Are your financial decisions shaped by emotions or grounded in logic?

The difference could have a bigger impact on your financial future than you think.

This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, host an insightful conversation recorded live at the Excel Conference, featuring leading financial minds:

Ed Clissold, CFA, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research; Brian Portnoy, CFA, Founder of Shaping Wealth; and Adam Holt, CFP®, ChFC®, CEO & Founder of Asset-Map Holdings.

Together, they examine the behavioral and emotional forces that drive both individual investment decisions and broader market trends. From managing emotional reactions in volatile markets to harnessing the power of storytelling in financial advice, they reveal how financial advisors can elevate their approach.

The discussion also explores the complexities of guiding families through financial planning, the critical importance of financial literacy for future generations, and a cautiously optimistic look at today’s economic indicators.

Key Highlights:

• Behavioral Finance & Emotional Intelligence: Brian Portnoy highlights the central role of emotions in decision-making. He urges advisors to act as behavioral coaches, helping clients manage their emotional responses to market fluctuations and stay focused on long-term goals.
• Market Sentiment & Political Reactions: Ed Clissold explains how market tops and bottoms are often driven by emotional extremes like optimism and pessimism. He also touches on how elections can create short-term volatility, but markets typically react independently of political outcomes. Ed reminds advisors to rely on data-driven insights rather than emotional biases when advising clients.
• Holistic Financial Planning & Storytelling: Adam Holt and Brian Portnoy emphasize the importance of taking a comprehensive approach to financial planning, addressing risks like under-insurance and longevity. Brian adds that storytelling is a powerful tool for advisors, helping clients connect with their financial goals on a deeper level.
• Market Outlook & Economic Indicators: Ed provides a cautiously optimistic market outlook, highlighting strong consumer spending and investment. While sentiment indicators, like the yield curve, suggest some potential slowdowns, Ed believes a soft landing is more likely than a severe recession.
• Financial Literacy & Family Dynamics: The panel underscores the importance of improving financial literacy, particularly for younger generations, to prepare them for long-term financial health. Brian also notes the complexities of advising families, emphasizing that advisors must adapt their communication styles to effectively engage all family members in the planning process.

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ed Clissold:

• LinkedIn: Ed Clissold, CFA

Connect with Brian Portnoy:

• LinkedIn: Brian Portnoy, CFA

Connect with Adam Holt:

• LinkedIn: H. Adam Holt, CFP®, ChFC®

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Is the Fed’s latest rate cut a sign of turbulent times ahead or a smart move to sustain growth?

In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, examine the Federal Reserve’s significant decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (or half a percentage point) — the first reduction since March 2020. This pivotal move carries major implications for investors, the economy, and overall market sentiment.

Ryan and Sonu explore the reasoning behind the Fed’s policy shift and explain what it means for those managing portfolios in today’s financial landscape.

Are we looking at a new phase of economic momentum, or are there hidden risks on the horizon?

The hosts offer a detailed analysis, along with practical advice for financial advisors and investors adjusting their strategies in response to this new economic reality.

Key Highlights:

• Federal Reserve's Rate Cut: The Fed’s first interest rate reduction in over three years is framed as a strategic risk management tool designed to stabilize employment and promote sustained growth rather than a reaction to looming recession fears
• Resilient Economic Data: Despite the rate cut, key sectors like industrial production and retail sales continue to show strength. Robust growth in high-tech industries and online shopping underscores the overall resilience of the economy
• Consumer Debt and Health: While consumer debt has hit record highs, it remains manageable. Low delinquency rates and minimal bankruptcy filings suggest that household finances remain relatively stable
• Stock Market Gains: Recent stock market gains are driven by strong corporate profit growth rather than inflated valuations. With healthy corporate balance sheets and expanding profit margins, the outlook for continued market growth remains positive
• Housing Market Rebound: Although mortgage rates remain high, improvements in housing permits and starts suggest that the Fed’s rate cuts are beginning to stimulate activity in the housing sector, a key driver of economic growth
• Bond Market Reactions: Long-term treasury yields have risen despite the rate cut — a positive signal indicating confidence in the economy’s future growth rather than fears of a potential recession
• Future Market Outlook: Historical data shows that markets often perform well after major Fed rate cuts, particularly when supported by strong economic momentum, as is currently the case
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Staying ahead of market volatility requires more than just luck — it demands sharp technical insights and smart risk management.

This week on Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group are joined by Frank Cappelleri, CFA, CMT, Founder, and President at CappThesis. Together, they explore essential technical patterns and market signals that can help traders and financial advisors navigate volatility and optimize their strategies.

Is the bull market still on track for higher gains, or should traders prepare for turbulence?

Frank explores key topics, from the S&P 500's bullish target to the influence of inflation on investor sentiment. So, tune in as he offers actionable insights on using technical analysis for risk management and effective portfolio management.

