Episodes

  • Peter Boockvar on an Overheated Stock Market, China’s Green Shoots, and the Private Credit Bezzle

    Peter Boockvar on an Overheated Stock Market, China’s Green Shoots, and the Private Credit Bezzle
    Jul 15 2024
    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Peter Boockvar on Twitter https://twitter.com/pboockvar Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) Peter's Economic Worries: That Lower-End Consumers Are Already In A Recession (12:26) VanEck Ad (13:06) Interview Continues (21:12) Is The AI Narrative That's Fueling The Stock Market Rally Real? (48:07) Japan (54:36) China (01:09:19) 2024 U.S. Presidential Election (01:11:42) Is The Boom In Private Credit & Private Equity Going To End Badly? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 26 mins
  • Airline Revenues Are Soaring. Their Profits Are Not | Planes And Trains Expert Jay Shabat on Depressed Railroad Volumes And Global Air Traffic

    Airline Revenues Are Soaring. Their Profits Are Not | Planes And Trains Expert Jay Shabat on Depressed Railroad Volumes And Global Air Traffic
    Jul 11 2024
    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Skift Airline Weekly https://airlineweekly.skift.com/ Jay Shabat’s Railroad Weekly https://railroadweekly.substack.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:10) Railroads (19:50) VanEck Ad (20:30) Airlines __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 30 mins
  • Why The Chinese Real Estate Downturn Won’t Sink The Chinese Economy | Ben Harburg

    Why The Chinese Real Estate Downturn Won’t Sink The Chinese Economy | Ben Harburg
    Jul 8 2024
    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:18) Has The Bearish Narrative On China's Collapse Gone Too Far? (05:50) Collapse Of Evergrande Was NOT A "Lehman Moment," Argues Harburg (10:21) Current State of Chinese Real Estate Market (15:56) Is Economic Stimulus From The Chinese Government On Its Way? (19:28) Are Chinese Policymakers Worried About Deflation? (21:16) Western Goods Are Being "Slaughtered" By Chinese Consumption of Domestically-Produced Goods (24:35) VanEck Ad (25:29) Spending Is "Definitely Weak" As "People Are Losing Their Jobs" (26:42) Not In DNA of Chinese Government To Enact a "Major Stimulus Package" (28:59) India Is A "Mirage" Where Corruption Is Actually Higher Than In China, Argues Harburg (36:46) Delisting of DiDi Was "Justified" But The Chinese Government Often Does Not Provide Sufficient Detail On Rationale Behind Policies (41:01) The Chinese Labor Market (43:09) Permissionless Ad (44:15) The Chinese Stock Market (49:28) Chinese Electric Vehicles (54:19) Tariffs Against China: Why Chinese Leaders Would Prefer Trump Over Biden (01:00:49) Does Beijing Look Fondly Upon Bank Credit Being Directed Away From Real Estate And Into Consumer Lending? (01:06:21) Private Markets In China Are "Very Challenged" (01:12:17) China's Central Bank (The People's Bank of China) (01:14:11) Chinese Yuan __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 24 mins
  • BCG Chief Economist: Artificial Intelligence Will Displace Labor | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak on Economic False Alarms and Solar Flare Black Swans

    BCG Chief Economist: Artificial Intelligence Will Displace Labor | Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak on Economic False Alarms and Solar Flare Black Swans
    Jul 2 2024
    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:46) Economic False Alarms Over Past 5 Years (05:44) The False Recession Signal of 2022 (19:36) VanEck Ad (20:17) What Is The Cause Of So Much Economic Pessimism? (26:26) Are Sovereign Debt Levels A Threat To Economy? (39:56) Permissionless III Ad (40:54) AI And Labor Productivity (54:04) How To Prepare For Actual Material Economic Threats (01:00:52) What Are The False Signals Of 2024? (01:06:25) Geopolitical Risks (01:13:10) U.S. / China Tensions (01:17:22) Black Swan: Solar Flare __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 19 mins
  • “Accident Brewing” | Neil Dutta on Rising Slowdown Risks And Why He Thinks The Fed Will Cut Sooner Rather Than Later

    “Accident Brewing” | Neil Dutta on Rising Slowdown Risks And Why He Thinks The Fed Will Cut Sooner Rather Than Later
    Jun 27 2024
    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Renaissance Macro on Twitter https://x.com/RenMacLLC?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow RenMac website: https://t.co/VJIDWiWMkc Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:56) Is There An "Economic Accident" Brewing? (10:26) Why Neil Thinks The Fed Should Cut Before The Election (21:54) VanEck Ad (22:36) Odds Of A Recession (29:33) Is The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Data From Establishment Survey Overstating How Rosy U.S. Job Market Is? (48:25) Dutta Prefers Bonds Over Stocks (58:42) The Fiscal Deficit In 2025 And Beyond __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 1 min
  • Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced

