Four and a half years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin hasn’t won. But Russia hasn’t been isolated either.

In this episode of Disorder latest, Jason is joined by Russia expert Hanna Notte, author of We Shall Outlast Them: Putin’s Global Campaign to Defeat the West, to explore how the Ukraine war has become the organising principle of Russian foreign policy — and a much wider struggle over global order.

How has Moscow cultivated relationships with China, India, Iran and the Global South? Does Russia actively benefit from global Disorder? And does Putin really need to keep fighting to preserve his regime — or does he continue simply because he believes Russia can still outlast Ukraine and its Western supporters?

Hanna also draws on her years living in and travelling through Russia to unpack stoikost — endurance and resilience — and the Russian narratives of suffering, self-reliance and victimhood.

As they Order the Disorder, they look at what would actually prove Putin’s wager wrong? Hanna argues that Europe needs above all to remain steady: keep Ukraine economically and militarily viable, strengthen its air defences, squeeze Russia’s oil revenues and shadow fleet, and demonstrate that Moscow cannot simply wait for Western resolve to collapse.

For Mega Orderers, hear Jason and Hanna get much more granular about where the war stands right now.

Join the Mega Orderers Club for the full bonus:

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SHOW NOTES

Buy Hanna Notte’s We Shall Outlast Them: Putin’s Global Campaign to Defeat the West in the UK:

https://www.hatchards.co.uk/book/we-shall-outlast-them/hanna-notte/9781324117018

Hanna Notte discusses We Shall Outlast Them on the Kennan Institute’s The Long View — Putin’s Campaign to Defeat the West:

https://www.kennaninstitute.org/past-events

Mark Galeotti’s In Moscow’s Shadows:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746

Mark Galeotti on Hidden Forces — The West’s Forgotten War and the New Russia:

https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/the-wests-forgotten-war-and-the-new-russia-mark-galeotti/

Disorder Ep. 196 with Jamison Firestone — Rule of Lies: The Origin Story of Putin’s Russia:

https://podcasts.apple.com/id/podcast/ep-196-rule-of-lies-the-origin-story-of/id1706818264?i=1000777642161

Disorder with Marcel Dirsus — Dictators’ Disordering Quest for Internal Security:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ep67-dictators-disordering-quest-for-internal-security/id1706818264?i=1000669774299

Disorder:

https://disordershow.com/

Mega Orderers Club:

https://disordershow.com/club

It’s our favourite time of the month: listener questions time! Jason and Jane tackle migration and assimilation, the rise of the AfD and neo-populism, and what Keir Starmer’s legacy tells us about the failure of technocratic politics to offer a compelling vision of the future.

Then: is AI going to destroy humanity — or merely our jobs and our sanity? Could agentic AI military systems create their own escalatory feedback loops? And why might we need a kind of NATO for AI?

Finally, we turn to Yemen, the Houthis and the Red Sea, before asking what the Fed’s surprise interest-rate hike tells us about the importance of independent institutions.

Mega Orderers Bonus: Is Unregulated Capitalism Hacking Our Evolution?: Pls join the Mega Orderers Club for this unmissable treatment of topics like… Why does AI flatter us? And what do sycophantic chatbots, sugar, porn, gambling and neo-populist strongmen have in common? Jason and Jane explore evolutionary mismatch and ask whether we need a GLP-1 for our addiction to Disorder.

Join the Mega Orderers Club: https://www.disordershow.com/club

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack -

https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube -

https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

SHOWNOTES LINKS

George McDonagh’s Black Box: The Chatbots series for The Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/audio/2026/sep/03/black-box-the-chatbots-spirals-ai-psychosis-podcast

The Guardian on AI sycophancy:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/jun/02/ai-sycophancy-risk-to-society-grasp-reality

The Guardian on the Fed raising US interest rates:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/sep/16/us-federal-reserve-votes-hike-rates

The Guardian on Yemen, the Houthis and the wider regional conflict:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/10/violence-erupts-in-yemen-again-why-it-matters-globally-and-how-it-is-linked-to-the-us-iran-war

The Guardian on the latest anti-Houthi military developments:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/18/yemen-anti-houthi-forces-inquest-military-collapse

Twenty-five years after 9/11, did America respond to an attack on the Western Order by inadvertently helping to disorder that Order itself?

Jason is joined by Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Ben Hodges, former Commanding General of U.S. Army Europe, to look back at 9/11, Iraq, Afghanistan and the collapse of NATO allies trust in the USA—and forward to how Ukraine can win and the defence of Europe. Hodges argues that military power is only useful when attached to a clear strategic objective and Congressional and popular buy-in: a lesson America repeatedly forgot after 9/11.

They then turn to Ukraine: drones, long-range strikes, manpower, democratic legitimacy and Europe's continuing failure to develop sufficient air and missile defence. In the Ordering the Disorder section, General Hodges argues that Europe should stop thinking about merely improving Ukraine's negotiating position and instead help it defeat Russia—while rebuilding the alliances and institutions that once magnified American power.

