LockBit, the world's largest ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) provider suffered a very public takedown by an international law enforcement task force, Operation Cronos.

The ransomware behemoth quickly relaunched just days later. But in a world where trust is key, might the reputational damage be too great?

This is the story of the rise of LockBit, its relationship with other infamous cybercriminal groups, its uneasy relationship with some affiliates, its curious leader LockBitsupp, the public takedown and the relaunch, and what this means for the future of ransomware-as-a-service.

Speaker(s):

Koryak Uzan, Co-founder & Managing Director of PRODAFT

Links:

GITOC - The Rise and Fall of the Conti ransomware group

PRODAFT - LockBit: Behind the Lines of the Notorious RaaS

PRODAFT - The Demise of LOCKBIT: Disrupting the Most Prominent Ransomware Gang by Utilizing Upstream Threat...

Russian organized crime has a mythology attached to it - the brutal tattooed men of the Vory v Zakone. But those days are long in the past, rapid globalisation saw a new type of organized criminal take the reins in the Russian underworld, spreading their influence as criminal facilitators across the world.

But the war in Ukraine has changed that. It's changed the relationship between organized crime and the Russian state, the status quo within the established criminal order, the potential vacuum left by those criminals who fight and die in the conflict, the establishment of Russian criminal groups outside of the country, the flows of illicit goods themselves have evolved, and then Ukraine, once so critical to those illicit flows, is currently lost.

Such is the uncertainty surrounding organized crime that there have been rumblings about a possible return to a dark period in Russian history, known as the 'Wild 90s' - a period of anarchy that is etched into the Russian psyche.

Speaker(s):

Mark Galeotti, the Executive Director of Mayak Intelligence, honorary professor at University College London, member of the GI Network. Author of ‘The Vory: Russia’s Super Mafia' and the GI-TOC paper: Time of Troubles: The Russian underworld since the Ukraine invasion

Links:

(GI Paper) Rebellion as racket: Crime and the Donbas conflict 2014-2022

(GI Paper) Evolving drug trends in wartime Ukraine

(GI Analysis) The devil’s not-so-new psychoactive substance: Alpha-PVP, a highly addictive synthetic drug, is experiencing growing demand in Ukraine.

(GI Paper) Crossroads: Kazakhstan's changing illicit drug economy

(GI Paper) Port in a storm: Organized crime in Odesa since the Russian invasion

(Podcast) “Death Can Wait”: Drugs on the Frontline in Ukraine

Research Links:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/23/russian-artist-fined-for-extremist-toy-doll-with-prison-tattoos-a82852

https://tass.ru/obschestvo/9218777

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/08/17/russia-outlaws-childrens-criminal-underground-movement-a71178

At the start of the year masked gunman burst into a television studio in Guayaquil, Ecuador. The cameras were live and the entire event was broadcast. The video shows gang members shouting at staff, pushing them to the ground, threatening them with guns and explosives. These pictures subsequently travelled around the world.

But this event was just one in a series to hit Ecuador in a short space of time. Car bombs, kidnappings, murder, prison riots, prominent prisoner escapes, and another national state of emergency.

Criminal violence has washed over the country as competing gangs like Los Choneros and Los Lobos battle in prisons and on the streets over control of the lucrative cocaine trafficking business. Foreign organized criminal actors like the Mexican Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartels, the Albanian Mafia, FARC dissident groups from Colombia, and others, are all active in Ecuador, a country described as a "cocaine superhighway".

In the space of just five or so years, Ecuador has gone from one of the safest countries in Latin America to a country with one of the highest murder rates. In this episode we are going to talk about how this happened.

Speaker(s):

Felipe Botero Escobar, the Head of Andean Programmes at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime

GI-TOC:

(Paper) Organized crime declares war: The road to chaos in Ecuador

(Blog) Fernando Villavicencio - Assassination Witness Project

The Global Organized Crime Index - Ecuador Country Profile

(Paper) Transnational Tentacles: Global Hotspots of Balkan Organized Crime

(Podcast episode) The Index - Ecuador

(Paper) The cocaine pipeline to Europe

Additional...

