The End of Telecoms History

By: William Webb, Dennis Roberson

Narrated by: Virtual Voice

Telecoms networks have improved dramatically over the last 150 years. Initially developments were focused on delivering voice calls to homes and then to mobile phones, and then from the 1990s to enabling Internet connectivity. Data capabilities have improved from early 1.2kbit/s modems to networks that can deliver 1Gbits/s or more. And data usage per person has gone from a few Mbytes per month to hundreds of Gbytes – nearly a 1 million-fold increase. It is natural to think this progression will continue forever.

But this is not so. Beyond around 10Mbits/s on mobile phones and around 50-100Mbits/s on fixed broadband, faster data rates make no difference to most. At those speeds there are other constraints such as the Internet servers that limit responsiveness. And our main use – video – only requires 3Mbits/s for high definition or 15Mbits/s for 4k or ultra-high definition. Our use of data is now levelling off, with growth rates already below 20% a year and likely to fall to 0% - a flat level of usage – before the end of the decade.

Those who are well connected, with good home broadband and good mobile coverage have all the connectivity that they need. We no longer need to strive for faster networks, for faster fibre or for the next generation of mobile technology. The journey that started with Morse and Marconi has come to an end. It is the end of history for telecoms.
Of course, users would like all of this for less, and they would like ubiquity, especially in mobile connectivity and this can be delivered with appropriate government targets and regulatory action. And there are many users, especially in developing countries, who do not have good connectivity, or in some cases any connectivity. Delivering sufficiency to all remains a major challenge.

This change from seeking ever-better networks to having all we need has huge consequences. Politicians should stop fixating on the latest “greatest” technology and instead be concerned about delivering ubiquity at lowest cost. Regulators need to rely less on market forces and assumptions that they will be auctioning spectrum periodically and look instead at regulation focused on improving fixed and mobile coverage. Operators should accept that they are bit pipes and adopt a utility-like strategy and equipment suppliers need to adapt to a market where operators will replace equipment as it becomes obsolete but will not adopt new technology or expand their network. Innovation should focus on cost reduction rather than capacity enhancement.

This book explains why we have reached the end of Telecoms history and looks at the implications in detail. It is a second edition of a book originally published in 2024, updated with the latest data points and numerous additional discussions around comments received on the first edition and important new topics that needed to be included to more completely address the topic.