In this episode, our experts opine on the economy, considering three key indicators making a splash this week: unemployment claims are down, but so was the first quarter estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while inflation stayed stickier than hoped for in May. Meanwhile, bond yields moved higher, and the stock market is having a heyday, despite the dollar hitting a three-year low. We will be off next week for the July 4th holiday, and look forward to bringing you fresh insights the following week.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

02:16 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 21 came in at 236,000 – 10,000 lower than the prior week – which was a welcome sign given this figure’s recent upward trajectory.

02:43 – The final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.5% contraction, caused by an increase in imports ahead of President Trump’s insistence on widespread tariffs.

03:37 – Inflation – excluding food and energy – remained sticky in May, as the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) ticked up to 0.2% month-over-month, and 2.7% year-over-year.

05:01 – Following a run of resiliency, key economic indicators appear to be following suit with the negative sentiment that has been pervasive in the first half of 2025.

09:47 – Fed Funds futures are pricing in a modest 20% chance of a rate cut in July, but expectations of the first rate cut in September appear more solid at 90% odds.

10:22 – Bond yields moved higher in reaction to the PCE inflation data, while the U.S. dollar dipped to its lowest level in three years.

11:58 – Investment grade credit spreads remain unchanged for the week and continue to trade at a very tight range.

13:39 – The stock market is enjoying all-time highs that will likely continue into next month, furthering the trend of July being the best-performing month of the year, based on historical data.

17:56 – The 90-day pause on tariffs announced in April is set to expire on July 9, though recent news suggests this is more of a soft target than a hard deadline.

Additional Resources

What Happens If the TCJA Expires? Why It Matters Now for Your Taxes and Your Legacy

Books and Podcasts for Your 2025 Summer Reading and Listening

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week to report on dampened economic projections, forecast two potential rate cuts in the remainder of the year, and reaffirm the wait-and-see approach that has been a hallmark of Fed policy thus far in 2025. Our experts analyze what came out of the meeting, how investors should respond, and what the future may hold. We also break down the key provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, what comes next in the Senate, and highlight four provisions that may impact you.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management
Joe Velkos, National Tax Director, Key Wealth

02:12 – The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report showed a 0.9% month-over-month dip in May, and April figures were revised to a 0.1% decline.

03:12 – U.S. industrial production fell by 0.2% in May, according to the Federal Reserve.

03:54 – At this week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

04:07 – We look at key economic projections, including a lowered GDP growth median, higher inflation projections, and increased unemployment forecasts.

05:03 – The median FOMC forecast sees two 25 basis points cuts in 2025, though there appears to be disagreement among members with some expecting no rate cuts in 2025, while others expect only a single 25 basis points cut this year.

06:10 – The markets and analysts weigh in on the probability of rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious and confirmed the Fed is positioned to respond as needed, especially considering uncertainty around the impact of upcoming tariffs on inflation.

10:45 – A discussion on who might succeed Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.

12:54 – Uncertainty across several fronts signals a wide range of possible outcomes in international and domestic markets and politics. For investors’ portfolios, diversification will be as important as it’s ever been.

15:14 – Joe Velkos, National Tax Director for Key Wealth, joins us to walk through the “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed by the House of Representatives on May 22.

19:07 – The bill faces opposition in the Senate, including among Republicans, making it unlikely that the bill will remain unchanged or that it will be passed before July 4th, as is President Trump’s goal.

20:18 – We highlight four key provisions of the bill: an increase to the maximum state local tax deduction, an increase to the lifetime gift and estate tax exemption, restoring the bonus depreciation for business owners, and the new proposed elimination of tax on tips and overtime pay.

Additional Resources

Watch the replay of our June 11 National Call

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In this week's episode, Ather Bajwa, Managing Director of Multi-Strategy Research, joins us to deliver a masterclass in private credit – what it is, why it’s important, and what to consider before investing. We also unpack new surveys and reports across a variety of topics including unemployment, inflation, and volatility. As usual, we look at where the markets are in light of the global and national news of the day, such as increasing conflict in the Middle East and the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

Ather Bajwa, Managing Director of Multi-Strategy Research

00:23 – The PGA U.S. Open tries to provide a bright spot during a week of somber news from around the globe, including the passing of Beach Boys’ keyboardist Brian Wilson.

01:50 – Initial weekly unemployment claims remain stable from the previous week.

02:18 – The Consumer Price Index shows mixed stories amid persistent inflation; the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% stays elusive.

03:23 – The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates at next week’s FOMC meeting.

05:06 – Escalating tensions in the Middle East have a negligible downside effect on a stock marketing experiencing all-time highs.

07:33 – A University of Michigan survey of consumers and an American Association of Individual Investors survey indicate an overall improving attitude toward the economy, despite an uptick in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX).

10:59 – An introductory overview of the trending private credit market.

15:02 – Why private credit is becoming increasingly popular, and what changes we’re seeing in the quality of participants.

17:35 – The advantages and considerations of private credit, and what to consider before making this investment.

Additional Resources

Key Questions: What Tax Proposals Are in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' That All Taxpayers Should Be Aware Of?

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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