Key Highlights:

• Bull Market Forecast: Frank targets 6,100 for the S&P 500 and explains what this milestone means for long-term investors
• Seasonal Trends: Discover why September is typically a volatile month and how to adjust your trading strategies accordingly
• Inflation’s Role: Get a detailed breakdown of recent CPI data, especially the impact of rising shelter costs on inflation, and how these figures affect market sentiment
• Defensive Sectors Outperforming: Learn why utilities and other defensive sectors are outpacing broader market performance — and what it signals for the future
• Gold vs. Oil: Examine the contrasting performance of gold as a safe haven versus oil’s fluctuations, especially in light of China’s economic challenges
• Networking and Community: Frank shares insights from the Excel conference on the value of idea-sharing and staying sharp in the investment community
• And much more!

Takeaway: To navigate today's markets, understanding key technical signals and being adaptable in risk management strategies is more important than ever.

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Frank Cappelleri:

• LinkedIn: Frank Cappelleri, CFA, CMT
• Website: CappThesis

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Frank Cappelleri is the founder of CappThesis, with over two decades of experience in the finance industry. He worked for major brokerage firms like Instinet and Smith Barney, gaining extensive expertise as an equity sales trader, desk strategist, and research sales specialist. His deep understanding of short-term market movements was shaped by early exposure to technical analysis and insights from experienced market technicians. Frank regularly appears on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and other financial networks, and his work has been featured in major publications like The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. He holds both CFA and CMT designations.

Tune in for our centennial celebration!

In this special milestone episode, we’re celebrating the 100th episode of Facts vs Feelings with a live audience and special guest Tom Lee, Managing Partner and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. Together with hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, Tom discusses market outlooks, evolving investment strategies, and key economic trends shaping the future.

What’s next for the S&P 500? How do historical patterns and Fed actions impact today's market? And why should financial advisors pay close attention to demographic trends and Bitcoin? Tom Lee offers his bold predictions, including the path to S&P 15,000 and the evolving role of Bitcoin in investment portfolios.

They discuss:

• Tom’s bold prediction: S&P 500 reaching 15,000 by 2030
• The impact of demographic trends on long-term market cycles
• Navigating short-term volatility, particularly in September and October
• Insights into Bitcoin’s potential and its role in a diversified portfolio
• The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and their influence on market outlook
• Strategies for small-cap stocks in a shifting economy
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Tom Lee:

• X: Tom Lee
• Website: Fundstrat

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Thomas Lee is a Managing Partner and the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. He is an accomplished Wall Street strategist with over 25 years of experience in equity research, and has been top-ranked by Institutional Investor every year since 1998.

Prior to co-founding Fundstrat, he served as J.P. Morgan’s Chief Equity Strategist from 2007 to 2014, and previously as Managing Director at Salomon Smith Barney. His areas of expertise include Market Strategy, Small/Mid-Cap Strategy and Telecom Services.

Mr. Lee received his BSE from the Wharton School at University of Pennsylvania with concentrations in Finance and Accounting. He is a CFA charterholder and is an active member of NYSSA and the NY Economic Club.

Understanding today’s economy requires a keen eye on labor markets, Federal Reserve policies, and fiscal strategies.

How do these factors interplay to shape the financial landscape? What practical advice can help investors stay grounded amid market noise?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Together they discuss the dynamic nature of the global economy. You'll learn about the practical applications of charts and data in economic analysis, the impact of monetary policy on recession fears, and the relationship between inflation and unemployment. Dr. Kelly also offers invaluable insights into the recent upward trends in productivity and the critical outlook for fiscal policy as we approach 2025.

They discuss:

• The role of charts and data in economic storytelling
• The evolving state of the labor market and productivity
• Implications of Jay Powell's Jackson Hole comments
• Key fiscal policy changes and their potential impacts
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Dr. David Kelly:

• LinkedIn: David Kelly
• J.P Morgan Asset Management

Interested in hearing more from Dr. David Kelly? Subscribe to his shows wherever you listen to podcasts.

• Notes on the Week Ahead - Published every Monday
• Insights Now and Alternative Realities - Episodes available every Thursday

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Dr. David Kelly is the Chief Global Strategist and Head of the Global Market Insights Strategy Team for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. With over 20 years of experience, David provides valuable insight and perspective on the economy and markets to the institutional investor and financial advisor global communities.

David’s research focuses on investment implications of an evolving economic environment. He has written extensively on all aspects of the U.S. economy and his proprietary U.S. economic forecasting model helps shape his views on both the economic landscape and prospective asset class returns. He currently sits on JP Morgan Fund’s operating committee.

Throughout his career, David has developed a unique ability to explain complex economic and market issues in a language that financial professionals can use to communicate to their clients. He is a keynote speaker at many national investment conferences and a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and other financial media outlets.

Prior to joining J.P. Morgan Asset Management, David served as Economic Advisor to Putnam Investments. He has also served as a senior strategist/economist at SPP Investment Management, Primark Decision Economics, Lehman Brothers and DRI/McGraw-Hill.

David is a CFA® charterholder. He also has a Ph.D and M.A. in Economics from Michigan State University and a B.A. in Economics from University College Dublin in the Republic of Ireland.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming the financial industry, offering both exciting opportunities and significant challenges.

