In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones from Eurizon SLJ Capital and Neil Staines discuss the implications of Japan's LDP leadership election and the forthcoming economic data, including the quarterly Tankan survey and BoJ rate decision. The episode also explores key global economic events, focusing on German fiscal policy, European investor confidence, and inflation measures in Australia and New Zealand. The US economic outlook is highlighted amidst the ongoing government shutdown, with a focus on employment data and upcoming FOMC minutes. Entertainment and sports events for the weekend, including Premier League football and the Singapore Grand Prix, are also covered.

00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:28 Japan's Economic Outlook and Political Changes
02:15 Global Economic Data and Events
03:56 US Economic Concerns Amid Government Shutdown
05:44 Weekend Sports Highlights
06:45 Conclusion and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode, Matt Jones and Neil Staines from Eurizon SLJ Capital discuss the significant macroeconomic themes for the upcoming week, focusing on major data releases and political events in Japan, global data from China, Australia, Switzerland, the Eurozone, and significant economic activities in the US, including the payroll data. They also touch upon the potential impact of these events on global markets. The episode concludes with an overview of key sports events, including cricket, rugby, football, golf, and Formula 1, offering a comprehensive guide for professional investors for the week ahead.

00:00 Introduction and Overview
00:40 Focus on Japan: Key Data and Political Events
01:49 Global Market Highlights: Key Data Releases
03:34 US Market Focus: Payroll Week and Key Events
04:53 Weekend Sports and Events
06:07 Conclusion and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead' by Eurizon SLJ Capital, Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss key macroeconomic themes and monetary policy developments for professional investors. They analyse recent rate cuts by the Fed and other central banks, emphasising the implications for market trends and economic forecasts. The conversation also covers upcoming monetary policy decisions, expected data releases, and potential geopolitical influences, like the impact of Trump-Xi tariff discussions. The episode concludes with highlights of upcoming sporting events and personal predictions for the week.

00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:28 Central Banks' Recent Actions
02:20 Global Monetary Policy Overview
02:46 Upcoming Economic Data and Events
04:12 US Economic Focus
05:36 Weekend Sports Highlights
06:38 Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones and Neil Staines from Eurizon SLJ Capital discuss macroeconomic themes for the upcoming week, with a focus on the UK's economic data and monetary policy, global growth dynamics, and the US Federal Reserve's actions. The discussion also touches on upcoming key economic indicators from China, Europe, and Australia.

UK: Fiscal Tightening Delayed, Monetary Cuts Deferred

• A full suite of UK data lands next week: jobs, CPI, retail sales, and the Bank of England meeting.
• The budget delay means fiscal tightening won’t appear in BoE projections until February.
• December rate cuts remain possible, but a faster cutting cycle is now more likely in early 2026.

Global: Complex Growth Dynamics Across Regions

• US CPI showed retailers’ weaker ability to pass on tariff costs, hinting at softer demand.
• China data (retail sales, industrial output, investment, jobs) will shape views on the recent equity rally.
• ECB signalled it is done cutting, while Japan, France, and the UK fiscal signals add to global uncertainty.

US: Weakening Labour Market, Disinflation, and Fed Cuts

• Jobs data undershot, with a sharp downward revision to payrolls and rising jobless claims.
• PPI data highlighted weakening demand, reinforcing the disinflationary backdrop.
• The Fed is expected to cut 25bps, but focus shifts to projections, the dot plot, and Powell’s guidance.

00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:28 UK Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy
02:16 Global Growth Dynamics
03:59 US Economic Data and Fed Policy
06:58 Conclusion and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this week’s Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones is joined by Senior Portfolio Manager Neil Staines to explore the macro themes shaping markets.

