As a kid of 80s and 90s, a lot of the pop culture was around the post-apocalyptic scenarios following a nuclear exchange. I always thought a nuclear winter is a consequence of atomic bombs falling down, but now as a fire researcher I've learnt it is mostly about fires, after all. Today I sit down with Dr Stephen Welch (University of Edinburgh) to trace the fire-engineering-heavy pathway from mass urban ignitions to firestorms, through soot production and its injection into the stratosphere, up to global climate impacts. The uncomfortable twist is that the energy release from the fires can dominate the scenario, and the climate outcome depends on whether a fraction of that smoke gets high enough and stays there long enough to matter.

We dig into what makes a firestorm different from a big fire: the burned-area thresholds, the requirement for many structures burning at once, and the extreme winds a firestorm can generate on its own. Then we connect urban firestorms to what we’ve learned from megafires and satellite observations, including measured, non-zero global cooling effects, tracing reference datapoints that allow us to approximate the scale needed for a considerable climate impacts. That modern data from wildfires or volcanic eruptions becomes a rare validation anchor for a problem that historically relied on older assumptions and is inherently limited in terms of potential validation.

From there, we go straight into the messy details fire engineers care about: fuel load density, modern plastics, under-ventilated compartment fires, glazing failure, and why soot yields taken from small, well-ventilated tests can be misleading when soot mass is the whole point. All of those, but considering large city fire at once. We also talk modeling options, from CFD to coupled atmosphere simulations, and why “consistent engineering crudeness” is sometimes the only honest starting point. In fact, we dive pretty deep into soot formation and modelling, as the classic "yield" approach we use for everyday fire engineering breaks down at scale of fires discussed here. At the same time, the exact amount of carbon injected into stratosphere is the number deciding of the final impact, therefore it requires a better justification.

I am sure you will enjoy this conversation, as it ties multiple important aspects of fire engineering, tied all into a challenging and interesting research question. How do fires lead to a nuclear winter?

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The Fire Science Show is produced by the Fire Science Media in collaboration with OFR Consultants. Thank you to the podcast sponsor for their continuous support towards our mission.

A wind-driven ember shower is a key wildfire exposures a building can face, but we have not yet fully understood or accounted for them in making our communities wildfire resilient. Today we sit down with Samuel L. Manzello of Tohoku University and Reax Engineering to unpack how in the last 20 years the firebrand science went from not being able to characterize the features of them well to being able to procur controlled experiments and standardized generators that can actually shape building codes and product design.

We dig into what firebrands really are, why vegetation embers and structure-generated embers behave differently, and why lab tests with single particles often fail to explain the ignitions seen after major WUI disasters. From there, we follow the chain reaction that led to the Dragon firebrand generator: the need for wind, the lack of suitable facilities, and the breakthrough of creating a continuously feedable device that can produce repeatable firebrand showers. Samuel explains how airflow settings can shift firebrands from glowing to flaming, and why that control is essential for meaningful wildfire exposure testing.

The second half moves into standardization and real-world impact. Samuel breaks down ISO TC 92 and the work of the IAFSS LOFBE group on large outdoor fires in the built environment, including why the "Baby Dragon" became an ISO methodology and what it unlocks next: better roof tests, vent penetration tests, facade and opening vulnerabilities, and more consistent ways to compare hazards across regions and vegetation types. If you care about wildfire resilience, WUI fire safety, ember intrusion, and the future of practical standards, this conversation maps the path forward.

As promised, here are some links:

• The world is burning: What exactly are firebrands and why should anyone care?
• Progress in creating international standards
• Experimentally producing various firebrands
• NIST - Dragon firebrand generator (2014)
• Samuel's classic paper from 2006 - on ignition of mulch with firebrands

But there is much, much more in the literature on the firebrands! I recommend going to Scopus or Google Scholar and looking for Samuel's record there: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4oAvxXMAAAAJ&hl=pl&oi=ao

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The Fire Science Show is produced by the Fire Science Media in collaboration with OFR Consultants. Thank you to the podcast sponsor for their continuous support towards our mission.

Wildland-Urban Interface fires are a class of fires that deserves own models, own studies and a lot of research focus. This is what I discuss today with prof. Arnaud Trouvé from the University of Maryland, shortly before he has given his plenary talk at the recent Combustion Symposium in Kyoto. In this interview, Arnaud explains what makes wildland urban interface (WUI) fires and urban conflagrations so hard to predict, also with a focus on the combustion phenomena.

Arnaud is interested in how the fires spread from the wildlife into the urban areas, and how to model this spread. The state of the art models for fire spread are lacking in here, due to how they perceive a fire front as a "line", whereas in cities we are looking at collection of compartment-household fires that may last for hours, and create a burning area kilometre wide. Therefore, we need new modelling approaches, and we need them at three scales - the scale of vulnerabilities of a parcel, a parcel-to-parcel setups and whole community scales.

To improve the state of the art, he breaks the problem into the scales that matter: indoor fire dynamics (where CFD can estimate structure burning), parcel-level exposure (where fire penetration is the missing link), and community-scale fire spread (where reduced order models dominate because fuel and building maps are often coarse). We dig into the practical modeling mechanics behind WUI simulators: 2D spread on gridded maps, simplified radiation and flame shape models, probabilistic firebrand transport, and the limits of one-way coupling where wind is prescribed but not influenced by the fire.

We also discuss an important bottleneck: the data. Satellite observations often arrive with poor temporal resolution, and controlled full-scale experiments are rare, which makes validation and scenario selection painfully uncertain. We also discuss why windows and near-structure fuels can be a universal pathway for loss, and why the field needs stronger shared infrastructure and collaboration to move faster.

Congratulations on your plenary talk and thank you Arnaud for representing the fire community at the Combustion Symposium. Once Arnaud's plenary paper is published, I will update the show notes with a link!

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The Fire Science Show is produced by the Fire Science Media in collaboration with OFR Consultants. Thank you to the podcast sponsor for their continuous support towards our mission.