This week, we explore the economic impact of the ongoing government shutdown, now in its 38th day, and its effect on labor market data and investor sentiment. Our experts discuss alternative employment indicators, strong Q3 earnings, and the influence of AI on market performance. They also examine the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on inflation and interest rate cuts amid data uncertainty. Finally, the conversation touches on the Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs and its potential implications for market volatility.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

02:09 – We analyze available data to fill in the gaps left by unpublished reports due to the ongoing government shutdown. We discuss labor statistics around unemployment, layoffs and job growth and vacancies.

04:55 – The prolonged shutdown is dampening sentiment and creating uncertainty due to missing federal economic data.

07:47 – In equities, we highlight upward momentum in the stock market amid strong earnings reports, while cautioning about speculative froth and a market pullback.

11:45 – We explain the Fed’s dual mandate, inflation concerns, and how mixed signals are affecting bond yields and rate cut expectations.

16:31 – We consider the legal review of Trump-era tariffs and how a ruling could impact Treasury issuance and market volatility.

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Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management, joins the podcast to deliver a report on this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; be sure to read her companion piece, “The Gentle Cut: Easing Without Euphoria” on our Weekly Investment Brief feed. Our discussion tracks how the equity and bond markets behaved leading up to, and following, the meeting, and what to expect going forward. We also touch on this week’s earnings reports from several big tech companies, and what positive trade talks between the United States and China might mean for the future.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:30 – Expected reports on initial unemployment claims, GDP, and inflation were not published this week due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is on track to be the longest in history once it surpasses the 2018 record of 34 days.

03:20 – Coverage of this week’s FOMC meeting, including the 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate, two diametric dissents, the themes and opinions driving that decision, and Chair Powell’s warning that another rate cut in December is far from guaranteed as we see signs of a weakening labor market, elevated inflation, and a lack of data to make informed decisions due to the government shutdown.

05:43 – In reaction to the FOMC meeting and Powell’s assertion that a December rate cut is less likely than previously expected, the markets experienced a bit of a reversal of recent gains that were driven by that expectation.

07:43 – We discuss the five candidates that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed this week. They include three current and former Fed Governors, the current Director of the National Economic Council, and a BlackRock executive.

10:03 – Q3 earnings reports continue to send the stock market higher. The reports from this week’s big companies were Amazon and Alphabet, which were both positive, Apple, which underwhelming but not bad, and Meta and Microsoft, which were both somewhat negative.

12:25 – Positive news from trade talks between the United States and China might reduce the elevated sentiment of geopolitical risk that hit the markets in the first few months of the year on tariff threats, and which has been a question mark ever since.

14:58 – The fixed income market has seen some widening in credit spreads following the FOMC meeting, but generally positive credit conditions and future corporate bond issuance herald a robust November.

Additional Resources

Read: The Gentle Cut: Easing Without Euphoria – 10/29/2025 FOMC Update

Ask: Key Questions: Active ETFs or Mutual Funds: Which Belongs in Your Portfolio?

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Amid the ongoing government shutdown, we look at alternate sources of data to draw a picture of what’s happening with inflation, the labor market, and home sales. Our experts provide insights on the market’s reaction to these reports, the anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week, and the performance of different sectors and asset classes. We also touch on some unusual market dynamics, with low-quality and high-beta stocks outperforming higher-quality companies. Finally, we talk sandwiches in celebration of National Bologna Day.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

02:06 – We highlight three key reports from the week: state-level initial weekly unemployment claims suggest no cause for concern, existing home sales are up slightly, and—despite the government shutdown—the Bureau of Labor Statistics was allowed to compile and release a mixed but overall favorable Consumer Price Index report.

06:00 – Corporations seem to be navigating increased costs due to tariffs by cutting their labor force.

08:50 – The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at next week’s FOMC meeting, with many expecting another 25 basis point cut in December, and several more next year.

10:44 – October continues to be a rally month for the bond market thanks to low market volatility, tight credit spreads, and abundant liquidity.

12:59 – Equities continued to climb and set all-time highs as third quarter earnings season continues, with a spotlight on reports from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta next week.

15:53 – We discuss differences in quality within the equities and bond markets, and posit an apparent shift in principles and heuristics in equities between the pre- and post-pandemic periods.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: Should Investors Get on Board With the Reshoring of American Manufacturing?

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