In this week's episode, our experts discuss recent market activity, economic data delays due to the recent government shutdown, and the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut. The Fed’s decision was marked by rare dissent, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and future policy direction, with only one rate cut projected for 2026. We analyze the implications for credit markets, the US dollar, and the evolving role of artificial intelligence in corporate strategy, noting shifts in tech stock performance and the importance of distinguishing winners and losers in the AI space. The conversation also draws parallels to past market bubbles, emphasizing the value of diversification and caution as the year ends. Be sure to review our 2026 Outlook: Managing Wealth in an Age of Massive Disruption and Profound Change to see what key themes we believe will most impact the economy in 2026.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:27 - Recent market activity is discussed, including delays in economic data due to a government shutdown, updates on unemployment claims, and the job openings report.

03:26 - Cindy Honcharenko summarizes the Fed’s decision to lower rates for the third time in 2025, the rare split vote among Committee members, and implications for inflation and the labor market.

08:10 - The panel analyzes the Fed’s outlook, credit spreads, risk appetite, and the importance of understanding why the Fed is cutting rates.

13:29 - Discussion in recent trends in the US dollar, commodity prices, and the impact on corporate America.

15:45 - The panel covers the impact of AI on stock performance, recent news from Oracle and Broadcom, and the evolving tech landscape.

Additional Resources

Read: 2026 Outlook: Managing Wealth in an Age of Massive Disruption and Profound Change

Rewatch: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change

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On this week’s episode, a busy week of mixed economic signals—initial jobless claims hit a very low 191,000 while ADP reported a -32,000 decline in private payrolls—and a split economy where ISM Manufacturing remains in contraction as Services continue to expand. With a delayed September PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) arriving today, just before next week’s FOMC meeting, markets are leaning toward a 25 bp “risk management” cut as Treasury yields hover in a 4.05–4.15% range and auctions resume. Looking ahead to 2026, the team expects continued momentum without a recession, a need for discernment in AI rather than bubble fears, a potentially more dovish Fed posture amid leadership changes, a strong first half for equities, and a steady emphasis on diversification through debt concerns and midterm-election noise.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:37 - Labor Market & Economy Split: Initial claims ~191,000 and below 225,000 for three weeks; BLS jobs report delayed to Dec 16; ADP shows -32,000 private payrolls—cooling, ISM Manufacturing remains in contraction (multi-year) while Services continue expanding—highlighting a bifurcated economy.

3:47 - Inflation & Fed setup: September PCE is the last read before the FOMC; markets price ~95% odds of a 25 bp cut, with dot‑plot dissents crucial for the 2026 rate path.

07:16 - Rates & Auctions: 10‑year Treasury trading ~4.05–4.15% with dip‑buying; auctions restart next week ($58 billion 3‑yr, $39 billion 10‑yr, $22 billion 30‑yr).

09:47 - 2026 Outlook Highlights: Momentum without recession; AI requires discernment (ecosystems forming, winners vs. losers); possible dovish tilt at the Fed amid leadership changes; equities set up for a strong first half with potential mid‑year inflation‑related volatility; stay diversified through debt/deficit concerns and midterm‑election uncertainty.

Additional Resources

Rewatch: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change

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With the historic government shutdown behind us, we dig back into key economic data captured over the duration of the shutdown: highlights include a modest improvement in housing activity, favorable labor market indicators despite data being somewhat stale, and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve amid uncertainty over December rate cuts. Equity markets showed heightened volatility, with strong earnings failing to sustain momentum, suggesting potential consolidation through year-end. Fixed income markets remain highly sensitive to Fed commentary, reflecting divergent views among policymakers. We also take a walk down memory lane to our 2025 predictions from last year—accurate on most calls—and preview the themes we think will impact 2026: global shifts toward nationalism, AI-driven disruption, and structural changes in financial markets. Please join us on December 3 for our last National Call of the year, when we’ll dig into these topics and take questions from the audience.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

01:53 – Current Market and Economic Updates. Housing market improvement with existing home sales. Labor market stability, with unemployment claims holding and payrolls showing growth. Federal Reserve uncertainty, as October FOMC minutes reveal mixed opinions on rate cuts. Corporate earnings reports, which were strong but met with negative market reactions

08:04 – Equity Market Volatility and Seasonal Trends. Equity markets experienced an “outside day” with sharp reversals despite strong earnings. After strong September–October rallies, November–December may see consolidation rather than a typical year-end rally

11:46 – Fed Policy and Fixed Income Market Outlook. Fixed income markets are highly sensitive to Fed signals amid data gaps from the government shutdown. Divergence among Fed members on rate cuts vs. a pause creates volatility.

15:11 – We look back at our predictions from last year for 2025 trends and assess how accurate they were, and look ahead to our predictions for 2026, which we’ll cover in more depth at our upcoming December 3 webinar (registration link below).

Additional Resources

Attend: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change

Key Questions

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Weekly Investment Brief

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