Good Authority By cover art

Good Authority

By: Good Authority
Listen for free

  • Summary

  • Good Authority’s mission is to bring insights from political science to a broader audience. Here, political scientists draw on their expertise to provide in-depth analysis, illuminate the news, and inform the political conversation.
    This work is licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
    Show more Show less
activate_primeday_promo_in_buybox_DT
Episodes
  • Why it’s gotten harder to predict the outcome of the 2024 debates

    Why it’s gotten harder to predict the outcome of the 2024 debates
    Jun 27 2024
    The first presidential debate takes place tonight. As you probably know by now, Biden and Trump agreed to this June 27 debate and a second one on September 10. They are not going to do the usual three debates overseen by the Commission on Presidential Debates in late September and early October. Of course, the big question is: In a year of remarkably stable polling, could this debate actually change the state of the race? This is a more complicated question to answer than usual – and we can blame this new debate schedule. What the previous research says In August 2012, I wrote a piece summarizing the political science literature on the presidential debates from 1960-2008. Here’s a one-sentence summary: Debates have moved the polls but they have rarely decided the election. There are two big reasons why. First, the debates took place later in the election season and there weren’t many undecided voters at that point. Second, it has proven tough to “run the table” and win all the debates so convincingly that the winner received a durable benefit. Typically, the candidates have fought to a draw. By contrast, the party conventions have had larger effects, on average. They have typically occurred earlier than the debates. And because the conventions no longer experience much drama about who’ll be the nominee, they have become infomercials for that candidate. By design, no debate tends to be that one-sided. Not much about the 2012 debates changed those conclusions, I argued after that election. Mitt Romney did gain a few points after the first debate, but Barack Obama did better in the last two and the end result was basically a wash. There weren’t big debate effects in 2016 or 2020 either, or so we found in our books on those elections. What’s unusual in 2024 But this year’s schedule creates the potential for something different. For one, the first debate will take place quite early. There should be more undecided voters than there will be in October. And we know that Joe Biden has work to do rallying Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters. If Biden “wins” the debate – I use scare quotes because these judgments are always subjective – it could boost his standing within the party even before the Democratic convention. Then there is the Republican convention from July 15-18 and the Democratic convention from August 19-22. This will allow us to observe the potential impact of each. In some years, like 2020, the party conventions are so close together that you can barely see any impact of the first before the second one kicks in. But note also that party conventions have had smaller effects in recent elections. The second debate on September 10 will also take place earlier than the first debate typically has. So, once again, there could be potential for the polls to move. Moreover, convention bumps sometimes decay and either candidate could benefit from a highly publicized victory in the September debate. But then… there will be almost 2 months until Election Day. That’s plenty of time for any impact of the final debate to disappear, or another late-breaking event to override the debate’s impact. It’s also worth noting that Biden has already reserved more time for televised advertising in the fall than Trump has. If those ads have an effect – and there is evidence that advertising can have a small effect – then that could be the ultimate deciding factor in a very close election, not a debate that occurred weeks or months earlier. In sum, for a long time the presidential campaign calendar followed a pattern: summer party conventions followed by fall debates. That’s what the political science research has studied. In 2024, we’ll get to study something different – with less predictable consequences. For further discussion on the 2024 debates, listen to my conversation with Good Authority Editor Erik Voeten.
    Show more Show less
    20 mins
  • Don’t call it a “coup epidemic” in Africa

    Don’t call it a “coup epidemic” in Africa
    Apr 28 2024

    In the last few years, militaries have carried out coups in numerous African countries, including Gabon, Niger, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Guinea, Chad and Mali. Does this signify the beginning of a much broader continent wide “coup epidemic?” Or are these coups mostly affecting especially weak states that face specific challenges? Where is democratic resilience strong and where is there a risk of continued democratic backsliding?

    A Good Chat on Africa

    Good Authority’s Africa experts Ken Opalo and our editor-in-chief Kim Yi Dionne joined me to discuss these issues. Ken is an associate professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service and the author of the substack An Africanist Perspective. Kim is an associate professor at UC Riverside and the co-host of the podcast Ufahamu Africa.

    Both Ken and Kim contributed to a recent issue of the Journal of Democracy on Africa. Ken’s essay highlights that Africa’s coups were concentrated in countries with weak state capacity and that were facing security threats and/or political dysfunction. Therefore, he believes these coups are unlikely to spread across the continent. Kim’s essay explores a democratic success story – Malawi – highlighting the importance of domestic checks and balances for democratic resilience.

    Our conversation delves deeper into the themes and content of these essays. We discussed the role of security threats, economic distress, African regional organizations, and outside assistance from the United States and China. We also talked about the upcoming South African elections and the rise of economic populism on the continent.
    Show more Show less
    37 mins
  • What polls can and cannot tell us about the 2024 elections

    What polls can and cannot tell us about the 2024 elections
    Mar 28 2024

    John Sides and Michael Tesler recently published a piece on Good Authority asking how much trouble Joe Biden is really in for the 2024 election? Our podcast episode kicks off with that big question, then delves deeper into what opinion polls in March can tell us about the November elections. We talk about how much it matters that both candidates are pretty well known, whether the encouraging news on the economy can help Biden, and whether Democrats’ strong performance in the 2022 and 2023 elections gives the party some hope.

    We also explore some currents underlying recent trends in public opinion. Is there really a looming racial realignment in American politics? Why don’t consumer sentiment and presidential approval ratings go hand in hand anymore? Is there any change in political independents? What types of issues might favor Democrats and Republicans? And what are good campaign strategies for both sides?

    John has written books about the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections. Michael was a co-author on the 2016 book and has also written extensively about elections at 538, the Monkey Cage and elsewhere. Listen for a deep dive on what to expect over the next few months.

    Hear our conversation using the audio player below. You can also subscribe to our podcast on Apple Podcasts.
    Show more Show less
    35 mins
Political Science Social Sciences Science
Show more Show less

What listeners say about Good Authority

Average customer ratings

Reviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.

Audible.com reviews

Amazon reviews
No Reviews are Available