'The King is dead, long live the King!'

In September 2023, Ovidio Guzmán López, the son of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán, stood in a courtroom as a series of charges were laid out, including his alleged role as a leader of the Sinaloa Cartel.

There is a long list of cartel and organized crime leaders over the past few decades who have been targeted through what become known as the 'Kingpin Strategy'. The strategy aims to weaken, destabilise, and destroy criminal groups through a variety of methods, but is not without critics.

In this episode of Deep Dive: Monitoring, we look at the arrest of Ovidio, the history and impact of the Kingpin Strategy, how organized crime responds to a prominent criminal leader being removed, the so-called "Narco-Culture" that surrounds criminal actors, and the impact it has on the communities bearing the greatest impact of these criminal groups.

Speaker:

Siria Gastelum Felix, the Director of Resilience, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime - Link

GITOC:

OC Index - Mexico

OC Index - Colombia

Clan del Golfo: The fall of 'Otoniel' - How Colombia's biggest drug lord was taken down.

Mexico’s war with itself? ¿La guerra de México consigo mismo?

Additional Reading:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cmlj7cFHlsA

https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/criminal-prosecution-drug-traffickers-under-continuing-criminal

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-66853111

https://insightcrime.org/colombia-organized-crime-news/oficina-de-envigado-profile/

https://insightcrime.org/colombia-organized-crime-news/auc-profile/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-66784678

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/20/colombias-coca-crops-grew-to-historic-levels-last-year-un

https://museum.dea.gov/video-archive/kingpin-strategy-did-it-work

https://justiceinmexico.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/OCVM-21.pdf

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=CO&most_recent_value_desc=true

“If you can do it without consequences, then you should do it”.

What are illicit Financial Flows, or IFFs? And why do they matter?

Every illicit market, from drug trafficking, people smuggling, the illegal wildlife trade, arms trafficking etc. all are connected to IFFs. IFFs are about the movement of money across borders that is illegal in some way.

The money could be from a criminal act, like corruption or its money associated with the illicit markets above. Perhaps, it could be legitimately earned money that is transferred in a way that evades taxation, like being paid in cash and not declaring it or money is funnelled into complex corporate schemes and secrecy jurisdictions. Or perhaps its ultimate use is something like terrorist financing or funding organised criminal activity.

Dirty money is a global problem, according to the IMF, it makes up between 2-5% (up to $5.25 trillion dollars) of global GDP.

Given the scale of the problem, in this episode we will focus in on the Western Balkans in South-Eastern Europe through three IFFs - money laundering investigations in Kosovo, corruption and the role of the private sector in Albania, and tax evasion in Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Speaker(s):

Dardan Kocani, Field Coordinator for Kosovo for the South Eastern Europe Observatory at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime

Sokol Toska, Legal Auditor in Albania and expert in money laundering and illicit financial flows.

Anesa Agovich, Field Coordinator for Bosnia and Herzegovina at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

Links:

Illicit financial flows in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia: Key drivers and current trends

Illicit Financial Flows in Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia: Key drivers and current trends

Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

Global Organized Crime Index

Research Links:

 https://www.europol.europa.eu/cms/sites/default/files/documents/europol-review-2016.pdf

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-105-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/

https://www.ibe.org.uk/resource/tax-avoidance-as-an-ethical-issue-for-business.html

https://www.transparency.org/en/corruptionary/tax-evasion

https://albaniandailynews.com/news/wanted-for-incinerators-affair-stela-gugallja-detained-in-austria...

In September 2023, there were four large cocaine seizures in and around the Atlantic Ocean - off the coast of Ireland, West Africa, Brazil, and Cape Verde.

The flows of cocaine that traverse the Atlantic travel mainly by sea, from the huge bulk carriers to small fishing vessels or sailing boats. Much of this illicit drug ends in the cocaine markets of Europe.

