Kerry Lutz and Morgan Lerette discussed various topics related to the challenges and complexities of military engagements in Iraq. They explored Lerette's experiences as a mercenary, the difficulties of nation-building, the challenges of providing support in a self-interested environment, and the historical and contemporary role of private military contractors. The conversation shed light on the lack of coordination between different agencies, the limitations of General Petraeus' strategy, and the difficulties of instilling democratic values in societies where tribal loyalty takes precedence. They also discussed the potential impact of private military contractors on political decision-making and the need for greater scrutiny and regulation in this area.

Kerry Lutz and Mindy McIntosh discussed the implications of the 1.6% annual GDP growth in the first quarter, including the potential effects of rate cuts on mortgage interest rates and CD rates. They also highlighted the importance of consumers having a well-diversified financial plan to combat the erosion of purchasing power due to inflation. The discussion also touched on concerns about the sustainability of the current economic path and the need for a wake-up call to pull back from the brink.

In a separate discussion, they talked about the long-term implications of AI on the economy, emphasizing the need for thoughtful investment strategies and caution against knee-jerk reactions. They also discussed the potential impact of AI on personal interactions and communities, while highlighting the importance of maintaining a balance between technological advancements and human-driven experiences.

Kerry Lutz and Jim Welsh discussed the recent inflation surge and its potential impact on the anticipated Fed rate cuts. They highlighted concerns about the challenges in achieving the inflation target and the potential limitations of traditional monetary and fiscal policies. The conversation also touched on the historical evolution of Fed policy and its potential implications for future economic growth and unemployment rates. Jim Welsh presented a thorough analysis of the market, addressing the potential consequences of social security and deficit spending on treasury bonds and the bond market.

He predicted a new secular bear market in the bond market, signaling a shift in market trends. Welsh also anticipated slower economic growth with higher treasury yields, providing insights into TLT, GDP, the yield curve, the dollar, and gold.

Find Jim here: MacroTides.com

Find Kerry here: FSN and here: inflation.cafe