Join the Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club to get Jason's response to the interview, including his own reflections on 9/11 and whether power without clear objectives, functioning alliances and an idea of the Order it is seeking to create can itself become an engine of Disorder.

SHOWNOTES LINKS

Democrats v Dictators with Ben Hodges on his personal background:

https://youtu.be/9eOKx6iVTx8?is=PJsO4AA9lfIk_5ru

Ben Hodges — Association of the United States Army:

https://www.ausa.org/people/ben-hodges

NATO — Collective Defence and Article 5:

https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/introduction-to-nato/collective-defence-and-article-5

Disorder — NATO: A Model for Ordering the Disorder? with Jamie Shea, Kori Schake, Timothy Garton Ash and Charles Kupchan:

https://podfollow.com/disorder/episode/484e21562b7dcd1a1a1f570a09343fd68bf6e732/view

Join the Mega Orderers Club:

https://disordershow.com/club

A great power battle is emerging between Russia, China and Washington… and Europe teeters on the edge of all three. Could this break up the union? And is the European reliance on America over?

To find out, Jason is joined by author and Director of the Moynihan Center of European Studies at Syracuse University, Glyn Morgan. His latest book The Rise and Fall of American Europe charts the rise and fall of the 80-year history of what he calls American Europe.

Jason and Glyn discuss how this system emerged off the back of Roosevelt's plans to dismantle both fascism and British imperial power, why it delivered decades of European prosperity, and why that’s now under threat.

Plus: European complacency on defence, Macron's failed warnings, and - as they Order the Disorder - Glyn imagines a future where Europe works together for defense, with Britain’s role as a guardian of the Atlantic Sea.

To get an extended version of the episode, join the Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

Producer: Sam Cluley

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Shownotes:

Get The Rise and Fall of American Europe by Glyn Morgan

https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=the-rise-and-fall-of-american-europe--9781509573202

For more on Glyn visit his Syracuse University faculty page

https://www.maxwell.syr.edu/directory/glyn-morgan

For more on our partnership with the New Books Network

https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder

This week, Jason is joined by one of his academic idols, Laura Spinney. Laura is a much-esteemed author of Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How it Changed the World, and her incredible newer book Proto: How One Ancient Language Went Global.

PROTO tells the story of how modern Indo-European languages came into being North of the Black Sea and then traveled East—the length of the steppe, north of the Caucasus, then into the Silk Roads and the Hindu Kush—and West—from the Hungarian steppe into the forest lands of Western Europe. In this episode, Jason and Laura discuss the Yamnaya nomads who spread these languages throughout the world; the central role of Ukraine in pre-history and its centrality now and in the future as a pivot of human civilization; and as they Order the Disorder: they discuss the need for an institution to preserve global memory, so that we as humans can avoid making the same mistakes of the past.

To get the rest of the bonus content associated with this multi-part episode, i.e. a discussion about who are the Celts and Jason’s views on Proto and how ancient linguistic history can shed light on the demographic and climate change problems of today, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

Get Proto: How One Ancient Language Went Global https://harpercollins.co.uk/products/proto-how-one-ancient-language-went-global-laura-spinney?variant=56326451724667

Listen - Laura Spinney: rise of the proto-Indo-Europeans https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/laura-spinney-rise-of-the-proto-indo-europeans/id1542136715?i=1000708790296

For more on Laura visit https://www.lauraspinney.com/

For more on our partnership with the New Books Network - https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder

This week Jason is joined by old friend and former Disorder co-host Arthur Snell, former British diplomat, host of Behind the Lines, and author of Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive It.

Jason and Arthur start with the seemingly never-ending Iran war. Has Trump’s threatened “economic D-Day” achieved anything? Has it really even been implemented? Jason argues that Iran could become America’s Suez moment: not another Vietnam, but an debacle exposing the limits of American power and its inability to Order the world without its allies.

They then turn to the U.S. midterms, whether the Democrats can retake Congress, and their continuing failure to articulate a coherent national message. And behind both American and British politics lurks another constraint: the bond market. With rising borrowing costs limiting what governments can actually do, could markets and independent institutions provide some of the feedback loops that politics increasingly lacks?

Next up is Andy Burnham’s back-to-school moment. Can he rebuild Britain’s relationship with Europe, stand up to Trump and make better use of Britain’s considerable geopolitical leverage? Jason proposes an “elbows up rule”: medium powers confronting Trump need to articulate clear red lines and stick to them rather than succumbing to appeasement.

Finally, Arthur draws on his book Elemental to explain how the devastating Nepal floods reveal a much bigger climate and geopolitical problem. Billions depend on water originating in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, potentially intensifying tensions between China, India and Pakistan. Like Libya’s Derna disaster, it illustrates an Enduring Disorder: foreseeable risks that fragmented institutions repeatedly fail to prepare for.