Key discussion points:

• Fiscal politics in focus: France heads toward a confidence vote after parliament rejects a prudent budget, while the UK faces rising fiscal uncertainty with tax hikes looking more likely than spending cuts. Both countries felt the pressure of bond vigilantes, with curve steepening rippling into global markets.
• ECB policy backdrop: European inflation is back at target, and growth has stabilised, but divergence between the periphery and the German core complicates the outlook. With policy at neutral, the ECB is likely to hold steady, though tariff risks and council divisions remain key watchpoints.
• US growth and jobs: A pivotal payrolls report and upcoming CPI print will set the tone for the Fed. Growth remains below equilibrium but resilient, with labor market moderation offset by AI-related CapEx. The debate over cuts toward the 3% neutral rate continues.

Plus: Neil shares his weekend picks — from cricket and football internationals to the US Open Tennis Finals and the Italian Grand Prix in Monza.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this week’s episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to explore the macroeconomic themes shaping global markets.

Topics covered include:

• United Kingdom: Fiscal deterioration comes into focus as speculation builds over how the Chancellor will address the public finances in the autumn budget. The prospect of sharp growth downgrades and pressure on the Bank of England to accelerate rate cuts.
• Europe & Japan: Political uncertainty in France and Japan, and its potential market implications. Eurozone inflation, retail sales, and the latest ECB commentary.
• United States: A pivotal week with ISM surveys and, most importantly, the labour market. JOLTS, ADP, and non-farm payrolls will dominate the macro narrative, with unemployment at critical levels for both markets and the Fed.
• Emerging Markets: Inflation updates across multiple EM economies and a potential policy cut from Poland.
• Weekend Outlook: A packed sporting calendar from Premier League football and the Women’s Rugby World Cup to Formula 1’s Dutch Grand Prix.

Why it matters:
This week’s data releases — particularly US payrolls — carry significant weight for monetary policy expectations and global market sentiment. With fiscal headwinds mounting in the UK and political risks rising in Europe and Japan, investors face a complex backdrop where growth, inflation, and policy paths remain tightly interlinked.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this week’s episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to explore the shifting global policy landscape following another complex week for markets.

We look ahead to Jackson Hole, where central bankers gather against a backdrop of conflicting signals: slowing labour markets, tariff-driven inflation, and divergent regional challenges. While Powell’s Friday speech is the headline, Neil highlights why Bailey, Lagarde, and Ueda may ultimately carry the more interesting messages for markets this time.

On the data front, a relatively quiet week still brings important releases, from the RBA minutes to German labour market indicators, Japanese retail sales, and the US PCE. Emerging market watchers will also note Polish unemployment, Mexican trade, and Czech and Indian GDP.

Zooming out, the UK’s fiscal deterioration and budget outlook remain a central theme, while in the US, the unemployment rate, hovering near the 4.3–4.5% policy-sensitive threshold, anchors the debate. With signs of slowing wage growth and waning sectoral catch-up, labour market demand is increasingly under scrutiny.

Neil also shares his weekend sporting highlights and closes with what he’s going long and short this bank holiday weekend.

Key Topics This Week:

• Global central bank dynamics: Powell, Bailey, Lagarde, and Ueda
• Data highlights: RBA minutes, German labour market, US PCE, and EM releases
• Macro focal points: UK fiscal tightening and US unemployment as the key policy triggers
• Weekend sport and Neil’s long & short calls

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.

In this episode of 'The Long and Short of the Week Ahead,' Matt Jones from Eurizon SLJ Capital engages with Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager, to discuss recent macroeconomic data and its implications for global markets. They explore disappointing economic metrics from China and Germany, rate cuts from the RBA and the Bank of Thailand, and a dovish stance from the Norges Bank. They also analyse forthcoming trade data from the Eurozone and Japan, the impact of US tariffs, and the potential repercussions for growth and inflation on a global scale. The conversation includes insights into the UK’s GDP and employment figures, along with the anticipation of fiscal tightening. Additionally, they touch upon US inflation data and its potential effect on the Federal Reserve's future actions. The episode concludes with a brief discussion on upcoming sports events, showcasing a well-rounded end to the week’s analysis.

00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:28 Global Economic Overview
02:09 UK Economic Insights
03:37 US Economic Data and Projections
05:19 Weekend Sports Highlights
06:15 Conclusion and Closing Remarks

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.