In this episode of Deep Dive: Monitoring, we briefly take a look at the seizures, what they mean for cocaine markets and the organized criminal networks involved. And do drug seizures make a dent in this multi-billion dollar industry?

Speaker:

Jason Eligh, Senior Expert, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime and Thematic Lead of the GI-TOC's Global Drug Program - Link

Papers:

The cocaine pipeline to Europe

Atlantic connections: The PCC and the Brazil-West Africa cocaine trade

West Africa's Cocaine Corridor: Building a subregional response

Cocaine politics in West Africa: Guinea-Bissau's protection networks

A powder storm: The cocaine markets of East and southern Africa

Additional Reading:

https://www.donegaldaily.com/2023/10/03/gardai-believe-e157m-drugs-gang-tried-to-buy-boat-in-killybegs/

https://www.sundayworld.com/crime/cocaine-bust-trawler-remains-wedged-on-sandbank-off-wexford-coast/a295844397.html

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-41235682.html

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:5058595/mmsi:250004351/imo:0/vessel:CASTLEMORE

https://afloat.ie/safety/marine-warning/item/26428-marine-notice-aim-requirements-for-seagoing-passenger-ships

https://www.irishtimes.com/crime-law/2023/09/28/us-sanctions-colombian-cartel-leader-linked-to-157m-irish-cocaine-haul/

https://www.policia.es/_es/comunicacion_prensa_detalle.php?ID=15905

Scam call centres are a blight on the lives of anyone unfortunate enough to have any dealings with them. They come to you with promises of a short cut to wealth, to fix a non-existent issue with your computer, claiming to be from a charity, threatening you with arrest for unpaid taxes.

There are 70 million of these phone calls worldwide every day and they generate billions of dollars each year. Organized crime is very much a part of this industry from Mexico to India and from the Philippines to Ukraine.

In this episode we delve into the hundreds, possibly thousands of scam call centres based in Ukraine, where investment scams are mainly targeting Russians.

Links:

Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

PORT IN A STORM: Organized crime in Odesa since the Russian invasion

New front lines: Organized criminal economies in Ukraine in 2022

Global Organized Crime Index

Additional Reading:...

For over half a century armed groups in Colombia have battled one another and the state across the country. The FARC, ELN, AUC, AGC, and the infamous drug cartels, have committed untold atrocities on everyday Colombians. These groups use violence to control the local population and to assert territorial control over illicit drug production and trafficking routes.

This episode is about the people who live in those areas, those that have suffered at the hands of armed groups and organized crime, and those who put themselves at risk to fight for a better future for their communities.

Speaker(s):

Felipe Botero Escobar, Head of Colombia Programmes, Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime

Joshua Mitrotti - Director of Somos Comunidad (Resilience Community). Somos Comunidad is backed by USAID, and implemented by FUPAD Colombia and the PADF, who work alongside GI-TOC. Through a series initiatives in rural communities affected by violence, Somos Comunidad is trying to enhance community resilience and contribute to human security.

Community Leaders – Yolima, Yenis, Nancy, Luz, Luis

Initiative Beneficiaries – Jamileth, Dana, Dayanis, Nicole, Sofia

Links:

Somos Comunidad

Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

PADF

Research Links:

https://www.eluniversal.com.co/sucesos/masacre-en-el-carmen-de-bolivar-mi-hijo-era-un-nino-venia-de-la-tienda-NF3447834

https://aldianews.com/en/culture/destinations/worlds-first-soda-pop

https://www.semana.com/nacion/cartagena/articulo/golpe-a-la-delincuencia-caen-13-presuntos-integrantes-de-la-subestructura-heroes-del-caribe/202204/

https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/former-leader-violent-clan-del-golfo-drug-trafficking-organization-pleads-guilty

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?locations=CO

https://colombiareports.com/assassinations-driving-increase-in-colombias-homicides-report/