To Order the Disorder, Arthur calls for rebuilding British soft power through refunding the BBC World Service, British Council and universities, while Jason proposes a clear Burnham Doctrine on Britain’s place in the world. And despite the climate crisis, Arthur offers some grounds for optimism: much of the technology needed for the energy transition already exists — the challenge is turning it into policies governments can actually deliver and then maintaining the will to implement them.

For Mega Orderers Club members, Jason and Arthur continue with a bonus discussion on the Liberal Democrats and their place in Britain’s rapidly changing political landscape. Join the club at disordershow.com/club to get that immediately.

SHOWNOTE LINKS:

Join the Mega Orderers Club and get the Arthur Snell intro to who are the Lib Dems, what are they doing, and what do they believe in:
https://www.disordershow.com/club

Arthur Snell’s Elemental
https://www.panmacmillan.com/authors/arthur-snell/elemental/9781529097016

Arthur Snell’s Behind the Lines
https://shows.acast.com/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell

Arthur’s Not All Doom Substack
https://arthursnell.substack.com/

Join the Mega Orderers Club
https://www.disordershow.com/club

Disorder on YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Ordering the Disorder on Substack
https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

In this episode, we return to Simon Sebag Montefiore’s tour de force, The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East. Jason and Sebag divide the continuation of their discussion into two parts: 1) An analysis of what makes the Middle East a ‘Cauldron’ and what has the region’s role in 20th and 21st century global history been as an exporter of disorder or importer and then processor of the global disorder happening around it; 2) Our attempt to order the disorder with a lightening round where I ask Sebag impossibly big questions: first about big themes on civilization, religion, and history and then about how to fix the Middle East.

The crux of the episode is: What makes the Middle East unique as a region? Is it its geography, relation to religion, legacy of empires, connection to oil resources, or being the fulcrum where Asia, Europe, and Africa meet? Sebag thinks it is all of the above, Jason thinks it is its culture and lack of institutional legacy and public spiritedness.. he discussed this in the bonus bit for Mega Orderers.. They also delve into the role of Pakistan, America, Russia, and Britain in the Middle Eastern region and how part of the region’s uniqueness is how it sucks in other powers for ideological, religious, and oil reasons.

To get the bonus content associated with this two-part episode, i.e. Jason views on the role of culture and institutions in making the Middle East a Cauldron, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

When you log in there after joining you will get Jason’s micro episode for members of the Mega-Orderers Club only on A CULTURAL CRITIQUE OF WHERE THE DISORDER of the Middle east COMES FROM—as he debate’s the establishment on the region’s uniquely dysfunctional culture and institutional legacies of greed of clan and faction and whether the Middle East is in fact unique or just like everywhere else when it comes to its a profound absence of public spiritedness.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To get the book https://www.amazon.co.uk/Cauldron-Making-Modern-Middle-East/dp/1399634895/

As for what is happening with Iran and the economic D-Day: https://thehill.com/policy/international/6045556-iran-warns-middle-east-us-economic-war/

How the US and Middle East allies flipped the oil script on Iran:

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/22/business/oil-strait-of-hormuz-iran

To get the bonus content associated with part 2, i.e. the rule of culture and institutions in making the Middle East a Cauldron, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

This week, Jason is joined by esteemed British historian and author, Simon Sebag Montefiore, to discuss his latest book, The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East. Jason and Sebag’s discussion ranges over centuries of history and ping pongs back and forth on myriad topics. It tries to make the peripheral central by putting the non-Arab, non-Sunni groups at the centre of understanding the Modern Middle East.

They unpack how the Middle East became the Disorderly region we know today and where to frame current conflicts historically to understand certain deeper dynamics, especially as pertains to minorities and their ambitions for statehood and peoplehood. They focus a lot on WWI and the dynamics that emerged from it and shaped the history of the Kurds, Armenians, Turks, and fleeing Ionian Greeks. These were the dynamics of population transfer and ethnonationalism that destroyed the old Middle East of the Millet System. They try to avoid the overdone Israel/Palestine dynamics which occasionally shed more heat than light. With this framing in place, they look at what tragedies took us to the current pointless and self-defeating Iran war, and where we might go from here.

To get part 2 with bonus content, and hear it before anyone else, join our Mega Orderers Club at disordershow.com/club

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow

Show Notes Links:

To get Simon’s book https://www.amazon.co.uk/Cauldron-Making-Modern-Middle-East/dp/1399634895/

For more Disorder about the history of the Middle East, try:

What is Zionism and is it still relevant today? Israel’s Independence Day with Phil Rosenberg https://open.spotify.com/episode/3ug89R0zHLumkldJX5Cmo2

And Sir Vincent Fean The Case for Palestinian Statehood: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/listen/disorder/ep74-part2-the-case-for-palestinian-statehood

And the Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day: https://disorder.supportingcast.fm/listen/disorder/ep36-part-i-former-armenian-president-sarkissian-on-armenian-genocide-remembrance-day

This episode is brought to you in partnership with the New Books Network, for more visit https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder