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Thinking in Bets
- Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
- Narrado por: Annie Duke
- Duración: 6 h y 50 m
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Grandes primeros Títulos
Resumen del Editor
Wall Street Journal bestseller!
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
Reseñas de la Crítica
"A big favorite among investors these days."–The New York Times
"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world."–Marc Andreessen
"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work."–Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge
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Historia
If you want to know the truth about what professional day trading is like—and how to get started with a solid foundation—then this will be the most important book you'll listen to all year. Ross Cameron is the guy who turned an initial investment of $583 into more than $10 million. No, his results aren't typical—and in fact, day trading didn’t come easily to him. This book describes what it's really like to go from knowing nothing about day trading to becoming highly successful at it.
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easy listening audiobook that's well written
- De Nathan en 07-25-24
De: Ross Cameron
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Dark Pools
- The Rise of the Machine Traders and the Rigging of the U.S. Stock Market
- De: Scott Patterson
- Narrado por: Byron Wagner
- Duración: 11 h y 36 m
- Versión completa
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In the beginning was Josh Levine, an idealistic programming genius who dreamed of wresting control of the market from the big exchanges that, again and again, gave the giant institutions an advantage over the little guy. Levine created a computerized trading hub named "Island" where small traders swapped stocks, and over time his invention morphed into a global electronic stock market that sent trillions in capital through a vast jungle of fiber-optic cables.
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Definitive history on Electronic Trading
- De Gary en 08-17-12
De: Scott Patterson
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The Little Book of Market Wizards
- Lessons from the Greatest Traders
- De: Jack D. Schwager
- Narrado por: Danny Campbell
- Duración: 3 h y 49 m
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What differentiates the highly successful market practitioners - the Market Wizards - from ordinary traders? What traits do they share? What lessons can the average trader learn from those who achieved superior returns for decades while still maintaining strict risk control? In The Little Book of Market Wizards, Jack Schwager seeks to distill what he considers the essential lessons he learned in conducting nearly four dozen interviews with some of the world's best traders.
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MARKET WIZARDS GREATEST HITS
- De Donald Vandenbord en 11-25-23
De: Jack D. Schwager
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Super Thinking
- The Big Book of Mental Models
- De: Gabriel Weinberg, Lauren McCann
- Narrado por: René Ruiz
- Duración: 12 h y 37 m
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The world's greatest problem-solvers, forecasters, and decision-makers all rely on a set of frameworks and shortcuts that help them cut through complexity and separate good ideas from bad ones. They're called mental models, and you can find them in dense textbooks on psychology, physics, economics, and more. Or, you can just listen to Super Thinking, a fun, illustrated guide to every mental model you could possibly need.
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Author falls in the same mental traps he talks...
- De gimenez en 08-04-19
De: Gabriel Weinberg, y otros
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Superforecasting
- The Art and Science of Prediction
- De: Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
- Narrado por: Joel Richards
- Duración: 9 h y 45 m
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Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight.
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Great for Experts
- De Michael en 02-20-17
De: Philip Tetlock, y otros
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Thinking, Fast and Slow
- De: Daniel Kahneman
- Narrado por: Patrick Egan
- Duración: 20 h y 2 m
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The guru to the gurus at last shares his knowledge with the rest of us. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman's seminal studies in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, and happiness studies have influenced numerous other authors, including Steven Pinker and Malcolm Gladwell. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman at last offers his own, first book for the general public. It is a lucid and enlightening summary of his life's work. It will change the way you think about thinking. Two systems drive the way we think and make choices, Kahneman explains....
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Difficult Listen, but Probably a Great Read
- De Mike Kircher en 01-12-12
De: Daniel Kahneman
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The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- De: Shane Parrish
- Narrado por: Shane Parrish
- Duración: 3 h y 23 m
- Versión completa
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The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
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A dissapointing debut
- De Peter en 04-14-19
De: Shane Parrish
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Alpha Trader
- The Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading
- De: Brent Donnelly
- Narrado por: Brent Donnelly
- Duración: 12 h y 59 m
- Versión completa
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Trading is a chaotic, complex, and loosely-structured game played by the smartest minds and most expensive computers in the world. It is the ultimate puzzle. Few can trade at an elite level for an extended period. The game is constantly changing and the rules, mechanics, and probabilities are difficult to observe and forever in flux. Just when you think you’ve got a plan: BAM.
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Nothing special
- De JM en 04-09-24
De: Brent Donnelly
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The Revolt of The Public and the Crisis of Authority in the New Millennium
- De: Martin Gurri
- Narrado por: Tony Messano
- Duración: 13 h y 42 m
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Originally published in 2014, this updated edition of The Revolt of the Public includes an extensive analysis of Donald Trump's improbable rise to the presidency and the electoral triumphs of Brexit and concludes with a speculative look forward, pondering whether the current elite class can bring about a reformation of the democratic process and whether new organizing principles, adapted to a digital world, can arise out of the present political turbulence.
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New forces break things, but can't replace them
- De Philo en 06-25-19
De: Martin Gurri
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Thinking in Systems
- A Primer
- De: Donella H. Meadows
- Narrado por: Tia Rider Sorensen
- Duración: 6 h y 26 m
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In the years following her role as the lead author of the international best seller, Limits to Growth - the first book to show the consequences of unchecked growth on a finite planet - Donella Meadows remained a pioneer of environmental and social analysis until her untimely death in 2001. Thinking in Systems is a concise and crucial book offering insight for problem-solving on scales ranging from the personal to the global. Edited by the Sustainability Institute's Diana Wright, this essential primer brings systems thinking out of the realm of computers and equations and into the tangible world....