How is AI being integrated specifically into financial services? What are the potential risks and rewards of this technology?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Davi Fava, Chief Strategy Officer at Carson Group, for an in-depth conversation on artificial intelligence and its revolutionary impact on finance. Dani takes us through the intricate world of AI, explaining its incredible potential, addressing common fears, and highlighting how Carson Group is integrating this technology to better serve their clients.

Additionally to our conversation with Dani, Ryan and Sonu discuss the recent performance of the S&P 500, the impact of economic data on market trends, and the outlook for future market movements. They also touch on the role of small businesses and the Federal Reserve’s actions in shaping the economy.

Key topics discussed:

• New ways AI is transforming industries, especially finance
• Addressing fears and ethical considerations surrounding AI
• Practical applications of AI in daily financial operations and beyond
• The recent performance of the S&P 500, including the longest win streak in 20 years
• The impact of economic data, such as unemployment claims, on market trends
• The Federal Reserve’s actions and potential rate cuts
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Davi Fava:

• LinkedIn: Davi Fava

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Dani Fava serves the pivotal role of Chief Strategy Officer at Carson Group, wielding over two decades of experience in wealth management to drive our strategic direction. Charged with enhancing the client experience through differentiated products and services, Dani’s leadership is instrumental in shaping innovative growth strategies and advancing the industry on financial advice and the use of AI.

Before joining Carson Group, Dani held influential positions at Envestnet and TD Ameritrade, where she spearheaded initiatives such as digital onboarding, strategic partnerships, and AI integration. Dani’s contributions include the development of advisor technologies like iRebal and the Model Market Center, reflecting her commitment to empowering advisors with cutting-edge tools and insights. Her impact and forward-thinking vision earned her a spot on FinTech Magazine’s Top 100 Women in FinTech (2021), InvestmentNews’ Women to Watch (2020), and ThinkAdvisor’s 2020 IA25, underscoring her status as a trailblazer in wealth management innovation.

In addition to her professional achievements, Dani is recognized for her thought leadership in the industry, often speaking at conferences and contributing to discussions on the future of financial technology. Dani also serves on the board of Language & Culture Worldwide (LCW), a culture consulting company. This work is an extension of her commitment to see more inclusion in the wealth management industry.

The month of August can often bring unexpected market volatility, and in this release we touch on the reasons behind it and how investors can stay prepared.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the recurring phenomenon of August market volatility, discussing historical events that have shaken the markets during this seemingly unpredictable month.

Joined by insights from various professionals, they analyze the reasons behind these patterns and offer valuable perspectives on how investors can navigate the choppy waters of late summer trading.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• Historical market disruptions in August and their catalysts
• The psychology of market participants during low-volume periods
• The recent volatility triggered by the Bank of Japan's rate hike
• The importance of having a diversified investment strategy to weather unexpected market shifts
• Key economic data, such as the unemployment rate and inflation expectations, and their impact on market outlook
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

How do you know when to stay the course or press the panic button during market volatility?

In this special episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Barry Gilbert, CFA®, Ph.D. Vice President, Asset Allocation Strategist at Carson Group, and Grant Engelbart CFA®, CAIA®, Vice President, Investment Strategist at Carson Group, for a discussion of this period of heightened market turmoil.

The team dives into the recent volatility triggered by the Bank of Japan's actions, the impact of weak job data on the Fed's interest rate decisions, and the ripple effects on both global and domestic markets.

They discuss:

• The Bank of Japan's unexpected moves and their impact on global markets
• Analysis of recent job data and what it means for future Fed rate cuts
• How current earnings reports reflect broader market conditions
• Diversification strategies to manage risk
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Barry Gilbert:

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert

Connect with Grant Engelbart:

• LinkedIn: Grant Engelbart

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Barry Gilbert:

Barry Gilbert is a Vice President, Asset Allocation Strategist. As the VP, Asset Allocation Strategist, Barry Gilbert combines a background in thought leadership with a pragmatic and disciplined approach to portfolio management.

Barry holds a PhD in philosophy from Boston University, an MA from the Pennsylvania State University, and a BA from Haverford College. A former educator, he taught finance and economics in the MSF and MBA programs at Northeastern University’s D’Amore-McKim School of Business. Prior to his career in asset management, Barry taught philosophy, the history of ideas, and writing and rhetoric at Harvard University, Trinity College and Boston University, and has served as a visiting research fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna, an international think tank in politics and economics.

About Grant Engelbart:

Grant Engelbart serves as Vice President, Investment Strategist for Carson Group. In this role, Grant is part of the team responsible for the management of the Carson Investment platform, In-house Carson model portfolios, and contribution to the overall asset allocation viewpoints of the investment team.

Grant received his Bachelor of Science in finance from the University of Nebraska at Lincoln. He is a CFA® Charter holder, holds the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) designation, and Series 65 registration. He is a member of the CFA® Society of Nebraska and the CAIA Chicago chapter. He has contributed to numerous publications and is an active contributor to commentary related to the ETF industry.