52 days before the election we look at the impact of the formation of Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, and reflect on possible developments after the elections, which may prove more important than what happens before 29 May 2024.

For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

On the eve of the national elections, this episode outlines the broad patterns that can be discerned from poll numbers, and considers possible coalitions if the ANC were to lose their ruling majority. In light of speculation about policy uncertainty and populism, we also look at trends in the 2024 budget.

So what? Expectations that we will have “a new national government” are unrealistic. Nationally, the ANC will still be the biggest party by a margin and will invite other parties to join a coalition if necessary. The major question is whether coalition governments may need to be formed on provincial level. Economic policies, meanwhile, are holding steady. The issue is not uncertainty but the pace of implementation. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.

This episode unpacks the Integrated Resource Plan 2023, recently published for public comment in order to replace the previous version from 2019. It is a deeply disappointing document, visionless and without urgency.

So what? Eskom will not get us out of the our energy crisis. The utility’s energy availability factor keeps falling, sketching a relentless downward trend. Fortunately, regulatory reform since 2021 has opened the way for the private sector to step into the breach. This is happening. An opportunity for re-industrialisation in the sphere of renewable energy still exists. For more about JP, and to read his newsletter, please visit his website.