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In this first of two episodes for our Energy Transition Talks series, Eurelectric’s Head of Energy Policy, Climate and Sustainability Paul Wilczek joins Peter Warren to examine the intrinsic link between decarbonization and electrification, plus the consequent opportunities shaping the energy landscape. They discuss the need for grid investment and modernization, how transparent information helps bridge gaps between governments and public opinion, upfront costs versus long-term benefits of electrification and how reforming energy taxation and billing can shape the future of electrified communities.
Decarbonization and electrification: A pivotal shift
By 2040, Europe aims to have a largely decarbonized power sector, paving the way for the widespread adoption of electrification across various sectors. According to Paul, this transition not only promotes energy efficiency but also offers significant environmental benefits. As he shares, electrified systems, such as heat pumps for residential heating, can use “just two-thirds of the primary energy” required by traditional gas-based heating systems, resulting in substantial energy savings. Peter indicates that a shift is happening in North America as well, citing the current U.S. government’s incentives for heat pumps.
Despite the increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps and other electrified technologies, the overall electrification rate in Europe remains stagnant at around 22-23%. This is surprising, Paul point says, as the growing number of electrified processes and users would indicate the rate would rise.
The primary focus has been on decarbonizing the power sector, with efforts to transition to renewable and clean energy sources. However, Paul reveals, the remaining 78% of energy consumption across other sectors has been largely overlooked. Electrification presents an effective solution for further decarbonization, as the electricity grid becomes increasingly green and decarbonized.
According to projections from the European Commission, electrification is expected to account for 35% of final energy demand by 2030, rising to 50% by 2040, and potentially reaching 60-70% by 2050.
The transformation of transportation
The transport sector is undergoing a profound transformation, with the phase-out of combustion engine vehicles playing a pivotal role. This transition is driven by policy initiatives, technological advancements, and a collective commitment to reducing carbon emissions and embracing sustainable energy solutions.
Within the next 20 years, Paul estimates that very few combustion engine cars will remain on the roads. This shift is driven by the European Union's ban on combustion engines in cars, paving the way for electric and hybrid vehicles to dominate the personal transportation market. While some heavy-duty vehicles may still rely on hybrid technologies, the family vehicle of the future is expected to be predominantly electric.
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