before he was struck by a bullet in the eye.

The tradition of 'famous last words' is alive and well, especially at the Federal Reserve and Treasury. From Bernanke saying the subprime crisis would be contained, to Yellen and Powell describing inflation as 'transitory,' and far beyond - the track record of overly-confident predictions that ultimately turn out to be hilariously wrong is alive and well. In this episode, the Inflation Guy discusses the most-recent candidate, from last week...

NOTES

Blog Callback: “You Cannot Inflate the Debt Away”

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

Blog for last month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)

Interesting Interactive CPI Chart the IG Didn't Even Mention But is Worth Looking At

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Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/

There are several pernicious myths about the velocity of money that seem to never die. "Friedman said velocity is stable." "Velocity is just a plug number, so it is random." "Velocity is permanently impaired and only declines over time." These drive the Inflation Guy bananas, and from time to time he feels the need to talk about velocity. In this episode, the IG describes the main inputs into his model of velocity, and what the model currently implies about the future path of velocity from here. And, to be fair, he also kvetches some, and that's unseemly. We apologize for him.

NOTES

Blog Callback: “Enough With Interest Rates Already”

Podcast Callback: “Ep. 50: What the Money Velocity Comeback Means for Inflation, and Investors”

Important article: “The Inflation Management Opportunities In The Insurance Industry Today”

Blog for this month’s CPI: Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2024)

To Subscribe to Quarterly Inflation Outlook: https://inflationguy.blog/shop/

To Subscribe for free to the blog: https://inflationguy.blog/

Check out the website! https://www.EnduringInvestments.com/