Rubrik, a cloud industry cybersecurity company went public on April 25th - Dave "CAC" Kellogg and Ray "Growth" Rike break down the key metrics that Rubrik used as the foundation to their S-1 and Initial Public Offering. Those metrics include:

• Annual Recurring Revenue Growth
• Revenue (GAAP) Growth
• Net Revenue Retention
• Sales and Marketing Expenses as % of Revenue
• Free Cash Flow versus Net Income

The Metrics Brothers also discuss the Rubrik transition to a recurring revenue model and the two-tier stock structure used to ensure voting control remains with the founders and early investors.

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Dave "CAC" Kellogg and Ray "Growth" Rike discuss how a "growth rate" endures for a SaaS company trend over time!

Topics covered during the conversation include:

• T2D3 Growth Model and Mantra from 2015
• "56789" Growth Model from Metric Brother Dave "CAC" Kellogg
• The Impact of Growth Endurance decreasing to 65% in 2023 versus 80% in 2021

Growth Endurance is the measure of how a company's growth rate endures over time: GE = current year’s growth rate / last year’s growth rate.

At an 80% Growth Endurance (2021 value) says that a companies growth rate in the next year will be 80% of the current years growth

- example: 70% growth this year would predict 56% growth next year

Growth Endurance has decreased over the last two years and is NOW ~ 65% (2023)

- example: 70% growth this year would predict 45.5% growth next year

Growth Endurance decreasing from 80% to 65% may not sound that bad but let's look at the impact over 5 years at a $10M ARR company today but...

• 80% Growth Endurance = $189M ARR in Five Years (starting at $10M ARR)
• 65% Growth Endurance = $122M ARR in Five Years (starting at $10M ARR)

Using a 6.5x "Enterprise Value to Revenue" multiple that projects a material decrease in Enterprise Value 👇

• 80% Growth Endurance = $1.23B Enterprise Value in Five Years
• 65% Growth Endurance = $793M Enterprise Value in Five Years

The change in Growth Endurance translates into a $437M decrease in EV (at the same 6.5x multiple)

🤷‍♂️ If Growth Endurance has decreased by 15% over the past two years and Customer Acquisition Cost & Growth Efficiency have not improved materially over the past 7 quarters it might be time to change ...

The "T2D3" Growth Model suggests the below ARR growth for a B2B SaaS company

• Get to $2M
• Next year: Triple to $6M
• Next year: Triple to $18M
• Next year: Double to $36MNext year: Double to $72M
• Next year: Double to $144M

The "56789" Growth Model suggests the below ARR growth for a B2B SaaS company

• Year 5: $10M
• Year 6:$20M
• Year 7: $50M
• Year 8: $75M
• Year 9:$100M

If you are a fan of B2B SaaS and have a desire or need to stay on top of the most recent trends this episode is a great listen!

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Dave "CAC" Kellogg and Ray "Growth" Rike continue their discussion on the SaaS Metrics Maturity Model which includes the below five levels:

• Level 1: Foundation
• Level 2: Trust
• Level 3: Strategic Linkage
• Level 4: Metrics Culture
• Level 5: Trajectory

Level 1: Lay the foundation

• Definitions and calculations
• Pipeline stages, forecast categories, close dates, values, SaaS metrics
• Semantics - what do words like best case, forecast, commit and downside mean
• Instrument underlying systems (GL, CRM, Billing, HCM, etc)
• Consider Metrics Committee

Level 2: Build trust

• Templates, templates, templates
• Metrics selection & presentation
• History & context - always include footnotes on how metrics are calculated
• Regular Cadence: which templates used at which meetings?
• Continuous improvement - fix data at the source, improve templates

Level 3: Link Metrics to Business Strategy

• Identify your top challenges
• Define 4-6 strategic goals - align metrics to those goals
• Link department, team and individual objectives to the company metrics (OKRs)

Level 4: Build a metrics culture

• Demand numeracy
• Manage to the regular metrics publishing cadence
• Metrics conversations about the business impact NOT the metric calculation method

Level 5: Agree on strategic trajectory

• Long-range, driver-based models
• Timeframe: When are metrics goals targeted to be achieved, what are the milestones towards goal
• Sequencing: Not everything at once - what is the priority order and associated timeframe for each metric's goal

If you are a creator, user or participant in how your company uses metrics to measure performance, inform decision making and/or report performance to your boss, your board and your investors this conversation will be valuable!!!

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