    Oil & Crypto Trader Jonah van Bourg: Altcoins Going to Zero, Bitcoin Bull Move Is Just Getting Started, and Oil Vol Is Overpriced
    Jun 25 2024
    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Follow Jonah van Bourg on Twitter https://x.com/jvb_xyz Follow 1000x podcast on Twitter https://x.com/1000xPod Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Jonah's Background At Lehman, Goldman, Vitol, and Cumberland (04:18) Jonah on Crypto: "I'm So Bullish I Can't See Straight" (06:18) Why Jonah Thinks Bitcoin Will Stay In A Range ("Proper Chop") Before Shooting Higher (09:11) Jonah: Bitcoin Is Better At Conducting Large Scale Commodity Transactions Than Most Non-Reserve Fiat Currencies (22:01) VanEck Ad (28:20) Has Saudi Arabia Moved Off The Petrodollar? (30:09) Is Mt. Gox Unlock of Bitcoin A Big Deal? (34:25) Jonah on The Real Reason Crypto Is Going Down: "Most Altcoins Are Worthless": You "Shitcoin of Choice" Is Probably Dead (45:19) The Rise of Stablecoins (48:26) The "AI" Crypto Coins (50:40) Jonah on Oil: There's A Lot Of Spare Capacity, Hard To See A Big Move Higher (58:09) The Best Trade of 2024 In Oil Has Been Selling Options (01:06:34) Why Jonah Is Bullish Distillates (01:10:15) Jonah on Oil Refineries (01:13:34) Natural Gas (01:20:25) Uranium and Gold (01:22:58) Fiat Debasement and Bitcoin __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 29 mins
  • The Next Big Thing In Capital Markets | David Goone

    The Next Big Thing In Capital Markets | David Goone
    Jun 24 2024
    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. -- This week, David Goone CEO of tZERO joins the show for a discussion on the next big trend he is seeing within capital markets. We discuss David's time at the ICE exchange, acquisition as a growth strategy, the development of online trading, how to unlock liquidity for alternative assets & more. Enjoy! -- Follow tZERO on Twitter https://x.com/tZERO Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (08:20) The Shift From LIBOR To SOFR (16:05) VanEck Ad (16:45) Acquisition As A Growth Strategy (22:16) The Growth Of Electronic Trading (24:57) What Is tZERO? (36:43) What Is A Security? (38:47) Providing Liquidity For Venture Capital & Private Equity (48:53) Aspen Hotel Resort Offering (56:20) Building A Brand & Reputation As An Alternative Exchange -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 9 mins
  • Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins

    Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins
    Jun 20 2024
    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. Midas’ website: https://midas.app/ Follow Midas on Twitter https://x.com/midasrwa Fabrice Grinda’s website: https://fabricegrinda.com/ Fabrice Grinda on Twitter https://x.com/fabricegrinda Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:54) How Fabrice Grinda Thinks About Macro (05:19) Fabrice's Early Journey In VC During The Venture Capital Bust of 2000 (07:06) The VC Boom of 2020 & 2021 (11:24) Why Raising Too Much Money At Too High A Valuation Can Be A Big Problem (For Real) (16:38) Layoffs In Tech While The Overall U.S. Job Market Has Been Strong In 2023 & 2024: How To Square This? (19:18) The Biggest Risk Now Is Not Macroeconomic In Nature: It Is Geopolitical (21:19) VanEck Ad (21:59) Palantir and Anduril (26:48) Why An Increasing Percentage of Grinda's Investments Are Now In The U.S. (30:42) VC Tourists Who Got Smoked In 2022 (33:15) Have VC Valuations Bottomed? A Tale of Two Cities (AI & Non-AI) (36:02) Fabrice's Journey Into Crypto (39:29) Midas: Yield-Bearing Stablecoin That Can Actually Do Stuff On-Chain (44:13) The Crypto Basis Trade & mBasis (47:50) Tether and Circle (49:41) Midas' Decision To Be Regulatory Compliant In Europe (And Not The U.S.) (51:44) The U.S. Regulatory Crackdown on Crypto Has Been Hardcore (53:17) Bankruptcy Remoteness In Crypto Is Rare (57:27) Are Onchain Treasury Bills Still Zero Coupon? (58:32) Fabrice's Longer-Term Vision For Midas (59:49) Fabrice's Views On Payment Rails Such as MasterCard, Visa, etc. (01:04:27) FedNow (01:07:29) How Did The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Impact The Venture Capital (VC) Ecosystem? (01:14:35) Additional Thoughts On Macro and Recession Risk (01:17:45) State of AI VC Market In 2024 (01:24:50) Self-Driving Tech (01:27:12) Who Will Be The Biggest Long-Term Winners From AI? __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 30 mins