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Skip to the Middle
- De John Chambers en 06-20-20
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Better Decisions, Fewer Regrets
- 5 Questions to Help You Determine Your Next Move
- De: Andy Stanley
- Narrado por: Andy Stanley
- Duración: 4 h y 9 m
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Why do we hear this so often on the back side of a bad decision? Because the more questions we ask, the more insight we gain and the better decisions we make. In Better Decisions, Fewer Regrets, Andy Stanley equips us with five catalytic questions to ask every time we make a decision. The result? Well, the title says it all!
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too preachy
- De Aryn en 02-18-21
De: Andy Stanley
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Best Loser Wins
- Why Normal Thinking Never Wins the Trading Game
- De: Tom Hougaard
- Narrado por: Richard Faymonville
- Duración: 6 h y 48 m
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Normal thinking leads to normal results. For exceptional results, traders must think differently. This book will guide and inspire you in ways no other trading book has. It is not about strategies and money management. It is about mind management. Tom Hougaard provides a unique and refreshingly personal account of how an ordinary trader elevated his game to incredible heights by focusing as much on his mental approach as on his technical analysis. Best Loser Wins explains how you, by thinking differently when you are trading, can elevate your game from mediocre to excellent.
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A book for every trader!
- De David I George en 02-26-23
De: Tom Hougaard
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Stumbling on Happiness
- De: Daniel Gilbert
- Narrado por: Daniel Gilbert
- Duración: 7 h y 26 m
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A smart and funny book by a prominent Harvard psychologist, which uses groundbreaking research and (often hilarious) anecdotes to show us why we’re so lousy at predicting what will make us happy–and what we can do about it. Most of us spend our lives steering ourselves toward the best of all possible futures, only to find that tomorrow rarely turns out as we had expected. Why? As Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert explains, when people try to imagine what the future will hold, they make some basic and consistent mistakes.
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Great Book!
- De TL en 06-09-06
De: Daniel Gilbert
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Probability
- Risk Management, Statistics, Combinations and Permutations for Business
- De: Daniel Covington
- Narrado por: Martin James
- Duración: 6 h y 9 m
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Whether you are retail employee or a budding entrepreneur, or really just someone looking to contribute to your place of work, you will surely encounter problems that require planning and analysis to address them. What you may not know is that, most of the time statistics, specifically probability and its concepts, will often give you an edge in identifying solutions and strategies to help you move forward with a great plan.
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Wanted to like it, just couldn't.
- De I buy too much! en 07-18-23
De: Daniel Covington
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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- Incerto, Book 1
- De: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
- Narrado por: Joe Ochman
- Duración: 8 h y 57 m
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Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb - veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur has penned a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill - the world of trading - Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives.
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Not for MBAs and Economist
- De Ekele Onuh Oscar en 06-19-19
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Thinking in Bets
Calificaciones medias de los clientesReseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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- C. Veloso
- 08-21-18
The functional version of Thinking Fast And Slow
Easily digestible. Immediately applicable. Information was not sacrificed for brevity. Not too long like Kahneman’s book.
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- Soheil
- 07-04-18
Required reading for all traders
Of all the books I have read, this book has made the most impact on my trading results. It takes a concept presented by Mark Douglas in Trading in the Zone and crystallizes it. For everyone who seeks certainty in trading and investing, this is a must read.
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- Azura S
- 11-13-18
Not Bad But A Bit Of A Restatement...
...of Thinking Fast and Slow. This is decently narrated (though I don't love the author's accent) and the ideas are completely sound. I just don't feel like it adds much to Kahneman's research even if it is told in poker terms rather than more general economic terms. Glad I read it. Would definitely read this author again.
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- Anonymous User
- 01-18-19
Good book
This is a good book
Starts of great, think the concept has good real world application, and the analogies and stories are used well however the book seems a little stretched out, could have been more concise
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- Mital
- 08-07-18
ENJOYABLE !!!
Very much enjoyed the book. Annie did a great job narrating.
Annie can't wait for your 2nd book!
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- T. Leach
- 07-02-18
Great book with life lessons
I will listen and team this book over and to calibrate my thinking. Great book
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- Anonymous User
- 04-27-18
Thinking in Bets without metrics
Although the Tyranny of Metrics argues against numbers, the one thing that would have helped a five star is numbers. Thinking in Bets is a great book and the author is an expert in poker and cognitive psychology, but numbers are too my opinion mandatory to underline statements. How often, what chance, how long etc.? Still a very nice book, probably most for novels in the field of cognitive traps, heuristics or decision making.
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- Jeffrey
- 05-19-18
A whole new set of tools for decision making
I burned right through this one and will listen again in a couple of weeks. Annie does a great job on multiple levels.
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- William
- 10-11-18
Really enjoyed this one.
Forces honest self examination. Different way of looking at learning that keeps truth seeking as primary objective.
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- Melvin
- 12-11-19
Excellent Book, it is a life changer...
Thinking in bets is a new philosophy that can change your life.
Listen to it with an open mind, start new thinking about the probabilities in your life instead of the results you have....
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