End Times

Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration

By: Peter Turchin

Narrated by: Robin McAlpine

“Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book.” —Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics

From the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, the groundbreaking new interdisciplinary science of history, a big-picture explanation for America's civil strife and its possible endgames

Peter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for more than a quarter century. End Times is the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States.

Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why.

The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. He calls this process the wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. Turchin’s models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it's very hard to exit.

In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. As cliodynamics shows us, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture. That is only one possible end time, and the choice is up to us, but the hour grows late.

Critic reviews

“In End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, Mr. Turchin offers a lucid and elegant theory that is stable across time and place in the manner of natural laws and scientific findings.” —Wall Street Journal

“Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book.” —Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics

“History is hopelessly complex and unpredictable’: so say most historians. If they were right, we would all be in deep trouble, helpless against a myriad of looming disasters. But Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable–by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You’ll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it.” —Jared Diamond, Pulitzer-Prize-winning author of Guns Germs and Steel

“Arguably the most comprehensive explanation so far of the current and ongoing crisis of American politics . . . End Times [is] required reading for all who are serious about saving or redeeming American democracy.” —Salon

“Scintillating . . . Turchin’s elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It’s a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to.” —Publishers Weekly (starred review)

“Peter Turchin provides a powerful synthesis of the historical forces that have brought American society to the dangerous ledge upon which it now teeters. With both clarity and methodological innovation, Turchin shows us on a grand scale why we must address wealth inequality in order to preserve democracy and our nation's political order.” —Admiral James Stavridis, USN (retired)

“A pre-eminent digital-age seer . . . a great collected narrative of human hope and human failure.” —Tim Adams, Observer

“Extraordinary . . . the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work.” —Niall Ferguson, Bloomberg

“From the man who predicted the rise of Trump-or someone very like him-a remarkably clear, data-driven explanation of why societies fall into crisis, and how to engineer a soft landing.” —The Guardian Summer Reading

History Simulator v2.0

This approach to predicting the trajectory of societies - cliodynamics - strikes a middle path between the Great Man theory of history (which is erroneous), and theory-free big data analyses of history (which are prone to failure). Cliodynamics seeks first to create historically-informed mathematical models of organized groups, then employ big data to exercise said models to make predictions. As an aerospace engineer who has made mathematical models of various aircraft and missiles in order to run simulations, I recognize Turchin as a kindred spirit, and it's high-time someone has used math and complexity science in the employ of history. This is the method (the "v2.0" in my headline nods to Turchin's brief discussion of various antecedents to cliodynamics); what I've not discussed here are Turchin's results, which are fascinating in their own right. A powerful read for the methodology or results alone.

Highly informative

I found this book to be one of the most informative books about why we are in the situation that we find ourselves. There is one truth that does need to be understood that I did not find in this book and that is power and money are a paradox. It is readily believed that power and money gives you security, but the reality is the opposite it gives you insecurity. because of their belief, they are in a never ending struggle to gain more power and money. I believe this is at the root of the problem with the ruling elite.

An interesting thesis left wanting economic depth.

I found this book frustrating. The opening chapters provide an interesting thesis, capturing the writers intentions well. Throughout the work, historical examples are provided, with scenarios both insightful and unnerving. I cannot however, help but feel the work here is unfinished.

This writer has a clear penchant for sociology. The majority of the premise based logic is structured clearly. Economic readers however, may find themselves howling, begging, pleading even, for the writer to explore some of the connections to historical economic events. Several economic statements within the text rely on argumentum ad populum, and other conclusions are drawn in complete absentia of economic premise. The book suffers many the same pitfalls of several 20th and early 21st century sociologist forays into socioeconomics, insofar as while the qualitative sociological logic builds an interesting case, the quantitative pillars to support economic aspects are left wanting. We are left with polling data from inopportune time periods, small sample sizes and even a bit of self coined terminology.

Economic insights are defined within a labor participation and labor wage myopia, eschewing the concepts of economic expansion or the implications of raising or lowering the cost of capital. In a scenario in the early stages of the book, one must only ask, ‘what if the aspirants build another chair?’ One might also consider limiting aspirants by increasing the cost of aspiring. Conversely, would decreasing the cost of aspiring, say over the course of 10 years, lead to more aspirants and thus decrease stability? This myopia is further compounded later in the book, when major monetary events, both in expansion and contraction correlating directly with periods of unrest go unmentioned. What remains is the concept of a ‘wealth pump’ that redistributes wealth within a fixed system, the primary variable being labor.

The sociology and perspectives in this book are engaging. The economic portion of the text could have been a knockout. But on the economic front, we are left with another Keynesian labor story that is grasping far an answer it already has.

Excellent work and incredibly insightful!

Few titles have the power to broaden your worldview, but this one pulls it off like no other. Putting our current political climate and world events in a clear perspective.

Strong, data-centric view societal trends

This was a fascinating, scientifically sound look at societal trends in history and where we are today in context of those trends. It would be easy to like this just because it falls in line with my personal views and assessments (which it does), but I will not fall victim to confirmation bias. From an empirical data science standpoint, this is excellent work. It made me want to dig into the data set that serves as its backbone.